Recent reports indicate an increasing risk of assaults on submarine cables supported by Russia and China, which facilitate international internet traffic, particularly amid ongoing tensions in the Baltic Sea and Taiwan.

Submarine cables represent 99% of global intercontinental data traffic and have experienced various disruptive incidents allegedly tied to state activities in the past 18 months.

A study conducted by the US cybersecurity firm Recorded Future has highlighted nine incidents expected in the Baltic Sea and near Taiwan in 2024 and 2025, suggesting a predictive pattern for further harmful actions.

According to the analysis, while genuine accidents could lead to damage to many submarine cables, the situations in the Baltic Sea and Taiwan suggest a rise in malicious actions attributed to Russia and China.

“The operations linked to Russia in the Baltic region and China in the Western Pacific are likely to increase as tensions elevate,” the firm noted.

The report points to several incidents, including the disconnection of two submarine cables from Lithuania to Sweden in November, with accusations directed at an anchor dragged by a Chinese vessel. Also in December, a Russian oil tanker was detained after severing cables between Finland and Estonia.

In Taiwan, recent incidents include cable damage caused by a Chinese-operated cargo vessel zigzagging over the line to Peng Island in February. One month prior, another Chinese vessel was suggested as a likely source of damage to the Taiwan-US cable.

The analysis states, “While deterring state-sponsored sabotage linked to the Baltic and Taiwan incidents is challenging, such activities align with the strategic goals of Russia and China, as well as observed operations and their existing deep-sea capabilities.”

Recorded Future emphasizes that successful attacks on multiple cables are likely to result in prolonged disruptions, typically requiring intervention in deeper waters and likely involving state-level threat actors due to the complexities of accessing these sites. Such actions may occur prior to a full-scale conflict, the report suggests.

The firm noted 44 distinct cable damages have been recorded over the past 18 months. A significant portion is attributed to “unclear causes,” while nearly a third remains unexplained, with 16% due to seismic activity or other natural events.

Analysts believe that targeting subsea cables presents a strategic advantage, as such actions can disguise as accidental damage or implicate vessels without direct connections to any suspected attackers.

To mitigate the risk of incidents damaging multiple cables and resulting in “long-term connectivity issues,” Recorded Future recommends enhanced cable monitoring, improved security measures, and robust stress testing of subsea infrastructure.

Notably, despite incidents in the Baltic and Taiwan regions, the most severe cases unfolded elsewhere. In February last year, a missile from Houthi forces struck a ship’s anchor, severely disrupting communications in the Middle East. A month later, in West Africa, an underwater landslide caused significant issues, followed by another critical incident off the coast of South Africa in May 2024 related to cable drifting.

The implications of the Red Sea and African incidents reveal that the longest-lasting disruptions occur in regions with limited alternative cable options and insufficient repair capabilities, irrespective of the specific causes.

In contrast, two cable incidents in the Baltic Sea last November had minimal repercussions due to their relatively low impact and the resilience of European internet infrastructure. However, the report highlights that three EU island nations—Malta, Cyprus, and Ireland—are more susceptible due to their heavy dependence on submarine cables for global communications.

The recent strategic defense assessment from the UK government acknowledged the potential threats to submarine cables and recommended a greater and more coordinated role for the Royal Navy in safeguarding the submarine infrastructure that carries vital information, energy, and goods relied upon by citizens.