The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has disclosed that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are set to soar to unprecedented heights in 2024, reaching levels not seen since records began.

According to WMO, the global average CO2 concentration is projected to rise by 3.5 ppm from 2023 to 2024, reaching 423.9 ppm. This marks the largest increase observed since modern measurements began in 1957, significantly surpassing the 2.3 ppm rise from 2022 to 2023.

This continues a troubling trend of accelerating increases each year, with the growth rate tripling since the 1960s. The last instance of comparable CO2 levels on Earth dates back 3 to 5 million years.

The WMO cautions that surplus carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to global warming effects for centuries. “The heat captured by CO2 and other greenhouse gases is speeding up climate change and causing increasingly severe weather events,” stated Ko Barrett from the WMO.

Continued emissions from fossil fuels, a rise in emissions from wildfires, and a slow rate of carbon dioxide absorption by the planet’s land and oceans were identified as the primary factors behind last year’s record rise, as per WMO’s reports.

Researchers are forecasting that carbon uptake by oceans, forests, and other ecosystems will slow down in 2024 due to recent El Niño weather patterns, which have increased global temperatures and caused heatwaves, wildfires, and droughts in significant areas like the Amazon, thereby hindering carbon absorption. Scientists earlier this year indicated that the loss of tropical forests in 2024 will double compared to 2023. “In certain tropical regions, warm El Niño years like 2024 are generally drier and sequester less carbon dioxide,” noted Richard Allan from the University of Reading, UK.

Nevertheless, there are growing concerns that the decline in carbon uptake by Earth, particularly from land, is indicative of a long-term trend, suggesting that climate change is diminishing the planet’s capacity to absorb excess carbon.

“There are indications that land subsidence was markedly low in 2023 and 2024, even amidst the El Niño conditions, and we are witnessing a troubling decline over time, especially in the Northern Hemisphere outside of tropical regions,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute. “In summary, there are alarming signs that land subsidence is decreasing, but it’s premature to make definitive conclusions without additional data over the coming years.”

In the meantime, it is more critical than ever for humanity to reduce ongoing fossil fuel emissions. Piers Foster, from the University of Leeds, UK, explained, “The primary factor driving the persistent increase in CO2 concentrations is that fossil fuel emissions remain at record levels and have yet to decline.”