The deadly floods in Texas have ignited fresh concerns regarding cuts made to the National Weather Service by the Trump administration, which has resulted in fewer warnings and left countless individuals scrambling for safety.
By Sunday evening, at least 79 fatalities had been reported, with many more unaccounted for after a sudden rise in the Texas Hill Country, a region infamously dubbed “Flash Flood Alley.”
Hours following the early morning floods on Friday, some Texas officials voiced their discontent with the NWS, claiming the rainfall predictions were understated. Councillor Jack Kimble, D-Calif., shared on X Saturday his critical remarks, which were in response to a post by Vice President JD Vance. On Sunday, President Donald Trump dismissed the notion of investigating whether NWS cuts contributed to the disaster, while the White House emphasized that he “hates” the idea that the cuts are linked to this tragedy.
Independent meteorologists and former NWS officials have stated that the warnings issued in anticipation of the floods were as timely and accurate as possible given the available real-time weather data. They noted that predicting extreme rainfall and flash floods in short timeframes is inherently challenging, making it difficult to ensure emergency warnings reach those most in danger.
“The forecasts were accurate. The warnings were worthy,” remarked Wisconsin meteorologist Chris Vaguski. “The challenge always lies in ensuring the message reaches the people.”
Despite concerns over leadership shortages in the NWS due to increased staffing gaps, meteorologists do not believe that an understaffed office was a significant factor in the tragic outcomes.
Tom Fahy, Legislative Director of the National Weather Service Employee Union, indicated that the San Antonio Weather Office lacked two vital permanent positions: science officers (responsible for training and implementing new technologies) and warning coordination meteorologists (who coordinate with media and serve as the office’s spokesperson). However, they have staff positioned in leadership roles. Overall, Fahy reported that there were sufficient meteorologists on hand to manage the incident.
“WFO” [weather forecasting offices], Fahy noted on Saturday, expressed concern regarding the absence of unfilled senior positions and effective leadership.
In a statement, the National Weather Service expressed its “grief over the tragic loss of life in Kerr County.” Although the agency did not address staffing issues, it provided a comprehensive timeline of alerts that were issued.
Some officials in Texas have suggested that the forecasts from the National Weather Center did not adequately convey the storm’s threat, while others acknowledged the agency’s timely alerts.
“The initial forecast received from the National Weather Service on Wednesday anticipated 4-8 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 3-6 inches in the Hill Country,” stated W. Nim Kid, chief of Texas emergency management, during a press conference on Friday. “The actual rainfall in these specific areas exceeded our predictions.”
According to a timeline from the National Water Center, Kerrville, Texas, and surrounding areas were at risk of flash flooding on Thursday, July 3. The NWS Austin/San Antonio issued flood monitoring alerts at 1:18 PM on Thursday, which continued through Friday morning. An emergency flash flood warning was released at 1:14 AM in Kerr County.
Travis County Judge Andy Brown commended the National Weather Service for its warnings, while Eric Carter, the county’s emergency management coordinator, described the service’s efforts as “exceptionally proactive.”
The agency highlighted that it issued flash flood warnings at 1:14 AM on Friday, categorizing the threat as “substantial” or “catastrophic,” and activated wireless emergency alerts on mobile devices.
“The flash flood warning was issued on the evening of July 3 and early morning of July 4, providing over three hours of preliminary lead time,” the statement read.
Concerns regarding staffing and performance arose following the Trump administration’s dismissal of National Weather Service employees this spring, who were offered early retirement and buyouts. By early June, the NWS had lost around 600 personnel, resulting in many seasoned employees exiting and leaving newer or less experienced staff members.
Some NWS offices have seen staffing reductions exceeding 40%, with agents pressed to take on crucial roles in forecasting operations. Consequently, at least eight offices ceased 24-hour operations this spring, with some unable to issue weather warnings.
