How Termination Shocks Could Intensify the Economic Impact of Climate Change

Solar geoengineering: A solution to save ice sheets with potential risks

Credit: Martin Zwick/REDA/Universal Images Group (via Getty Images)

Research indicates that an abrupt halt to solar geoengineering may lead to a “termination shock,” causing a rapid temperature rise that could make the initiative more expensive than continuing without intervention.

With greenhouse gas emissions on the rise, there’s increasing attention on solar radiation management (SRM), which cools the planet by dispersing sulfur dioxide aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight.

However, sustained solar geoengineering is crucial for centuries; otherwise, the hidden warming could quickly reemerge. This rebound, referred to as termination shock, leaves little time for adaptation and could catalyze critical climate events such as ice sheet collapses.

According to Francisco Estrada, researchers from the National Autonomous University of Mexico assessed the risk of inaction on climate change compared to solar geoengineering approaches.

Projections suggest that if emissions aren’t curtailed, temperatures may soar by an average of 4.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, leading to approximately $868 billion in economic damages. In contrast, a hypothetical stratospheric aerosol injection program initiated in 2020 could limit warming to around 2.8°C, potentially reducing these costs by half.

Nevertheless, if the aerosol program ends abruptly in 2030, resulting in a temperature rebound of 0.6 degrees Celsius over eight years, economic damages could surpass $1 trillion by century’s end. While estimations vary, Estrada states, “The principle remains consistent: the termination shock will be significantly worse than inaction.”

Estrada’s research innovatively gauges damage not only by global warming levels but also by the speed at which temperatures rise, according to Gernot Wagner from Columbia University.

Wagner warns that solar geoengineering may be riskier than it appears. “This highlights a critical concern,” he notes.

Make Sunsets, a Silicon Valley startup, has already launched over 200 sulfur dioxide-filled balloons into the stratosphere and offers emission offsets for sale. A recent launch in Mexico prompted governmental threats to ban geoengineering activities.

Israel’s Stardust Co., Ltd. has secured $75 million in funding and is lobbying the U.S. government to explore solar geoengineering options. A recent survey revealed that two-thirds of scientists anticipate large-scale SRM could occur this century, as reported by New Scientist.

According to studies, it would take at least 100 aircraft to cool the Earth by 1°C through aerosol injection, releasing millions of tons of sulfur dioxide annually, unimpeded by geopolitical conflicts or unforeseen events.

Presently, major nations like the United States are undermining global climate cooperation, but researchers highlight that such collaboration is essential to prevent termination shock and potentially realize the benefits of SRM.

Analysis of varying parameters suggests that aerosol injections could mitigate climate damage only if the annual probability of cessation is extremely low. In scenarios allowing for a gradual stop over 15 years, SRM might be viable.

If countries successfully reduce emissions, only minimal geoengineering cooling may be necessary, rendering aerosol injection beneficial with a maximum outage probability of 10%. This indicates a potential 99.9% chance of failure over a century, but manageable temperature recovery remains plausible in low emissions scenarios.

This need for international cooperation reveals what Estrada describes as the “governance paradox” of solar geoengineering: “We must ensure extremely low failure rates and possess effective governance to mitigate adverse outcomes.” However, he adds, “If we effectively reduce greenhouse gases, the need for SRM diminishes.”

These findings challenge the notion that solar geoengineering might lead to irresponsible development, as some have suggested, according to Chad Baum from Aarhus University. Funding for this new research was provided by the Degrees Initiative, aimed at supporting geoengineering studies in vulnerable low-income nations.

Baum stated, “We intend to complete all stages of this study, incorporating feedback from impacted communities.”

Despite this, Wagner emphasizes the imperative for further exploration into geoengineering’s trade-offs given the rise in emissions and their consequences: “We are approaching a critical juncture.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Is Britain Becoming an Economic Colony?

