Approximately 2% of the world’s fish species, or about 500 species, are known to change sex at some point during their adult life.
Some species, like the black-spotted fish (as shown above), switch from female to male periodically. Others, such as clownfish, can change from male to female, while species like coral-dwelling gobies switch genders based on environmental conditions.
This phenomenon is distinct in fish because, unlike mammals and birds, many fish species do not have their sex determined by sex chromosomes.
Environmental cues trigger changes in gene activity, influencing the production of essential hormones and enzymes. A key enzyme, aromatase, plays a critical role by converting male hormones into female ones and changing gonads into ovaries.
Social dynamics can also act as environmental signals. Clark clownfish, for instance, live among sea anemones in small groups during the breeding season. If a breeding female passes away, the largest subordinate male is known to change sex and assume her role.
Changes in water quality can signal a shift in gender as well.
Research indicates that pollutants entering rivers can induce male fish to exhibit female traits, such as spawning behaviors.
Furthermore, a 2008 study found that a mere 1 to 2 degrees Celsius increase in water temperature could skew the sex ratio of certain fish towards a higher male count.
Some sex changes are advantageous; for example, clownfish evolve to switch genders as a survival strategy to enhance reproduction. However, human activities are disrupting natural sex change processes.
Polluting rivers or warming oceans presents severe risks to future aquatic species.
This article addresses the question posed by Alex Jackson via email: “How can animals switch gender?”
For inquiries, feel free to email us at:questions@sciencefocus.com or connect with usFacebook,Twitter, orInstagramand include your name and location.
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Solar geoengineering: A solution to save ice sheets with potential risks
Credit: Martin Zwick/REDA/Universal Images Group (via Getty Images)
Research indicates that an abrupt halt to solar geoengineering may lead to a “termination shock,” causing a rapid temperature rise that could make the initiative more expensive than continuing without intervention.
With greenhouse gas emissions on the rise, there’s increasing attention on solar radiation management (SRM), which cools the planet by dispersing sulfur dioxide aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight.
However, sustained solar geoengineering is crucial for centuries; otherwise, the hidden warming could quickly reemerge. This rebound, referred to as termination shock, leaves little time for adaptation and could catalyze critical climate events such as ice sheet collapses.
According to Francisco Estrada, researchers from the National Autonomous University of Mexico assessed the risk of inaction on climate change compared to solar geoengineering approaches.
Projections suggest that if emissions aren’t curtailed, temperatures may soar by an average of 4.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, leading to approximately $868 billion in economic damages. In contrast, a hypothetical stratospheric aerosol injection program initiated in 2020 could limit warming to around 2.8°C, potentially reducing these costs by half.
Nevertheless, if the aerosol program ends abruptly in 2030, resulting in a temperature rebound of 0.6 degrees Celsius over eight years, economic damages could surpass $1 trillion by century’s end. While estimations vary, Estrada states, “The principle remains consistent: the termination shock will be significantly worse than inaction.”
Estrada’s research innovatively gauges damage not only by global warming levels but also by the speed at which temperatures rise, according to Gernot Wagner from Columbia University.
Wagner warns that solar geoengineering may be riskier than it appears. “This highlights a critical concern,” he notes.
Make Sunsets, a Silicon Valley startup, has already launched over 200 sulfur dioxide-filled balloons into the stratosphere and offers emission offsets for sale. A recent launch in Mexico prompted governmental threats to ban geoengineering activities.
Israel’s Stardust Co., Ltd. has secured $75 million in funding and is lobbying the U.S. government to explore solar geoengineering options. A recent survey revealed that two-thirds of scientists anticipate large-scale SRM could occur this century, as reported by New Scientist.
According to studies, it would take at least 100 aircraft to cool the Earth by 1°C through aerosol injection, releasing millions of tons of sulfur dioxide annually, unimpeded by geopolitical conflicts or unforeseen events.
Presently, major nations like the United States are undermining global climate cooperation, but researchers highlight that such collaboration is essential to prevent termination shock and potentially realize the benefits of SRM.
Analysis of varying parameters suggests that aerosol injections could mitigate climate damage only if the annual probability of cessation is extremely low. In scenarios allowing for a gradual stop over 15 years, SRM might be viable.
If countries successfully reduce emissions, only minimal geoengineering cooling may be necessary, rendering aerosol injection beneficial with a maximum outage probability of 10%. This indicates a potential 99.9% chance of failure over a century, but manageable temperature recovery remains plausible in low emissions scenarios.
This need for international cooperation reveals what Estrada describes as the “governance paradox” of solar geoengineering: “We must ensure extremely low failure rates and possess effective governance to mitigate adverse outcomes.” However, he adds, “If we effectively reduce greenhouse gases, the need for SRM diminishes.”
These findings challenge the notion that solar geoengineering might lead to irresponsible development, as some have suggested, according to Chad Baum from Aarhus University. Funding for this new research was provided by the Degrees Initiative, aimed at supporting geoengineering studies in vulnerable low-income nations.
Baum stated, “We intend to complete all stages of this study, incorporating feedback from impacted communities.”
Despite this, Wagner emphasizes the imperative for further exploration into geoengineering’s trade-offs given the rise in emissions and their consequences: “We are approaching a critical juncture.”
Later that year, climatologist Peter Stott from the British Met Office found himself in Italy during one of Europe’s most severe heatwaves. Instead of enjoying a vacation, he faced temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, a shocking experience for him.
Both Allen and Stott were intent on understanding climate change’s role in extreme weather events. Stott utilized existing climate models to simulate two scenarios of the 2003 heatwave: one reflecting the climate of that year and another devoid of human-induced warming.
They ran extensive model simulations and concluded that in their landmark 2004 paper in Nature, human activities have more than doubled the likelihood of experiencing a heatwave similar to that of 2003.
This groundbreaking work marked the inception of a new climate science field, which began to identify human influences on extreme weather events. Soon analyses emerged for diverse phenomena, from heatwaves to severe droughts and storms.
However, a significant challenge remained—post-event analyses often took months or years to determine the influence of climate change.
To address this, researchers, including Friederike Otto from Imperial College London, founded World Weather Attribution in 2014. This initiative facilitates swift analysis of extreme weather events, quantifying the probable impacts of climate change, with results frequently released within days.
This has dramatically altered reporting on such events globally, enabling news outlets to directly attribute deadly weather phenomena to climate change and emphasizing the real-world consequences of rising emissions.
As Otto stated, “When we began this work a decade ago, scientists and journalists maintained that individual weather events could not be blamed on climate change. That perspective has shifted immensely.”
This advancement also supports climate change litigation, with causal investigations providing evidence in numerous lawsuits against polluters worldwide. In 2022, the United Nations announced a new International Loss and Damage Fund, paving the way for climate change compensation.
In 2003, Allen queried: “Could litigation for climate change be feasible?” Thanks to developments in attribution science, the answer is now a definitive “yes.”
Environmental and social challenges are urgent, yet many nations grapple with underfunding and political stalemates. Imagine if we could innovate ways to tackle these issues effectively and economically without the burden of partisan politics!
Nearly two decades ago, we and our colleagues in behavioral sciences considered this a real possibility. We proposed a sophisticated idea: social issues often stem from individuals making “poor” choices, whether it’s unhealthy eating, smoking, or polluting the environment. Traditional approaches rely on taxes or bans, but our fresh perspective aimed to encapsulate a gentler, psychologically aware method. By rethinking how choices are presented, we could encourage healthier and more sustainable options, while still allowing access to alternatives.
“Nudges” were viewed as potential solutions, suggesting that societal issues could be mitigated through slight shifts in individual behavior. For instance, to combat obesity, we might reduce portion sizes and reposition salad bars at the forefront of cafeterias. To address climate concerns, why not default homeowners to renewable energy options?
Initially, it appeared we were on the verge of a nudge revolution. A team of researchers, including ourselves, sought to identify subtle modifications in “choice architecture” that could spur behavioral changes and ultimately result in major societal impacts. This presents a golden opportunity to leverage psychological insights for transformative progress.
Fast forward almost 20 years and progress remains stagnated, leaving many disappointed. When nudges do yield results, the effects are minimal, short-lived, and often fail to scale. Furthermore, emphasizing individual behavior as the primary lens for societal problems may inadvertently empower various corporate entities to resist the more traditional yet effective policy measures like taxation and regulation that reshuffle the foundational rules and incentives driving societal actions, jeopardizing their interests.
In hindsight, we realize this outcome shouldn’t come as a surprise, though it certainly was at the time. Given that human psychology has remained fundamentally unchanged, the social dilemmas we face arise from systemic shifts—not individual choices. Events like 200 years of fossil fuel reliance or the surge of ultra-processed foods over recent decades are to blame, and individuals alone cannot resolve issues like carbon emissions or unhealthy eating patterns. Moreover, a focus on individual behaviors risks distracting policymakers and the public from recognizing the need for systemic reforms and policy-driven solutions.
Correctly identifying the problem might lead to companies resistant to regulations fortifying individual-level responses that seem effective but fall short. This phenomenon is already observable, as evidenced by attention-grabbing concepts like our personal “carbon footprint.” This branding didn’t emerge from environmental movements or NGOs but originated from a massive PR campaign by BP, one of the globe’s leading fossil fuel corporations, in the early 2000s.
No matter the social or environmental challenge at hand, those opposing comprehensive change often redirect the responsibility back to individuals. As behavioral scientists, we must avoid this trap moving forward.
Behavioral scientist Nick Chater and George Loewenstein explore these themes in their new book, On You (WH Allen), released on January 27th.
Shorebirds serve as important indicators of coastal and wetland ecosystems, and their widespread distribution highlights their ecological significance. Although wading shorebirds are infrequently found in the fossil record, a remarkable collection of shorebird fossils has emerged from Pleistocene deposits at the Naracoorte Caves World Heritage Site in South Australia. Recent studies on these fossils provide insights into the evolution of wetland environments, revealing that flourishing habitats vanished with climate shifts as far back as 60,000 years ago. The research links a drying phase around 17,000 years ago to the decline of many of the nine or more shorebird species discovered in one of the Naracoorte Caves.
Red knot (Calidris canutus), near Grinet, Brittany, France. Image credit: Stephan Sprinz / CC BY 4.0.
“Shorebirds are rare in the fossil record, making the discovery of numerous shorebird fossils in Blanche Cave surprising,” stated PhD candidate Karl Lenser from Flinders University.
“This finding suggests that wetlands and tidal flats—vital feeding grounds for plovers, sandpipers, and other shorebirds—were more prevalent during the last Ice Age.”
Currently, climate change and habitat loss are contributing to the decline of Australia’s shorebird populations.
Gaining insights into how these species adapted to historical climate changes may be essential for forecasting their future.
Lenser and his team were particularly intrigued by the remains of the Plains Wanderer, an endangered bird found mostly in Victoria and New South Wales, which was among the most common fossils identified in this study.
Out of approximately 300 examined bones, more than half were identified as those of Plains Wanderers.
“Today’s Plains Wanderers are selective about their habitats; however, other fossils from Naracoorte indicate that the area once featured wooded environments—starkly different from the treeless grassland they inhabit today,” Lenser explained.
Naracoorte represents the only fossil site in Australia with such a substantial population of Plains Wanderers, indicating a significant decline in their numbers over the last 14,000 years due to habitat restriction.
Dr. Trevor Worthy from Flinders University highlighted the uniqueness of this sandpiper fossil sample, noting its representation of migratory species that travel from the Northern Hemisphere to spend winters in Australia.
“This includes three species from the Calidris genus and the Latham Sandpiper (Galinago hardwickii),” he added.
“Fossil assemblages also include blue-bellied plovers that migrate from Australia to New Zealand for breeding.”
“Fossil evidence shows that two young birds flew approximately 2,000 km from New Zealand and were captured by owls near Blanche Cave in Naracoorte,” Dr. Worthy explained.
“There remains much to uncover about Australia’s bird species from the last Ice Age, and fossils from sites like Naracoorte are crucial for filling in these knowledge gaps,” Lenser noted.
“Naracoorte Caves holds a 500,000-year record of biodiversity in Southeast South Australia,” stated Dr. Liz Reid from the University of Adelaide.
“As this study clearly demonstrates, caves offer a glimpse into pre-European landscapes, providing valuable information for the conservation of endangered species today.”
Visitors to Naracoorte Caves can explore the excavation site and delve into the science behind South Australia’s only World Heritage Site.
Findings have been published in the online journal Old Trogia Electronica about the study.
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Karl M. Lenser et al. 2026. Fossil shorebirds (order: Charadriidae) revealing a Pleistocene wetland trend at Naracoorte Caves, South Australia. Old Trogia Electronica 29 (1): a2; doi: 10.26879/1608
President Donald Trump’s controversial choice to withdraw the United States from key United Nations-affiliated organizations means the country risks losing its significant role in crucial global climate change discussions.
In a sweeping executive order issued on Wednesday, President Trump halted U.S. funding for 66 international bodies, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)—an agreement the U.S. joined in 1992—and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which releases the most authoritative climate reports globally.
According to a post by the White House, these organizations are deemed “no longer in the interest of the United States.”
This action underscores the Trump administration’s retreat from climate action, coinciding with escalating global warming effects, which are leading to more frequent and severe weather disasters across the U.S. Events like wildfires, floods, and hurricanes now inflict tens of billions in damages annually. By 2025, it’s projected that 23 extreme weather events will individually cause damages exceeding $1 billion, totaling approximately $115 billion, according to an analysis from Climate Central.
This withdrawal signifies the Trump administration’s rejection of climate diplomacy, further isolating the United States from the global community’s efforts to reduce warming and mitigate the most severe climate change impacts.
In January 2025, the U.S. is set to finalize its exit from the Paris Agreement, a pivotal accord signed in 2016, where 195 participating countries committed to limiting greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), with a maximum increase of 2 degrees Celsius.
The UNFCCC provided the foundational framework for the Paris Agreement, established in 1992 to identify and tackle the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty was signed by President George Bush after receiving Senate approval with a two-thirds majority vote.
Should the U.S. fully withdraw from the UNFCCC (a process estimated to take a year), it would mark the first instance in history of a country exiting such an agreement. This action could complicate future presidents’ ability to rejoin the Paris Agreement, as reentry requires new Senate approval with a two-thirds majority.
Extracting itself from the UNFCCC would render the United States the only nation without a presence at international climate discussions, as demonstrated by the White House’s decision to forgo an official delegation at the recent COP30 summit in Brazil.
Attendees arrive at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, November 7, 2025. COP 30 Press Office/Anadolu/Getty Images
“Historically, even countries that remained passive at negotiations seldom walked away entirely, as it ensured their input was not disregarded,” stated Christy Ebi, a climate scientist from the University of Washington who has contributed to IPCC reports.
Ebi noted that while past U.S. administrations may have shown limited enthusiasm during discussions, they still tracked proceedings.
“Delegates would listen quietly from the sidelines, but now there’s a complete withdrawal,” she remarked.
The Trump administration has openly criticized the UNFCCC and similar organizations. In a statement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to them as “anti-American and ineffective.”
The United States is set to officially exit the Paris Agreement on January 27, marking nearly a year since the administration initiated the withdrawal process.
However, questions persist about whether President Trump can withdraw from the UNFCCC without Congressional approval.
Gene Hsu, an attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, argues the action is unlawful. “The Constitution clearly outlines the process for joining a treaty with a two-thirds Senate majority but is ambiguous regarding withdrawal,” Suh explained. “We are considering legal action due to the absence of legal precedence for a president unilaterally exiting a Senate-approved treaty.”
The UNFCCC is the global mediator for climate negotiations, organizing the Conference of the Parties (COP) annually to address emissions targets and funding for climate action. The previous year’s conference focused on deforestation challenges and impacts on the Amazon rainforest.
