dOnaldo Trump’s re-entry into the White House has triggered a swift increase in defense spending as European leaders distance themselves from the US, marking a “turning point” in continental security. The new push for European independence could resonate further across the globe.

The aspiration for greater autonomy in Europe also translates into a greater demand for advancements in space technology, states Josef Aschbacher, director of the European Space Agency (ESA), which oversees space exploration initiatives among European nations, including those in the EU and much of the UK.

“There are numerous areas in space where Europe seeks to enhance its autonomy, particularly in an increasingly unstable geopolitical climate,” Aschbacher mentioned in an interview with the Guardian in London. “The landscape has shifted dramatically.”

Human interest in space is at an all-time high. We are currently witnessing a Second Space Race, with governments and private entities leveraging significant advancements in satellites, sensors, and, crucially, rockets. Analysts predict a growth trajectory for the industry to reach $100 million, akin to today’s airline industry, with expected surges in global observation, communication, and potentially space tourism. Increased military expenditure under Trump may further accelerate the push for advanced surveillance technologies.

However, Aschbacher emphasizes the importance of continued investment in scientific endeavors that forward humanity’s interests, which include projects like laser-based wind speed measurements, climate monitoring satellites, and the Euclidean telescope aimed at unraveling the enigma of dark matter.

For decades, collaboration with the US has been pivotal for European space science. ESA partners with American agencies, contributing to everything from astronaut missions on the International Space Station to the James Webb Telescope exploring the universe’s early radiation, as well as the Artemis program, which aims to revisit the Moon. Aschbacher oversees a budget of €7.7 billion (£6.4 billion) this year but is dwarfed by NASA’s budget of $25.4 billion (£19.6 billion).

Trump’s return raises uncertainties around the continuity of this cooperation, particularly if the US implements abrupt funding cuts to NASA.

Elon Musk adds further complexity. His SpaceX could become the primary driver in significantly reducing launch costs, thanks to its reusable Falcon 9 rocket. However, Musk’s controversial approach under Trump raises concerns regarding potential conflicts of interest as a primary NASA contractor. Trump’s decision to forgo billionaire Jared Isaacman, who was a fully paid SpaceX-supported NASA leader, has led Musk to criticize Artemis in favor of his vision to send humans to Mars.

European nations are also striving to reduce their reliance on SpaceX’s Starlink, a network of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Starlink has established a massive LEO constellation, providing reliable internet in remote regions and has become crucial for military communications in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022.

When questioned about Musk’s influence, Aschbacher refrained from discussing “the internal politics of the United States and how these decisions might be affected.”

ESA is committed to its planned projects, including the construction of Orion capsules for astronaut transport, asserting, “We are optimistic that the collaboration with the US on the Artemis program will continue.”

“If changes occur, and if a US partner alters its plans, of course, we have a Plan B ready,” Aschbacher stated. “We are certainly enhancing our autonomy and capabilities. However, now is not the moment to discuss Plan B, as Plan A remains active.”

Nevertheless, ESA is also exploring partnerships with other nations that could support “Plan B.” Aschbacher pointed to Australia, the United Arab Emirates, and India as potential collaborators.

SpaceX asserted its dominance last month when the Dragon Capsule safely returned four individuals. Two had been stranded at the International Space Station due to technical problems with Boeing’s Starliner craft.

Europe has depended on SpaceX to launch segments of its Galileo satellite navigation system following the retirement of the Ariane 5 rocket. Both systems are operated by Arianespace, and the Vega C grounding is co-owned by Airbus and Safran. This led to a “crisis launch,” which was finally resolved with the inaugural flight of the Ariane 6 rocket last year.

ESA is now focused on encouraging more launch competitors for the upcoming generation, emphasizing reusable rockets to replicate SpaceX’s cost-effectiveness. According to Aschbacher, one ESA-led initiative, the Prometheus Engine, is projected to launch in “a handful” of years. Other European private firms are also entering the race, including Augsburg, a German startup rocket manufacturer.

Once everything is on track, launches could also take place from the UK, reducing ESA’s dependence on space facilities in French Guiana, South America. Aschbacher mentioned that developing British spacecraft, especially in Shetland, is another positive development. The ESA, funded by 23 member states but not affiliated with the EU, shows that Brexit has not hindered the UK’s commitment, although the Copernicus Climate Satellite program has faced disruptions.

While ESA’s primary mission is to peacefully explore space, its potential military applications may facilitate increased funding from member states in November to cover gaps left by the US.

Nevertheless, Aschbacher is a scientist at heart. He studied natural sciences at Innsbruck University and joined ESA in 1990, eventually leading the Earth Observation Department. He acknowledged that space technology is integral to enabling numerous security needs for European countries but emphasized the importance of ongoing investment in science.

He likened investment in space to fundamental research that enabled scientists to develop COVID vaccines at remarkable speed during the pandemic.

“European investments in space must rise to ensure that the quality of life and living standards for Europeans are sustained,” he remarked. “Science is Europe’s strength. This is why economic progress and development can indeed accelerate.”