A recent study suggests that volcanic eruptions from several years prior may have contributed to the devastating impact of the Black Death on medieval Europe’s population.
The researchers discovered that a period of abnormally cold summers in the mid-1340s, potentially linked to one significant volcanic eruption or several smaller ones, led to severe famines throughout the Mediterranean.
They argue that this chain reaction ultimately caused disease-carrying fleas to arrive at European ports, resulting in mortality rates of up to 60 percent.
“This is something I’ve wanted to understand for a long time,” stated Professor Wolf Bungen, a paleoclimatologist from the Department of Geography at the University of Cambridge. “What were the origins and transmission factors of the Black Death, and how extraordinary were they?”
“Why did this event occur in this specific region, at this precise moment in European history? That is a fascinating question, yet one that requires collective insights to answer.”
Professor Ulf Bungen takes ring samples from trees in the Pyrenees – Credit: Ulf Bungen
Bungen noted that BBC Science Focus has provided clues through tree rings and ice cores—ancient ice layers that have preserved chemicals from historic volcanic eruptions—indicating that volcanic activity contributed to the extreme climatic conditions.
“If a particular year experiences unusual cold, heat, dryness, or wetness, we aim to uncover the reasons behind it,” Bungen remarked to BBC Science Focus.
“Volcanoes emit substantial amounts of sulfur into the upper atmosphere, prompting collaborations with ice core experts to gain insights on past eruptions.
“This can lead to subsequent cold summers, a phenomenon known as post-eruption cooling.”
This close-up image of tree rings shows the “blue rings” of 1345 and 1346, during the cold and wet summers – Credit: Ulf Büntgen
It was left to climate historian Dr. Martin Bauch from the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe in Germany to correlate this climate data with historical events.
He found that the harsh cold resulted in significant famine across the Mediterranean, and the responses of the Italian republics of Venice, Genoa, and Pisa eventually facilitated the plague’s arrival in Europe.
“For over a century, these influential Italian city-states established extensive trade networks throughout the Mediterranean and Black Seas, employing an effective system to stave off starvation,” Bauch explained. “However, this ultimately contributed to even greater disasters.”
The fleas carrying the plague bacterium Y. pestis likely reached Mediterranean ports aboard these grain ships, transferring to rats, cats, and humans, and quickly propagating the disease across Europe, decimating its population.
The study concluded that volcanic activity initiated a sequence of events culminating in the plague throughout medieval Europe.
Bungen noted that this narrative continues to resonate in today’s world, over seven centuries later.
“While the coincidental convergence of factors leading to the Black Death may be rare, the probability of zoonotic disease outbreaks and pandemics amidst climate change is likely to escalate in our interconnected world,” he explained.
“This is particularly crucial in light of our recent experiences with COVID-19.”
An underwater volcano, located approximately 300 miles from the Oregon coast, seems to be reawakening.
Researchers monitoring this extensive submarine volcano over the years report that it may erupt due to recent signs of activity, such as nearby earthquake increases and inflation of the volcano’s structure.
Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist and research professor at Oregon State University, forecasts that the volcano, known as Axial Seamount, could erupt at any moment before the year’s end.
3D representation of the Axial Seamount’s marine bottom. Oregon State University
Chadwick and his team at the University of Washington and the University of North Carolina Wilmington leverage networks of underwater sensors to monitor volcanoes.
Recently, these instruments detected signs of unrest within the volcano. For instance, in late March and early April, researchers recorded over 1,000 earthquakes daily. The ongoing swelling of the volcano indicates it is filled with molten rock, according to Chadwick.
“This volcano is akin to Hawaiian volcanoes that erupt highly fluid lava,” he stated. “They tend to expand like balloons during eruptions. At Axial, the seafloor is actually rising, which is a significant indicator.”
However, unlike some Hawaiian volcanoes, there is minimal risk to human life if the Axial Seamount erupts.
Being hundreds of miles offshore and submerged about a mile deep in the ocean ensures that even powerful eruptions go unnoticed on land.
“There’s no explosive activity, so it really won’t impact people,” Chadwick remarked. “If you were on a boat nearby during an eruption, you likely wouldn’t even notice it.”
That said, such an eruption can still be a remarkable event. Researchers noted that the last eruption of Axial Seamount in 2015 released massive amounts of magma.