“Hosting such global discussions is akin to managing the Olympics; organizational support is essential,” Ebi said.
Following the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the UNFCCC encountered a budget crisis, prompting Bloomberg Philanthropies, led by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, to intervene financially to sustain operations.
In response, UNFCCC Executive Director Simon Steele asserted that Trump’s withdrawal would “diminish America’s security and prosperity.”
“Similar to the previous Paris Agreement, there remains an opportunity for the United States to re-engage in the future,” Steele remarked.
Throughout his inaugural year, President Trump has targeted climate change through substantial budget cuts, labeling it a “swindle.” His administration has worked to undercut key climate reports, such as the National Climate Assessment, while attempting to diminish the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming.
Former Vice President Al Gore, a dedicated climate activist, commented on X that the Trump administration has “neglected the climate crisis from the outset,” putting Americans and global communities at risk while catering to oil industry interests.
“By withdrawing from the IPCC, UNFCCC, and other vital international collaborations, the Trump administration is undermining decades of carefully cultivated diplomacy, eroding climate science, and instilling global distrust,” Gore concluded.
Homo floresiensis A recent study indicates that Liang Bua, the cave where this diminutive hominin species resided for approximately 140,000 years, was deserted during a significant drought between 61,000 and 55,000 years ago.
Reconstruction of Homo floresiensis. Image credit: Elizabeth Danes.
Homo floresiensis was first identified in 2003 in Liang Bua, Flores Island, Indonesia.
This species, often referred to as hobbits due to their small size, challenged prevailing theories regarding human evolution.
It vanished from the fossil record around 50,000 years ago, but the reasons for its disappearance are still unclear.
“In 2003, excavations in the Liangbua rock trench unveiled the skeletons of a previously unknown small hominid species, Homo floresiensis,” stated Emeritus Professor Mike Gagan and colleagues from the University of Wollongong.
“Originally, the period of occupation was estimated to be between 95,000 and 12,000 years ago, suggesting the possibility of interaction with early modern humans (Homo sapiens), who inhabited islands in Southeast Asia and were contributing to species extinctions.”
“However, following a revision of the stratigraphy and chronology at this site, all Homo floresiensis human bones are now believed to be approximately 100,000 to 60,000 years old.”
“Associated stone artifacts and megafaunal assemblages typically suggest that Homo floresiensis went extinct around 50,000 years ago.”
“The revised timeline indicates they disappeared from the record around 46,000 years ago, coinciding with the arrival of modern humans at Liang Bua, and there was a significant shift in the types of materials used for making stone tools.”
In the study, the authors integrated chemical records from cave stalagmites with isotope data from the fossilized teeth of a pygmy elephant species, Stegodon florensis insularis, which Homo floresiensis hunted.
The findings reveal a large-scale drying trend that commenced around 76,000 years ago and peaked in severe droughts between 61,000 and 55,000 years ago, near the time when the species went extinct.
Prolonged drought and heightened competition for resources may have led to their abandonment of Liang Bua and, ultimately, their extinction.
“At that time, the ecosystem surrounding Liang Bua experienced significant drying. Homo floresiensis vanished,” remarked the lead author of the study, Emeritus Professor Mike Gagan from the University of Wollongong.
“The summer rains caused the riverbed to become dry seasonally, placing stress on both the hobbits and their prey.”
The population of pygmy elephants saw a drastic decline around 61,000 years ago, signaling the loss of a crucial food source for the hobbits.
“Surface freshwater, along with Stegodon and Homo floresiensis, all diminished simultaneously, showcasing the compounded effects of ecological stress,” stated Dr. Gerd van den Bergh from the University of Wollongong.
“Competition for the scarce water and food likely forced the hobbits to vacate Liang Bua.”
“Meanwhile, the fossils of Homo floresiensis predate the earliest evidence of modern humans on Flores, Homo sapiens, who were traversing the Indonesian archipelago when the hobbits went extinct.”
“It’s possible that the hobbits encountered modern humans while migrating in search of water and food,” Professor Gagan noted.
“In that context, climate change may have set the stage for their eventual extinction.”
The study was published in the journal Communication Earth and Environment.
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MK Gagan et al. 2025. The onset of summer dryness and forest decline of Homo floresiensis at Liang Bua 61,000 years ago. Communication Earth and Environment 6,992; doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02961-3
Wildfires in California this January exacerbated by climate change
Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images
Famine, economic downfall, civil unrest, and conflict are serious threats we encounter unless we take urgent steps to curb further global warming and safeguard nature, leading climate, food, health, and security specialists cautioned in London today.
A national emergency briefing organized by climate activists and researchers aims to persuade politicians of the necessity for immediate and significant action regarding the intertwined crises of climate and biodiversity.
“I’m fearful for my life and future, and even more for my son’s,” stated Hugh Montgomery, a doctor at University College London focused on climate change’s impact on health.
“We require leadership on par with that of World War II, as if the survival of society depended on it—because it truly does,” remarked Mike Berners-Lee, who led the event at Lancaster University in the UK.
He indicated new evidence suggests the planet is heating up more rapidly than before, as noted by Kevin Anderson from the University of Manchester. “There exists a small but very real possibility that temperatures could reach 4°C by the end of this century.”
“The potential for 3°C or 4°C of warming is incredibly severe. We simply cannot afford to take that risk. It presents an extreme and unstable climate far beyond the conditions that have supported our civilization,” Anderson warned. “We will witness an unparalleled social and ecological breakdown at such levels. Geopolitical tensions will heighten, and there will likely be no viable economy left. A systemic collapse awaits us.”
Anderson cautioned against what he termed “delay technologies,” which aim to maintain the prosperity of the oil and gas sector. These encompass hydrogen and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, according to him.
Hayley Fowler, a researcher at the University of Newcastle in the UK, stated that the impacts of warming are exceeding expectations. “Heat waves in Europe are escalating quicker than anywhere else globally and significantly faster than climate models predict,” she remarked.
The UK could face storms capable of releasing up to 35 centimeters of rain, leading to severe flooding as experienced in Germany in 2021. “However, like the people of Germany, we often fail to comprehend this until it occurs,” Fowler noted.
She emphasized that nations are unprepared for such extreme weather conditions. “We continue to construct infrastructure that cannot endure today’s climate, let alone what lies ahead.”
Tim Renton, a researcher from the University of Exeter in the UK, alerted about the danger of triggering critical tipping points, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
If the AMOC collapses, Arctic sea ice may extend southward as far as the North Sea during winter, Renton explained. London, for three months each year, could see temperatures plunge below freezing, with lows reaching -20°C (-4°F), but summers could be hotter than currently experienced.
Renton warned that Britain could face water shortages and an inability to produce food. “Globally, more than half of the area will become incapable of cultivating wheat and corn, leading to a major food security crisis,” he said.
He cited that food production has already been adversely impacted, as noted by Paul Behrens from Oxford University. “In the past decade, the UK has recorded three of its five worst grain harvests,” he pointed out.
Behrens cautioned that the situation is poised to worsen, leading to civil unrest. “We are at a crossroads: we can either allow our food system to collapse and continue our current trajectory, preparing for political and social turmoil, or we can take action now.”
Richard Nagy, a former British Army lieutenant general and national climate and security adviser, expressed concern over national security risks. “What troubles me most is not one crisis but a series of crises. Multiple crises converging—food, health, infrastructure, immigration, energy, extreme weather—where slow or ineffective responses erode public trust in government, resulting in a reactionary political climate that promises to tackle all these crises simultaneously.”
“We must realistically anticipate a future that others may fail to envision or wish to ignore, a future with monumental consequences if realized. Just because we may not like risk doesn’t mean it will disappear or that we can turn a blind eye to it,” Nuzi commented.
Climate change activists march on the sidelines of the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil
Pablo Porciuncula/AFP via Getty Images
A decade following the Paris Agreement, there should be a significant leap in climate initiatives. Yet, in the past four years, there has been scant advancement, highlighted by the latest COP summit, which did not make substantial progress in phasing out fossil fuels or curbing deforestation. What went wrong?
I cannot provide a clear answer. However, as the planet continues to warm and the consequences become increasingly dire, I fear our responses are leaning toward irrationality instead of rationality. If true, the resulting climate impacts may be far worse, and the decline of our global civilization could become a more plausible scenario than previously imagined.
Let’s revisit the 2015 Paris Agreement. The concept of an international climate accord, wherein each nation would establish its own greenhouse gas emission targets, seemed to me incredibly naive. The ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius target was a stark shift from prior plans. Advocates claimed progress would be made incrementally through a “ratchet mechanism,” allowing nations to enhance their commitments over time.
I remained skeptical. I left Paris believing this was largely a façade for environmentalism. My expectation was minimal immediate influence but increased action as the consequences of warming became undeniable. In essence, reason would eventuate.
Yet, the opposite has occurred. Based on current policies, the Climate Action Tracker estimated back in 2015 that the world was on course for approximately 3.6°C of warming by 2100. By 2021, that figure was revised to around 2.6°C—a significant improvement, suggesting Paris was making strides.
However, the most recent Climate Action Tracker report prior to the COP30 summit presents grim findings. For four consecutive years, there has been “little or no measurable progress.” The report states, “Global progress remains stagnant.” Although a handful of countries are genuinely advancing, others are stalling or reversing their climate efforts.
While the increase in renewable energy generation is surpassing expectations, it’s counterbalanced by substantial funds still being allocated to fossil fuels. Simply harnessing cheap solar energy won’t suffice. The proliferation of solar installations can lead to diminishing returns on profits. Moreover, although producing green electricity is manageable, progress in more challenging sectors like agriculture, aviation, and steel manufacturing remains inadequate.
In addition, the issue is not solely the failure to reduce emissions; we are also ill-equipped to handle what’s coming. We continue constructing cities on sinking land adjacent to rising seas. As noted in an April report, “Adaptation progress is either too slow, stagnant, or misdirected,” a sentiment echoed by the UK’s Climate Change Committee.
The pressing question is why climate action has plateaued without intensification. In some regions, this is strikingly due to political leaders who either disregard climate change as a priority or blatantly deny it, such as seen with the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
Even those governments that vocalize climate change as a priority are taking minimal action, often citing more immediate concerns like the cost of living crisis. However, this crisis is intertwined with climate issues, as escalated severe weather patterns fuel rising food prices. As the climate continues to warm, the repercussions on food production and the broader economy will likely intensify.
Will we reach a moment where governments find themselves paralyzed on climate action due to the costs associated with combating rising sea levels inundating metropolises? Will citizens persist in supporting climate change deniers out of fear regarding global conditions, regardless of public opinion? Most individuals worldwide support increased climate action.
The notion that mounting evidence will lead leaders to rectify their course appears ever more naive. We navigate an unusual reality, reminiscent of the CDC’s handling of misinformation, such as the baseless anti-vaccination movements undermining public health even amid measles outbreaks, alongside some politicians suggesting that hurricanes stem from climate manipulation.
As we continue to break temperature records annually, the reality of climate change has never been clearer. But perhaps that’s part of the issue. Philosopher Martha Nussbaum posited that fear can drive detrimental behavior, prompting people to discard rational thought for fleeting pleasure over long-term benefits. Research indicates that environmental stress may lead individuals to act irrationally.
People often leap from perceiving difficulties to declaring imminent doom. No, we are not condemned. However, the longer rational thought is sidelined, the graver the consequences will become. Perhaps what we’re witnessing is merely a transient response linked to the pandemic’s aftermath and the Ukraine war. Alternatively, something more troubling might be unfolding.
Warm waters from the Atlantic near Greenland are now heating the deep layers of the Arctic Ocean, an area once considered relatively insulated from climate change.
The Arctic Ocean has seen a reduction of about 40% in its sea ice cover over the past 40 years, primarily due to the impact of atmospheric warming on sea levels. Researchers at the Ocean University of China evaluated the latest data collected by icebreakers to assess the temperature increase of the ocean floor.
In the Eurasian Basin, which is one of the ocean’s two principal sections, temperatures at depths ranging from 1500 meters to 2600 meters have increased by 0.074 degrees Celsius since 1990.
While this temperature rise may seem minor, it equates to nearly 500 trillion megajoules of energy. Such energy could potentially melt up to one-third of the least extensive sea ice area.
“The deep ocean is more dynamic than previously assumed,” states Chen Xianyao, one of the research team members. “We suspected that the deep ocean was warming, but not at this pace.”
An underwater ridge separating Greenland and Siberia divides the Arctic Ocean into two basins. The Amerasian Basin is primarily cut off from the Pacific Ocean by the shallow Bering Strait. However, warm Atlantic waters can still flow north along the Scandinavian coast into the upper Eurasian Basin through an extension of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). During winter, when seawater freezes, the salts are released, resulting in denser water that sinks and drags some warmer Atlantic water down with it.
Geothermal heat from the Earth warms the deep waters of the Eurasian Basin.
Previously, these warming trends were balanced by cold water flowing down from a neighboring basin east of Greenland. Yet, as the Greenland ice sheet continues to melt, more freshwater is entering the Greenland Basin. This influx has slowed the downward movement of cold, salty water, raising the temperature of deep waters in the Greenland Basin from -1.1°C to -0.7°C—a significantly rapid increase. Consequently, the influx of cold Greenland waters is no longer counteracting the heat from geothermal sources or the warm Atlantic waters sinking into the Arctic.
“The rising temperatures in the Greenland Basin are now reaching the Arctic,” says Son Louise, another research team member.
This research uncovers new warming mechanisms deep within the Arctic Ocean, “indicating a broader trend of global warming,” according to James McWilliams from UCLA.
The ongoing warming might eventually contribute to the melting of both sea ice and permafrost found on the ocean floor, which contains ice-like structures known as clathrates. If disturbed, these can release methane into the atmosphere, a phenomenon believed to have contributed to the Permian mass extinction.
According to a researcher, thousands of synthetic chemicals could be disrupting the genetic makeup of birds before they hatch, as highlighted in recent research on ducklings.
Scientists from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) injected small doses of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) into mallard duck eggs to investigate their effects.
The findings revealed that these chemicals could alter the ducklings’ DNA, switching genes on and off in various organs, ultimately reducing their chances of survival.
PFAS, often referred to as “forever chemicals,” are a category of synthetic substances that are notably resistant to environmental degradation.
In this experiment, researchers injected three different persistent chemicals into the duck eggs to evaluate their impacts. The eggs were then sealed in wax and incubated until they hatched.
Although the study was conducted in a controlled lab setting, the aim was to replicate the type of exposure these eggs might naturally receive from their mothers.
Immediately after hatching, scientists collected samples from the ducklings’ livers, hearts, and a unique organ known as the bursa of Fabricius, which plays a crucial role in the immune system.
Mother ducks exposed to PFAS in their environment can transfer the contamination to their offspring through their eggs – Credit: Getty Images
Results indicated that in the liver, two of the three persistent chemicals triggered genetic modifications in the ducklings, affecting genes related to fat metabolism.
The study’s lead author, En Fleur Brand, emphasized, “Mallards need to regulate fat storage and consumption precisely during both breeding and migration seasons.”
“Alterations in fat metabolism may hinder survival or reproductive success.”
Meanwhile, scientists were surprised to find no significant changes in the hearts of the ducklings, although bursa of Fabricius showed effects in all PFAS-exposed individuals.
Brand remarked, “We observed increased activity in genes typically involved in viral infection detection. However, the implications for the birds remain unclear.”
The researchers concluded that PFAS could be detrimental to young wildlife, such as ducklings, and advocated for stricter regulations on these chemicals.
While some PFAS have been permanently banned, thousands remain in use, and their impacts on animals, humans, and the environment are still not completely understood.
In their study, scientists assessed one widely regulated or banned permanent chemical, applicable in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States, along with two others still in circulation.