THalf a century ago, protests erupted in the American colonies against British authority, triggered by Congress’ tea sales monopoly and the antics of a proud king. Fast forward to today, and it is Britain that finds itself under the influence of American tech giants (companies so powerful they operate as monopolies) and an unpredictable president. Strangely, Britain appears comfortable with this scenario, sometimes even willing to sustain its economic reliance. The UK isn’t alone in yielding to American corporate power, but it serves as a prominent example of why nations must collaborate to address the dominance of such hegemons.

The current age of American tech monopolization took root in the 2000s, when the UK, like many nations, became heavily reliant on a few major American platforms such as Google, Facebook, and Amazon. It was a period marked by optimism around the internet as a democratizing force, with the belief that these platforms would benefit everyone. During the 1990s, the vision was simple yet appealing: anyone with a passion or skill could go online and earn a living from it.

America’s edge in technology wasn’t a result of a single policy. However, it reflected a choice made by each nation, as highlighted by China’s decision to block foreign websites and develop its own. While such actions might be easier for authoritarian regimes, they also established an industrial strategy that left China as the sole major economy with its independent digital ecosystem.

This pattern continued from the 2000s into the 2010s. Amazon and Microsoft quickly dominated cloud computing. Within Europe and the UK, no significant competitors emerged to challenge platforms like Uber or Airbnb. While these companies have undeniably offered convenience and entertainment, the wealth generated by the Internet hasn’t been distributed as widely as many anticipated. Instead, American firms captured the majority, becoming the most valuable companies in history. This trend is repeating itself now with artificial intelligence, where the significant profits appear to be heading once more to Silicon Valley.

Why was there minimal pushback? Essentially, Britain and Europe adhered to the principles of free trade and globalization. According to this ideology, nations should concentrate on their strengths. Just as it made sense for Britain to import French wine or Spanish ham, relying on American technology rather than developing it domestically seemed logical. Instead, the focus shifted to Britain’s strengths, such as finance, creative industries, and whisky production.

However, when it comes to these new platforms, the comparison to standard trade collapses. There’s a crucial distinction between fine wine and the technology that supports the entire online economy. While Burgundy might be costly, it doesn’t siphon value or gather advantageous data from every interaction. The trade theories of the 1990s blurred the lines between ordinary goods and those integral to the market infrastructure necessary for buying and selling. Google and Amazon epitomize this. A more fitting analogy would be allowing foreign companies to construct toll roads throughout the country and charge whatever they wish for usage.

Now, as we build artificial intelligence, we witness a similar scenario. During President Trump’s state visit in September, the UK confidently highlighted investments by Google and Microsoft in “data centers”—expansive facilities filled with computer servers powering AI systems. Yet, data centers represent the most basic level of the AI economy, serving solely to send profits back to U.S. headquarters.

In a different scenario, the UK could have emerged as a genuine leader in AI. At one point, American researchers trailed behind their British and French counterparts. Yet, in a move that neither the U.S. nor the Chinese governments would have permitted, the UK willingly allowed the sale of many major AI assets and talents over the past decade—Google’s acquisition of DeepMind serves as a prominent example. What’s left is an AI strategy that primarily involves supplying electricity and land for data centers. It feels akin to being invited to a gathering only to discover you’re there to pour drinks.

If technology platforms are indeed comparable to toll roads, a rational step would be to mitigate their burden, potentially by instituting toll caps or imposing charges for data extraction. Yet, no country has taken such actions. We accept the platform’s existence, but we struggle to regulate its influence like we would with traditional utilities. The European Union has made strides through digital market legislation that manages how dominant platforms interact with their reliant businesses. Meanwhile, the U.S. government finds itself at the behest of its own tech giants, with Congress stuck in inertia.

Should the UK choose an alternative route to combat this economic colonization and exploitation, it could collaborate with the European Union and possibly Japan to devise a unified strategy. This strategy would compel platforms to support local businesses and cultivate alternatives to established U.S. technologies. However, thus far, the UK, along with other nations subjected to American hegemony, has been slow to adapt, clinging to a 90s approach even though evidence suggests this is no longer effective.

