In 2005, physicists David Frame and Miles Allen were headed to a scientific conference in Exeter, England. According to Frame, they were “playing around” with climate models in preparation for their presentation.
At that time, most research centered on stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to avert severe climate change. However, scientists faced challenges in predicting how much the planet would warm if these concentrations reached specific levels.
Frame and Allen approached the issue from a different angle. Instead of focusing on atmospheric concentrations, they examined emissions. They wondered what would happen if humanity ceased emitting anthropogenic carbon dioxide. Using a climate model on a train, they found that global temperatures reached a new stable level. In other words, global warming would halt if humanity achieved “net-zero” carbon dioxide emissions. Frame recalled, “It was pretty cool to sit on the train and see these numbers for the first time and think, ‘Wow, this is a big deal.’
This groundbreaking presentation and the subsequent Nature paper published in 2009 reshaped the thinking within the climate science community. Prior to the net-zero concept, it was generally accepted that humans could emit around 2.5 gigatons annually (approximately 6% of current global emissions) while still stabilizing global temperatures. However, it became clear that to stabilize the climate, emissions must reach net zero, balanced by equivalent removals from the atmosphere.
The global consensus surrounding the need to achieve net zero CO2 emissions rapidly gained traction, culminating in a landmark conclusion in the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The subsequent question was about timing: when must we reach net zero? At the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting temperature increases as close to 1.5°C as feasible, aiming for net-zero emissions by around mid-century.
Almost immediately, governments worldwide faced immense pressure to establish net-zero targets. Hundreds of companies joined the movement, recognizing the economic opportunities presented by the transition to clean energy. This “net-zero fever” has led to some dubious commitments that excessively rely on using global forests and wetlands to absorb human pollution. Nevertheless, this shift has altered the course of this century: approximately 75% of global emissions are now encompassed by net-zero pledges, and projections for global warming throughout this century have decreased from around 3.7–4.8°C to 2.4–2.6°C under existing climate commitments.Read more here.
Subsidies Promote Adoption of Low-Emission Technologies like Electric Vehicles
Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
To achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by 2050, implementing green subsidies is essential, complemented by a potential carbon tax, both of which may face opposition under President Donald Trump.
Introducing a price or tax on carbon emissions stands out as the most effective strategy to curb carbon output. However, the U.S. government has continually struggled to enact cap-and-trade laws that would limit emissions and require companies surpassing these limits to buy allowances.
Subsidies are straightforward to deploy and could lower the cost of adopting low-emission technologies, including electric vehicles, thus alleviating the financial impact of carbon pricing.
Wei Peng at Princeton University analyzed the implications of subsidies and carbon taxes to find the most effective policy sequence for emissions reduction in the U.S.
The results indicate that subsidies could lead to a 32% reduction in energy system emissions by 2030; however, this impact may decrease over time as fossil fuels like natural gas remain economically viable.
Conversely, implementing a carbon tax in 2035 could result in the phase-out of most fossil fuels, reducing overall emissions by more than 80% by 2050.
“Subsidies will help cultivate green industries, but we will still require regulatory enforcement to meet decarbonization objectives,” states Penn. “The key question is how to navigate that transition.”
Following President Joe Biden’s 2050 net-zero aim, recent legislation has introduced tax incentives for investments in green infrastructure, ranging from electric vehicle charging stations to carbon sequestration technologies. In contrast, President Trump dismissed these subsidies as “the new green scam” and rescinded many of them.
This unpredictable policy landscape is “the worst-case scenario,” according to Peng. “This inconsistency will either slow down decarbonization or inflate costs.”
If subsidies are reinstated post-Trump’s presidency in 2029, along with introducing a carbon tax by 2045, researchers conclude that the carbon tax would need to be 67% higher than current rates to achieve net-zero emissions. This is primarily due to the necessity of employing costly technology to extract vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Yet, researchers suggest that “accelerated innovation” through unforeseen technological breakthroughs could lessen the need for stringent regulations.
The findings advocate strongly for a carbon pricing model, yet extending this analysis globally would yield richer insights into effective carrot-and-stick combinations, notes Gregory Nemet at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Countries like China and those in the European Union have adopted extensive subsidies and carbon pricing initiatives, leading to advancements such as affordable solar panels, which empower other nations to cut emissions.
“Progress is ongoing in these regions, along with robust policy frameworks,” remarks Nemet. “This fosters accelerated innovation, and the U.S. stands to benefit significantly from this evolution.”
The demand for electricity by data centers in Australia could triple over the next five years, with projections indicating it may surpass the energy consumed by electric vehicles by 2030.