Brand stated, “These substances are prevalent in a multitude of products, ranging from frying pans and waterproof clothing to fire extinguishers, food packaging, and antifouling coatings.”
Preparatory ministerial meeting in Brasilia, Brazil ahead of COP30
Ton Molina/Bloomberg via Getty Images
As world leaders converge for the latest United Nations climate change conference a decade after the landmark COP21 summit in Paris, pessimism looms large. With the pivotal 1.5°C target already deemed unattainable and even the more lenient 2°C objective appearing increasingly elusive, the atmosphere is charged with concern.
The United Nations Environment Programme suggests, based on current national commitments, that the world is on track for a temperature rise of 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius this century. Climatologists emphasize that the upcoming 30th United Nations Conference of the Parties in Belem, Brazil, could be crucial in altering the course of global warming, with oceans, forests, and polar ice sheets nearing tipping points. Significant action is essential to assist poorer nations in securing the estimated $1.3 trillion necessary each year by 2030 to transition away from fossil fuels, mitigate climate change, and adapt to its consequences.
Manuel Pulgar Vidal, WWF’s global leader in climate and energy, states, “The climate debate is under serious threat from not just political decisions but also economic, financial, and trade factors.” He adds that this makes the upcoming COP perhaps one of the most consequential since 2009, as vital as Paris but in an entirely different context.
In reality, however, the expectations held by negotiators are muted. The prospect of a groundbreaking multilateral agreement akin to that of Paris seems far-fetched in the current fragmented political landscape.
The previous COP29 held in Baku, Azerbaijan, concluded with disappointing outcomes, as wealthier nations pledged considerably fewer fiscal contributions than poorer counterparts anticipated. Consequently, trust in the COP process has diminished, leading to discussions on whether the existing framework is still viable.
“Private investment is lacking, nations appear to be retreating on their commitments to move away from fossil fuels, and there are no new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) offered,” remarks Claudio Angelo from Brazilian NGO Klima Observatory. “The atmosphere surrounding climate action feels incredibly strained.”
Tensions ignited by trade disputes and geopolitical conflicts have infiltrated climate negotiations, with former President Trump actively opposing climate initiatives. He notably withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and curtailed efforts to limit fossil fuel use, urging other nations to do the same. On October 17, the International Maritime Organization postponed the formal endorsement of a plan aimed at reducing maritime emissions, incited by Trump’s threats of sanctions against supportive countries.
Economic sluggishness, rising living costs, and a rise in populist sentiments are complicating the implementation of climate-friendly policies. “2025 is shaping up to be the worst year for global climate action,” concludes Angelo.
Europe was initially anticipated to take a leadership role in climate diplomacy following the withdrawal of U.S. support; however, the continent remains divided as defense priorities, trade issues, and escalating energy expenses dominate discussions.
In Brazil, the host nation, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—who campaigned on environmental protection—has approved new highway constructions in the Amazon and oil prospecting in the region, with an eye towards the upcoming elections.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visits the main venue of COP30 in Belem
Alessandro Falco/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Bringing the COP to Belem is also a contentious choice. This first-ever Amazon COP aims to highlight the stories of those and the forests affected by climate change, underscoring the bold vision necessary for global salvation. The Ministry of the Environment has declared that a greater number of indigenous delegates than ever before will attend COP30.
Nonetheless, many participants regard this decision as imprudent. A shortage of available accommodation has driven up prices, forcing NGOs, diplomats, and businesses to seek alternative sleeping arrangements like tents, shipping containers, or hammocks.
The United Nations also restricts accreditation, leading to concerns that rather than being an “implementing COP,” this one may turn out to be an “empty COP.”
“An organization that had eight certifications last year only secured two this time,” notes Carla Cardenas from the Rights and Resources Initiative, a coalition advocating for land rights for indigenous peoples. Cardenas raised worries that civil society groups aiming to hold leaders accountable may face restrictions in attendance while oil and gas lobbying organizations, which possess larger budgets, remain unaffected.
Ahead of the summit, there are some indications of a positive shift. Fears that not enough leaders would attend to achieve a quorum have lessened, as high-profile figures like Britain’s Keir Starmer decide to make last-minute trips.
Amid declining multilateralism, Brazil, known for its mediating role on the global stage, could serve as an ideal host to unite divergent perspectives within climate diplomacy.
The president’s office is adopting a practical stance in negotiations, indicating that no major headline-making declarations are anticipated this time. Brazil’s focus will likely be on implementing existing agreements rather than chasing media-friendly headlines.
While substantial international breakthroughs in Belém are unlikely, there remains potential for cities, regions, and businesses committed to climate action to step forward, according to Thomas Hale from Oxford University. Groups of states collaborating to announce environmental initiatives could still have a significant influence.
“Countries resistant to change, like the U.S., may stay on the sidelines, but that won’t define where the real action occurs,” he explains. “Although we may not see international decisions made at COP that will move us forward fundamentally, it can still provide a framework for many positive initiatives to arise.”
President George H.W. Bush (left) and environmental protection advisor Bill Riley
Netflix
white house effect Directed by Boni Cohen, Pedro Cos, and John Schenck, available on Netflix starting October 31st
The opening scene of white house effect transports viewers to the devastating Great Drought of 1988. The backdrop is a scorching summer in North America, presenting the USA with its worst drought since the Dust Bowl. Relief is nowhere in sight; the heat is relentless.
This climate crisis defined the presidential election that year, pitting Democrat Michael Dukakis against Republican George H.W. Bush, who triumphed with a landslide victory on a pledge for enhanced environmental protection.
“Some may argue these challenges are insurmountable,” President Bush remarked during a campaign stop in Michigan, addressing climate change. “My belief is clear: it is achievable, and we must act. These matters transcend ideology and politics.” Such a sentiment from a prominent Republican seems unimaginable today.
In 1988, the U.S. was a nation where addressing environmental issues garnered votes, and where the connection between fossil fuels and climate change was discussed with a mix of urgency and skepticism.
Predominantly narrated through archival footage, white house effect serves as a window into a hopeful future that never came to fruition. It tells the tale of a populace ready to acknowledge climate change as a bipartisan issue, only to be steered away from that consensus.
The film centers on a struggle between two advisors to President Bush. In the blue corner, Bill Riley, former president of the World Wildlife Fund and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency administrator starting in 1989. In the red corner stands John H. Sununu, the chief of staff known for his climate skepticism. These two figures will shape the environmental policies of the Bush administration and face off for years, with dire consequences for our planet.
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George H.W. Bush stated that climate change knows no political boundaries. “
With hindsight, one could easily predict the outcome. Yet, what’s intriguing about white house effect is that it refrains from presenting this as inevitable. It explores a gradual march towards a destiny. The archival footage is always engaging, often shifting timelines to reinforce the film’s message, keeping the audience aware and engaged despite the grim reality on display.
Consider the 1979 energy crisis, during which Exxon experienced a staggering 119% profit increase while countless drivers waited hours to refuel due to plummeting oil production. One driver at a gas station remarked that everyone should just return home and await the gas shortage. When asked why he wasn’t turning back, he responded: “I’m not going back because no one else is.”
This documentary features numerous climate scientists, but none resonate more than Steven Schneider, a pioneer advocating for climate action. His journey forms the film’s emotional core, from his Senate testimony in 1988 to his final interview before his passing in 2010.
“Looking back at our early efforts, many of our immediate goals fell short. But here we are, making gradual progress,” he reflects. “The problem of global warming has been recognized, and we’re pushing for a cultural shift—something that will take a generation.”
It’s heart-wrenching to ponder how Mr. Schneider would view the last 15 years of fruitless attempts and the current direction of America.
Viewing white house effect can feel suffocating. It stirs frustration, particularly for those, like me, born too late to witness these events firsthand. While the film is polemical, it serves a vital purpose—shaking us out of apathy and urging action, no matter the cost.
Coral reefs are critically threatened by climate change
WaterFrame/Alamy
The recent surge in ocean temperatures has led to extensive bleaching and mortality of warm-water corals globally, marking the onset of the first climate tipping point in an ecosystem on Earth, as stated by scientists.
The deterioration of one of the planet’s most biodiverse and vulnerable ecosystems presents ‘risks to human health and safety’ for which governments are inadequately prepared, cautions Melanie McField, who oversees Florida’s “Healthy Reefs for Healthy People” conservation initiative under the Smithsonian Institution.
Warm-water coral reefs account for one-third of all known marine biodiversity and offer food, coastal protection, and livelihoods for approximately one billion individuals worldwide. Additionally, coral reefs contribute $9.9 trillion annually in goods and services globally.
However, corals are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in water temperature. Record-breaking global temperatures in 2023 have elevated ocean heat levels to unprecedented highs, resulting in significant bleaching events impacting over 80 percent of the world’s corals. Bleaching occurs when corals react to elevated water temperatures by expelling the algae residing within their tissues, leading them to bleach white. This process can make corals more prone to disease, and prolonged bleaching can deplete their primary food supply, ultimately leading to their death.
The most recent bleaching event represented “an order of magnitude” beyond what scientists had previously witnessed, according to McField. “We are at a tipping point,” she acknowledged. This is generally understood as a crucial threshold that, if crossed, can trigger dramatic and potentially irreversible changes in the climate system.
McField contributed to the chapter on corals in the Global Tipping Point Report 2025, which is now available for purchase. This report, the first update since 2023, was compiled by 160 scientists globally and coordinated by the University of Exeter and campaign organization WWF. It warns that warm-water corals are the initial component of the Earth system to reach a tipping point and are currently facing an “unprecedented crisis.”
Leading experts estimate that the thermal threshold for warm-water corals will be reached at a 1.2 degrees Celsius increase in global atmospheric temperatures above pre-industrial levels, with an upper limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius. By 2024, the world’s average temperature is expected to surpass this 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold for the first time in human history, exceeding the limits within which coral reefs can survive, noted Tim Renton, who spearheaded the report at the University of Exeter.
“We assessed the world at a temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius and confirmed the results,” he stated during a press conference ahead of the report’s release. “Most coral reefs are at risk of large-scale mortality or bleaching and are transitioning into a different state dominated by seaweed and algae.”
The most promising chance to save the world’s warm-water corals from near-total extinction lies in rapidly reducing global average temperatures to 1.2 degrees Celsius below pre-industrial levels, Renton asserts. However, whether this ambitious goal, which exceeds even the targets set for 1.5°C, is attainable remains uncertain.
Terry Hughes, a researcher from Australia’s James Cook University, emphasizes that “few unbleached coral reefs remain worldwide”. Nonetheless, there is still potential for improvement. “If global greenhouse gas emissions are swiftly curtailed, we can influence the future of coral reefs over the next few decades,” he states.
Although the timing of climate tipping points is often uncertain, researchers caution that significant declines in the Amazon rainforest, melting of polar ice sheets, and collapse of the crucial AMOC current may all occur at warming levels below 2°C.
Moreover, humans can also instigate “positive tipping points” to mitigate these risks, Renton highlighted, pointing to the rapid advancements in renewable energy and the increased adoption of electric vehicles in the past decade. Fast-tracking cleaner technologies could significantly reduce emissions and help keep global warming well below 2°C, the report suggests.
Renton stated that immediate action is crucial from world leaders during the upcoming COP30 summit in Brazil to expedite emissions reductions across the global economy and minimize the duration for which global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. “We are swiftly nearing tipping points in various Earth systems that could have catastrophic impacts on humanity and nature, fundamentally altering the planet. This necessitates immediate and unprecedented action from COP30 leaders and policymakers worldwide,” he urged.
“Everyone knows that airplanes negatively impact the climate…”
Oversnap/Getty Images
Years ago, I attended a climate science conference at University College London. While the specifics of the meeting are lost to me, the day remains vivid. Upon arrival, I encountered demonstrators outside, a familiar sight at such events that typically draw both supporters and skeptics of climate change.
Initially, the protesters conducted themselves peacefully, and I chose to enter the conference. Around mid-morning, however, they disrupted the lecture hall, heckling the speaker before storming the stage with their slogans and signs.
The protesters were unlike any I had encountered. Instead of being traditional climate activists or skeptics, one was a proponent of a conspiracy theory called chemtrails. In essence, this theory posits that the condensation trails (contrails) left by aircraft contain harmful substances deliberately released to manipulate the weather, poison people, or serve other sinister purposes.
This is untrue. Contrails are simply long streaks of ice crystals created when water vapor in engine exhaust freezes in the cold air at cruising altitudes. While they typically dissipate quickly, under certain conditions they can linger for hours, forming what conspiracy theorists label as chemtrails.
Like many conspiracy theories, this one carries elements of truth. Although contrails may look stunning against a summer sky, they nevertheless contribute to environmental damage.
It’s well-established that airplanes have an adverse effect on the climate. Burning aviation fuel represents about 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, contrails and contrail-induced clouds are categorized as “aeronautical non-carbon dioxide.” The climatic effects might be equally or even more severe.
This is attributable to basic physics. Similar to greenhouse gases, ice crystals in cirrus clouds trap infrared radiation escaping from Earth, generating a warming effect. They also reflect incoming sunlight, counteracting this effect. Ultimately, though, they contribute to global warming.
In reality, the impact of contrails on climate is not completely understood. Last year, NASA acknowledged this knowledge gap and asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to investigate the climatic repercussions of contrails and suggest research methodologies.
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Contrails may look eerily beautiful on a summer evening, but they are quietly harming the environment. “
Recently published, the report states that contrails might contribute to warming potentially exceeding that of aviation fuel, though significant uncertainty remains. Fortunately, options exist to mitigate this impact, including altering fuel formulations, refining engine designs, and rerouting flights to avoid areas conducive to contrail formation.
The report does not mention chemtrails, which is sensible. While the panel might have considered debunking this unfounded conspiracy theory, they opted not to give it publicity. Regardless, the report is unlikely to effect change, especially under the current US administration. Donald Trump’s administration has shown a tendency towards anti-science and conspiracy-driven climate skepticism, making addressing contrails a low priority. Significant regulatory changes regarding the airline and fossil fuel industries are necessary, so don’t expect immediate action.
I suspect that the airline and fossil fuel sectors silently welcome chemtrail theorists; their distractions divert attention from the true implications of contrails on climate.
Instead, the report will likely collect dust, while another report on chemtrails gets commissioned. Reports associate President Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with the conspiracy as part of an unscientific initiative to make America healthy again. Despite the absence of credible evidence, the notion persists.
Earlier this year, while enjoying a sunny afternoon, I had a conversation with my neighbors. “Have a nice day,” I said. “If they weren’t here, they will be,” he replied, gesturing skyward at intersecting contrails. He, too, is a climate change skeptic.
The chemtrail conspiracy is inherently frustrating—wholly futile. Despite their lack of scientific understanding, conspiracy theorists seem to think their beliefs will yield results. They are intrinsically distrustful of corporate and governmental authority and care about both environmental and human welfare. Yet, their actions only draw attention away from genuine protests and misallocate it toward unfounded notions.
The UCL meeting ultimately succumbed to continuous protests. If the dissenters believed they had triumphed, they were mistaken. Climate change remains a grave threat—chemtrails do not exist.
Shedding pounds might be as straightforward as swapping out some sausages, beef, and bacon in your meals for legumes. Recent research highlights this find.
Researchers from the University of Helsinki directed 51 Finnish men, aged 20-65, to cut back on their red and processed meat intake by just 200g (7oz) a week.
Simultaneously, these men incorporated more legumes, particularly peas and fava beans, into their diets, constituting 20% of their protein sources, while still consuming chicken, fish, eggs, and other proteins.
Apart from this substitution, participants were not advised to eat less or restrict calories. Remarkably, just six weeks later, they experienced an average weight loss of 1 kilo (2.2 pounds).
