Tag Archives: predicts

Spacecraft Predicts Solar Storm 15 Hours Before Impact with Earth

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Solar activity

Solar Storms Threaten Electronic Systems on Earth

Solar Dynamics Observatory, NASA.

Following the successful testing of techniques using solar group spacecraft, it may soon be possible to forecast significant solar storms capable of disrupting Earth’s electronics by more than half a day in advance.

The Sun periodically emits powerful plasma bursts known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which create strong magnetic fields that can harm electronics on our planet. While satellites and telescopes do monitor CME indicators, their predictions depend on the magnetic field within each CME, making it challenging to identify which emissions will be hazardous.

One of the most reliable instruments for assessing these magnetic fields is found in satellites positioned in gravity-stable orbits around the Earth, known as Lagrange Points. Though these satellites are positioned hundreds of thousands of kilometers away, they exist at only about 1% of the distance to the Sun, which contributes to their ability to provide warnings about the intensity of a CME within an hour of its impact.

Now, Emma Davis from Glaz and her colleagues at Austria’s Space Meteorological Office have discovered a method utilizing the European Space Agency’s solar orbiter to issue earlier alerts. “Solar Orbiters are primarily a scientific mission and not specifically designed for this purpose,” Davis explains. “This is an added benefit from unforeseen alignments during a CME event.”

On March 17th and 23rd of this year, two sets of CMEs were heading toward Earth while the solar orbiter was positioned between our planet and the Sun. Davis and her team leveraged the spacecraft’s magnetic field and solar wind speed measurements to model the internal magnetic architecture of each CME and anticipate the severity of the geomagnetic storms they would induce. Remarkably, the entire forecasting process required less than five minutes, allowing predictions 7 and 15 hours before the events reached Earth.

Davis noted that their predictions closely aligned with the actual geomagnetic strengths observed, which she found remarkable considering the dynamic changes the CME’s magnetic fields undergo as they approach Earth. “The fortunate aspect was that not many unexpected events occurred, and these CMEs behaved rather predictably,” she adds.

She cautions that upcoming storms may not follow the same predictable patterns and that determining the exact arrival time of these storms remains challenging, with uncertainties lasting several hours.

Nevertheless, she underscores the importance of real-time measurements once a CME departs from the Sun. Chris Scott from the University of Reading, UK, who was not part of this research, noted, “It provides an early indication of the potential configuration of the magnetic fields within each eruption.”

However, data from these two events alone are insufficient for fine-tuning predictive models, and further observations are essential before establishing reliable, specialized solar storm monitoring missions near the Sun, Scott concludes.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Microsoft predicts that AI will transform the workplace, empowering everyone to become leaders.

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Microsoft has exciting news for those aspiring to hold high-ranking positions. In the future, we will all have AI employees under our supervision.

Tech companies are forecasting the emergence of a new type of business known as “frontier companies.” These companies involve human workers instructing autonomous AI agents to carry out tasks.

According to Microsoft, everyone will become bosses of AI agents.

Microsoft envisions a future where workers will act as “CEO of agents-equipped startups,” managing and delegating tasks to AI agents to maximize their impact in the AI era.

Microsoft, a key supporter of ChatGpt developer Openai, anticipates that all organizations will transition to becoming frontier companies within the next five years. These companies operate based on “on-demand intelligence,” utilizing AI agents for quick answers to internal tasks like generating and editing sales data.

In their Annual Work Trend Index Report, Microsoft stated that these frontier companies scale rapidly, work with agility, and deliver value efficiently.

The evolution of the AI Boss class is envisioned to happen in three phases: AI assistants for all employees, AI agents as digital coworkers handling specific tasks, and humans providing instructions to these agents for business processes and workflows.

Microsoft highlighted the impact of AI on knowledge work, where tasks across various professions will transition from code assistance to AI agents performing the work.

They gave an example in the supply chain industry where humans guide the system and manage relationships with suppliers while AI agents handle logistics from end to end.

Microsoft is promoting the deployment of AI in the workplace through autonomous AI agents or tools that enable users to carry out tasks without human intervention. Organizations like McKinsey are early adopters of Microsoft’s Copilot Studio products, leveraging AI agents for tasks like scheduling meetings.

While AI is expected to eliminate repetitive tasks and enhance productivity, concerns exist regarding potential job displacement. Reports suggest that a significant number of jobs could be impacted negatively by AI advancements.