In May, over 40% of the nation’s weather forecast offices reported staffing rates exceeding 20%. These cuts prompted all living former NWS supervisors to express their distress over staffing levels and ongoing budget reductions through letters.
“Our greatest fear is that insufficient staffing in weather offices could lead to unnecessary fatalities. This concern resonates deeply with those on the frontlines of forecasting, as well as with individuals relying on their expertise,” they articulated.
Compared to many forecast offices nationwide, Texas offices are relatively well-staffed.
Fahy mentioned that the San Antonio/Austin weather office operates with 11 meteorologists, which is down six from the usual full staff of 26. Warnings issued in central Texas indicate that four positions remain vacant at the standard staff level of 23. The office has been without a weather officer for an extended period and lacks senior hydrologists as well.
“In San Angelo, we have no hydrologists, which poses a significant issue,” Fahy explained, noting that hydrologists are essential for analyzing stream flow and managing flood responses.
Mayor Dalton Rice of Kerrville stated that the city will investigate whether emergency notifications are adequate to alert residents effectively.
“We recognize that questions are being raised regarding emergency notifications, but it’s premature to speculate. Our local partners are dedicated to thoroughly reviewing the events and systems involved,” Rice stated at a press conference on Sunday. “In due time, we will take decisive measures to bolster our preparedness moving forward, ensuring the safety of all community members.”
An independent meteorologist, who has criticized NWS staffing and budget cuts previously, stated that federal meteorologists on-site provided timely warnings.
Alan Gerald, former director of analysis at NOAA’s National Intense Storm Institute, noted in a blog post that the Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office effectively communicated risks swiftly, despite experiencing leadership shortages.
“While it is less than ideal to have these positions vacant for extended periods, it can negatively affect operations on some level,” Gerald wrote. “However, based on the actual warning services provided by the NWS during the incident, they performed admirably, delivering the expected levels of warnings and alerts for events of this nature.”
Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza indicated there was no evidence suggesting that staffing issues or budget cuts contributed to the tragedy.
Wisconsin meteorologist Vaguski noted the inherent difficulties in predicting flash floods and extreme rainfall.
“Quantitative precipitation forecasting, or QPF, is among the most challenging tasks for a meteorologist. It’s crucial to determine the right location, the right volume, and the right timing,” Vaguski elaborated. “They were issuing alerts because they understood the significance of the event.”
Vaguski explained that remnants of the tropical storm transferred to Texas brought tropical moisture that fueled severe thunderstorms, resulting in extreme rainfall across central Texas.
He also added that the predictors indicated increased concerns aligned with findings from weather models.
Texas Hill Country is often labeled “Flash Flood Alley” due to its terrain, which exacerbates river swelling rapidly. Understanding precise rainfall locations is key to predicting flood impacts.
“Forecasts for this week predicted 4-7 and even 5-9 inches of rain, with some models suggesting even higher amounts. Unfortunately, science has yet to evolve to the point where we can accurately predict rainfall to a precise latitude and longitude,” he added.
Predicting when the heaviest rainfall will occur and when flooding starts is particularly challenging for forecasters, Vaguski noted.
“Receiving severe weather alerts in the middle of the night presents significant challenges. Historically, most tornado and flood fatalities occur during this period when people are asleep. It’s difficult to detect tornadoes and rising water,” Vaguski expressed. “Did people activate emergency alerts on their devices?”
Addressing the reduction and cutbacks at the National Weather Service, Vaguski asserted that he doesn’t believe better staffing would have notably hindered the tragedy.
“These are crucial positions that need filling,” he remarked, adding, “but they likely did not significantly contribute to the incident.”
Vaguski indicated that substantial improvement is needed in quantitative precipitation forecasting to help forecasters identify threats earlier. However, such advancements are threatened by potential NOAA funding cuts, he cautioned.
“The major concern is if the latest budget proposal is approved by Congress as the administration wishes, it will shut down all NOAA research labs vital for enhancing predictions.