“This was astonishing because we didn’t set out to encourage weight loss,” said Professor Anne Maria Pajari, a molecular dietitian and senior author of the study, as reported by BBC Science Focus. “We encouraged volunteers to maintain their daily eating habits while monitoring their red and processed meat and legume consumption.”
Pajari noted that while legumes are associated with healthy weight, the degree of change observed in just six weeks was unexpected. This was just the beginning.
By the study’s conclusion, participants consuming legumes had lower total and LDL (“bad”) cholesterol levels, indicating that this dietary switch could lower heart disease risk.
Moreover, the men’s iron levels improved, an outcome surprising since lean meat is typically regarded as a primary source of dietary iron.
According to Pajari, the food exchange was well-received by participants; only one volunteer chose to leave the study.
“I’m very satisfied with the results,” Pajari remarked. “This is something everyone can do. By cutting back on red and processed meat and incorporating more plant-based foods, individuals can make a meaningful impact on their health.”
“Even small adjustments can lead to significant benefits for both personal health and the environment,” she added.
The focus on men specifically was intentional, as they generally consume more meat compared to women.
Pajari observed that in Finland, the average man consumes double the amount of meat than the average woman, making men a “more vulnerable group” in terms of red and processed meat intake.
Lean meats include beef, pork, and lamb, while processed meats consist of cold cuts, sausages, and bacon – Credit: via Guido Mieth
The study also involved control groups, with another 51 men consuming 760g (27oz) of red and processed meats weekly—making up a quarter of their total protein intake, without any legumes.
This group showed no notable improvement in their blood cholesterol or iron levels and lost only 300g (0.6 pounds) on average. Pajari suggested this was merely a byproduct of participating in dietary trials.
“Participation in a diet trial often raises awareness about one’s eating habits,” she explained. “It’s quite sensitive, leading individuals to make healthier choices even when not instructed to.”
Overall, Pajari hopes that men will consider substituting some red and processed meats in their diets with peas, beans, and lentils for the sake of their health and the planet.
The average size of trees in the Amazon Rainforest is gradually increasing as carbon dioxide levels rise. This means that these larger trees play a crucial role in determining whether the forest acts as a carbon sink.
How forests adapt to changing climates remains a significant question. One theory suggests that larger trees are more vulnerable to reductions as they face challenges from climate-related phenomena, such as droughts and high winds. Understanding how forests respond to these changes is crucial for future climate models.2 It’s essential to address atmospheric issues to mitigate global warming.
Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert from Cambridge University and her team at the Rainfor Amazon Forest Inventory Network have measured tree diameters in 188 plots averaging 12,000 square meters across the Amazon Basin. The monitoring period varied, with some plots observed for around 30 years. Meanwhile, 2 atmospheric concentrations are reaching near record levels.
“We monitor certain areas in the forest where the average tree size has increased over time. This indicates that these trees are capable of storing more carbon than they did in the past,” researchers noted, highlighting an average diameter increase of about 3.3% every decade.
“The structural composition of the Amazon forest is continually changing throughout the basin,” says team member Rebecca Bunberry Morgan from the University of Bristol, UK. “There are more sizable trees and fewer smaller ones, indicating a shift in average size towards larger trees.”
She adds that the average diameter of trees in mature, undisturbed forest areas remains relatively constant as they replace and grow larger trees where seedlings have fallen. Researchers believe that Amazon trees are responding positively to the increasing atmospheric 2 levels, resulting in enhanced growth and biomass accumulation. “Larger trees tend to thrive as they compete more effectively for light and water,” remarks Esquivel-Muelbert.
This implies that large trees are disproportionately vital for the carbon storage capacity of the forest, meaning their loss would have significantly adverse effects, she concludes.
“A key finding is that 2 wood serves as a globally significant carbon sink, functioning as a fertilizer that promotes tree growth while being influenced by many factors.” Peter Etchells at Durham University, UK, states, “However, this could change as climate continues to evolve, potentially impacting the balance of growth, nutrient availability, temperature, and CO.2?”
tIt may conjure images of battery production lines and the extensive “gigafactory” projects of Elon Musk and Tesla across the globe, or thoughts of batteries powering everything from electric toothbrushes to smartphones and vehicles. However, at Invinity Energy Systems’ modest factory in Basgate, near Edinburgh, employees are nurturing the hope that Britain will also contribute to the battery revolution.
These batteries, which are based on vanadium
tIt may conjure thoughts of battery production lines and the expansive “gigafactory” projects of Elon Musk and Tesla worldwide, or images of batteries powering devices from electric toothbrushes to smartphones and cars. However, at Invinity Energy Systems’ modest factory in Basgate, near Edinburgh, employees are fostering hope that Britain will also play a pivotal role in the battery revolution.
These batteries, utilizing vanadium ions, can be housed within a 6-meter (20-foot), 25-ton shipping container. While they may not be used in vehicles, manufacturers aspire for this technology to find its place in the global storage rush, propelling a transition to net-zero carbon grids.
Renewable electricity represents the future of a cleaner and more economical energy system compared to fossil fuels. Its primary challenge lies in the fact that renewable energy generation is contingent on weather conditions—sunshine and wind may not be available when energy demand peaks. Battery storage allows for the shift of energy production, enabling it to be saved for later use, which is essential for a well-functioning electric grid.
“What has suddenly become apparent is that people have recognized the necessity of energy storage to integrate more renewable energy into the grid,” stated Jonathan Mullen, CEO of Invinity, at the factory where a series of batteries are stacked and shipped.
For a long time, experts have explored various methods for storing renewable electricity, but the issue of grid reliability gained political attention in April when Spain and Portugal experienced the largest blackouts in Europe in two decades. While some rushed to criticize renewable energy, a Spanish government report clarified that it was not the cause. Nonetheless, battery storage assists grids worldwide in avoiding similar complications as those seen in the Iberian Peninsula.
Power blackouts in Spain and Portugal in April highlighted the issues of energy security. Photo: Fermín Rodríguez/Nurphoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Much of the attention in battery research has focused on maximizing energy storage in the smallest and lightest containers suitable for electric vehicles. This development was crucial for the transition away from carbon-intensive gasoline and diesel, which are significant contributors to global warming. It also led to substantial reductions in the costs associated with lithium-ion batteries.
As with many aspects of the shift from fossil fuels to electric technologies, China is driving demand at an incredible scale. According to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, China has installed batteries with a capacity of 215 gigawatt hours (GWh).
China’s battery installations are expected to nearly quadruple by the end of 2027 as new projects are completed. For instance, the state-owned China Energy Engineering Corporation recently bid on a 25GWh battery project utilizing lithium iron phosphate technology, typically used in more affordable vehicles.
Iola Hughes, research director at a Benchmark subsidiary, Rho Motion, stated that declining prices and increased adoption of renewable energy are propelling the rise in demand. By 2027, total global battery storage installations could increase fivefold, Hughes noted, adding, “This figure could rise even further as technological advancements and reduced costs enable developers to construct battery energy storage systems at an unprecedented pace.”
The majority of this growth (95% of current figures) will involve projects utilizing lithium-ion batteries, including a site in Aberdeenshire managed by UK-based Zenobē Energy, which claims to have “the largest battery in Europe.”
Energy storage companies harnessing various technologies must navigate a challenging landscape to secure early-stage funding while proving that their technologies are economically viable. Invinity’s flow batteries use vanadium, while U.S.-based rival EOS Energy employs zinc. However, flow batteries often excel in applications requiring storage durations of over 6-8 hours, where lithium batteries typically fall short.
Cara King, an R&D scientist at Invinity Energy Systems, holds a vial of vanadium electrolyte in various states of charge. Photo: Murdo Macleod/The Guardian
Flow batteries leverage the unique properties of certain metals that can stably exist with varying electron counts. One transport unit contains two tanks of vanadium ions, each with different electron counts—one is “Royal Purple” and the other “IRN-Bru Red.” The system pumps the vanadium solution through a membrane stack that allows protons to pass, while electrons travel around the circuit to provide power. If electrons are driven in the opposite direction by solar panels or wind turbines, the process reverses, charging the battery, which can support a charge of up to 300 kilowatts.
A significant benefit of flow batteries is their relative ease of manufacturing compared to lithium-ion counterparts. Invinity managed to assemble a battery stack with just 90 employees, primarily sourced from Scottish parts.
Throughout the project’s lifespan, Mullen has maintained that “on a cost-per-cycle basis, it offers more value than lithium.” While the upfront costs are higher than those for lithium batteries—Invinity estimates around £100,000 per container—the longer lifespan without capacity loss and the absence of flammability means no costly fire safety equipment is necessary. The shipping container is already deployed next to Vibrant Motivation in Bristol, Oxford Auto Chargers, casinos in California, and solar parks in South Australia.
“We can commission the entire site within a few days,” Mullen remarked.
Invinity is valued at just over £90 million in the London AIM junior stock market and aspires for the UK to spearhead the flow battery niche.
UK manufacturing could be favorably considered in government contests for support under a “cap and floor” scheme that ensures electricity prices remain within a specified range. Should they succeed, the company anticipates a substantial increase in production from its current rate of five containers per week. Mullen envisions the possibility of employing up to 1,000 workers if the company flourishes.
“The potential for growth is immense,” Mullen stated. “Have we moved past the question of whether technology can scale effectively?”
As carbon emissions continue to climb, is geoengineering our best hope to hinder the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, preventing significant sea level rise? A recent analysis of five major geoengineering proposals suggests otherwise.
Martin Seegert from the University of Exeter in the UK warns that promoting unworkable geoengineering solutions distracts from pressing issues. “This undermines our urgent need for decarbonization,” he asserts.
Seegert and his team assessed each polar geoengineering proposal using six criteria: effectiveness, scalability within a reasonable timeframe, affordability, international consensus, potential to create false hope for decades, and environmental risks.
In Antarctica, various ice sheets rest on the seabed, and they are melting from below due to warm seawater. One proposed solution involves erecting large “curtains” to block warm currents from reaching these ice sheets and the floating ice shelves that protect them.
The team warns that the effectiveness of these curtains is uncertain, as noted by Stephen Chaun from Monash University, Australia. “If hot water is diverted away from one ice shelf, where does it go next? Redirecting it to a nearby shelf just shifts the problem,” he states.
These curtains would need to be anchored to the seabed at depths of up to 1 kilometer, rising hundreds of meters and extending for tens of kilometers.
A significant portion of the research voyage to Antarctica is being refocused due to the hazards posed by icebergs and sea ice. “That presents considerable danger,” he notes.
Chown mentions that currently, only a single ship is capable of reaching the area where ocean curtains are required to safeguard Thwaites’ “Doomsday” glacier.
Concerns arise for glaciers that sit on land rather than floating on the seabed, as increased liquid water underneath the ice can act as a lubricant, speeding up the flow and leading to heightened sea level rise.
One proposed intervention is to drill holes in the ice and pump out any water beneath it.
“This approach necessitates a multitude of holes drilled into potentially thick ice. However, we lack precise knowledge of where the water lies,” says Sammy Buzzard from Northumbria University, UK. “Even with an understanding of the science, scalability, cost, and power supply issues make this an impractical solution.”
Another concept involves covering the Arctic Ocean’s surface with tiny hollow glass beads to reflect solar heat back into space. However, Chaun warns, “[This] could backfire completely.”
Sustaining this coverage would require the production of 360 megatons of glass beads annually—comparable to global plastic output. Following lab tests revealing the beads were toxic, the project aimed at testing this idea was discontinued.
Stratospheric aerosol injection is another proposed method, which involves releasing substances like sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to form aerosols that reflect sunlight. This method poses significant challenges beyond just polar regions. Aerosols would not only fail to stay within the polar stratosphere but also provide minimal effectiveness during the dark polar winters against reflective ice and snow.
The scale of aerosol deployment would necessitate vast quantities, potentially damaging the ozone layer and disrupting climates in other regions, as noted by Valérie Masson-Delmotte from Paris-Saclay University, France. Affected countries may even seek compensation.
Another suggestion includes thickening Arctic sea ice by pumping seawater over it. “This would necessitate deploying millions of devices across drifting, fragile ice,” remarks Heidi Sevestre from Norway’s Arctic Surveillance and Assessment Program. “Such a scenario is technically, logistically, and economically unfeasible.”
The final concept evaluated by the researchers revolves around fertilizing the Southern Ocean to boost phytoplankton growth, thereby absorbing carbon as organic matter settles to the seabed. However, out of 12 small tests, none effectively reached the seabed. Furthermore, this approach could accelerate ocean oxygen depletion and release potent greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide, warns Masson-Delmotte.
“I’m deeply worried about the overly optimistic views presented by some proponents of these strategies, which often gloss over the challenges,” states Masson-Delmotte. “I believe this article highlights that gap.”
Seegert argues that pursuing further research into these ideas squanders valuable resources. “The scale challenges are insurmountable,” he asserts.
Yet, not all researchers agree. “I believe it’s premature to dismiss any of these approaches entirely,” comments Shawn Fitzgerald from the Climate Restoration Centre in Cambridge, UK.
Recent research indicates that the ability to safely store carbon is significantly lower than earlier estimates, being only a tenth of what was initially predicted. This finding constraints its viability as a solution to the climate crisis.
New estimates, published in Nature, reveal that carbon capture could lower global warming by just 0.7°C, a stark contrast to the previously estimated 6°C.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO)2 from the environment or industrial processes, transporting it, and storing it deep underground to prevent greenhouse gas emissions.
The study cautions that many areas once considered suitable for CCS may pose significant risks. Concerns such as leaks, seismic activity, and water contamination could render numerous potential sites unsafe.
The researchers conducted an extensive analysis of local mapping areas for viable carbon storage locations. Their findings suggest that, in reality, CCS can store only about 146 billion tonnes of CO.2, approximately 10 times less than previously thought.
“Carbon storage is often framed as a solution to the climate crisis,” stated the lead author, Matthew Guido, a senior researcher at IIASA and the University of Maryland, USA. “Our findings indicate that its effectiveness is limited.”
“With current trends hinting at a potential rise of up to 3°C this century, even maximizing the available geological storage won’t suffice to limit warming to 2°C.”
Co-author Jori Rogelgi, a senior researcher and director at the Grantham Institute, emphasized that carbon storage should not be perceived as an endless solution for climate preservation.
“Instead, geological storage sites should be viewed as a precious resource that must be managed responsibly to ensure a safe climate future for humanity,” he remarked. “It should be employed to halt and counteract global warming rather than wastefully offset ongoing, preventable CO.2 emissions.”
Trees naturally absorb carbon, while carbon storage technology responsibly hides carbon deep underground – Credit: A. Martin UW Photos
The study also suggests that nations like the US, Russia, China, Brazil, and Australia, as major fossil fuel producers, might benefit from utilizing depleted oil and gas fields for carbon storage.
“This issue transcends mere technology,” remarked co-author Siddharth Joshi, a research scholar at IIASA. “It encompasses concepts of transgenerational and national justice.”
“Countries with the highest historical emissions should lead in utilizing this resource wisely as they hold the most practical carbon storage options.”
Experts not involved in this research are currently debating the accuracy of the paper’s figures and their implications for the future of carbon storage as astrategy to mitigate the climate crisis.
However, Professor Carrie Leah, a climate scientist at Cardiff University who was not part of the study, stated that the finite nature of carbon storage should redirect focus towards reducing fossil fuel usage.
“There is no solitary solution to climate mitigation,” Leah noted. “It’s akin to a pie comprised of multiple slices.
“This study illustrates that the CCS portion of the pie is significantly smaller than previously believed, highlighting the urgent need to address the larger slices of fossil fuel reduction.”
Terence Tao, widely recognized as one of the world’s leading mathematicians—often dubbed the “Mozart of Mathematics”—tends to avoid discussions on politics.