Currently, data centers obtain approximately 2% of their electricity from the National Grid, equating to around 4 terawatt-hours (TWh). The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) is optimistic about this share significantly increasing, projecting a growth of 25% annually to reach 12TWh, or 6% of grid demand by 2030, and 12% by 2050.
Aemo anticipates that the rapid expansion of this industry will drive “substantial increases in electricity usage, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.”
In New South Wales and Victoria, where the majority of data centers are situated, they contribute to 11% and 8% of electricity demand, respectively, by 2030. Electricity demand in each state is projected to grow accordingly.
Tech companies like OpenAI and SunCable are pushing Australia towards becoming a central hub for data processing and storage. Recently, the Victorian Government announced a $5.5 million investment aimed at establishing the region as Australia’s data center capital.
However, with 260 data centers currently operating across the nation and numerous others in the pipeline, experts express concerns about the implications of unchecked industry growth on energy transition and climate objectives.
Energy Usage Equivalent to 100,000 Households
The continual operation of numerous servers generates substantial heat and requires extensive electricity for both operation and cooling.
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Globally, the demand for data centers is growing at a rate four times faster than other sectors, according to the International Energy Agency. The number and size of centers are escalating, with large facilities becoming increasingly common.
As highlighted by the IEA, “AI-centric hyperscale data centers possess a capacity exceeding 100MW and consume energy equivalent to what 100,000 homes use annually.”
Professor Michael Blair, a mechanical engineering professor at the University of Melbourne and director of the Net Zero Australia project, stated that there is a significant connection between electricity and water usage due to cooling requirements, as servers convert electrical energy into heat.
“In confined spaces with many computers, air conditioning is required to maintain an optimal operating temperature,” he explains.
Typically, digital infrastructure is cooled through air conditioning or water systems.
Ketan Joshi, a climate analyst at the Oslo-based Australia Institute, shares that many tech companies are reporting a surge in electricity consumption compared to last year. The intensity of energy usage has also been increasing across several metrics: energy per active user and energy per unit of revenue, when compared to five years ago.
“They aren’t consuming more energy to serve additional users or increase revenue,” he asserts. “The pertinent question is: why is our energy consumption escalating?”
In the absence of concrete data, Joshi suggests that the undeniable growth in demand is likely attributed to the rise of energy-intensive generative AI systems.
“Running Harder to Stay in the Same Place”
Joshi is monitoring this issue, as data centers globally are evidenced to place substantial and inflexible demands on power grids, resulting in two significant repercussions: increased dependence on coal and gas generation, and diverting resources away from the energy transition.
While data center companies often assert they operate using clean energy through investments in solar and wind, Joshi remarks that there can often be a mismatch between their companies’ persistent reliance on the grid and their renewable energy production profiles.
“What’s the ultimate impact on the power grid?” he questions. “Sometimes, we have surplus energy, and other times, there isn’t enough.”
“So, even if everything appears favorable on paper, your data center might be inadvertently supporting fossil fuel transportation.”
Moreover, instead of renewable energy sources displacing coal and gas, these sources are accommodating the growing demands of data centers, Joshi notes. “It’s like sprinting on a treadmill—no matter how hard you run, it feels like the speed is continually increasing.”
The demand for electricity has surged to the extent that some companies have resorted to restarting their operations. Nuclear power plants in the U.S. that were once mothballed are being revived as demand for gas turbines increases. Some Australian developers are even proposing the installation of new gas generators to fulfill their energy needs.
Aemo predicts that by 2035, data centers could consume 21.4TWh, nearing the country’s annual energy consumption, comparable to that of four aluminum smelters.
Blair pointed out that AI adoption is in its infancy, and the outlook remains uncertain, as Aemo’s 2035 energy consumption scenarios range between 12TWh and 24TWh, indicating that the future might not be as expansive as anticipated.
In the National AI Plan released Tuesday, the federal government recognized the necessity for advancements in new energy and cooling technologies for AI systems. Industry Minister Tim Ayers stated that principles for data center investments will be established in early 2026, emphasizing requirements for supplementary investments in renewable energy generation and water sustainability.
“Undeniable Impact” on Electricity Prices
Dr. Dylan McConnell, an energy systems researcher at the University of New South Wales, noted that while renewable energy is on the rise in Australia, it is not yet progressing rapidly enough to meet required renewable energy and emissions targets. The expansion of data centers will complicate these challenges.
“If demand escalates beyond projections and renewables can’t keep pace, we’ll end up meeting that new demand instead of displacing coal,” he explains.