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Experts suggest that AI deployment may lead to job losses, but also create new opportunities. Organizations may rely more on AI workers to enhance efficiency and lower operational costs, potentially reducing the need for human labor.

Apart from economic impacts, replacing humans with AI risks losing the expertise of individuals who drive business innovation and maintain valuable relationships.

Source: www.theguardian.com

AI predicts upcoming storm

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In 2027, powerful artificial intelligence systems are surpassing human intelligence, causing global chaos. Chinese spies are stealing American AI secrets, prompting a rush to retaliate from the White House. Engineers in major AI labs are discovering that models are starting to deceive them, increasing the risk of fraud.

These scenarios are not from sci-fi scripts but are predictions from the AI Futures Project, a nonprofit based in Berkeley, California. Over the past year, they have been forecasting the future as AI systems become more advanced.

Led by former Openai researcher Daniel Kokotajlo, the project aims to anticipate what the world will look like as AI continues to evolve.

While working at Openai, Kokotajlo wrote a report on the competition for artificial general intelligence (AGI) and later partnered with Eli Lifeland to predict the next wave of AI advancements.

The AI 2027 report and website have been released this week, detailing a future where AI surpasses human-level intelligence within the next 2-3 years.

According to Kokotajlo, AI systems are expected to become completely autonomous and superior to humans by the end of 2027.

The AI Futures project combines predictive scenarios with science fiction storytelling to envision a possible future impacted by powerful AI systems.

The project’s extreme views have garnered both critics and supporters in the AI community, with some questioning the scientific basis of their predictions.

The AI Futures project aims to incorporate anticipated developments into engaging narratives, despite potential criticism from skeptics.

Critics suggest that fictional AI stories may entertain more than educate, while some AI experts question the group’s assertion that AI will surpass human intelligence.

Despite differing opinions, the project’s speculative predictions offer a unique perspective on the implications of advanced AI technologies.

While some of the scenarios may seem extreme, it is important to consider the potential impact of rapidly advancing AI systems on society.

Kokotajlo’s predictions for AI development milestones include the emergence of superhuman coders and AI researchers by 2027.

As AI systems continue to evolve, the future remains uncertain, with potential implications for various industries and societal norms.

The scenarios presented by the AI Futures project highlight the need for thoughtful consideration of AI’s impact on civilization.

Predicting the future of AI, even with differing opinions, is essential to preparing for the potential challenges and opportunities that advanced technology may bring.

By early 2027, AI is projected to surpass human capabilities in coding and research, leading to unprecedented advancements in AI technology.

The AI Futures project’s focus on fictional AI companies and their progression towards superhuman intelligence offers a speculative glimpse into a possible future.

The emergence of superintelligent AI poses both challenges and opportunities for society, prompting reflection on the implications of advanced AI technologies.

As AI systems advance, it is crucial to consider the ethical, social, and economic implications of superintelligent AI on a global scale.

The future of AI remains uncertain, with predictions ranging from optimistic advancements to catastrophic scenarios.

Despite the uncertainties, forecasting the impact of advanced AI technologies is essential for preparing society for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

The AI Futures project’s speculative scenarios offer a glimpse into a future where AI surpasses human intelligence, raising important questions about the role of AI in society.

As AI continues to evolve, it is vital to consider how to navigate the potential risks and benefits of superintelligent AI in the coming years.

Source: www.nytimes.com

AI Predicts Weather Instantly Without a Supercomputer

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Thunderstorms in Indonesia seen from the International Space Station

NASA EARTH OBSERVATORATORY / INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION (ISS)

Its creators claim that AI weather programs running for a second on the desktop can match the accuracy of traditional predictions that take hours or days on a powerful supercomputer.

Weather forecasts rely on physics-based models that extrapolate from observations made using satellites, balloons and weather stations since the 1950s. However, these calculations, known as numerical weather forecasts (NWPs), are highly concentrated and rely on vast, expensive, energy-hungry supercomputers.

In recent years, researchers have tried to streamline this process by applying AI. Last year, Google Scientists created an AI tool that could replace a small chunk of complex code in each cell of a weather model, dramatically reducing computer power. DeepMind later went further by doing this, using AI to replace the entire prediction. This approach is adopted by European Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The tool has been launched Last month it was called the Artificial Intelligence Prediction System.

However, this gradual expansion of the role of AI in weather forecasting has not replaced the calculation of all traditional figures – the new model created by Richard Turner Cambridge University and his colleagues are looking for change.