As Tao stated, “I’m focused on scientific research. I participate in voting and sign petitions, but I don’t view myself as an activist.”
Following the halting of a $584 million federal grant at UCLA in July, Tao expressed concern regarding the potential impact on scientists, suggesting that if the current trend persists, it could lead to indiscriminate cuts affecting many, himself included.
“This administration has exhibited extreme radicalism, particularly in its alteration of scientific landscapes in ways even the first Trump administration did not,” Tao commented. “This is not normal, and I believe many people are unaware of the damage occurring.”
Tao is among a select group of prominent mathematicians who openly challenge the regime’s actions, labeling them as “existential threats” to his field and the broader academic science community. He has prioritized public advocacy over his research for the time being.
“The U.S. is the leading global funder of scientific research, and the administration is focused on consolidating America’s innovative edge. However, federal research funding isn’t a constitutional guarantee,” remarked White House spokesperson Kush Desai. “The administration’s duty is to ensure taxpayer-funded research aligns with the priorities of American citizens.”
During the Trump administration, UCLA faced scrutiny through the suspension of its federal grants, based on claims of racism and failure to maintain a “non-biased research environment.” Investigations noted these issues.
Having emigrated to the United States from Australia at the age of 16, Tao was recognized as a mathematical prodigy early on. He has developed a significant career at UCLA and was awarded the 2016 Fields Medal, often regarded as the equivalent of a Nobel Prize in Mathematics. Additionally, he has earned a MacArthur Fellowship and other prestigious honors.
As part of a comprehensive federal lawsuit against UCLA, the National Science Foundation suspended two of its TAO grants, one of which directly backed Tao’s contributions at UCLA and his work with the University’s Institute of Pure and Applied Mathematics (IPAM). This was designated as a special project.
An NSF spokesperson confirmed, “The National Science Foundation has reinstated the awards that were suspended at the University of California, Los Angeles,” while withholding any further comment on Tao’s remarks.
Looking ahead, IPAM funding—established in 2000 to enhance collaboration among mathematicians, industry professionals, and engineers—remains at risk. The current grant is set to expire next year and awaits renewal, with the Trump administration proposing a 57% budget reduction for the NSF. Requests for 2026 are under consideration.
Tao’s NSF-funded research delves into advanced mathematical concepts, particularly focusing on understanding patterns in long numbers. Although this research may seem basic and lacks immediate practical applications, Tao suggests that its findings could influence encryption methods for security purposes.
On the other hand, IPAM’s research has yielded substantial public benefits. Two decades ago, Tao collaborated with other scientists to address signal processing challenges in medical imaging.
“An algorithm we developed with IPAM is routinely used in modern MRI machines, sometimes enhancing scanning speed by tenfold,” Tao noted.
The Trump administration has employed funding cuts or suspensions as leverage to push for reforms on university campuses, employing a multifaceted strategy. Initially, they sought to slash funding for scientific endeavors by reducing federal reimbursements for indirect costs like equipment and maintenance.
Subsequently, they focused on specific types of grants, including those addressing diversity, equity, inclusion, and gender identity.
The administration also singled out institutions like Harvard University, Columbia University, and, more recently, UCLA, over allegations of racism and anti-Semitism.
The lawsuit corresponds with numerous funding initiatives, leading to ongoing legal disputes which resulted in the cancellation and subsequent restoration of several grants.
Tao expressed that the recent disruption in financing for his project has compelled him to defer part of his own salary to maintain support for graduate students. His recent activities have shifted from mathematics to attending urgent meetings with university authorities, seeking donor contributions, and writing an opinion opposing the funding cuts.
“This is typically when I focus on my research, but this has become a top priority,” Tao emphasized.
He grows increasingly anxious about the bigger picture, believing that the administration’s actions could dissuade young scientists from remaining in the U.S., asserting that if this pattern continues, he himself may have to reconsider his position.
Tao has observed from his vantage point at UCLA that graduate and postdoctoral students are increasingly inclined to seek opportunities outside the U.S. as funding uncertainty looms.
“In past eras, other countries with distinguished scientific heritages faced turmoil and conflict, prompting many to flee to the U.S. as a safe haven,” Tao remarked. “It’s paradoxical that we are now witnessing an inverse trend where other countries might begin to attract skilled talent currently based in the U.S.”
Just a year ago, Tao hadn’t considered leaving UCLA or the U.S., but he has received a handful of recruitment inquiries and is beginning to contemplate his future in America if the current situation continues.
“I’ve established my roots here. I raised my family here, so it would take significant incentives to uproot me. Nonetheless, these days, predicting the future is increasingly challenging,” Tao concluded. “I never envisioned moving at all; it was never on my radar. Yet now, whether for better or worse, all possibilities must be taken into account.”
Before entering the MRI scanner, Emily Weldon practiced moving a lost finger from her amputated arm, accompanied by a researcher.
Tamar Makin/Hunter Schone
Research suggests our brains may not reconfigure as much as previously believed following an amputation.
The somatosensory cortex, which processes sensory data like touch and temperature from the entire body, has been shown in various studies to have distinct regions mapped to different body parts. For instance, the sensation of burning your hands might activate regions corresponding to your toes.
There is evidence indicating that when a nerve is severed, the somatosensory cortex may reorganize. A study observing macaques with severed arm nerves revealed that neurons typically responding to hand stimuli were instead active when the face was touched. The researchers inferred that some cortical areas initially linked to the hands were repurposed to respond to facial sensations.
However, a team led by Tamar Makin from Cambridge University conducted a groundbreaking comparison of brain activity in individuals before and after amputation, revealing minimal changes.
Using MRI, researchers scanned the brains of three participants prior to their medically necessary arm amputations. During the scans, they were instructed to pucker their lips and attempt to move their fingers.
Interestingly, even after numerous attempts to willfully move fingers they no longer possessed, the brain signals remained unchanged. “To the best of our measurement, they remain the same,” Makin noted.
Long-term follow-ups on two participants, 18 months and 5 years post-surgery, indicated no significant alterations in brain signals since the initial scans.
The researchers utilized an AI model that was trained to correlate brain activity with specific finger movements. When participants imagined moving their fingers in a random sequence, the model accurately identified which finger they were trying to move, demonstrating consistent neural activity.
In another experiment segment, somatosensory cortical activity was assessed in 26 individuals, average 23 years post-amputation, during attempts to move their lips and fingers. The findings showed comparable activity levels.
“This study decisively challenges the notion that the brain can easily remap, rewire, or reorganize as initially thought,” remarked John Krakauer from Johns Hopkins University in Maryland.
The implications of these findings could significantly affect treatments for phantom limb pain, a common condition where amputees experience discomfort in limbs that are no longer present.
Some therapeutic approaches utilize virtual reality and visual stimuli to prompt brain reorganization, yet results have varied, sometimes influenced by placebo effects, according to Makin.
Researchers suggest that innovative methods, such as implanting nerves into new tissues during amputation, might help mitigate this condition. If remaining nerves are left unconnected, they can thicken, potentially contributing to phantom limb pain.
“The previous maladaptive plasticity theory regarding phantom pain relied on the belief that reorganization was possible, which now seems incorrect,” stated Krakauer. “This fundamentally alters our approach to treating phantom limb pain since its underlying theory has been disproven.”
Wildfires in Greece are diminishing the Earth’s natural carbon sink
Thanassis Stavrakis/AP Photo/Alamy
Climate change is increasingly compromising the ability of the Earth’s natural carbon sinks to absorb excess carbon dioxide. This results in greenhouse gases emitted by human activity lingering in the atmosphere, contributing to further warming.
These feedback loops account for roughly 15% of the rise in CO2 levels since 1960, according to Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, UK.
The land and oceans serve as carbon sinks, absorbing nearly half of the extra CO2 produced by humans. While higher CO2 levels can enhance plant growth, leading to greater CO2 uptake by vegetation, extreme temperatures, droughts, and wildfires associated with global warming can counteract this CO2 fertilization effect.
Friedlingstein is part of the Global Carbon Project, which aims to clarify the amounts of CO2 being emitted, how it is absorbed by different sources, and how this process evolves over time. Previously, his research team used climate models to project a 27% increase in land sinks in the absence of drought or other feedbacks.
His latest estimates have adjusted this figure to 30%, as he shared at the Exeter Climate Conference last month. He mentioned that ocean sinks also increase CO2 by 6% without feedback effects.
Together, land and oceans contribute over 15% of atmospheric CO2. Since 1960, CO2 levels have surged to around 100 parts per million (ppm), indicating that 15 ppm can be traced back to the feedback effects impacting the sinks. “The sink hasn’t collapsed, but its recovery is slow,” Friedlingstein noted.
There remains uncertainty regarding the sink’s capacity, as David Armstrong McKay from the University of Sussex has observed. “It aligns with expectations, but it’s not encouraging news that we’re marginally off what we projected,” McKay stated. “As warming intensifies, it will challenge land sinks’ adaptability to increased CO2, with extreme events like the recent El Niño-enhanced drought hampering the positive effects on vegetation growth.”
The pressing question is what will unfold next. With the rise in warming, droughts, and fires, research has indicated that land sinks have made minimal net CO2 contributions in the past two years.
This has raised concerns that the effectiveness of land sinks might significantly decrease in the near future, opposing the gradual decline most climate scientists anticipate.
Nonetheless, Friedlingstein referred to these short-term fluctuations as “blips” that may not accurately predict future trends. “What we should focus on is the long term,” he emphasized.
Hurricane Erin has regained strength, returning to a Category 4 storm over the weekend.
The recent hurricane activity has led to the formation of one of the most rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes on record, suggesting that climate change is elevating the threat of quickly strengthening storms.
Erin was the first hurricane of this Atlantic season, rapidly escalating from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in just over 24 hours. Even after fluctuations in intensity, Erin’s transformation back to a Category 4 storm is among the five fastest transitions from Category 1 to Category 5.
The hurricane is anticipated to grow stronger on Monday as it moves east of the Bahamas. For more information, refer to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory. Heavy rainfall is expected in Hispaniola on Monday, as well as in parts of the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas until Tuesday.
However, experts are focusing closely on the phenomenon of the storm’s “rapid strengthening.”
The National Hurricane Center defines rapid strengthening as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 35 mph within 24 hours.
In Erin’s case, its maximum sustained wind speed surged by approximately 75 mph over a 24-hour period from Friday morning to Saturday.
Climate change is heightening the risk of rapidly intensifying storms, primarily due to elevated sea surface temperatures and increased moisture in the atmosphere.
As Erin approaches the Bahamas on Monday, it is expected to further intensify in the warm waters that are above 80 degrees Fahrenheit. A warmer atmosphere caused by global warming is capable of holding more moisture, allowing the storm to gain strength and enhance rainfall.
Research published in 2023 in the Journal Scientific Reports indicates that the likelihood of rapid intensification for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic has increased by about 29% from 2001 to 2020 compared to the 1971 to 1990 period.
Rapid intensification has been well-documented in recent years, with Hurricane Dorian reaching peak winds of 150 mph to 185 mph in just nine hours in 2019. Additionally, Hurricane Ian experienced rapid strengthening before making landfall in Florida in 2022.
Last year, Hurricane Milton’s sustained wind speed astonishingly rose by 90 mph over approximately 25 hours. Other notable instances of rapid strengthening include Hurricanes Harvey (2017), Laura (2020), Ida (2021), and Ian (2023).
Despite these observations, predicting rapid intensification remains a challenge. Scientists understand that warm sea surface temperatures, high humidity, and favorable atmospheric conditions play crucial roles, but further research is essential to comprehend the specific mechanics at play in individual storms.
In the coming days, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Erin will track between Bermuda and the US East Coast.
While the storms are not forecasted to make direct landfall, they can still generate dangerous surf, strong currents, and other hazardous conditions affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, the US East Coast, and Canada’s Atlantic region.
The recent findings in Sulawesi, Indonesia, have revised the timeline for early human sea crossings, adding complexity to the puzzle of their creators.
Archaeologists have unearthed stone tools at a location in South Sulawesi, called Cario, dating back at least 104 million years. Given that Sulawesi is encircled by swift and deep waters, anyone who created these tools would have had to navigate the open ocean.
“This represents the earliest known evidence of early human presence in Sulawesi,” says Professor Adam Brumm from the Australian Center for Human Evolution Research at Griffith University, which co-directed the research. BBC Science Focus.
“It now seems evident that early hominins managed to cross the Wallace Line, leading to isolated populations on distant islands.”
The Wallace Line serves as a critical biogeographical boundary between mainland Asia and Wallacea Island. “For land mammals that don’t fly, such as those in Sulawesi, crossing from the edge of mainland Asia to the nearest Wallacea island would have been nearly impossible due to the vast distances and swift currents,” Brumm explained.
Earlier discoveries indicated that hominins arrived at nearby Flores Island approximately 102 million years ago, evolving into species like Homo floresiensis (nicknamed “The Hobbit” due to its stature) and Homo luzonensis.
However, as of now, no fossils have been discovered in Sulawesi, leaving the identity of the tool’s maker an enigma.
“We suspect it was an early Asian human species, possibly Homo erectus,” Brumm remarked. “I doubt they used boats for this journey. The colonization of the island likely occurred accidentally as they might have clung to logs or natural vegetation ‘rafts’ that were formed during tsunamis.”
These stone tools, excavated from Cario in Sulawesi, have been dated to over 104 million years ago. The scale bar is 10 mm. – Credit: MW Moore/University of New England
If Homo erectus made it to Sulawesi more than a million years ago, they may have been carving out their own evolutionary niche.
“In Flores and Luzon, fossil discoveries indicate that hominins on these islands underwent evolutionary changes, leading to unique new species that are small and distinct,” noted Brumm. “Though we have yet to find human fossils in Sulawesi, the possibility of similar events occurring on the island cannot be ruled out.”
What’s next for Brumm and the team? “We’re continuing our excavations,” he stated. “Human fossils are incredibly rare, but millions of hominins have existed and perished over the last million years, so there might be preserved remains of these toolmakers out there.”
“We hope to discover a fossil—or two—with persistence (and a bit of luck), as finding one would be an extraordinary breakthrough, perhaps even a game changer.”
Adam Brumm is a professor of archaeology at Griffith University. His work has accumulated over 21 years of funding for research in Indonesia. His published studies include many in Nature, spanning topics from the discovery of new human fossils in Wallacea (the island region between Asia and Australia) to recent insights into human evolution.
Flammability assessments on western juniper trees (Juniperus occidentalis)
Rebecca Koll
In a laboratory at the University of Exeter, UK, Rebecca Koll is examining conifer species to explore critical questions related to future forest fire dynamics.
Wildfire severity is on the rise globally as temperatures continue to increase. This is largely attributed to heightened heat, prolonged drought, and stronger winds, all of which elevate the risk of igniting timber when sparks occur.
Yet, Koll is among a team of researchers who believe that factors beyond drought are influencing fire risk. “Is climate change actually altering the properties of the plants? I’m quite certain it is,” she shares.
She posits that climate stress factors could be modifying leaf chemistry. With an increase in UV radiation, plants may produce more volatile compounds as a stress response.
While global initiatives aimed at restoring the ozone layer may mitigate UV radiation risks, studies indicate that climate change, especially the uptick in hot, clear days in Northern and Eastern Europe, has resulted in rising ground-level UVB levels in recent years. Models predict that this may escalate later in the century.
Koll is currently engaged in a project examining changes in leaf chemistry and flammability by exposing 87 conifer species to elevated UVB levels. Using climate-controlled chambers with optimal temperature and moisture regimens, they simulate exposure levels tripled compared to current conditions. After 4 to 8 weeks, the trees undergo analysis and combustion tests to evaluate their flammability.