“For perspective, it’s roughly two-thirds the height of Seattle’s Space Needle,” Chadwick explained. “That’s a substantial amount of lava.”
The Axial Seamount formed over a geophysical hot spot, where a plume of molten rock rises from the Earth’s mantle to the crust. This geological process is common; hotspot volcanoes are found across the seabed, with some forming chains of islands like those in Hawaii and Samoa. What sets Axial Seamount apart is its position along the boundary of the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates. The separation of these plates and the pressure that builds beneath the seafloor consistently drive volcanic activity and create new oceanic crust in the region.
A map displaying the relationship of Axial Seamount to the Cascadia subduction zone and the Mendocino fracture zone. Susan Merule / Oregon State University
Chadwick has observed the activities of Axial Seamount for three decades, with eruptions recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015.
As he and his colleagues anticipate a potential eruption, they are exploring whether patterns of activity at Axial Seamount offer reliable predictions for when an underwater volcano may erupt.
However, accurately predicting eruptions remains a challenging endeavor. Volcanoes can behave unpredictably, and their warning signs can vary significantly.
“They are full of surprises,” commented Scott Nooner, a geophysics professor at the University of North Carolina Wilmington. “It’s uncertain whether magma is still moving beneath the Earth’s surface.”
Scientists have achieved some success with short-term predictions—usually just hours prior to an eruption—to help local authorities decide on evacuations or other necessary precautions. Long-term predictions, however, remain elusive.
This is why, according to Nooner, Axial Seamount serves as an excellent natural laboratory for testing eruption prediction models.
“On land, predicting an eruption weeks or months in advance can lead to substantial financial and emotional costs if incorrect. Luckily, eruptions at Axial Seamount don’t endanger anyone, so it’s safer to test models and refine predictions here without the same consequences as on land,” he concluded.
TCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision this week to resign as leader of the Liberal Party brings the impending general election, which will be held amid political turmoil caused by President Donald Trump's “America” policies. The race for leadership has begun against the backdrop of the Deaf general election. First, there is “economic nationalism.” It also gave Tesla CEO Elon Musk an opportunity to insert himself into yet another country's political turmoil.
Since Prime Minister Trudeau's resignation on Monday, Mr. Musk has repeatedly posted about Canadian politics on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, which he acquired for $44 billion in 2022. He celebrates Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's ouster, interacts with Canada's right-wing influencers, and has praised a video by Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poièvre.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk have promoted the idea of Canada becoming part of the United States, but all major Canadian party leaders, including Mr. Poilievre, reject this idea. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau posted on Tuesday that there is “no snowball effect” for President Trump's proposal to become a reality.
“Miss, you're no longer the Governor of Canada, so it doesn't matter what you say,” Musk tweeted late Tuesday night.
Musk's post symbolizes a widening of his attempts to influence global politics over the past year, during which he has allied himself with a number of right-wing populist leaders and sought to influence far-right influence. It has expanded its power and persistently voiced conservative dissatisfaction. After spending more than $200 million to support President Trump's reelection campaign, he positioned himself as a key figure in determining U.S. policy and forcing foreign leaders to take Trump's provocations seriously. Ta.
Outside the United States, most of Mr. Musk's attention has been focused on the United Kingdom, where he has recently reignited the uproar over a child sex abuse scandal while promoting anti-immigration views, calling Prime Minister Keir Starmer a “rapist.” “I'm doing it,” he accused. British”. Mr. Musk is also exerting influence on Germany's upcoming elections. Supports far-right, anti-immigration AfD party In an editorial, he hosted leader Alice Weidel for a livestream interview on his platform.
Musk's meddling in European politics has prompted leaders in Britain, France and Germany to speak out against his election interference and misinformation. Now it looks like it's Canada's turn to deal with the world's richest man.
While Musk remains in the background, Prime Minister Trudeau's Liberal Party is likely to hold a leadership election to replace Musk as prime minister, followed by a general election soon after.
Enliven Poièvre
In a series of posts after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned, Musk expressed support for Poièvre, whose Conservative Party is widely expected to dominate Canada's general election after three years in Liberal government. There is. Musk's posts to his more than 200 million followers have already drawn comments from major political party leaders, highlighting how important he is as the country faces this year's political turmoil. Indicates whether it has the potential to become an element.