Turner says that previous work was limited to prediction and passed a step called initialization. There, data from satellites, balloons and weather stations around the world is collated, washed, manipulated and integrated into an organized grid where predictions can begin. “It’s actually half the computational resource,” Turner says.

The researchers created a model called Aardvark Weather. This replaces both the prediction and initialization stages for the first time. It uses only 10% of the input data that existing systems make, but achieves results comparable to the latest NWP predictions. Turner and his colleagues report in a study assessing the method.

Generating a perfect prediction that takes hours or days on a powerful NWP prediction supercomputer can be done in about a second on a single desktop computer using Aardvark.

However, Aardvark uses a grid model of the Earth’s surface with a square cell of 1.5 degrees, while ECMWF’s ERA5 model uses a grid with cells. 0.3 degrees smaller. This means that Aardvark’s model is too rough to pick up complex and unexpected weather patterns, David Schultz At the University of Manchester, UK.

“There are a lot of unresolved things that could blow up predictions,” Schultz says. “They don’t represent any extremes at all. They can’t solve it on this scale.”

Turner argues that Aardvark can actually beat some existing models. However, he acknowledges that AI models like him also rely entirely on these physics-based models. “It’s absolutely not working just to steal training data and train with observational data,” he says. “We tried to do that and did a complete modelless physics, but it didn’t work.”

He believes the future of weather forecasting could be scientists working on more accurate physics-based models. This is used to train AI models that replicate output faster and with less hardware. Some are even more optimistic about the AI ​​outlook.

Nikita Gouryanov At Oxford University, we believe that AI will eventually be able to produce weather forecasts that actually exceed NWP. They are trained solely on observational and historical weather data, and produce accurate predictions that are completely independent of the NWP, he says. “It’s a matter of scale, but also a matter of smartness. You have to be smart about how you deliver data and how you build the structure of a neural network.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

The World’s Leading AI Expert Predicts a Strange 2050

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Ray Kurzweil is a prominent figure in the field of artificial intelligence, with over 60 years of experience. He has achieved many milestones in AI development, such as inventing the first commercially available large vocabulary speech recognition software. Kurzweil’s expertise in AI was recognized with the National Medal of Technology by President Bill Clinton in 1999 and his induction into the National Inventors Hall of Fame in 2002.

In addition to his practical accomplishments, Kurzweil is known for his accurate predictions about future technologies. His book “The Singularity is Near,” published in 2005, explored the rapid advances in computing and AI, predicting the future impact of AI on society. In his follow-up book, “The Singularity is Approaching,” Kurzweil delves into how AI will reshape our lives.

Kurzweil forecasts significant changes ahead, particularly in the realm of artificial general intelligence (AGI). He believes AGI will surpass human abilities in various cognitive tasks, potentially becoming available by 2029. The pace of technological advances in AI is accelerating exponentially, with Kurzweil emphasizing the need to prepare for the evolution of AI.

Another groundbreaking prediction by Kurzweil is the potential end of aging through advancements in healthcare and technology. He envisions a future where aging can be slowed down or prevented entirely, with life expectancy increasing significantly. Kurzweil’s optimistic outlook extends to the integration of AI with human intelligence by 2050, creating a new form of intelligence through the merging of human brains with computers.

As a futurist, author, and inventor, Ray Kurzweil continues to shape the conversation around AI and its impact on society. His visionary insights invite us to consider the possibilities and challenges that lie ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of artificial intelligence.

Source: www.sciencefocus.com

AI that predicts flavor preferences can advise brewers on improving beer taste

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Beer brewers produce a wide variety of flavors from just a handful of ingredients

Cthredrig/Getty Images

Artificial intelligence that can predict taste from beer's chemical composition could help create alcohol-free versions that taste exactly like regular beer.

Predicting flavor from a compound is difficult because complex interactions between ingredients and the psychology of taste can result in surprisingly different perceptions, even among people who have tasted the same thing.

To deal with this, kevin verstrapen Professors at the University of Leuven in Belgium have developed an AI model that can predict the flavor profile of beer based on its chemical composition and suggest ways to improve the flavor.

The model was trained on beer reviews by a panel of 16 expert tasters who scored each beer on 50 attributes, as well as 180,000 public ratings from online beer rating websites. The study compared these subjective descriptions with measurements of 226 compounds in 250 Belgian beers.

