Independent Estimates of Gaza’s Death Toll Exceed Official Figures

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Buildings destroyed in Gaza, February 2025

Imago/Alamy

According to an independent survey derived from household interviews, about 75,000 individuals (3.6% of the population) in the Gaza Strip lost their lives due to violence between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025. This figure exceeds the Gaza Health Ministry’s estimate of 46,000 violent deaths in the same timeframe.

The research also indicated that approximately 9,000 additional non-violent deaths occurred during this period compared to expected norms in the Gaza Strip. This marks the first estimate of indirect deaths stemming from the conflict that began in October 2023.

The survey involved interviews with 2,000 randomly selected households, which detailed the current and prewar conditions for all household members. “We were present on-site and gathered data directly from the population,” says Debarati Guha-Sapir at Louban Catholic University in Belgium.

The research team encountered restrictions in several locations due to ongoing combat and Israeli evacuation orders, but they believe these limitations likely understate the actual figures rather than exaggerate them.

Guha-Sapir notes that Gaza’s Ministry of Health maintains strict death counting standards. For instance, deaths of unidentified bodies, such as those buried in tunnels, are excluded from the counts. This leads her to conclude that their estimates may closely reflect the true numbers.

Another independent study published in February determined that the death toll up to June 24, 2024, surpassed the official count. However, this study relied on online research and social media obituaries, making Guha-Sapir regard the current research approach as more credible.

Francesco Checchi from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, which conducted the February research, disagrees, stating, “The findings aren’t necessarily more accurate than ours.” Nonetheless, he acknowledges that Guha-Sapir’s research is more recent and includes indirect deaths, providing a more comprehensive mortality picture.

The estimated 9,000 indirect deaths from the conflict is lower than previous estimates. For example, a letter in The Lancet in 2024 suggested that for every direct death, there could be four indirect deaths in Gaza, projecting a death toll of around 186,000.

However, Guha-Sapir points out that the direct death rates observed in countries like Sudan, where extreme poverty and inadequate healthcare predate the conflict, do not apply to Gaza’s context prior to the war. This distinction is crucial in interpreting the current situation.

Nevertheless, changes may occur if conditions continue to deteriorate. “As the situation worsens, the rate of non-violent deaths could escalate quickly,” warns team member Michael Spagat from Royal Holloway University in London.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Top FDA Vaccine Official Resigns, Cites Kennedy’s Accusations of ‘Misinformation and Lies’

Dr. Peter Marks, a top Food and Drug Administration vaccine official, resigned under pressure on Friday, stating that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s aggressive attitude towards vaccines was irresponsible and posed a risk to public health.

“It became clear that truth and transparency are not valued by the secretary, but instead he desires blind confirmation of his misinformation and lies,” Dr. Marks wrote to Sarah Brenner, the agency’s representative. He reiterated his sentiments in an interview, stating, “This individual does not prioritize truth. He prioritizes followership.”

Dr. Marks resigned after being called to the Department of Health and Human Services on Friday afternoon, where he was given the ultimatum of resigning or being terminated, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Dr. Marks headed the Biologics Evaluation and Research Center responsible for approving and monitoring vaccine safety, as well as a variety of other therapies including cell and gene therapy. He was viewed as a steady and reliable presence by many during the pandemic, despite facing criticism for being overly accommodating to businesses seeking approval for treatments with complex evidence of effectiveness.

Ongoing scrutiny of the FDA’s vaccine program clearly placed Dr. Marks at odds with the new health secretary. Since Kennedy took office on February 13th, he has issued a series of directives on vaccine policy. He has alarmed those concerned about his potential to leverage his government authority to advance his long-standing campaign asserting vaccines are highly detrimental despite overwhelming evidence of their life-saving impact worldwide.

“Undermining trust in a well-established vaccine that has met the FDA’s rigorous standards of quality, safety, and efficacy for decades is irresponsible and poses a significant risk to public health and our nation’s well-being and security,” Dr. Marks wrote.

For instance, Kennedy promoted the use of vitamin A as a treatment during a major measles outbreak in Texas, downplaying the importance of vaccination. He has surrounded himself with analysts tied to the anti-vaccine movement and is pursuing studies examining long-debunked theories linking vaccines to autism.

On Thursday, Kennedy announced plans to establish a vaccine injury agency within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He emphasized that this initiative was a top priority and would bring the “gold standard of science” to the federal government.