Canada's left-wing NDP leader Jagmeet Singh responded to Musk's tweet, saying, “Elon Musk and other billionaires support Pierre Poièvre because if he wins, they will… Because it will make you richer,” he posted.
In the days of Poilievre Asked about support for Mr. Musk “It would be great if we could convince Mr. Musk to open some factories here in Canada,” he said at a press conference Thursday. He also mentioned Musk's ambitions for space travel.
“My 3-year-old son wants to go to Mars, so I think Mr. Musk is the right person to reach out to him,” Poièvre said. “If I had a chance to meet with Mr. Musk, I would say, 'How can we create an economy that brings hundreds of billions of dollars of investment back to Canada?'”
Mr. Poièvre fits the mold of other conservative politicians who have appealed to Mr. Musk. He was once known as a combative, baby-faced lawmaker nicknamed “Skippy” by other members of Congress, but in recent years he has ditched his glasses and tie and taken on a more populist personality. Poilievre, an Alberta native, has positioned himself as an opponent of “Prime Minister Trudeau's woke authoritarian policies.” used for conspiratorial rhetoric About “Globalist Elite” and Promises to reduce immigration While blaming the Liberal Party for economic inflation.
Many of Poièvre's points revolve around the adoption of virtual currencies, cuts to government funding, and a new punitive government position with the power to withhold government subsidies to universities that don't protect free speech. It's reminiscent of ideas that Musk himself might promote, such as creating a “guardian of the world.” We are committed to protecting freedom of speech on campus. Poilievre also Support ban on trans women It promised to cut funding from women's bathrooms, locker rooms and sports, and cut funding to Canada's national public broadcaster and news organizations.
Musk posted a 2023 clip of Poièvre eating an apple while disdainfully answering questions from a local news editor, calling it a “masterpiece.” The billionaire also praised Poièvre's video talking about spending cuts and inflation. In a third post, Musk tweeted, “Great interview,” sharing Poilievre's remarks. Talking with right-wing commentator Jordan PetersonIn it, the Conservative leader promised “the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history.” Mr Poièvre's interview with Mr Peterson drew condemnation from both the Liberal Party and the NDP over the fact that it was sponsored by a US-based Christian anti-abortion group.
According to opinion polls taken before Prime Minister Trudeau resigned, the Conservative Party has great advantages And Canada this year, even if Last month's survey It has been shown that only 37% of Canadians view Poièvre himself favorably.
Despite Musk's support, Poièvre may also face a balancing act over how closely to work with Trump, who remains an unpopular figure in Canada. According to a public opinion poll during the US presidential election, Only 21% of Canadians support it While Trump was re-elected, another poll in November showed that About 19% of Canadians trust Musk's opinion. about their country's politics.
As in the U.S., many of the Canadian political accounts Musk is associated with tend to be respected conservative media influencers, which Musk spreads to his millions of followers. are.
In one post this week, Musk shared misleading claims about Trudeau from far-right media entrepreneur Ezra Levant, which were later corrected by a community note. Levant publishes the website Rebel News, whose contributors include British anti-Muslim extremist Tommy Robinson, Proud Boys founder Gavin McInnes and former top commentators. face goldiewas fired after appearing on a neo-Nazi podcast. Musk also exchanged tweets with Lauren Southern, an early “alt-right” Canadian influencer and former Rebel Media host who gained notoriety by creating anti-immigrant YouTube videos. promote of white supremacist “The Great Successor” conspiracy theory.
Jordan Peterson is another Canadian touchstone for Musk. In addition to sharing Peterson interviews with Poièvre and exchanging the occasional tweet, Musk appeared on Peterson's show last year. In it, the tech mogul claimed that his transgender child “died” after receiving gender-affirming care and was “killed by a wake-up mind virus.” . Vivian Wilson, Musk's transgender daughter, responded that Musk's characterization was wrong and that her father was absent.
Musk also frequently interacts with Canadian marketing professor Gad Saad at X. Gad Saad has developed an online following through his books and podcast appearances attacking what he calls “the parasitic ideas that are destroying the Western world.”
“I read your insightful book on the parasitic wake-mind virus,” Musk tweeted on Third last year. “It gave me nightmares.”