“Hundreds of these compounds are received by our nose and mouth, but mostly in the nose, and then processed in the brain to give us what we think of as flavor,” Verstrepen says. “The fact that we can actually predict this accurately using machine learning is pretty amazing.”

Verstrepen and his team used this model to predict how to improve the flavor of beer by adding mixtures of specific compounds, such as lactic acid and ethyl acetate. The resulting beer was given significantly higher ratings by a panel of trained tasters.

In another study, which has not yet been published, after making the changes suggested by the model, non-alcoholic beer became indistinguishable from regular beer, Verstrepen said.

The idea is that brewers should aim to implement AI recommendations by tweaking recipes, rather than simply adding flavors, he says. “Simply adding pure aroma compounds is not really acceptable in beer brewing. All you need is malt, hops, water, and yeast.”

“So I look at it as a tool, specifically to be used to make better non-alcoholic beer, but not to take away the art of crafting good beer in an artisanal way,” Versträpen said. To tell.

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  • Eating and drinking

Source: www.newscientist.com

European Space Agency predicts a dramatic crash landing for satellite on Earth

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A European satellite that is malfunctioning is expected to fall to Earth and plunge uncontrollably through the atmosphere on Wednesday.

The European Space Agency said that most of the dead satellite is anticipated to burn up in the atmosphere and any surviving debris is unlikely to cause harm. However, it is challenging to determine the exact time and location of the spacecraft’s fall.

According to the Latest blog posts, the space agency estimated that the re-entry time will be around 10:41 a.m. ET on Wednesday, which would take approximately two hours. Based on the satellite’s orbit, the spacecraft was expected to be somewhere off the coast of North America in the Pacific Ocean during that period.

The space agency explained that much of the uncertainty about the re-entry of satellites is due to the challenge of predicting atmospheric density. Changes in air density, influenced by solar activity, impact the drag experienced by objects passing through Earth’s atmosphere.

The space agency stated that although there is uncertainty about the re-entry point of the dead satellite, it is unlikely to pose a threat to populated areas.

“Most of the satellites will burn out, and the surviving debris will be scattered somewhat randomly over a ground orbit averaging hundreds of kilometers long and tens of kilometers wide (this is why the risks involved are so great). “The reason for this is low),” said an expert from the agency’s Space Debris Countermeasures Office. I wrote it in a blog post.

The spacecraft, known as European Remote Sensing 2 or ERS-2, was an Earth observation satellite that collected data about Earth’s oceans, polar caps, and surface. The space agency said the satellite, launched in April 1995, was also used to monitor severe floods, earthquakes and other natural disasters in remote areas of the world.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

IMF Chief Predicts AI will Affect 40% of Jobs and Potentially Exacerbate Inequality

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According to the Director-General of the International Monetary Fund, artificial intelligence will impact 40% of jobs around the world, and countries need to build social safety nets to reduce the impact on vulnerable workers. “Very important.”

AI, a term that refers to computer systems capable of performing tasks typically associated with a level of human intelligence, is poised to significantly change the global economy, with a growing risk of disrupting developed economies.

Analysis by IMFThe last international financial institution says that around 60% of jobs in developed countries such as the US and UK are exposed to AI, and half of them could be adversely affected. But as AI improves performance, the technology could also help some humans become more productive, the report said.

According to the IMF, the safest jobs at risk are those that are “highly complementary” to AI, meaning that the technology supplements rather than completely replaces jobs. This includes roles that involve a high degree of responsibility and interaction with people, such as surgeons, lawyers, and judges.

High-risk jobs that are “low complementarity” (i.e., could be replaced by AI) include telemarketing or cold calls to solicit people to offer goods or services. According to the IMF, low-exposure occupations include dishwashers and performers.

According to the IMF, AI will account for 40% of job opportunities in emerging market countries (defined by the IMF as countries including China, Brazil, and India) and 26% in low-income countries, for a total of just under 40%.

Generative AI (a term used to describe technologies that can generate highly plausible text, images, and even audio from simple manual prompts) has emerged on the political agenda since the advent of tools such as ChatGPT chatbots.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the ability of AI to impact high-skilled jobs means developed countries face greater risks from the technology. She added that in extreme cases, jobs could be lost in some major economies.

“About half of the exposed jobs could benefit from AI integration and increase productivity,” Georgieva said in a blog post accompanying the IMF study. “For the other half, AI applications could perform key tasks currently performed by humans, which could reduce demand for labor and lead to lower wages and fewer jobs. In extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear.”