Unlike electric vehicles, which enhance demand on the grid while lowering gasoline and diesel usage, data centers do not reduce fossil fuel consumption elsewhere in the economy, according to McConnell.
“If this demand materializes, it will severely hamper our emissions targets and complicate our ability to phase out coal in alignment with those targets,” he advises.
In its climate targets recommendations, the Climate Change Agency stated: “Data centers will continue to scale up, exerting deeper pressure on local power sources and further hampering renewable energy expansions.”
McConnell asserted there will be a significant effect on overall energy costs, influencing electricity prices.
“To support this load, we will need a larger system that utilizes more costly resources.”
Geothermal power could become a crucial aspect of the UK’s future energy mix
Jim West/Alamy
purify the air Hannah Ritchie, Chatto & Windus (UK); MIT Press (USA, published March 3, 2026)
A few weeks prior, while dining with friends, the conversation turned to renewable energy—quite fitting as we had a climate journalist, an activist, and two civil servants at the table.
As expected, my dinner companions were well-versed in the perils of climate change and the pressing necessity to transition to cleaner energy sources. However, a question lingered: Does the UK still require gas as a backup fuel for the electricity grid? Can we rely solely on wind, solar, and batteries during those dreary winter months?
In such discussions, it’s timely that data scientist Hannah Ritchie’s new book has been released. Clearing the Air: A hopeful guide to solving climate change with 50 questions and answers serves as an excellent resource. Thanks to my well-thumbed copy, I was able to guide a friend through various storage solutions that maintain grid power when wind and sunlight are scarce, highlighting the roles of pumped storage, geothermal energy, and hydrogen.
In her previous work, it’s not the end of the world, Ritchie provided a swift education on addressing the planet’s environmental challenges. purify the air, though it maintains the same optimistic outlook, functions more as a practical guide with data-driven answers regarding the journey to achieve net-zero emissions.
Topics are categorized, covering fossil fuels and renewable energy to electric vehicles and domestic heating. Reading through, it’s evident that Ritchie aims to counter the deluge of misinformation and misleading media narratives surrounding the net-zero transition. Her work dispels myths, such as the idea that electric cars will frequently run out of power on highways, heat pumps are ineffective in colder climates, and that there isn’t enough land available for solar energy installations.
purify the air wields the power of scientific research and solid data to combat this misinformation. For instance, one of her addressed questions is whether wind farms pose a threat to birds—a commonly cited criticism from figures like US President Donald Trump. The response is yes; while wind turbines do unfortunately kill some birds, the figure is minimal compared to annual deaths caused by cats, buildings, vehicles, and pesticides.
Nevertheless, wind turbines do threaten certain species, including bats, migratory birds, and birds of prey. Ritchie emphasizes that measures can be taken to mitigate these risks, such as repositioning wind farms, utilizing black paint on turbines, and deactivating blades during low wind conditions. Such nuances are often lost in headlines or political jests, yet they are key to comprehending the advantages and drawbacks of transitioning to clean energy.
The Q&A format of the book makes it approachable, although repetition may set in if read in one sitting. purify the air proves to be a handy reference when dealing with climate-change skeptics during family gatherings.
Throughout, Ritchie’s characteristic optimism shines prominently. She clarifies that viable decarbonization options are available in nearly every facet of the net-zero transition, all without shying away from real challenges or indulging in wishful thinking. The impact is profound; readers will depart informed, hopeful, and reassured that humanity can prevail in the face of the climate crisis. In a landscape rife with fake news and political deception, this book truly brings a breath of fresh air.
Elon Musk was the first individual to achieve a net worth of $500 billion, placing Tesla’s CEO halfway in the wealth rankings.
Musk’s fortune dipped to $49.9 billion after briefly exceeding the $50 trillion mark on Wednesday. Forbes Billionaire List.
Owning 12% of Tesla, which is valued at over $1.5 trillion, Musk’s wealth has been positively impacted this year by a significant increase in the electric vehicle maker’s stock price.
Besides Tesla, the 54-year-old is also involved with SpaceX, the rocket company, where he holds a 42% ownership according to Pitchbook data.
Earlier this year, Tesla’s stock experienced a decline, affected by concerns regarding Musk’s focus amidst rising competition from Chinese manufacturers, falling sales, distractions from his other ventures, and a tumultuous relationship with Donald Trump. Analysts noted that Musk’s vocal support for Trump on X (the social media platform he owns) resonated with right-wing political sentiments.
However, Tesla’s stock has surged by 70% over the past six months as investor confidence improved and Musk redirected his attention back to the company. Since its inception in 2025, it has soared by 13%.