The reality is we are now in a more strategic and cynical era. Regardless, a far more rigorous antitrust framework is necessary than what we’ve observed thus far. Across the globe, it’s evident that a more diverse array of companies from various nations would lead to a better world. The alternatives are not only costly but also foster political risks, resentment, and dependency. We can aspire to more than a future where what passes for economic freedom is merely a choice between reliance on the United States or dependency on China.

Tim Wu is a former special assistant to President Biden and the author of the book The Age of Extraction: How Tech Platforms Conquered the Economy and Threatened Our Future Prosperity (Bodley Head).

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Source: www.theguardian.com

More Britons View AI as an Economic Threat Instead of an Opportunity, Tony Blair’s Think Tank Finds

A think tank associated with Tony Blair suggests that the public perceives artificial intelligence more as an economic threat rather than a benefit.

The Tony Blair Institute cautioned that these poll findings could jeopardize Keir Starmer’s vision for the UK to become an AI “superpower,” urging the government to persuade the populace about the positive impacts of this technology.

According to a survey conducted by TBI, 38% of Britons see AI as a potential economic risk, while only 20% regard it as an opportunity. The survey, which included over 3,700 adults, also revealed that a lack of trust is the primary barrier to AI adoption.

Jakob Mökander, the director of science and technology policy at TBI, stated that the UK’s primary path to becoming an AI superpower lies in adopting cutting-edge technology. He expressed concerns that the current poll results jeopardize this aspiration.

Mökander noted, “A nation can achieve AI superpower status either by leading in development or by being a frontrunner in adoption.” He acknowledged that while the UK will not lead in development—domains dominated by the US and China—it can excel in adoption. However, he emphasized that without fostering public trust in technology, this goal is unattainable.

The UK government has identified AI as a cornerstone of its economic growth strategy, aiming for the country to become “one of the great AI superpowers” in the near future.

Nonetheless, there is considerable voter concern regarding the economic ramifications and job implications associated with AI. Entities such as TBI, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predict that AI—defined as systems that can undertake tasks typically requiring human intelligence—will profoundly affect the labor market. TBI estimates that AI may lead to a shift of between 1 million and 3 million private sector jobs in the UK, although they anticipate that the total job loss will be mitigated as technology creates new positions.

Meanwhile, recruitment agencies have indicated that sectors expected to be influenced by AI, like graduate recruitment, have not yet experienced significant changes attributable to AI.

Furthermore, TBI’s polling indicates a divide between AI users and non-users, revealing that more than half of those unacquainted with the technology perceive it as a risk. In contrast, only a quarter of those who regularly use AI regard it as a threat.

Mökander stated that there is a pressing need to articulate potential benefits, like establishing AI reliability through regulations, shortening NHS wait times, and allowing individuals more family time.

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Regarding the need for regulations akin to those for vaccines, Mökander emphasized educating the public and promoting positive campaigns to cultivate healthy perceptions.

The TBI has garnered significant funding from tech magnate Larry Ellison and released findings indicating the advantageous applications of AI. The report suggests measuring AI’s beneficial impact accurately and promoting responsible regulations to foster AI skill development.

A spokesperson for the UK government stated that public trust is vital for effective AI utilization and highlighted initiatives aimed at enhancing AI skills and recruitment.

“With approximately 10 million workers projected to use AI in their daily roles by 2035, it is crucial that the workforce is equipped with both the skills and confidence to engage with this technology,” the spokesperson remarked.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Increasing Economic Impact of Wildfires, Severe Storms, and Earthquakes

A report published on Tuesday by German multinationals revealed that weather-related disasters in the first half of this year caused $93 billion in damages within the United States. insurance company.

An analysis from Munich RE, the largest reinsurer in the world, indicated that over 70% of the global damages from this year’s weather disasters occurred in the United States, leading to a burden of $22 billion on uninsured Americans and their local governments.

The report underscores the increasing economic impact of wildfires, severe storms, and other extreme weather events both in the US and globally. It also highlights the escalating insurance crisis in nations frequently afflicted by such disasters.

