Global emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, hitting a record high as hydrocarbon consumption accelerates, as per the annual Global Carbon Budget report.

On a more optimistic note, emissions from China, the leading emitter globally, seem to be stabilizing and may have peaked, offering hope that worldwide emissions may soon follow the same trend.

“We are not yet in a situation where emissions are decreasing at the pace required to combat climate change,” states Corinne Le Quéré, a researcher at the University of East Anglia. “However, it is encouraging to see emissions growth in China and India beginning to slow.”

The report estimates that humanity will emit 38.1 billion tonnes of fossil CO2 this year, comparable to the emissions from driving 9 billion gasoline cars annually. While renewable energy sources are replacing hydrocarbons in several regions, they remain insufficient to meet the rising energy demands, most of which continue to be fulfilled by fossil fuels. The consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas is still on the rise this year.

As noted in the report, the Earth is now 1.36 degrees Celsius warmer than before the industrial era. The current emissions trajectory makes it nearly impossible to keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement, according to the report’s authors. Exceeding this limit substantially increases the risks of severe climate impacts, including irreversible changes like ice sheet collapses.

Last month, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged world leaders at the COP30 climate summit that surpassing 1.5°C of warming seems likely, urging humanity to reduce emissions and minimize this overshoot.

While global CO2 emissions are expected to decline slightly in 2025 when factoring in carbon absorption by oceans and land ecosystems, this is primarily attributed to the conclusion of the warm El Niño event, which hindered photosynthesis in major carbon sinks like tropical forests.

As the climate continues to warm, these sinks are becoming less effective at absorbing CO2, as highlighted in a separate study conducted by the team behind the Global Carbon Budget Report.

Nonetheless, the overall rise in emissions over the past decade has been slower compared to the previous decade, notes Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, one of the report’s authors. “There are positive trends,” he asserts. “When looking at the growth rate, it’s significantly lower now.”

The report projects a 0.4% increase in emissions from China in 2025. An analysis by Carbon Brief illustrates that emissions have remained flat through the third quarter of this year. Solar power generation in the country has surged by 46% year-on-year, which has helped to mitigate the increased electricity demand. Meanwhile, rising electric vehicle sales have contributed to reduced pollution in the transport sector, although a spike in the production of oil-heavy chemicals and plastics has led to an uptick in static electricity emissions overall.

The think tank “Ember” mentions in another report that, thanks to the solar power boom, China’s fossil fuel electricity generation declined by 1.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating “structural changes within the country’s electricity system.” India is also experiencing a significant increase in solar and wind energy installations, which fell by 3.3% during this period.

Enver stated that for the first time since the onset of COVID-19, global fossil electricity generation, excluding transportation, industry, and other sectors, will see no increase in 2025.