Last month, Tesla’s board president, Robin Denholm, remarked that Musk had returned to a “front and center” role in the company after months of distractions.
Shortly thereafter, Musk revealed he had acquired approximately $1 billion in shares, showcasing a strong belief in Tesla’s future as it transitions from a traditional automaker to a leader in AI and robotics.
The Tesla Board also proposed a $10 billion compensation plan for Musk last month, addressing his request for a larger stake while setting high financial and operational goals for the CEO.
Despite this, Musk’s standing in the wealth rankings has been fluctuating. In September, Larry Ellison, co-founder of Oracle, briefly surpassed Musk as the world’s richest person, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index.
Currently, Bloomberg lists Musk ahead of Ellison but estimates Musk’s wealth at $470 billion compared to Ellison’s $349 billion.
tIt may conjure images of battery production lines and the extensive “gigafactory” projects of Elon Musk and Tesla across the globe, or thoughts of batteries powering everything from electric toothbrushes to smartphones and vehicles. However, at Invinity Energy Systems’ modest factory in Basgate, near Edinburgh, employees are nurturing the hope that Britain will also contribute to the battery revolution.
These batteries, which are based on vanadium
tIt may conjure thoughts of battery production lines and the expansive “gigafactory” projects of Elon Musk and Tesla worldwide, or images of batteries powering devices from electric toothbrushes to smartphones and cars. However, at Invinity Energy Systems’ modest factory in Basgate, near Edinburgh, employees are fostering hope that Britain will also play a pivotal role in the battery revolution.
These batteries, utilizing vanadium ions, can be housed within a 6-meter (20-foot), 25-ton shipping container. While they may not be used in vehicles, manufacturers aspire for this technology to find its place in the global storage rush, propelling a transition to net-zero carbon grids.
Renewable electricity represents the future of a cleaner and more economical energy system compared to fossil fuels. Its primary challenge lies in the fact that renewable energy generation is contingent on weather conditions—sunshine and wind may not be available when energy demand peaks. Battery storage allows for the shift of energy production, enabling it to be saved for later use, which is essential for a well-functioning electric grid.
“What has suddenly become apparent is that people have recognized the necessity of energy storage to integrate more renewable energy into the grid,” stated Jonathan Mullen, CEO of Invinity, at the factory where a series of batteries are stacked and shipped.
For a long time, experts have explored various methods for storing renewable electricity, but the issue of grid reliability gained political attention in April when Spain and Portugal experienced the largest blackouts in Europe in two decades. While some rushed to criticize renewable energy, a Spanish government report clarified that it was not the cause. Nonetheless, battery storage assists grids worldwide in avoiding similar complications as those seen in the Iberian Peninsula.
Power blackouts in Spain and Portugal in April highlighted the issues of energy security. Photo: Fermín Rodríguez/Nurphoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Much of the attention in battery research has focused on maximizing energy storage in the smallest and lightest containers suitable for electric vehicles. This development was crucial for the transition away from carbon-intensive gasoline and diesel, which are significant contributors to global warming. It also led to substantial reductions in the costs associated with lithium-ion batteries.
As with many aspects of the shift from fossil fuels to electric technologies, China is driving demand at an incredible scale. According to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, China has installed batteries with a capacity of 215 gigawatt hours (GWh).
China’s battery installations are expected to nearly quadruple by the end of 2027 as new projects are completed. For instance, the state-owned China Energy Engineering Corporation recently bid on a 25GWh battery project utilizing lithium iron phosphate technology, typically used in more affordable vehicles.
Iola Hughes, research director at a Benchmark subsidiary, Rho Motion, stated that declining prices and increased adoption of renewable energy are propelling the rise in demand. By 2027, total global battery storage installations could increase fivefold, Hughes noted, adding, “This figure could rise even further as technological advancements and reduced costs enable developers to construct battery energy storage systems at an unprecedented pace.”
The majority of this growth (95% of current figures) will involve projects utilizing lithium-ion batteries, including a site in Aberdeenshire managed by UK-based Zenobē Energy, which claims to have “the largest battery in Europe.”
Energy storage companies harnessing various technologies must navigate a challenging landscape to secure early-stage funding while proving that their technologies are economically viable. Invinity’s flow batteries use vanadium, while U.S.-based rival EOS Energy employs zinc. However, flow batteries often excel in applications requiring storage durations of over 6-8 hours, where lithium batteries typically fall short.