He added that in most scenarios, AI would likely exacerbate inequality across the global economy and could cause social tensions without political intervention. AI is expected to be high on the agenda at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, where top technology industry leaders are expected to attend.

“It is important for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and provide retraining programs for vulnerable workers,” Georgieva said. “Doing so can make the transition to AI more inclusive, protect livelihoods, and limit inequality.”

According to the IMF's analysis, high-wage workers in jobs that are highly complementary to AI can expect to see higher incomes, which could lead to higher inequality.

“This will further widen income and wealth inequality resulting from higher returns to capital accruing to high-income earners,” the IMF report said. “Countries' choices regarding fiscal policy, including the definition of AI property rights and redistribution, will ultimately shape the impact on the distribution of income and wealth.”

The report found that the UK workforce, with a high proportion of university graduates, is under no obligation to do so, although older workers may struggle to adapt to new jobs, move on to new jobs or retrain. They say they may be ready to switch from a job that risks leaving them to a job that is “highly complementary.”

Last year, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said the occupations most at risk from AI automation are high-skilled occupations, which account for about 27% of all agency jobs. 38 member countriesThis includes the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, United States, Australia, and Canada. He said skilled professions such as law, medicine and finance are most at risk.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Post Office Memo from 25 Years Ago Predicts Scandal: The Post Office Horizon Incident

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I
In any major scandal that has the power to monopolize national attention, there are always key moments when events could have been stopped in their tracks. But few early warnings were as prescient as his seven-page memo handed to postal workers 25 years ago.

During an acrimonious meeting at Newcastle Rugby Club in 1999, the memo set out a number of concerns raised by postmasters in the north-east of England who were trialling the now infamous Horizon accounting system. It had been. Problems such as account balances caused stress for some people, forcing them to work late into the night.

Shortly after these concerns were raised, the subpostmasters met again to discuss the potential severity of the problem.
“The hardship and trauma that some postmasters are experiencing has raised concerns about their health and mental well-being,” the meeting was informed.

“Some felt that unless something changed soon, tragedy was not far away. The software was of poor quality and was not intended to run such a large network. Ta.”

Warnings of potential tragedy come as the flawed software – later found to have the potential to cause false losses that were blamed on postal workers – is rolled out across the Post Office network. done before.

But from the moment of the fateful decision to press forward with this destiny, a disastrous combination of legal change, geopolitics, a catastrophic lack of political curiosity, and above all outright deception, ultimately led to Thousands of innocent workers were victimized and prosecuted, with devastating effects.

At least four people took their own lives this week, the week in which Westminster finally acknowledged that unprecedented mass exonerations were needed to right more than two decades of injustice. Sadly, it was too late for the dozens of postmasters who were wronged and died, including one who died.




Former Posts Minister Paul Scally announced an independent inquiry into the Horizon scandal in 2020. Photo: Bloomberg/Getty Images

Source: www.theguardian.com

Rocket Lab predicts that Electron will likely return to the skies by year-end

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Rocket LabHis Electron rocket will likely return to flight by the end of the year, but the work is not yet complete before the mission resumes, according to a new statement released Wednesday.

Rocket Lab announced it has received permission from the Federal Aviation Administration to resume Electron launches from its New Zealand launch facility, but that doesn’t mean regulators have given the green light. Rocket Lab must complete an investigation into the anomaly that led to the Sept. 19 mission failure and implement an FAA-approved accident investigation plan to ensure the problem is resolved.

“Rocket Lab is currently in the final stages of a thorough investigation into the root cause of the anomaly. This process includes examining an extensive fault tree to cover all potential causes of the anomaly and This includes completing a comprehensive test campaign for reproduction on the ground,” the company said in a statement.

Standard practice after a rocket launch failure is for a company-led accident investigation to be conducted under the supervision and approval of the FAA. Rocket Lab said a full review is expected to be completed “in the coming weeks.”

Rocket Lab has not said anything about the cause of the September failure that led to the loss of Capella Space’s synthetic aperture radar satellite. The problem occurred shortly after the second stage’s single-engine Rutherford engine ignited, approximately two and a half minutes after liftoff. Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said in a statement that given Electron’s flight history, “a failure would be a complex and extremely rare problem that has never occurred in any previous test or flight.” He just said he knew.

An anomaly occurred during Rocket Lab 41.cent Electron firing. Before the anomaly, the company had completed 20 consecutive orbital launches.

Source: techcrunch.com