“It’s designed to be an ideal environment. These plants are in a very favorable climate, except we bombard them with radiation,” Koll explains. “We’re observing early signs of yellowing in areas that should remain green. Their biochemical reactions during various tests are altering the chemistry of their leaves,” she elaborates.
The pivotal question remains whether these biochemical shifts will lead to heightened flammability and if they elucidate the increasing intensity of forest fires. “We’re already elevating UV levels in our natural settings,” Koll notes. “This may imply that the risk extends beyond drought to include the direct impacts on plant biology.”
Uncovering these insights could provide scientists with a clearer understanding of wildfire risks in the predominantly coniferous regions of the Northern Hemisphere. “This is fundamentally what leads to severe home destruction,” Koll states. “The natural surroundings are becoming increasingly flammable.”
This project is among the initial experiments conducted at the University of Exeter’s Global Weather Simulator, a newly established facility dedicated to plant research that opened this year. The climate control chambers can recreate variations in wind, precipitation, heat, and atmospheric variables to analyze how plants and insects respond to rapid climatic shifts.
Matthew Robson of the University of Cumbria emphasizes that this research may confirm the significance of leaf compound changes in determining certain tree species’ flammability. “The relative impact of these climatic factors on volatile and combustible carbon-rich compounds has not been thoroughly explored, which makes the current research at Exeter particularly intriguing,” he states.
In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) established an ambitious goal: to reduce global physical inactivity by 10% compared to 2010 levels by 2025. Now, the deadline has arrived, and despite initiatives aimed at leveraging the excitement of multiple Olympic Games, activity levels have not increased.
The latest data indicates that as of 2022, 31% of adults worldwide fail to meet physical activity guidelines, marking a rise from 26% in 2010. The situation is even graver among teens, with an alarming 81% not engaging in sufficient physical activity. We’re falling short of our targets.
What went wrong? Various factors, from public health policies to urban design, can be scrutinized regarding current strategies. Nevertheless, some experts are advocating for a more fundamental reassessment. Have we been misrepresenting the promotion of physical activity all along?
For years, public health campaigns have heavily relied on the narrative that “exercise is medicine” to encourage physical activity. This notion is familiar: engage in physical activity to combat illnesses like diabetes or cardiovascular diseases. This message is underpinned by strong scientific evidence, leading to the belief that health incentives are the most compelling motivation.
Yet, Benjamin Rigby, a public health researcher from Newcastle University, and his colleagues recently argued in an opinion piece that framing physical activity solely as a health preventive measure oversimplifies the myriad reasons individuals choose to be active. “The reality is people engage in movement for many reasons unrelated to avoiding illness,” Rigby states. “We play, laugh, explore, dance, and feel proud of ourselves. Ultimately, it’s about enjoyment and well-being.” Eliminating these positive motivators from health messaging may contribute to the lack of engagement.
Elsewhere, research continues to support the concept of shifting focus away from health-centric narratives. A study by University of Edinburgh researchers analyzed 123 public messages about physical activity, concluding that health concerns are not always effective motivators for prompting people to get active. The most impactful messages highlight the short-term rewards of proactive engagement rather than threats of future illness.
What if campaign messaging centered on the immediate benefits of physical activity? Some researchers recommend phrasing such as “small movements to enhance your mood,” focusing on mental health, or promoting “physical activity as an opportunity to connect with others.” Motivation matters.
Strong evidence shows individuals are more likely to maintain activity when it is enjoyable. Fun is associated with young people who regularly participate in sports. Remember Pokemon GO? That trend inspired avid users to walk an additional 1,473 steps daily on average, fueled by the excitement of “catching them all.” Given this evidence, why do public health messages overlook fun-focused motivations?
Sticking to health-oriented narratives appeals strongly to institutions. Their effects can be quantified, aligning neatly with the formal tone expected from such messages. However, with the 2030 target of reducing physical inactivity by 15% from 2010 levels approaching, now is the time for transformative change. It’s crucial to cease prescribing physical activity as a daunting chore and start presenting it as an opportunity for enjoyment, exploration, and connection.
Dawn Teh is a freelance health writer based in Australia.
Research conducted by the Wildlife Conservation Association highlights the diverse wildlife that frequents artificial watering holes in the Mayan forests of Guatemala.
Jaguars find respite from the heat in Guatemala’s artificial waterfall hole. Image credit: WCS Guatemala.
As temperatures rise in Mesoamerica, protected areas in northern Guatemala are confronting increasing ecological challenges, primarily due to severe water shortages negatively impacting local wildlife.
In response, the conservation organization has taken proactive measures to safeguard biodiversity in two key ecosystems: Laguna del Tigray National Park and Mirador Rio Azur National Park.
To tackle this pressing concern, strategic installations of artificial waterfall holes have been made throughout the parks.
Constructed from durable materials designed to endure extreme local conditions, these water sources are situated in the most vulnerable wildlife habitats, despite the logistical challenges of accessing remote jungle areas.
Camera traps have captured images of various species using these waterfowl, including tapirs, pumas, jaguars, deer, margays, and snakes.
These findings offer valuable insights into animal behavior under water stress and demonstrate how scientifically-informed conservation efforts can alleviate the impact of climate change on fragile ecosystems.
“During the dry season, many natural water sources completely dry up,” notes Ronnie Garcia Andru, director of the Biology Research Division at the Wildlife Conservation Association’s Guatemala Program.
“This drastically lowers the survival chances for numerous species.”
Initially intended to provide critical relief during periods of drought, monitoring with camera traps has shown that the artificial watering holes are also frequented in the rainy season.
This unexpected trend indicates that not only are some regions experiencing ongoing water shortages, but that these structures are becoming an integral part of the local wildlife’s habitat.
This adaptive maintenance strategy has been developed through collaboration.
“While artificial watering holes are not a permanent fix, they serve as a crucial tool for helping wildlife adapt to increasingly erratic environmental conditions,” Garcia Andru remarked.
“The success of this initiative highlights the significance of collaborative, science-driven approaches in the conservation of the Mayan forests, one of the largest tropical forests in the Americas.”
“As climate patterns continue to evolve, these partnerships will be essential to preserving the remarkable biodiversity of the region for future generations.”
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This article is derived from a press release provided by the Wildlife Conservation Association.
On Monday, the Trump administration advanced efforts to complicate access to a crucial legally mandated scientific evaluation regarding the risks climate change poses to the nation and its citizens.
Earlier this month, the official government website indicated its authority, stating that the peer-reviewed national climate assessment was moving offline. These platforms provide essential information for state and local governments and the public regarding what to expect from climate change and how to adapt accordingly. At that time, the White House stated that NASA would host the report to comply with the 1990 Act Requiring Reporting.
However, on Monday, NASA declared the cancellation of those plans.
According to NASA, “The USGCRP (the agency that oversaw and utilized the report) fulfills its statutory obligations by presenting the report to Congress. NASA has no legal requirement to host data from GlobalChange.gov,” meaning no coordinated assessments or data from governmental scientific offices will be routed to NASA.
On July 3, NASA released a statement affirming, “All existing reports will be accessible on the NASA website to maintain continuity in reporting.”
“This document was produced for taxpayers and includes vital information necessary for people to protect themselves in changing climates,” said the Chief Scientist of the Nature Reserve, a co-author of several previous national climate assessments.
Copies of past reports remain accessible at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s library, and you can view the latest reports and their interactive atlas here.
John Holden, a former scientific advisor to the Obama White House and a climate scientist, accused the administration of blatant misinformation regarding its intentions to censor or obscure the report.
“This new approach exemplifies a classic misunderstanding characteristic of the Trump administration,” Holden stated. “They initially aim to soothe outrage over the discontinuation of the GlobalChange.gov site and the disappearance of the national climate assessment, only to retract their reassurances without apology two weeks later.”
“They simply do not want the public to have access to detailed and scientifically validated information concerning climate change’s impact on agriculture, forests, fisheries, as well as storms, floods, wildfires, and coastal properties.
Holden emphasized the significance of these reports for state and local authorities and the general public, asserting that they “aid in understanding how climate change is affecting people’s lives, their loved ones, their properties, and their environments.”
“Trump is intentionally keeping people in the dark,” Holden asserted.
The most recent report published in 2023 revealed that climate change is impacting the safety, health, and livelihoods of individuals across the country in various ways, putting them at an increased risk.
Firefighter drops water on wildfires near Athens, Greece
Costa Subarutas/Anadoll via Getty Images
The severe heat waves experienced in June and July have resulted in 2,300 fatalities across London and 11 other European cities, nearly tripling the death toll attributed to climate change. While assessing the effects of climate change on heat-related deaths typically takes months, scientists have now devised a rapid method for analysis.
In late June, a series of high-pressure “thermal domes” led to extreme temperatures in Western and Central Europe, reaching around 35°C to 40°C in London. Paris recorded temperatures as high as 46°C, while parts of Spain and Portugal also faced similar conditions. The intense heat caused nuclear reactors to shut down in Switzerland, France, and Italy. In response to worker fatalities caused by the heat, outdoor work was prohibited during peak temperatures.
Researchers at the World Weather Attribution Network utilized weather data to assess how severe the heatwave would have been without climate change, comparing that with observed conditions. They integrated a study from the London Faculty of Hygiene, which illustrated the relationship between daily temperatures and increased death rates in European cities, along with their own findings. This framework was then applied to actual temperatures, calculating the potential fatalities due to climate change during this heat wave.
By estimating the period from June 23 to July 2, the researchers concluded that 2,300 individuals perished due to the heat in cities like Barcelona, Budapest, Frankfurt, Lisbon, London, Madrid, Milan, Paris, Rome, Sassari, and Zagreb. Analysis indicated that even under cooler climate conditions, there would have been approximately 700 deaths. However, climate change raised temperatures by as much as four degrees, contributing to an additional estimated 1,500 fatalities. Heat remains one of the deadliest forms of extreme weather, often exacerbating existing health conditions and going unrecognized on death certificates.
This marks the first study to swiftly quantify climate-related fatalities following a heat wave. Specifically, in London, climate change was responsible for 171 out of 235 heat-related deaths. “For me, [the impact of] climate change feels more tangible,” remarked team member Freedérique Otto from Imperial College London. “It is essential for policymakers to take action.”
“Currently, we’re nearing dangerously high temperatures affecting more people,” stated team member Ben Clark of Imperial College London. Notably, 88% of the fatalities were individuals over 65, the most vulnerable demographic.
Experts suggest that this study might underestimate the death toll, as it relies on data from cooler climates. Christie Ebi from Washington University in Seattle expressed concern over future extreme temperatures, stating, “I am uncertain about what will happen when we reach these extreme levels.”
In response to the rising temperatures, the government has issued more heat wave warnings; however, emergency response plans and infrastructure improvements are still necessary. In Milan, for instance, 499 deaths were reported, exacerbated by high air pollution levels that can worsen with rising temperatures. With 90% of fatalities linked to climate change, Madrid struggles with a lack of green spaces to mitigate urban heat effects.
Additionally, many buildings in London suffer from inadequate ventilation. Currently, measures such as providing drinking water at subway stations and halting non-essential vehicle usage during heat waves are being implemented. Otto emphasizes the importance of public awareness around heat risks, stating, “If you believe you are invincible, you’re not.”
Fig trees may excel at reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere
Raimund Link/Mauritius Images Gmbh/Alamy
Certain fig trees have the ability to transform significant quantities of carbon dioxide into solid forms, allowing carbon to remain in the soil even after the tree has perished. This indicates that fig trees used for timber or fruit cultivation could offer additional environmental benefits through this carbon sequestration process.
While all trees generally utilize carbon dioxide from the air, most of it is converted into structural molecules such as cellulose. However, some tree species also synthesize a crystalline substance known as calcium oxalate, and the bacteria within the trees and soil can convert it to calcium carbonate, a primary component of rocks like limestone and chalk.
Mineral carbon can remain in the soil significantly longer than organic matter derived from wood. Trees that store carbon in this manner include iron syrup (Milisia Excelsa), which is found in tropical Africa and is valued for its wood yet does not yield edible fruit.
Recently, Mike Rory from the University of Zurich and his team discovered that three fig species indigenous to Samburu County, Kenya, can also produce calcium carbonate through their own processes.
“Most trees generate calcium carbonate within the soil,” Laurie explains. “We [also] observe that high concentrations can transform the entire root structure into calcium carbonate in the soil, which is a remarkable finding.”
The research team initially identified the calcium carbonate-generating fig species by using a weak hydrochloric acid solution to detect its release from calcium carbonate. Subsequently, they could confirm the presence of calcium carbonate in the surrounding soil and analyze wood samples to pinpoint where calcium carbonate was being generated.
“What genuinely astonished me was how deep I was digging for [calcium carbonate],” Laurie remarked, as he presented his findings at the Goldschmidt conference in Prague, Czech Republic, this week.
Further investigations are needed to estimate the total carbon storage of these trees, the resilience of water in various climates, and the water requirement. Nevertheless, if fig trees can be integrated into future planting initiatives, they could serve as both a source of nourishment and a carbon sink, according to Laurie.
For many years, climate scientists and advocates have held onto a sense of optimism. They believe that once the impacts of global warming become undeniable, both individuals and governments will take significant action. The hope is that a major disaster—whether it be a fierce hurricane, extreme heat, or widespread flooding—will force a collective recognition of the gravity of the issue and lead to meaningful change. However, despite the increasing frequency of such disasters, climate change continues to rank low on voters’ agendas, and effective policy responses remain elusive.
This widespread inaction is often attributed to various political or structural barriers. Yet, decades of psychological studies indicate that more profound factors may be at play. The human brain often fails to recognize gradual changes.
Many areas are experiencing severe climate-related issues, but for the majority of the world, the changes manifest as slow and subtle shifts in daily weather.
This gradual nature of change presents challenges. People primarily assess climate issues based on personal experiences: there’s a heightened concern for an unusually hot day than when the weather feels typical. However, as conditions quietly worsen, the perception of “normalcy” shifts. This is often referred to as the boiling frog effect, where subtle and gradual changes fail to trigger alarm bells, leading to a state of indifference: akin to a frog in a pot of water that is gradually heated.
In 2020, we researched climate impacts in Princeton, New Jersey. This area is not burdened by wildfires or droughts, but it has seen a loss of something significant: winter ice skating. For many years, Carnegie Lake would freeze enough for skating, but now it seldom does.
Conversations with long-time residents and a review of local newspaper archives revealed a marked decline in ice skating on the lake over the last century, evoking a sense of loss. This disruption to winter traditions made Princeton’s experience with climate change feel more immediate, tangible, and personal.
We then posed the question: could binary climate indicators—such as “Lake Frozen” vs. “Lake Not Frozen”—serve as more effective alerts than graphs depicting gradual temperature increases?
I explored this concept through a series of experiments. Participants were presented with one of two graphs. One illustrated rising winter temperatures in a fictional town, while the other depicted whether the lake froze each year. Notably, both graphs represented the same underlying climate trends, but reactions varied significantly.
Those who viewed the binary “freeze or not” graphs consistently acknowledged that climate change had a more substantial impact compared to those who saw the temperature graphs. Follow-up studies analyzing data from North American and European lakes corroborated these findings. When climate impacts were communicated in stark terms, individuals responded more seriously.
What motivated this difference? We discovered that binary data creates an impression of sudden shifts. When people observed a series of winters where the lake froze juxtaposed with years it didn’t, they perceived a distinct “before” and “after,” despite the gradual nature of change.
Climate change transcends mere physical challenges; it also encompasses psychological dimensions. As long as we convey it in ways that resonate, we risk desensitizing our warning signals until it’s too late.
We encourage policymakers, journalists, and educators to leverage these insights. Highlighting specific losses that resonate—such as winters without ice skating, drought-damaged harvests, and summers plagued by wildfires—can be impactful. Utilize visuals that contrast “what we had” with “what we’ve lost.”