Cara King, an R&D scientist at Invinity Energy Systems, holds a vial of vanadium electrolyte in various states of charge. Photo: Murdo Macleod/The Guardian
Flow batteries leverage the unique properties of certain metals that can stably exist with varying electron counts. One transport unit contains two tanks of vanadium ions, each with different electron counts—one is “Royal Purple” and the other “IRN-Bru Red.” The system pumps the vanadium solution through a membrane stack that allows protons to pass, while electrons travel around the circuit to provide power. If electrons are driven in the opposite direction by solar panels or wind turbines, the process reverses, charging the battery, which can support a charge of up to 300 kilowatts.
A significant benefit of flow batteries is their relative ease of manufacturing compared to lithium-ion counterparts. Invinity managed to assemble a battery stack with just 90 employees, primarily sourced from Scottish parts.
Throughout the project’s lifespan, Mullen has maintained that “on a cost-per-cycle basis, it offers more value than lithium.” While the upfront costs are higher than those for lithium batteries—Invinity estimates around £100,000 per container—the longer lifespan without capacity loss and the absence of flammability means no costly fire safety equipment is necessary. The shipping container is already deployed next to Vibrant Motivation in Bristol, Oxford Auto Chargers, casinos in California, and solar parks in South Australia.
“We can commission the entire site within a few days,” Mullen remarked.
Invinity is valued at just over £90 million in the London AIM junior stock market and aspires for the UK to spearhead the flow battery niche.
UK manufacturing could be favorably considered in government contests for support under a “cap and floor” scheme that ensures electricity prices remain within a specified range. Should they succeed, the company anticipates a substantial increase in production from its current rate of five containers per week. Mullen envisions the possibility of employing up to 1,000 workers if the company flourishes.
“The potential for growth is immense,” Mullen stated. “Have we moved past the question of whether technology can scale effectively?”
The Lizard Peninsula in Cornwall has rocks capable of producing hydrogen gas
PIO3/SHUTTERSTOCK
Recent discoveries of small amounts of underground hydrogen gas have sparked a global search for a potential zero carbon fuel source, yet the UK has largely been overlooked by prospectors.
According to a Briefing from the Royal Society on natural hydrogen production, the lack of exploration is not due to geological factors. “There are rocks that could produce hydrogen, but no research has been conducted,” states Barbara Sherwood Lollar, who contributed to a report at the University of Toronto.
The UK also doesn’t lack interest in gas. The latest Hydrogen Strategy highlights its crucial role in achieving the ambition of becoming a clean energy superpower through low-carbon production methods for heavy industry and transportation, yet natural hydrogen is not mentioned as a potential source.
Novelty plays a role in this oversight, according to Philip Ball, who contributed to the report and invests in natural hydrogen firms at Keele University. “Essentially no one is paying attention. There’s no regulation for this emerging sector, and there’s a lack of understanding.”
However, the situation may be changing. Ball notes that several companies have obtained rights to explore hydrogen in parts of the UK, including Devon in the southwest, while multiple universities conduct related research. The UK Geological Survey is also delving into the country’s potential for natural hydrogen, drawing on a wealth of existing geological data.
There is reason to believe that natural hydrogen exists beneath the surface. A report by the Royal Society notes that certain types of rocks, particularly iron-rich super-solid rocks, can generate hydrogen when interacting with water. Such formations are found in locations like the Lizard Peninsula in Cornwall and Scotland’s Shetland Islands. Geoplasms in areas like the North Pennines could also yield hydrogen through the breakdown of water molecules via natural radioactivity.
“It will definitely be found in the UK,” Ball asserts. “The question remains whether it will be economically viable.”
If hydrogen is discovered in the UK, expectations should be tempered; Sherwood Lollar emphasizes that one of the report’s goals was to correct some exaggerated claims about natural hydrogen, such as the concept of massive quantities of gas continually rising from the Earth’s mantle and core.
Nonetheless, it is critical to consider conservative estimates of the hydrogen production within the Earth’s crust. The report indicates that around 1 million tonnes of hydrogen permeates the crust annually. “Even capturing a fraction of this could significantly contribute to the hydrogen economy,” Sherwood Lollar states.
Extreme weather and bark beetles have devastated many trees in the Harz Mountains, Germany
Rob Cousins/Alamy
The abrupt and significant drop in carbon absorption by European forests has ignited concern among scientists, who fear that a marked decline could hinder efforts to combat global warming.
For many years, European forests, which span around 40% of the continent’s land area, have played a dual role as sources of timber and as carbon sinks. However, increasing extreme weather events are pushing these forests beyond their limits, swiftly altering the landscape.
“Many [European Union] countries will struggle to meet their [land-use climate] targets due to this sink reduction,” states Glen Peters from the Cicero International Climate Research Centre in Norway.