Musk celebrates Prime Minister Trudeau's resignation
While Mr. Musk has expressed support for Mr. Poièvre, he is relishing Mr. Trudeau's fall from grace. On Wednesday, he shared an AI-generated meme of Donald Trump playing a sad violin in the background of Trudeau's resignation speech, and also responded to an old tweet of his own in which he predicted Trudeau would lose power. did.
Musk has expressed opposition to Trudeau multiple times in recent years over issues such as COVID-19 safety restrictions, most notably in 2022 when he shared a meme comparing Trudeau to Hitler. It was. Musk deleted the tweet after being criticized by the Auschwitz-Birkenau Holocaust Museum, but as recently as December he again called for Trudeau's political ouster.
Prime Minister Trudeau had been a target of right-wing media long before the Musk attack, with far-right commentators such as former Fox News host Tucker Carlson portraying him as some kind of socialist dictator and of Canada as a dystopian hellscape. He dedicated a corner to drawing like this.
Within Canada, the reasons for Trudeau's resignation are more complex. Although he maintained a progressive glow internationally, many Canadians across the political spectrum came to find Mr. Trudeau's personality sinister and hypocritical. domestic scandal. Rising cost of living, inflation and fatigue with the minority Liberal government lost significant support from his party. The recent collapse of the cabinet, the failure of last year's by-elections and the threat of a no-confidence vote ended up being a death sentence for his leadership.
Today, the moon is a cold, dead world, but it hasn’t always been that way. Early in its history, the Moon was host to volcanic activity.
Now, the latest results from the first-ever samples returned from the far side of the moon by China’s Chang’e 6 spacecraft reveal this volcanic activity. It may have happened more recently More than previously suspected. But what remains unclear is how these eruptions were able to continue for so long.
The moon is tidally locked to the Earth, meaning the same side is always facing us. Throughout human history, the dark ocean on the moon’s near side (known as Mare) has been clearly visible.
However, the far side of the Moon was hidden from our view and remained a mystery until the advent of the Space Age. In 1959, the Soviet Union’s Luna 3 satellite returned the first-ever images of the far side of the Moon, revealing a completely different surface than the familiar near side. There are only a handful of small oceans on the moon. Instead, much of the opposite side is pocked with impact craters.
Why do we know so little about the far side of the moon?
The Moon is dual-faced, and each side has a markedly different appearance. In recent years, experiments such as NASA’s GRAIL satellite have revealed that this dual personality extends underground as well.
“There is a dichotomy of the crust between the near and far sides, and the crust on the far side is much thicker,” he says. Professor Clive Neal a planetary geologist at the University of Notre Dame in the United States.
The cause of this split is one of the biggest unanswered questions about the moon. To get to the bottom of it, researchers first need to investigate what causes the two different appearances in the first place.
In the ’60s and ’70s, the Luna and Apollo missions returned vast amounts of lunar rock, confirming what geologists had long suspected: that the lunar maria was formed primarily from basalt (cooled lava). We were able to confirm that it is made of minerals.
The moon’s oceans were actually ancient volcanic floodplains that formed between 4.3 billion and 3.1 billion years ago. This conclusively proved that there was volcanic activity on the surface.
A photo of the far side of the Moon taken and transmitted to Earth by the Soviet lunar probe Luna 3 in 1959. – Photo credit: Getty
The absence of maria on the moon may suggest that there are no signs of volcanic activity on the far side, but a closer look at the craters on the far side shows that this may not be the case. Over time, the rocky world develops the patina of impact craters from meteorite impacts.
If the planet is volcanically active, lava flooding the surface will fill these craters and erase them from the surface. This means that the more craters there are on a planet’s surface, the longer it has been volcanic.
Using orbital images of the moon’s surface, scientists have been able to count craters on the moon, and it appears that the far side of the moon has actually been carved clean by volcanic activity on roughly the same time scale as seen on the near side. I discovered that it looks like.
So what did the new mission find?
The only way to confirm this theory was to test for volcanic minerals on samples from the backside. Unfortunately, all early lunar exploration aimed at the easiest place to land: the brightly lit equator in front of the moon.
Things changed on June 1, 2024, when China’s Chang’e 6 lander touched down on the far side of an area known as the Antarctic Aitken Impact Basin. This was China’s second venture into the far side, after landing a spacecraft in 2019. Chang’e 6’s main purpose was to bring samples of the far side back to Earth, ultimately revealing how geologically different this region is from the far side. .