Allow people to witness the changes—it’s not merely about the slope of the line.
Grace Lew is affiliated with Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania, while Lachitt Dubay is affiliated with UCLA.
Climate change will lessen the availability of most staple crops, including corn
Jon Rehg/Shutterstock
Despite farmers’ best efforts to adapt, increasing global temperatures have the potential to significantly impact the world’s essential crops. Comprehensive analysis indicates that by the century’s end, for every degree of warming, global food supply may drop by nearly 121 kcal per person per day.
In a 3°C warming scenario—aligned with current trends—”It might mean skipping breakfast for everyone,” notes Andrew Hartgren from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
Hartgren and his team gathered data on the yields of six major staple crops globally, which account for over two-thirds of the world’s calories. “This represents one of the largest datasets currently available for high-resolution crop yields,” he states. They also incorporated local weather information from 54 different countries.
The researchers utilized this data to forecast how various crops would respond to climate changes and how farmers might adapt. “We examined historical data on how farmers have reacted to weather fluctuations,” Hartgren explains. This approach enabled the team to assess how different agricultural strategies might mitigate losses, like crop variety adjustments, enhancing irrigation, or increasing fertilizer use.
Except for rice, which thrives under warmer nighttime conditions, higher temperatures generally lead to considerable yield reductions. For instance, global corn yields are anticipated to decline by about 12% to 28% by the century’s end, contingent upon whether greenhouse gas emissions are moderate or extremely high compared to projections without climate change.
These statistics illustrate how farmers adjust to rising temperatures and the implications of potentially beneficial effects of climate change, like elevated carbon dioxide levels fertilizing crops. Both factors are significant. Without adjustments, for example, crop losses could reach a third by the century’s end under extreme warming scenarios, yet this won’t mitigate the majority of losses. “In a warmer future, the corn belt will still be relevant,” Hartgren asserts.
Wolfram Schlenker of Harvard University emphasizes that agricultural adaptations seldom completely offset crop losses due to climate change, with previous studies from specific regions suggesting similar conclusions. “The major strength of their research is its global perspective, compiling data from numerous countries,” he remarks.
The global approach reveals some fascinating patterns. For example, researchers observed that the most significant projected crop losses are not concentrated in low-income nations but rather in comparatively affluent agricultural hubs like the Midwest and Europe. “They aren’t inherently better suited than poorer countries,” Schlenker notes.
Michael Roberts from the University of Hawaii Manoa states that these findings align with the conclusions of a smaller study. However, he highlights considerable uncertainties, such as the extent of future climate change and the complexities of global food systems’ responses.
“What’s alarming is our lack of knowledge,” Roberts adds. “There’s significant uncertainty, much of which is negative. Losses could range from non-existent to catastrophic, potentially causing massive famines. It’s a sobering thought for many.”
The parents of the family were left devastated when their aspirations for change were dashed after they sought to safeguard their children in the Colorado Legislature last month and online activism targeting a drug dealer resulted in tragedy.
Among those parents was Lori Shot, who was instrumental in crafting the bill. Her 18-year-old daughter Annaly tragically took her own life in 2020 after engaging with content on TikTok and Instagram related to depression, anxiety, and suicide.
“When lawmakers sidestep votes and shift discussions to an insubstantial calendar date without accountability, it feels like a betrayal to us as parents.” “It’s a betrayal to my daughter and to all the other children we’ve lost.”
Had the law been enacted, it would have necessitated investigations and the removal of accounts engaged in gun and drug sales, or the sexual exploitation and human trafficking of minors on platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok. It also required a dedicated hotline for law enforcement and a 72-hour response timeframe for police inquiries, which would significantly increase obligations compared to current legal standards.
Additionally, the platforms would have had to report on the usage statistics of minors, including how often and for how long they interacted with content violating company policies. Several major tech firms have taken official stances regarding the bill. As noted in Colorado’s lobbying records, Meta’s long-time lobbying firm, Headwater Strategies, has registered its support for revising the bill. Conversely, Google and TikTok employed lobbyists to oppose it.
‘[Legislators] chose self-interest over the protection of children and families. ” Illustration: Andrei Cojocaru/Guardian
“We are deeply disheartened,” said Kim Osterman, whose 18-year-old son Max died in 2021. “[Legislators] prioritized their own interests over the safety of my children and family.”
Protection for Social Media Users (SB 25-086) passed both legislative chambers, only to be vetoed by Democrat Governor Jared Polis on April 24th. His veto was justified by concerns that the bill would “erode privacy, freedom, and innovation.” On April 25, the Colorado Senate voted to override the veto, but on April 28, the House chose to delay the vote until the end of the legislative session, effectively blocking the override and keeping the bill alive.
Originally, the bill had passed the Senate with a 29-6 margin and the House with a 46-18 margin. On April 25, the Senate voted 29-6 for an override, and lawmakers anticipated that the House would take up the matter later that day, believing that there was enough bipartisan support to successfully overturn the veto.
“It was a straightforward vote for people because our goal was clear: to safeguard children from the predatory practices of social media companies,” remarked Senator Lindsey Dorgerty, a Democrat and co-sponsor of the bill. She expressed her disappointment that House leaders chose to sidestep the vote on Friday.
Advocating parents blamed the failure of the bill on an unexpected 11-hour lobbying blitz by The Far Right Gun Owners Association in Colorado. Two state legislators and seven other legislative participants corroborated the parents’ claims.
An unprecedented last-minute campaign disrupts bipartisan consensus
The owner of Rocky Mountain Guns (RMGO) characterized the bill as government censorship related to the statute against “ghost guns” assembled from kits purchased online.
RMGO initiated an extensive social media and email campaign, rallying its 200,000 members to contact lawmakers and voice their opposition to the bill. Sources familiar with the workings of the Colorado State Capitol explained that the gun group’s outreach included social media and text campaigns that encouraged Republican constituents to reach out to their representatives in opposition.
“[Legislators] were inundated with calls and emails from activists. It was an all-out assault. A campaign declared, ‘This is a government censorship bill,'” they stated.
The group’s actions contributed to efforts preventing Republicans from backing the veto override, leading to the bill’s demise. According to ten individuals involved in the bill’s development and the legislative process, this lobbying effort appeared unexpectedly robust, fueled by organizations that had previously faced financial constraints. An anonymous source from the Colorado State Capitol shared insights with the Guardian, citing fears of retaliation from RMGO.
The House of Representatives postponed its vote until April 28th, providing RMGO time to amplify its campaign over the weekend. When lawmakers reconvened on Monday, the House voted 51-13 to delay the override until the legislative session concluded, effectively dissolving the effort.
“It was a coordinated full-scale attack proclaiming this as a government censorship bill.” Illustration: Andrei Cojocaru/Guardian
A significant text messaging initiative targeted registered Republican voters, alleging that the social media bill “forces platforms to enforce extensive surveillance of content shared on their platforms,” claiming violations of Colorado’s gun laws, and framing the legislation as an affront to First and Second Amendment rights, according to texts reviewed by the Guardian.
A recurring adversary
Established in 1996, RMGO claims a membership exceeding 200,000 activists. It is recognized as a far-right organization staunchly opposed to regulations on firearms. Dudley Brown, its founder and leader president of the National Gun Rights Association, diverges significantly from the perspective of the National Rifle Association (NRA). RMGO is criticized for employing tactics labeled as “bullying” and “extremist” against both Democrats and moderate Republicans. The group has not responded to requests for commentary regarding legislative measures.
RMGO is a well-known presence at the Colorado State Capitol, typically opposing gun control measures. Daugherty described their usual campaign tactics as “intimidating.” Following backlash for her involvement in a bill banning assault weapons earlier this year, she deactivated her social media account.
“While advocating for gun legislation at the Capitol, RMGO published images of me and other legislators on their website,” she noted. An RMGO tweet depicted Daugherty alongside a bold “Traitor” stamp.
The group disseminated misinformation regarding the bill’s implications on gun ownership, as reported by sources who participated in the legislative discussions.
“My support for the bill and the veto override stemmed from concerns about child trafficking and safeguarding children,” stated Republican Senator Rod Pelton, who voted in favor of overriding the veto in the Senate. “I did not subscribe to the entire argument pertaining to the second amendment.”
The bill garnered support from 23 district attorneys in Colorado as well as bipartisan backing from the state House of Representatives.
RMGO’s late-stage opposition to the social media bill deviated from its usual tactics. Typically, the organization weighs in on legislation early in the process, according to eight sources, including co-sponsors Daugherty and Representative Andy Boesenecker.
“Their surge of focused efforts caught my attention,” Boesenecker remarked. “It was curious to note that their resistance materialized so late in the process and appeared to be well-financed.”
In recent years, RMGO has experienced reduced activity attributed to financial difficulties that limited their legislative campaigning capacity. In a 2024 interview, the organization’s leader candidly acknowledged struggles with fundraising. Daugherty believes RMGO’s capacity for such a substantial outreach campaign would be unlikely without considerable funding. Others within Colorado’s political landscape echoed this sentiment.
“The Rocky Mountain Gun Owners had been largely ineffective in the legislature for several years due to financial constraints. Suddenly, they increased their influence, seemingly backed by substantial funds,” said Dawn Reinfeld, from a Colorado-based nonprofit focused on youth rights.
This context caused lawmakers to feel pressured, especially concerning primary elections in their districts, following RMGO’s recent social media attacks on supporters of the bill.
“The bill had given me hope that Avery’s legacy would make a difference, and its failure was incredibly disappointing.” Illustration: Andrei Cojocaru/Guardian
“There was a palpable concern among many about party affiliation; it certainly played a role,” remarked Dorgerty.
Aaron Ping’s 16-year-old son, Avery, passed away from an overdose in December after buying what he believed to be ecstasy on Snapchat, only to receive a substance laced with fentanyl instead. Ping viewed the organized opposition to the bill as a purposeful distortion.
“The narrative painted the bill as an infringement on gun rights, depicting it as merely a tool for targeting people purchasing illegal firearms online,” he stated.
Ping had testified in support of the bill alongside other families, recovering teens, and district attorneys back in February before the initial Senate vote.
“This bill carried the hope that Avery’s legacy would incite change; its rejection was truly disheartening,” Ping shared.
In the absence of federal action, states initiate online child safety legislation
A number of states, including California, Maryland, Vermont, Minnesota, Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico, South Carolina, and Nevada, have introduced legislation over the past two years aimed at enhancing online safety for minors. These initiatives encounter vigorous resistance from the technology sector, which includes extensive lobbying efforts and legal challenges.
Maryland successfully passed the Children’s Code bill in May 2024, marking it as the first state to enact such legislation. However, this victory may be short-lived. The high-tech industry coalition, NetChoice, representing companies such as Meta, Google, and Amazon, has already launched legal challenges against these measures.
In the meanwhile, federal efforts have stalled, with the Children’s Online Safety Act (KOSA) faltering in February after failing to pass the House despite years of modifications and deliberations. A newly revised version of the bill was reintroduced in Congress on May 14th.
California’s similar initiative, the age-appropriate design code law, which mirrors UK legislation, was halted in late 2023 following a NetChoice injunction citing potential First Amendment infringements.
Climate change is already impacting our lives negatively
Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP via Getty Images
When considering the dangers posed by climate change, floods and violent storms might come to mind, or even unprecedented heat waves. A study conducted in the latter half of 2024 revealed that most Americans view extreme weather as the chief climate threat. Yet, climate change disrupts daily life in many other persistent ways.
“These events significantly impact people’s lives but often don’t make headlines,” states Jennifer Carman from Yale University.
These more subtle consequences of climate change may seem trivial compared to disasters, like worse allergies or increased commute times, but they collectively signify major shifts, according to Carman. Understanding these issues is crucial for individuals to brace for climate changes affecting their everyday experiences. Remarkably, around half of Americans report feeling the effects of climate change a decade ago—double the number of those who don’t.
“Not everyone is affected by severe events,” Carman remarks. “However, everyone experiences the impacts of daily life consistently.”
Climate change drives up food prices and more
Elevated temperatures associated with climate change inflate prices. In a study by Fridrikik and her team at the European Central Bank, they identified strong correlations between temperature and numerous global price indices. They discovered that higher average temperatures lead to both inflation and extreme weather, particularly in equatorial regions, with impacts persisting year-round.
They projected that by 2035, this would escalate annual price inflation rates by 0.5% to 1.2% for various goods, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture is notably susceptible to weather variations, meaning its price impacts may be about twice as significant. “This unpredictability complicates food production,” Carman notes.
Air conditioning usage is rising and becoming more costly
Increasing temperatures escalate air conditioning expenses. In hotter regions, users will need to operate their air conditioners longer and more frequently. This demand can exceed affordable energy bills.
Individuals in previously temperate areas, such as London or the US’s Pacific Northwest, find themselves needing to install air conditioning for the first time. Globally, soaring cooling expenses negate any reductions in heating costs.
Hot weather disrupts sleep
Even with air conditioning, high nighttime temperatures can hinder sleep quality. Research by Renjie Chen from the University of Hudan, along with colleagues, assessed over 20 million nights of sleep data from hundreds of thousands in China. They found that a 10°C rise in night temperature could raise the likelihood of insufficient sleep by 20%. Under severe emissions scenarios, they estimate that each individual in China might lose about 33 hours of sleep per year by the century’s end.
This isn’t just a localized issue. Research by Kelton Minor from Columbia University showed that elevated nighttime temperatures correlated with reduced sleep across tens of thousands of individuals in 68 countries. Findings suggest higher nighttime temperatures result in decreased sleep—mainly affecting older adults and women in hotter, poorer regions.
Climate change intensifies air pollution
Air pollution poses serious health risks, whether from PM2.5 particles or ozone. Recent research indicates that combining higher temperatures with existing pollutants can exacerbate the harmful effects of air quality, particularly among those who spend extended time outdoors.
Historically, fossil fuel-driven pollution has decreased as power grids have become cleaner, yielding public health benefits. However, as climate change fuels more frequent and severe wildfires, decades of progress may be undone, exposing communities to wildfire smoke. One study forecasts that increased smoke exposure could lead to around 700,000 additional deaths in the U.S. by 2050.
Supporting evidence aligns with anecdotal perceptions; William Andreg from the University of Utah and his team found that the pollen season in North America has lengthened since the 1990s, with overall pollen levels increasing by 21%. The majority of these changes have been attributed to human-induced warming.
Travel delays accumulate, whether long-haul or daily
Climate change is increasingly responsible for weather-related interruptions in transportation systems, leading to billions of wasted hours.
For instance, Valerie Mueller and colleagues from Arizona State University studied the impact of routine coastal flooding on commute times in the eastern U.S. They estimated individuals experience about 23 minutes of delays annually due to these floods, which is double the time recorded 20 years ago. Their analysis revealed these delays stem mainly from rising sea levels rather than extreme storm surges.
While a handful of extra minutes might seem negligible, it accumulates to billions of lost hours overall. Over the coming decades, further sea level rise could escalate delays to hundreds of minutes per person annually.
Weather-induced delays are also increasing in train services and airports. The International Air Transport Association reported that weather-related delays rose from 11% of total delays in 2012 to 30% in 2023. Additionally, even if passengers board their flights, climate change can exacerbate certain turbulence, contributing to rougher flights.
Severe thunderstorms in April resulted in historic downpours and flooding across Arkansas, Kentucky, and other states, exacerbated by climate change.
This information comes from the World Weather Attributes Project, a consortium of scientists studying major weather events in relation to climate change.
From April 3 to April 6, heavy rainfall hit the southeastern U.S., leading to widespread flooding, flood warnings for over 70 million individuals, at least 15 fatalities, the sweeping away of vehicles, and train derailments.