Earlier this year, Finnish officials revealed that their forest ecosystem had shifted from functioning as a net carbon sink to becoming a net carbon source. This development follows Germany’s declaration that its forests became the first in the country’s history to record a net increase in carbon emissions. Additionally, the Czech Republic has reported its forests as net carbon sources since 2018.
While these instances are particularly severe, carbon absorption rates are dwindling rapidly in many other nations. For instance, in France, the carbon uptake by forests has nearly halved in just 14 years, with a study released last month documenting a decrease from a peak of 37.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually in 2008 to 74.1 million tonnes in 2022. Concurrently, Norway’s carbon absorption has plummeted from 32 million tonnes in 2010 to 18 million tonnes in 2022.
“The trend had remained relatively stable from 2013 to 2015,” comments Korosuo at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre in Belgium. “This is a widespread issue, not confined to just one or two countries. Similar patterns are observable across nearly all forested nations.”
Many forests in Europe are privately owned and commercially managed. Some of the decrease in carbon sinks has been linked to increased logging, particularly following the sanctions on Russian timber imports due to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. For example, Finland has seen strong demand for wood, leading to heightened harvesting levels, notes Raisa from the Natural Resources Institute of Finland.
However, scientists also attribute the rapid decline in carbon storage to the escalating impacts of climate change.
Europe has faced several droughts in recent years, with 2018 and 2022 marking the harshest conditions. Wouter Peters at Wageningen University in the Netherlands highlights that his research indicates the 2022 drought caused a significant reduction in carbon intake by European forests during summer months. “We’re observing immediate effects; the trees are under stress,” he comments.
Researchers had expected that as global temperatures rise, European forests would diminish in health, yet the extent of the recent decline is still astonishing. Wouter Peters explains, “The impact seems to be more severe than anticipated.”
This downturn could be a result of successive droughts occurring within a few years, exacerbated by other extreme weather events such as storms that disturb forests. “We see not just one drought in 2018, but additional ones in 2021 and 2022,” Wouter Peters notes. “Our models have not effectively accounted for this concentration of drought events over such a short time frame.”
Moreover, rising temperatures are leading to more frequent and widespread infestations of bark beetles across Europe, which are severely damaging spruce forests. The Czech Republic, in particular, has faced seven major bark beetle outbreaks from 2018 to 2021.
A declining carbon sink poses a threat to the EU’s climate objectives, which depend on forests to absorb the bulk of emissions generated by other sectors. The EU is even aiming to enhance this carbon sink to support its climate ambitions, targeting a removal of 310 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents annually by 2030, a significant increase from the approximately 230 million tonnes currently removed.
However, a recent analysis published in April warns that European carbon sinks are projected to decrease by around 29% below the 2030 target, with researchers cautioning that the capability of European forests to absorb carbon will “gradually deteriorate.”
Preventative measures can help mitigate this decline, such as reducing harvesting rates and prohibiting clear-cutting in plantations, which can maintain carbon stocks. Additionally, increasing species diversity and retaining some deadwood can enhance forest health and resilience against pests and droughts.
Nonetheless, Wouter Peters argues that policymakers are overestimating the carbon absorption potential of forests in warmer climates. “There has likely been an over-reliance on forests, particularly in the context of greenhouse gas emissions,” he contends. He emphasizes that other sectors must rapidly reduce emissions to meet European climate goals. “This implies that we need intensified efforts in other areas.”
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising at unprecedented rates, despite an overall stagnation in greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists attribute this acceleration to slower carbon absorption rates in forests, wetlands, and peatlands globally, compounded by deforestation and increased emissions from wildfires and droughts that weaken global land sinks.
This issue is most pronounced in mid-latitude regions. Alongside Europe, significant declines in carbon sink capacity have also been recorded in boreal forests of Alaska and Canada. Tropical forests are facing challenges from both deforestation and diminished carbon storage capacity, primarily due to wildfires.
This poses a serious challenge to global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions. “In a broad global context, the entire concept of net zero hinges on the functionality of forests and oceans. If these systems cease to effectively sequester carbon, it will lead to increased atmospheric carbon levels and accelerated global warming.”
A dog chased a ball past me at full speed across the open fields of Seascale Beach, Cumbria. The beach is surrounded by a small park, rows of shops, and houses, with tall chimneys and large rectangular buildings visible on a vast industrial site as you walk north.
Close to Seascale Beach is the Sellafield complex, a 2 square mile nuclear facility located 5 km away. Sellafield is home to most of the UK’s radioactive nuclear waste and the world’s largest store of plutonium.
