The flow of melted snow creates channels through a glacier cave at the Morteratsch Glacier in Switzerland. Lander Van Tricht
Currently, approximately 1,000 glaciers are disappearing each year, and if nations fulfill their carbon emission reduction goals, this could escalate to 3,000 glaciers lost annually by 2040.
Over the past two decades, at least 4,000 glaciers have melted. Lander Van Tricht and researchers at ETH Zurich in Switzerland utilized climate models to forecast the fate of the globe’s 211,000 glaciers in the coming century under various global warming scenarios.
If current climate targets remain unchanged, the planet is predicted to warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels this century. This projection implies that 79% of the world’s glaciers will vanish by 2100. Conversely, if humanity manages to limit climate change to 2 degrees Celsius, 63% of glaciers will disappear.
“While we are destined to lose many glaciers, we still have the potential to protect a significant number,” observes David Rounce, who conducted research at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
If countries fail to meet their emissions targets and global warming escalates to 4°C, a staggering 91% of glaciers will be lost.
The forecast for glacier melting is predicted to accelerate sea level rise this century by 25 centimeters. Additionally, it will diminish the summer snowmelt water supply that many regions depend on for irrigation. Approximately two billion individuals live in watersheds nourished by mountain snow and ice, with many residing near rivers originating from Himalayan glaciers.
Moreover, melting ice poses a higher risk of flooding caused by sudden water releases from glacial lakes. In a 2023 incident in India, flooding resulted in the deaths of 55 individuals.
Previous studies have indicated that even if warming is restricted to the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, half of all glaciers will still melt this century. The recent research suggests that up to 55% may be lost at this level of warming.
The study also outlines the annual glacier loss rate by region. This rate is expected to peak around the mid-century and then decline as smaller glaciers disappear, leaving behind larger ones, particularly in the North and South Poles.
“Large ice takes time to melt, so they will take longer to disappear,” Van Tricht explains.
According to current climate goals, western Canada and the continental United States are likely to lose nearly all their glaciers by 2100. This is a significant setback for tourism, as Montana’s Glacier National Park is expected to lose the majority of its glaciers, although some may endure as small glaciers or ice remnants, based on future studies from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Similarly, the Alps are projected to be largely devoid of glaciers. Local communities are already holding glacier funerals, chronicling the stories of global glacier losses at a dedicated website. In 2019, around 250 individuals, including professors from ETH Zurich involved in this research, trekked to the remnants of the Pizol glacier.
They gathered not only to bid farewell but also to convey to the public that “we are connected to the glacier,” stated Matthias Hass. “When they are gone, it will be a significant loss for us.”
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Source: www.newscientist.com