Immediately after landing, Chang’e 6 scooped up some of the moon’s soil, known as regolith. They also used a 2-meter (6.5-foot) long drill to collect samples from underground, where moon rocks are somewhat protected from the sun’s radiation.
In all, the mission collected 1,935 g (4.2 pounds) of lunar material, which was packaged into an ascent vehicle and returned to Earth on June 6.
The return capsule of the Chang’e 6 probe will land in Xiziwangban, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, on June 25, 2024. – Photo credit: Getty
The return capsule was immediately taken to a special facility, where it was opened and subjected to preliminary tests, which revealed that the sample contained grains of basalt, proving that there was indeed a volcanic past behind it. It was done.
To learn more about what this past was like, more than 100 basalt fragments were extracted and sent to two independent teams of researchers who published their findings. science and nature November of this year.
They found that the basalt is about 2.8 billion years old, younger than the samples collected by Luna and Apollo.
How volcanic activity became possible is a “mystery”
The new sample matched a similarly young sample taken by China’s previous sample return mission, Chang’e 5.
Neither sample contained a group of metals called KREEP (potassium, rare earth metals, and phosphorus with the element symbol K) that were abundant in the previous samples. There was also a clear shortage of radioactive metals. Also a sample of Chang’e.
“The mystery is that young basalts, less than 3 billion years old, do not contain large amounts of KREEP radioactive elements either in the foreground or in the background,” said one of the few Western scientists allowed to cooperate in this research. Mr. Neil, one of the Analysis at this time.
“This is a mystery, but it matches the young basalt of Chang’e 5, which is 2 billion years old.”
Heat from the decay of radioactive metals is one of the main mechanisms that sustains volcanic activity on our planet, but their apparent disappearance does not seem to have immediately stopped volcanic activity on the Moon. As it turns out, the samples are very similar in many other ways.
“They are similar in bulk composition to previous samples, which adds to the mystery: What was the heat source that produced such magmas?” says Neal.
Getting to the bottom of the mystery will almost certainly require more samples taken from different parts of the moon, as well as a closer look at what’s happening beneath the surface.
“The absence of creep elements in the basalts on the far side suggests that the Moon’s mantle is also bipartite. To understand the nature of the Moon’s interior, we need to use global geophysical networks to You need to explore what’s inside.”
It appears the other side still wants to keep some of its secrets hidden, at least for now.
About our experts
Professor Clive Neil is an expert in civil and environmental engineering and geosciences at the University of Notre Dame in the United States. His research is natural earth science, science and advances in space research.
Indonesian authorities issued a tsunami warning Wednesday after the eruption of Mount Luang sent volcanic ash thousands of feet into the air. Authorities ordered more than 11,000 people to leave the area.
Indonesia’s Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation Center said there were at least five major eruptions in the past 24 hours at a volcano on the northern side of Sulawesi island. Authorities raised the eruption alert to the highest level.
Mount Luang spews hot lava and smoke on the north side of Indonesia’s Sulawesi island on Wednesday. Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation/via AFP – Getty Images
At least 800 residents left the area early Wednesday.
Indonesia, an archipelago of 270 million people, has 120 active volcanoes. It is prone to volcanic activity because it is located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, a series of horseshoe-shaped seismic faults around the Pacific Ocean.
Officials urged tourists and others to stay at least 6.0 miles from the 778-meter-high Luang Volcano.
Officials fear that parts of the volcano could collapse into the ocean, causing a tsunami, like the 1871 eruption.
Taglandan Island, to the northeast of the volcano, is once again in danger, and residents have been advised to evacuate.
Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency announced that residents would be relocated to Manado, the nearest city on Sulawesi island, a six-hour boat ride away.
In 2018, the eruption of Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau volcano caused parts of the mountain to fall into the sea, triggering a tsunami along the coasts of Sumatra and Java, killing 430 people.
Lava erupts from a fissure near Grindavik, Iceland, on March 20th.