By utilizing climate models alongside historical data, researchers examined storm systems across eight affected states and concluded that the current weather patterns were approximately 9% more intense due to global warming, with a 40% increased likelihood compared to a scenario without such warming.
Ben Clark, a researcher at Imperial College London, stated, “We conclude that the existing 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming has intensified the extreme rainfall leading to flooding in the region. A warmer atmosphere retains more moisture.”
The outcome was severe flooding in Frankfort, Kentucky, along with a rainy day in the Midwest on April 7th. Leandro Lozada/AFP Getty Images file
The 1.3 degrees reference indicates how much warmer the planet has become in Celsius since humanity began releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere post-Industrial Revolution—a conversion of approximately 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
Clark noted that the probability estimates from the group are conservative. The researchers identified a unique weather configuration that contributed to the extreme rainfall.
Shell Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, a nonprofit news organization involved in the report, explained that a low-pressure system interacting with a high-pressure ridge caused the thunderstorms to repeatedly affect the same areas in the Southeast and Midwest.
“This front was the route through which these storms moved, and there was also a trigger mechanism. The thunderstorms accumulated rain on already saturated soil,” Winkley noted. “This event is a fascinating intersection of weather and climate change.”
According to Winkley, the National Weather Service issued the third highest weather warning on April 2.
“By the end of the day, the National Weather Service had released 728 separate thunderstorm and tornado warnings from various offices, with numerous locations experiencing extreme rainfall between April 3 and April 6, with some areas seeing up to 16 inches,” Winkley explained.
After a significant storm in Portageville, Missouri on April 7th, vehicles navigate through flooded streets. Scott Olson/Getty Images File
Upon reviewing historical rainfall from April, researchers indicated that similar storm systems are anticipated every century in the current warm climate.
Gerald Brotzge, a Kentucky climatologist and professor at the University of Kentucky Western University, initially approached such studies with skepticism, particularly those linking large-scale flooding to climate change without accounting for unique weather setups. However, he found this study credible.
Brotzge remarked, “It appears they conducted a thorough analysis. In this instance, a stagnant boundary allowed thunderstorms to constantly form in the same locality—an accurate observation.”
Brotzge noted that Kentucky has warmed by nearly 1.8 degrees Celsius (approximately 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) over the last 130 years and has been experiencing increased rainfall.
“Our annual rainfall has risen by about 10%,” Brotzge stated. “Half of our ten wettest years have occurred since 2011, with 2011 being the wettest and 2018 as the second wettest.”
The World Weather Attribution is a team of scientists who quickly assess the influence of climate change on extreme weather events. Their methodology has undergone peer review, though some analyses are not immediately reviewed. Previous studies by the group on heatwaves, wildfires, and hurricanes have also faced academic scrutiny.
Climate change contributes to events like the Marshall Fire in Colorado, which devastated 1,000 homes in December 2021
Jim West/Alamy
The Trump administration has dismissed nearly 400 researchers involved in the forthcoming US national climate assessment. This action may delay the completion of a critical report detailing the impacts of climate change on the nation.
“The Trump administration has carelessly undermined a vital US climate science report by prematurely discarding its authors without justification or a plan,” said Rachel Cleetus, representing the concerned coalition of scientists.
This move significantly hampers progress on the sixth National Climate Assessment, designed to inform federal and state governments about climate change risks and their implications. A law enacted by Congress in 1990 mandates that these assessments be produced every four years.
Although the next report isn’t due until 2027, extensive work has already begun, and the document may exceed 1,000 pages. The latest review, published in 2023, discussed the increasing difficulty of ensuring safe homes, healthy families, dependable public services, sustainable economies, and thriving ecosystems amidst climate challenges.
In early April, the Trump administration terminated a contract with a consulting firm responsible for coordinating research for upcoming assessments under the US Global Change Research Program. This follows numerous cuts at scientific institutions contributing to these efforts, as well as other actions restricting climate and weather research.
Despite the challenges, the report’s authors (mostly volunteers) were eager to collaborate, according to Dustin Mulvaney, who was focused on the Southwest section of the report at San Jose State University. “Many of us thought, ‘We can still do this!'”
However, with all the authors now released, completing the report appears unlikely.
A NASA spokesman, responsible for the global change research program, chose not to comment. Yet, some report authors stated to New Scientist that they received a brief notification indicating that all authors had been dismissed as agents assessed the “scope” of the evaluations.
The notification mentioned “future opportunities” for contributions. Ultimately, Congress legally requires these assessments, and the administration can still appoint new authors. Earlier reports emphasized climate risks, while new analyses will likely focus more on how the US is responding to climate change through reduced emissions and infrastructure adaptation.
Even if the report is eventually published, it may lack the rigor and reliability found in previous assessments, according to Mijin Cha, who was working on emission reductions at the University of California, Santa Cruz. “Now they’ve completely compromised it.”
“I think everyone is really disheartened by this situation,” she expressed.
Melting Arctic ice. Record-breaking wildfires across multiple states. Countries experiencing average warming are warming at a twice the rate of other regions worldwide.
Yet, when Canadians head to the polls on Monday, climate change isn’t even among the top ten issues for voters. Recent surveys indicate this shift.
“That’s not the focus of this election,” remarked Jessica Green, a political scientist at the University of Toronto specializing in climate-related topics.
The election revolves around a collective desire to choose a leader capable of standing up to Donald J. Trump, who poses a threat to Canada amidst a trade war, if not a full annexation as the “51st state.”
Leading the polls is liberal Mark Carney, who boasts decades of experience in climate policy. He served for five years as a UN envoy on climate action and finance, orchestrating a coalition of banks committed to halting carbon dioxide emissions through financing practices by 2050.
Despite his impressive background, Carney hasn’t prioritized climate change in his campaign. Following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, one of Carney’s initial actions was to eliminate fuel taxes based on emission levels, including gasoline taxes.
While many Canadians have redirected the resulting funds into rebate checks, Mr. Carney appears to misunderstand the policy, labeling it as “too divided.”
This decision, coupled with similarities between his Conservative opponents, Pierre Poilievre and Trump, has contributed to Carney’s rise in the polls.
“Carney made a clever move by abolishing the consumer carbon tax, which was widely unpopular and essentially formed the basis of Poilievre’s campaign against him,” said Dr. Green. “It took the wind out of the Conservative Party’s sails.”
Mr. Carney is acutely aware of political dynamics. In a recent television discussion, he mentioned to Poilievre, “I spent years advocating for Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax.”
Poilievre is a staunch supporter of Canada’s vast oil and gas industry, making Canada the fourth-largest oil producer and the fifth-largest gas producer globally. Yet, unlike Trump, he recognizes the necessity of reducing greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change.
“Canadian oil and clean natural gas must replace coal globally, allowing countries like India and others in Asia to utilize gas instead of dirty coal,” he stated at a recent press conference during his campaign.
However, Carney’s proposals don’t significantly differ. He envisions Canada as a “superpower of both traditional and clean energy.” His platform suggests reforms like bolstering the carbon market and expediting approvals for clean energy initiatives.
Perhaps the most significant distinction between the candidates lies in their views on Canada’s oil and gas emission caps and the tax on industrial emissions, both defended by Trudeau.
Poilievre aims to eliminate these in accordance with industry demands, whereas Carney intends to maintain them. The Canadian Climate Research Institute states that the Industrial Carbon Tax reduces emissions by at least three times more than the consumer tax, making it the most effective policy deployed to decrease emissions leading up to 2030.
Canada ranks among the world’s highest per capita greenhouse gas emitters and is not on track to meet its commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement. By 2030, the aim is to achieve a minimum of 40-45% reductions from 2005 levels, but the latest national emissions Inventory Report indicates just an 8.5% decrease through 2023.
The heavy storm system that floods the central and southeastern US with heavy rain and winds fits a wider pattern as rainfall has increased over the eastern US half has increased in recent decades.
Data from the National Maritime and Atmospheric Administration from 1991 to 2020 show that on average the eastern part of the country received more rain, on average, than in the 20th century. At the same time, precipitation decreased in the west.
The sharp East-West division is consistent with predictions from climate scientists who expect wet areas to be wet, with dry areas becoming dry as the world warms.
Without further analysis, individual storms cannot be linked to climate change, but warming the air will result in greater rainfall. This is because warm air has the ability to retain more moisture than cooler air, and has the potential to be fueled due to overall average precipitation, and more intense storms.
The world’s temperatures are increasing year by year, driven by the combustion of fossil fuels that send greenhouse gases that warm the planets into the atmosphere. According to a recent report, the 10 people have been the hottest recordkeeping for nearly 200 years. World Weather Organization.
“When there are these very heavy rain events, trends refer to the heavy trends of these intense events,” said Deanna, an associate professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign University.
Severe flooding could be an indirect effect of warming air and increased moisture, according to Gerald Brotzge, a Kentucky national climate scientist and director of the Kentucky Climate Center. If conditions stall a storm system, it can cause heavy rain in the same area, increasing the risk of flooding.
This is what happened when the storm recently stagnated in the region. “I think it’s a once-at-a-time event based on the amount and area covered,” Brotzge said.
Mark Jarvis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Louisville, Kentucky, described the storm as two. It brought tornadoes, strong winds and hail to the front end, then stalled and dropped historic amounts of rainfall. Western Kentucky, who saw some of the most serious effects of the storm, “it was in the eyes of the bull,” he said.
Heavy rain and flooding are common in Ohio Valley in late winter and early spring, but the system is as common as it is “very rare” for rain. “That’s what you normally see in hurricanes and tropical systems,” he said..
Storm damage is constantly happening, but the possibility that climate change is increasing them is Observed weather trendstherefore Mr.
She said that even in the western half of the United States, which is generally dry, the coming precipitation tends to drop at more extreme levels.
She called it “very eye-opening,” adding, “it’s not particularly comfortable to think we have more of this.”
During the winter there was a little bird gush to lift my heart. There are no occasional caw caw, chickadee dee of chickadee, big songs of little carolina rens that stay on our Pennsylvania farms throughout the winter, but no great horned owl courtship calls, nor wooden thrush or Baltimore orioles. Still, I was delighted with the music that was left behind.
However, we just heard the first notes of our first returning songbird, and with a red-winged blackbird, the snowdrop began to protrude from the ground.
The other day I forced their flowers to move last fall potted tulips and hyacinths from the unheated side of the barn into the warmth of the garden room. However, the vegetable garden is a puddle of icy mud, and the flowerbeds are still finely covered with leaves, showing little signs of life. The boxwood is covered in burlap and the snow fence is covered around trees and shrubs to prevent deer from being devoured.
The deer, which has changed from the color of milk chocolate to dark, breaks through the makeshift deterrent, eating Ee, Eunee Mauss, Treehouse, and this winter, Holly. The squirrels are running around joining their radar, but the chipmunks are still nowhere to be seen. I think they are in their dens that I think opossums, raccoons and bears are.
I’ve been waiting for a greenhouse, but now I’m hoping to hibernate in the winter and take a break from sowing, potting and growing. To walk through snowy forests and observe animal tracks, study ice patterns in the pond and make it seasonal. I would like to read in the Fire and Skilled Garden Catalog. Imagine what the garden will look like next year, and hope that next year will be better than last time, as all gardeners do. As Vita Sackville-West wrote in her poem, “The Garden:”
The gardener dreams of his own special alloy
Possibility and impossible.
But what is possible now? Looking back at last year’s terrible season, how do you adapt to the changes I witness?
A year ago, the winter was very warm, the shrub barely died, and last spring, a welcome sight dripping with leaves, but not normal. Spring was so hot that I missed out on a nice, cool window for the transplant. Early season, I didn’t know when to plant ruthless vegetables, and when to produce soft plants, not 85 degrees.
“After the danger of frost” is a general wisdom, but when is that? my Plant hardiness zone I’ve recently shifted as the coldest temperatures in my area are three degrees higher than in 2012. But even that new guidance didn’t help me.
Mid May felt like mid-June. It was then arriving on May 29th.
Anyway, I planted poppies in April (they like cool weather), but the seeds were washed away by the flood. There was a drought between June and November. The grass was brown. Dogwood and Tulip Poplar lost their leaves in July. My vegetable garden resembles a cracked riverbed. The soil was very hard and weeding was almost impossible.
The stream was dry so I saw deer walking into the pond and drinking for the first time in 36 years. Small food was available for them, so they distorted to our garage and ate deer-bearing lavender. Walking through the forest, I was impressed by the lack of growth underneath, especially the huge patch of nettle nettle from North American origin, the host plant for Admiral Akagi and the butterfly in Eastern Comma. Chanteles never bear fruit in normal places. I was worried that our spring would dry out.
Pennsylvania saw record wildfires in the fall. Usually, the two lilacs that appear in the spring bloom in October, and in late November I was harvesting something that I had not yet grown.
All of this reminds me of a radio show called “Piano Puzzlers.” My husband and I listen to it on Saturday mornings. Composer Bruce Adolf rewrites songs that are familiar to the classic composer’s style. He changes the tempo, harmony, or mode of the tune, and the contestants try to name the song and the composer. Imagine “a bit of a jude” in Brahms style. Somewhere in my brain, the song sounds familiar, but something is off. The music is misplaced. Sometimes I guess correctly. In many cases, it is not.
Climate change gardening is the same. Confusing and there are many speculations.
What should a home gardener do?
“The only predictable thing is that it becomes unpredictable,” said Sonja Skelly, director of education at Cornell Botanical Gardens in Ithaca, New York, “it was crazy too.”
Last spring was hot in Ithaca, so vegetable gardeners began planting two weeks before the frost-free date on May 31st. Extreme temperature fluctuations were then created, but the plants that just started were better as they were established. Things planted on the target day were stunted and were in poor growth period. “A good lesson,” Dr. Skelly said. The line covering that allows gardeners to get and grow plants later in the season “is really important in a climate like ours,” she said.
Covered crops such as millet, sorghum and black-eyed peas have been successful in botanical gardens. They improve moisture retention, reduce weeds, reduce erosion, and limit negative microorganisms in the soil. The birds love them, Dr. Skelly said.
She recommended planting together what the Haudeno Sauny people call three sisters, corn, beans and squash. The system produces better yields per hectare than any monoculture crop system, she said.
Drip irrigation is another solution, Dr. Skelly said. “It adds moisture where it is needed at the roots,” she said. The water is slowly released and remains laid down, and does not escape as with manual watering or using sprinklers.
“Observe, take notes, ask questions, ask for answers,” advised Dr. Skelly. “What are your neighbors watching?” I’ve been working on this issue for a while, learning through going to local botanical gardens, public gardens and nature centres. “Try to keep the information cycle running and talk to friends, family and neighbors as a way to help you understand it. That’s very important,” she said.
Dr. Skelly believes it is important for home gardeners to truly understand their plants. “Climate change may be a way to get to know our gardens much better,” she said. “We have to do it.”
For a long time I relied on experts who taught me how to garden responsibly. Do not harm the environment. I have learned to plant a variety of plants, including pollinator natives, and celebrate native weeds like Freeben. I’m practicing planting companions. I don’t spray pesticides or pesticides, and instead use compost, I make my own from comfrey and stinging nettles instead. I wish I could buy plants from something other than plastic.
But the more we contemplate gardening in an age of climate change, the more we believe our home gardeners must find many solutions for themselves. Much of gardening is trial and error, and unstable weather patterns mean that we must experiment more to do our own research. Essentially, we must become citizen scientists in our own vegetable patches and flowerbeds.
Cornell Botanic Garden has a garden for climate demonstrations, but in fact we all do. None of us had experienced this. And in the end, we’re all together. You will navigate a strange new world of digging the soil and growing things.
The collection of Daryln Brewer Hoffstot’s essay, “A Farm Life: Observations from Fields and Forests,” was published by Stackpole Books.
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