An HHS spokesperson stated on Friday night that Dr. Marks would no longer have a place at the FDA if he did not commit to transparency.

In his resignation letter, Dr. Marks highlighted the tragic toll of measles amid Kennedy’s lukewarm approach to the urgent vaccination needs among many unvaccinated individuals in Texas and other states.

Dr. Marks pointed out that through widespread vaccine availability, “over 100,000 children who received vaccinations last year in Africa and Asia were saved.”

Dr. Marks expressed his willingness to address Kennedy’s vaccine safety and transparency concerns in public forums and through collaboration with national experts in science, engineering, and medicine, which he was rebuffed.

“I have exhausted all efforts to work with them to restore confidence in vaccines,” Dr. Marks stated in an interview. “It became evident that this was not their goal.”

With that, Dr. Marks bid farewell to the FDA.

“His leadership has been instrumental in driving medical innovation and ensuring life-saving treatments reach those in need,” stated Ellen V. Sigal, founder of the cancer research advocacy group Friends and a close associate of Dr. Marks. His departure, she noted, “will leave significant gaps.”

Dr. Marks guided the agency and its external advisors on the type of evidence required to pilot the FDA’s vaccine program amid the tumultuous year of the coronavirus pandemic and expedite emergency authorizations for vaccines developed under the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed.

In June 2022, he urged an external expert panel to consider the risks the virus posed to children under five years old, leading the panel to recommend the vaccine for that age group later that day.

“We must be cautious not to be paralyzed by the number of pediatric deaths due to the overwhelming number of fatalities we are facing here,” Dr. Marks cautioned at the time.

Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert at Baylor College of Medicine, spoke highly of his regular interactions with Dr. Marks during the pandemic, describing him as deeply committed to leveraging science to aid the American populace. “He was a pandemic hero, and it’s truly unfortunate to see him go,” Hotez remarked.

Dr. Marks faced skepticism from some within the FDA, including former members of his own vaccine team. Two senior regulators in the agency’s vaccine office resigned in 2021 over the Biden administration’s efforts to push for the approval of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot.

Kennedy’s call for further investigation into vaccine injuries was met with reservations by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, who noted that such research had been a focal point for decades. “I fear this is an attempt to magnify vaccine harm out of proportion to the actual risk,” Osterholm cautioned.

Dr. Marks shared these concerns, expressing his desire in his letter to mitigate the harm inflicted by the current administration.

“My hope,” he penned, “is that the unprecedented assault on scientific truths that has detrimentally impacted our nation’s public health will cease in the coming years, allowing our citizens to fully benefit from the wide array of medical advancements.”

Source: www.nytimes.com

Senior Official in Ukraine’s Cybersecurity Department Dismissed

Ukraine’s government has fired two top cybersecurity officials following accusations of embezzlement.

The head of the State Special Communications Service of Ukraine (SSSCIP) Yuri Shtykhor and the deputy head Viktor Zola (pictured), who served as SSSCIP’s deputy chairman and chief digital transformation officer, have both been dismissed by the government, a cabinet official said. I made it.Official Taras Melnychuk In a public post on Telegram.

Melnychuk did not give a reason for his dismissal.

SSSCIP confirmed in a statement Ukraine’s Cabinet announced on Monday the appointment of Dmytro Makovsky as acting head of SSSCIP due to the ongoing investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU).Nabu said in a press release Several members of the SSSCIP senior leadership have been accused of misappropriating and embezzling more than $62 million in state funds.

When asked for comment, Zola told TechCrunch: I will defend my name and reputation in court. ”

Mr. Sichhor could not immediately be reached for comment.

Reuters first reported departure. SSSCIP did not immediately respond to a request for comment. It is unclear whether the U.S. cybersecurity agency CISA, a close partner of the Ukrainian government and SSSCIP, was aware of the layoffs or was notified in advance. A CISA spokesperson did not respond as of press time.

U.S. officials have long touted the close ties between SSSCIP and Zola in particular.Zola and CISA Director Jen Easterly Memorandum of Understanding signed between the US and Ukrainian governments Several months have passed since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Zola was recently in the United States to give a keynote speech at Cyberwarcon, a cybersecurity conference.Earlier this year, Zora and Easterly Interviewed together on stage at the Black Hat Security Conference In Las Vegas.

More soon…

Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai contributed reporting.

Source: techcrunch.com