I visited Sellafield earlier this year to learn about the management of Britain’s nuclear waste. It was an eye-opening and expensive lesson in dealing with hazardous material with no clear plan.
Sellafield played a crucial role in producing plutonium during the Cold War. The current cleanup operation involves processing and storing spent nuclear fuel, cooling and stabilizing it, then storing it in silos covered with steel and concrete.
Initially, safe long-term storage was not a priority, leading to waste being disposed of from decades ago. The process of moving waste from dilapidated silos to more modern stores is ongoing.
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A recent report by the National Board of Audit highlighted that Sellafield is still in the early stages of the cleanup mission, expected to last until 2125 with an estimated cost of £136bn, showcasing uncertainty about the exact tasks and timeline.
The plan for the most dangerous nuclear waste is to bury it deep underground in a geological disposal facility (GDF). Finding a suitable location involves not just solid rock but also a willing community.
Three communities are currently in discussion about building a GDF facility, with experts believing it to be the best option. Several countries are also working on similar facilities.
The complexity of site selection may delay the facility’s opening until the 2040s or 2050s, amidst a push for new nuclear power to reduce emissions and reach net zero.
As we navigate through the challenges of nuclear waste management, experts like Professor Claire Corkhill from the University of Bristol play a crucial role in advancing our understanding of radioactive waste.
About our expert Professor Claire Corkhill
Claire is Professor of Mineralogy and Radioactive Waste Management in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol.
Her work has been published in magazines material, nature, and ceramics.
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Russia’s plan to reach net zero by 2060 relies on existing forests to absorb continued carbon emissions
Varnakov R/Shutterstock
Countries are taking shortcuts to net-zero emissions by including forests and other “passive” carbon sinks in their climate plans, a tactic that thwarts global efforts to halt climate change. leading researchers have warned.
Relying on natural carbon sinks to absorb continued carbon emissions from human activities will keep the world warmer. This comes from the researchers who first developed the science behind net zero emissions and today launched a highly unusual intervention accusing nations and companies of abusing the concept.
“This document calls on people to be clear about what net zero really means.” Miles Allen The Oxford University professor said this at a press conference on November 14th.
Natural sinks such as forests and peat bogs play an important role in the Earth’s natural carbon cycle by absorbing some of the carbon from the atmosphere. However, we cannot rely on existing sinks to offset ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.
If used in this way, global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would remain stable even when we reach “net zero,” and warming would continue for centuries due to the way the oceans absorb heat. Allen warned. “Even if we think we’re on the path to 1.5C, we could end up with temperatures rising well above 2C,” he says. “This ambiguity could effectively destroy the goals of the Paris Agreement.”
To halt global temperature rise, we need to reduce emissions to net zero, without relying on passive absorption by land and oceans. This allows existing natural sinks to continue absorbing excess CO2, reducing the concentration of the gas in the atmosphere and offsetting ongoing warming from the deep ocean.
However, many countries already count passive land sinks such as forests as greenhouse gas removals in their national carbon accounts. In some countries, such as Bhutan, Gabon, and Suriname, Already declared net zeroThanks to the existing vast forests.
Some companies are setting long-term net-zero targets based on this approach. For example Russia Pledging to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060but this plan relies heavily on using existing forests to absorb ongoing carbon emissions.
“Maybe some countries will use this in a deliberately naughty way.” glenn peters He is from the CICERO International Climate Research Center in Oslo, Norway, and spoke at a press conference. “This problem will be even more problematic in countries where forest area is a large proportion of total land area.”
The researchers fear this problem will become more serious as carbon markets develop and pressure on countries to decarbonize increases. “As the value of carbon increases, there will be more pressure to define anything that can be removed as a negative emission, potentially to be able to sell it in the carbon offset market,” Allen said.
Countries and companies with net-zero targets will need to modify their approach to exclude passive carbon sequestration from their accounts, the researchers say.
Natural sinks count as carbon removal when they are added to existing ones, for example when new forests are planted or peat bogs are rewetted. However, this type of natural carbon sink is vulnerable to climate impacts such as wildfires, drought, and the spread of invasive species, and is unreliable for long-term sequestration.
This has not stopped countries from relying heavily on these natural sinks in their net-zero strategies. one 2022 survey It turns out that a number of countries, including the United States, France, Cambodia and Costa Rica, plan to rely on forest carbon and other naturally occurring removals to offset ongoing emissions. “Many national strategies ‘bet’ on increasing carbon sinks in forests and soils as a means of achieving long-term goals,” the study authors wrote.