Associated Press/Alamy Stock Photo
A recent eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland released a huge plume of sulfur dioxide (SO2) currently floating around Europe. Fortunately, no significant weather or health impacts are expected.
yes2 On March 20 in the EU, the plume moved across Ireland and the United Kingdom towards Scandinavia. Copernicus atmospheric monitoring service I said it today. It is scheduled to arrive in the Baltic states, Poland and Russia on Friday.
A person working at the Blue Lagoon Resort on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland was hospitalized March 20, after being exposed to high levels of SO.2 gas. However, the plumes moving over Europe are far above the ground and do not affect the air quality below.
Say, “The plume is at a higher altitude.” Mark Purrington At Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service.
Last November, a gigantic fissure, 15 kilometers long and several kilometers deep, formed under part of the Reykjanes Peninsula. Magma that had been accumulating deeper was poured into it at the fastest rate ever recorded.
On December 18, lava began erupting along part of the fissure. So far it has erupted four times, and the most recent and largest eruption began on March 17th.
“SO plume”2 All of Europe was created at an early stage [of the latest eruption]” Freistein Sigmundson At the University of Iceland in Reykjavik.
Freistein said the eruption continued as of the afternoon of March 21, although the flow slowed from its initial stages. “This eruption is different from previous ones,” he says. “It's longer than last time.”
Some volcanic eruptions release enough SO2 Although it has the potential to affect the global climate, the Icelandic eruption is not on this scale. Parrington said the plume's duration is too short to affect the weather.
Unlike the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, which disrupted air traffic over Europe for about a week, the Reykjanes eruption is of a different type and is not expected to produce large amounts of volcanic ash.
Iojima is itself a volcano, located on the edge of the massive underwater Akahoya volcanic caldera.
Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images
The largest volcanic eruption in current geological time occurred underwater off the southern coast of Japan about 7,300 years ago. This explosion produced more than three times as much material as the eruption of Mount Tambora, the largest known modern eruption. Mount Tambora exploded in Indonesia in 1815, causing dramatic climate changes that led to the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816.
The new record holder, the Kikai Akahoya eruption, originated from a submerged caldera in an area off Japan's Kyushu island.
The devastating impact this eruption had on humans living on nearby islands has been recorded by geologists and archaeologists, and analysis of volcanic ash deposits has shown that this eruption was the most recent geological event that began 11,700 years ago. It was shown to be one of the largest eruptions of the Holocene era. .
However, the origin and scale of the explosion were unclear because of the difficulty in accessing the submarine caldera, the crater formed after the volcanic eruption, and the volcanic deposits on the ocean floor.
now, Nobukazu Sema Professors at Japan's Kobe University calculated that the Kikai-Akahoya eruption produced far more rock and ash underwater than previously thought, about 70 cubic kilometers. Combining this with previous estimates from volcanic rocks deposited over Japan, the total amount of material pumped out of the volcano equates to more than 300 cubic kilometers of material. This is twice the amount of water in Lake Tahoe in the western United States. “It was huge, more than we expected,” Seema says.
However, it is still far behind the huge eruption of Indonesia's Toba supervolcano, which released more than 2,500 cubic kilometers of magma about 74,000 years ago.
To assess Kikai Akahoya, Seema and his colleagues conducted seismic surveys and mapped the underwater area around the caldera, about 200 meters below the surface. This allowed them to see layers of material around the volcano, but they could not tell which ones were due to the eruption itself.
The researchers used remote-controlled drilling robots to collect sediment from the ocean floor, take core samples from the underlying rock, and identify layers containing characteristic volcanic glass. This data allowed us to isolate the volcanic layers from seismic surveys and calculate the total amount of material produced by the volcano.
“We know that very large, caldera-forming eruptions like this are rare, but we also know that there have been many more of these events in the geological past, and we have found evidence for them. ” he says. David Pyle at Oxford University.
The main reason it took so long for the scale of the eruption to be determined is because calderas deep under the sea are difficult to locate and measure, he said.
It still remains in the Kikai Akahoya caldera. big magma chamber It's below. If this explodes, there could be another eruption, but it's unclear how big it will be because it depends on the size of the magma chamber, Seema said. He says the chance of an eruption is small, but his team is working on measuring the dome more precisely to better understand the risks.
Creating better models to predict future eruptions by combining historical information from past eruptions, such as the Kikai-Akahoya eruption, with research from recent underwater eruptions, such as the 2022 Hunga-Tonga eruption. Pyle says it could help.
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