Achieving the 1.5°C Climate Goal: The Century’s Best Vision for a Sustainable Future

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During the first decade of the 21st century, scientists and policymakers emphasized a 2°C cap as the highest “safe” limit for global warming above pre-industrial levels. Recent research suggests that this threshold might still be too high. Rising sea levels pose a significant risk to low-lying islands, prompting scientists to explore the advantages of capping temperature rise at approximately 1.5°C for safeguarding vulnerable regions.

In light of this evidence, the United Nations negotiating bloc, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), advocated for a global commitment to restrict warming to 1.5°C, emphasizing that allowing a 2°C increase would have devastating effects on many small island developing nations.

James Fletcher, the former UN negotiator for the AOSIS bloc at the 2015 UN COP climate change summit in Paris, remarked on the challenges faced in convincing other nations to adopt this stricter global objective. At one summit, he recounted a low-income country’s representative confronting him, expressing their vehement opposition to the idea of even a 1.5°C increase.

After intense discussions, bolstered by support from the European Union and the tacit backing of the United States, as well as intervention from Pope Francis, the 1.5°C target was included in the impactful 2015 Paris Agreement. However, climate scientists commenced their work without a formal evaluation of the implications of this warming level.

In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report confirmed that limiting warming to 1.5°C would provide substantial benefits. The report also advocated for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 along a 1.5°C pathway.

These dual objectives quickly became rallying points for nations and businesses worldwide, persuading countries like the UK to enhance their national climate commitments to meet these stringently set goals.

Researchers at the University of Leeds, including Piers Foster, attribute the influence of the 1.5°C target as a catalyst driving nations to adhere to significantly tougher climate goals than previously envisioned. “It fostered a sense of urgency,” he remarks.

Despite this momentum, global temperatures continue to rise, and current efforts to curb emissions are insufficient to fulfill the 1.5°C commitment. Scientific assessments predict the world may exceed this warming threshold within a mere few years.

Nevertheless, 1.5°C remains a crucial benchmark for tracking progress in global emissions reductions. Public and policymakers are more alert than ever to the implications of rising temperatures. An overshoot beyond 1.5°C is widely regarded as a perilous scenario, rendering the prior notion of 2°C as a “safe” threshold increasingly outdated.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Earth Approaches a Second Year Exceeding the 1.5°C Climate Goal

A Sunset Over London in May 2025

Guy Corbishley/Alamy

The aim of restricting global warming to below 1.5°C faces challenges as recent climate data suggests global temperatures remain alarmingly high, with 2025 tracking closely to 2024’s record heat.

April 2025 marked the second hottest April on record, losing out only to April 2024, as per reports from the European Union’s Copernicus climate service and the nonprofit Berkeley Earth. That month, global temperatures consistently exceeded 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels, marking 22 consecutive months over this critical threshold. Copernicus reports. The average temperature for April 2025 remained cooler than April 2024, still surpassing pre-industrial levels by 1.49°C.

This unrelenting warmth has astounded scientists. The year 2024 was deemed the hottest on record, with an average global temperature exceeding 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. It marked a significant event as it was the first calendar year to surpass the 1.5°C threshold. Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, nations pledged to limit global temperature increases to well below 2°C, ideally to 1.5°C.

Scientists had anticipated that the cooling effects of the La Niña weather pattern would emerge in January, offering some relief. However, global temperatures have remained persistently elevated, raising concerns about 2025 possibly following 2024 in exceeding the critical 1.5°C marker. “The recent La Niña event hasn’t provided the expected cooling relief,” stated Robert Rohde from Berkeley Earth during a briefing on May 13.

Data from Berkeley Earth suggests an 18% likelihood that 2025 will be the hottest year recorded, and a 53% chance of it being the second hottest. Rohde estimates a 52% probability of having an average temperature exceeding 1.5°C this year.

The trajectory of global temperatures for the remainder of the year relies heavily on whether new El Niño or La Niña patterns emerge in the Pacific, according to Rohde.

The ongoing hot streak has dashed hopes of capping global temperatures at the 1.5°C Paris target. Although targets are assessed over a 20-year average, researchers are increasingly worried that recent high-temperature streaks have led to a breach of this threshold. “It’s becoming inevitable that we’ll see a long-term average above 1.5°C in the next decade,” Rohde cautioned.

Last year, scientists warned that exceeding 1.5°C would result in a three-year period of significant temperature rise, effectively compromising the goals of the Paris Agreement. Similarly, a paper released earlier this year indicated that 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C have already signaled a long-term warming trend at that level.

Richard Allan from the University of Reading expressed surprise at the durability of the warmth. Findings from the past two years and new record temperatures have fundamentally altered the scientific perspective on the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5°C. “Without substantial mitigation efforts or extraordinary volcanic events in the next 20 years, we expect we will be above the 1.5°C threshold,” he remarked.

Nevertheless, he maintains that the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to below 2°C remains attainable. “It is crucial to strive for temperatures beneath that threshold,” he emphasized.

Topics:

  • Temperature/
  • Paris Climate Summit

Source: www.newscientist.com

Apple’s goal: Sourcing all US iPhones from India and decreasing reliance on China

It has been reported that Apple is planning to shift its iPhone assembly operations to India for the US market in order to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing bases amidst the trade war initiated by Donald Trump. The tech giant, with a value of $3 trillion (£2.3 trillion), aims to make this transition soon, as mentioned in the Financial Times article next year.

Apple has been affected by Trump’s tariff policies, resulting in iPhones being subjected to heavy import taxes when entering the US. Despite this, the White House decided to exclude smartphones from the highest tariffs imposed on Chinese products, providing some relief to Apple.

The intricate manufacturing process of iPhones involves sourcing over 1,000 components from various parts of the world, with an estimated 90% of iPhones currently being assembled domestically. By the end of 2026, Apple plans to have over 60 million iPhones sold in the US assembled in India.

In an effort to offset the impact of tariffs, Apple’s leading Indian suppliers have increased production in India and have shipped a significant number of phones to the US. Apple has also chartered freight flights to ensure an adequate stock in key markets.

Despite discussions about moving iPhone production to the US, analysts do not foresee this happening in the near future. The costs associated with manufacturing iPhones in the US are expected to be high, making it financially challenging for Apple to shift production entirely.

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Source: www.theguardian.com