“Approximately 90% of all industry losses were observed, with $72 billion out of $80 billion occurring in the US,” stated Tobias Grimm, chief climate scientist at Munich RE. “That is remarkable.”

The catastrophic wildfires in Southern California in January ranked as the most expensive disaster in the country during the first half of 2025. The two major fires, responsible for at least 30 fatalities and displacing thousands, swept through the Pacific Ocean’s Pallisad and Altadena neighborhoods.

Munich RE estimated the wildfire losses at $53 billion, including costs affecting uninsured residents. The reinsurer noted that these flames in the Los Angeles area resulted in “the highest wildfire loss ever recorded.”

The significant economic and social impacts of wildfires can be partly attributed to the increasing development in fire-prone areas.

“In many instances, losses are growing due to property developments causing damage,” Grimm explained. “People continue to reside in high-risk zones.”

Urbanization in disaster-prone areas can similarly escalate the costs associated with other weather-related events, like hurricanes and floods, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change.

Research indicates that climate change is becoming increasingly frequent as temperatures rise and drought conditions worsen. Consequently, the intensity of wildfires is also increasing.

A report by the World Weather Attributes Group issued in late January found that high temperatures, along with dry and windy conditions conducive to fire spread in Southern California, could be approximately 35% more likely due to human-induced global warming.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Nigeria takes legal action against $81.5 billion cryptocurrency market for economic losses and tax evasion

Nigeria has filed a lawsuit seeking $79.5 billion from the government for economic losses caused by $2 billion in cryptocurrency exchange operations and back taxes, according to court documents filed on Wednesday.

Authorities have criticized Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, blaming it for the devaluation of the Nigerian currency. Two executives of the company were arrested in 2024 after local Naira trading websites emerged as popular platforms. Binance, which is not registered in Nigeria, has not yet commented on the situation.

The Nigerian Federal Internal Revenue Service (FIRS) claims that Binance owes corporate income tax due to its significant economic presence in the country. FIRS is seeking income tax payments for 2022 and 2023, along with a 10% annual penalty on the outstanding amounts. Additionally, FIRS is demanding an unpaid tax rate of 26.75% based on the interest rate of the Nigerian central bank.

Nigeria is already facing four counts of tax evasion related to the cryptocurrency industry, including non-payment of VAT, company income tax, failure to file tax returns, and conspiracy to help customers evade taxes through the platform.

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In response to the allegations, Binance announced in March that it had halted all Naira transactions. The company is also facing separate allegations of institutional money laundering, which it has denied.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Under Roman rule, Britain enjoyed centuries of economic prosperity.

A pile of Roman gold coins discovered beneath the floor of a Roman house in Corbridge, England

World History Archives/Alamy

After the Romans conquered Britain in AD 43, they brought with them technologies and laws that led to centuries of economic growth once thought to be limited to modern industrial societies, according to an analysis of thousands of archaeological finds from the period.

“In about 350 years, about two and a half years [fold] “Improved productivity per person.” Rob Weisman At Cambridge University.

Wiseman says the ancient world long believed that economic growth depended on increases in population and resources — for example, increasing food production required more land and more agricultural workers — a type of growth known as extensive growth.

In contrast, economic growth today is driven primarily by increases in productivity, or intensive growth: for example, mechanization and improved plant and animal breeding enable us to produce more food from the same amount of land with fewer workers.

Several recent studies have challenged the idea that rapid growth only occurred after the Industrial Revolution began, which led Wiseman and his colleagues to look at growth in Roman Britain from 43 to 400 AD.

Wiseman says the team’s research was made possible by British laws that require archaeological investigations when sites are developed. “As a result, tens of thousands of archaeological excavations have been carried out in this country, and the data is available to the public.”

By looking at how the number of buildings changed over time, the researchers were able to get a sense of how the population of Roman Britain grew — and there’s a strong relationship between the number of buildings and population size, Wiseman says.

To get a sense of economic growth, the team looked at three metrics: First, the size of buildings rather than the number of buildings: As people get wealthier, they build bigger homes, Wiseman said.