Allen stressed that natural carbon sinks must be conserved but not relied on to balance ongoing emissions. Instead, he urges countries to aim for “geological net zero,” where all ongoing carbon emissions are balanced by long-term carbon sequestration in underground storage.
“Countries need to recognize the need for geological net zero,” he said. “That means if we are producing carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels by mid-century, we need to have a plan to put that carbon dioxide back into the ground.”
“Geological net zero seems like a sensible global goal for countries to aspire to,” he says. harry smith At the University of East Anglia, UK. “This will help clarify many of the ambiguities that plague the current way countries consider land travel.”
But he warns that it could have a knock-on effect on climate ambitions. “What does the new politics of geological net zero look like? If geological net zero drives the goals of governments’ climate strategies, what does this mean for governments’ climate change ambitions?” Will it have an impact?”
Vehicles equipped with technology to collect data on building conditions
Madeleine Cuff
British city dwellers may have spotted a strange-looking vehicle driving around their neighborhood earlier this year. It looked just like a Google Street View vehicle, with a camera setup sticking out of the back to scan its surroundings. And like the Google car, it scanned city streets and took photos.
But these modified Teslas do more than just take pictures: they’re equipped with cutting-edge sensors and scanners that can report back the exact dimensions, heat loss, materials, age and state of disrepair of every building they drive over.
The car, equipped with what’s called the Built Environment Scanning System (BESS), has been on a spree to find out just how leaky and dilapidated Britain’s buildings really are. Between March and May, the car scanned thousands of roads and millions of buildings across London, Liverpool, Cardiff, Glasgow, Manchester, Leeds and South Yorkshire.
Data from BESS vehicles will be combined with thermal images taken by drones and planes in a £4 million government-funded project to build a huge digital database detailing the condition of buildings across the U.K. The aim is to help housing associations, local authorities and other property owners quickly plan renovation projects for hundreds of properties at once, says Ahsan Khan of xRI, the British nonprofit behind the project.
Decarbonising UK buildings is one of the toughest challenges on the journey to net-zero emissions. The UK’s 30 million buildings account for around a third of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, with most of the pollution coming from the use of gas for heating and hot water.
Another problem is that many of the UK’s homes are old and drafty. Retrofitting these homes to make them more energy efficient is crucial, but knowing where to start is a huge challenge, as the age and condition of the buildings varies greatly. “We’re held back as a nation because we don’t really know what we have, where it is in terms of the built environment, and what we can do about it,” says Khan.
Currently, the only means of judging a building’s sustainability is the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC), a mandatory document that rates every building on a scale of A to G and gives owners advice on how to improve the rating. But EPCs, which rely on the judgement of in-person assessors, are “expensive, time-consuming and inaccurate”, says Dr. Mike Pitts The project is part-funded by the government body Innovate UK, with other funding coming from the UK Space Agency and the Welsh Government.
For organisations such as housing associations and local authorities who want to renovate hundreds of properties at once, EPCs are of little use – instead they often have to send their own assessors to the properties and plan the works schedule, which is a costly and time-consuming undertaking.
Speeding up renovations
The new database is expected to digitise much of this process. If it works as planned, it will use machine learning to tell councils, for example, how many properties already have double glazing installed, or which homes need top-up cavity-wall insulation. In an instant, it will be able to pinpoint exactly which homes have the space and sunlight to install rooftop solar panels. Crucially, it will calculate projected savings on energy bills and provide return-on-investment information, helping organisations access green finance.
“The xRI project represents a major advance in our understanding of our existing stock,” says Mat Colmer of Innovate UK. “The validated data set will improve and automate the refurbishment process, speeding up the entire refurbishment process.”
About 7.5% of homes in England, Scotland, and Wales have already been scanned, and Khan says the framework is in place to build a beta version of the database, due to be released later this year. For now, xRI is focused on decarbonizing buildings, but the BESS vehicles are collecting data on everything they see, from tree cover to potholes, that could be put to use in the future. “The amount of data is just staggering,” Pitts says.
David Grew Researchers from Britain’s Leeds Beckett University call the project “exciting,” but warn that an in-home inspection is essential before any renovation work begins. “Homes have been tampered with many times, so the same home could be completely different,” he says. “This quick and agile method is great for accelerating progress and momentum, but it can’t and shouldn’t replace a really high-quality inspection before construction begins.”
Kate Simpson A researcher at Nottingham Trent University in the UK says neighbourhood data collected by BESS vehicles could help plan local power grid upgrades and climate resilience projects. But the data needs to be collected carefully, she says. “What’s the minimum amount of data we need to make the right decisions?” she says. “That way we can minimise the environmental impact of storing that data.”
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