Uncertainty Toolkit
Sam Conniff and Catherine Templer-Lewis, The Bluebird (UK, now US, April)

Few individuals have experienced the extreme stress that fighter pilot John Peters underwent during the Gulf War. In January 1991, after completing a critical mission, Peters’ aircraft was hit by an enemy missile in the desert vicinity of Basra, Iraq. Despite the chaos, Peters and navigator John Nichol managed a brief escape before being apprehended by Iraqi forces.

While imprisoned, Peters endured harsh interrogation and was constantly haunted by the thought of dying in isolation. Nonetheless, he persevered. After his retirement from the Air Force, he pursued a degree in business administration and now excels as a motivational speaker.

Can we draw lessons from his resilience to manage our own stress? This is the foundation of the Uncertainty Toolkit, crafted by Sam Conniff and cognitive scientist Catherine Templer-Lewis. Peters is joined by a diverse group of “uncertainty experts,” including former gang leaders, refugees, and those overcoming addiction. Their collective wisdom, combined with empirical research, is paving the way for innovative strategies to handle the anxiety arising from unpredictable situations.

Conniff and Templer-Lewis introduce an engaging acronym—FFS—to illustrate the primary impacts of uncertainty: fear, fog, and stagnation. This framework illustrates how we grapple with the fear of the unknown, confusion caused by unpredictability, and immobility when faced with necessary action. The toolkit offers systematic exercises designed to conquer each hurdle.

This concept holds broad appeal; the authors previously tested it in collaboration with researchers at University College London, engaging over 20,000 participants through an interactive online documentary. Although the specifics of the research methodology and outcomes remain unclear, it seems to have positively transformed many participants’ perceptions of uncertainty from largely negative to predominantly constructive.

Despite its promise, reading this book can sometimes be tedious. It often reiterates concepts using nearly identical language, occasionally on the same page. The insights from uncertainty experts feel somewhat diluted, as demonstrated by Peters’ story, which ultimately loses impact when he is portrayed wishing to be remembered simply as a “good man” despite facing execution.

Nonetheless, the book is filled with effective strategies for regulating your emotions. Alongside familiar techniques like mindfulness and yogic breathing, readers will discover reflective exercises aimed at identifying avoidance behaviors, balancing fear of failure with the potential for regret, and reframing anxiety as excitement. The authors encourage readers to cultivate gratitude, clarify their values, and reconnect with their communities, all of which contribute to breaking free from the FFS state that often characterizes our response to uncertainty.

The book’s most insightful takeaway pertains to intuition. Our emotional instincts serve as a compass for decision-making, especially when facing information overload. However, this intuition can easily be overshadowed by our mental and physiological states. Thus, the authors advise checking in with ourselves for the most common emotions that can cloud our judgment: hunger, anger, anxiety, loneliness, and fatigue. This acronym can be remembered as HALT.

Additionally, Conniff and Templer-Lewis challenge stereotypes, urging us to broaden our understanding by engaging with those whose views diverge from our own. This advice is valuable for anyone seeking a clearer perspective on the world.

By the conclusion, I found the authors’ approach compelling, even though they compromised their scientific authority by referencing the prophecies of mystic Baba Vanga in “Balkan Nostradamus.” They claim she forecasted that 2030 would be marked by climate change and global conflict, which I found to be exactly the type of fear, fog, and stagnation they caution against. Nonetheless, if you can overlook these missteps, this book offers an empowering and enriching read.

David Robson is a writer. His latest book is Law of Connection