Another measure is the number of lost coins found at the excavation site: “That fell through the floorboards, that got lost in the bathroom, that sort of thing,” he says.

The idea is that the more coins there are in circulation, the more likely they are to be lost. The team didn’t count hidden hoards of coins because they reflect instability, not growth.

The third criterion is the ratio of cruder pottery, such as cooking and storing pots, to more ornate pottery, such as decorative plates. Economic growth requires people to interact more and socialize more, which means “showing off” when guests are present, Wiseman says.

Based on these indicators, the team found that economic growth exceeded what would be expected from population growth alone. They estimate that per capita growth was about 0.5% between 150 and 250 AD, slowing to about 0.3% between 250 and 400 AD.

“What we’ve been able to show is that there was indeed rapid growth after the Romans arrived,” Wiseman says. The rate of growth, rather than the type of growth, is likely what distinguishes the modern world from the ancient world, he says.

Researchers believe this growth was driven by factors such as roads and ports built by the Romans, laws they introduced that made trade safer, and technology such as more advanced flour mills and animal breeds suited to farming.

The period of rapid growth between AD 150 and 250 could have been the result of Britain catching up with the rest of the Roman world, Wiseman says: “It went from being a small, poorly-connected tribal society to a global economy.”

What’s not clear is whether this economic growth made people happier or healthier. “The fact that productivity rose doesn’t mean that invaded, colonized Britons were better off under the Roman Empire,” Wiseman says. “That’s an open question.”

To investigate this, researchers now plan to examine human remains to determine things like how long people lived.

“I believe they are right, and there was certainly intensive growth in Roman Britain.” Alain Bresson At the University of Chicago, Illinois.

“Many archaeologists have noted the compelling evidence of economic growth in Roman Britain, but this paper adds a welcome formal theoretical dimension to the debate.” Ian Morris At Stanford University, California.

But Morris suspects that the lower average growth rate from A.D. 250 to 400 actually reflected a period of higher growth that declined sharply as the Roman Empire began to collapse. Further research could help find the answer, he says.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Founders’ Guide to Navigating Economic Uncertainty: A Step-by-Step Blueprint

Company formation Achieving superior performance amid economic uncertainty requires more than just hungry founders with good ideas. A strong foundation is needed to withstand the market. Companies founded today need to focus on being profitable while growing, which can be a priority for companies with active VC funding. Profitability may be top of mind during the pre-monetization phase, but maintaining operational efficiency and focus is essential to maximizing monetization potential.

According to Investors, investors are becoming less interested in pitch materials from founders. DocSend data — Investor activity decreased by less than 2% year-on-year (y/y) from 2022 and 4% from 2021. However, investors are still considering pitch materials at a higher level than in 2020, proving that there is a market for early-stage deals.However Funding decreased by 27% Year-on-year comparison for the third quarter.

Every market has opportunities and challenges. Just a few years ago, the founders’ market caused a situation in which “zombie” companies raised funds at unrealistic valuations with the mindset of “growing at all costs,” and the market was extremely founder-friendly. has also proven to have its pitfalls.

Now that investors have returned to par, founders need to prove that their companies are built to survive with long-term profitability and scalability in mind. Historically, this has followed the example of Big Tech companies such as Google, Microsoft, and Adobe, all of which were profitable or close to profitable when they went public.

In 2023, some founders will fail, but others will succeed in leading companies that define a generation.

As the economy and investor market tightens, it becomes even more important to instill solid building blocks in your company’s foundations. Some of the world’s most innovative companies were founded in economically difficult circumstances, and those companies were built to withstand the markets they entered.

The next generation of market-defining companies will operate with the same integrity. A strong foundation will help you raise early-stage funding and, if necessary, help you scale your company and reach further stages of its lifecycle. In the era of growth at all costs, making profits and paying attention to unit economics were often ignored or looked down upon. That has clearly changed now. For founders, perfecting their pitch, developing an efficient sales strategy, and quickly narrowing down their product scope will create a strong foundation for success in attracting investors.

Give investors what they want

Source: techcrunch.com