After Spike’s Review: A Controversial New Book Argues for Persuading People to Increase Birth Rates

Stadium crowd

A large population can drive innovation and economies of scale

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After the Spikes

Dean Spears and Michael Geruso (Bodley Head (UK); Simon & Schuster (US))

Current estimates suggest that four-fifths of all humans who will ever be born have already come into existence. The global number of births peaked at 146 million in 2012 and has been on a decline ever since, indicating that the world population is set to peak and decrease by the 2080s.

This decrease won’t be gradual. Fertility rates are already below replacement level in several nations, including China and India, leading to a rapid decline in population as quickly as it rose. This new controversial book argues that the planet could hold fewer than two billion people in the coming centuries.

“There’s no scenario where individuals worldwide are likely to opt for fewer children than required to replace themselves, leading to a drastic population reduction,” assert economists Dean Spears and Michael Geruso in After the Spike: Risks of Global Depopulation and Cases for People.

You might consider this a positive development. Could it help alleviate pressing environmental challenges? Not according to the authors. They assert that while population size does hold significance, adjusting other factors, such as the speed of global warming, is even more critical. The chance to lessen our carbon footprint through population reduction has mostly passed.

Spears and Geruso highlight numerous advantages of a large population. More individuals can lead to greater innovation and economies of scale, making technologies like smartphones feasible. “The abundance of neighbors enhances our potential,” they state.

Thus, their perspective is not about reducing the global population but rather stabilizing it. The challenge lies in the fact that even with the right political determination, the path to achieve this is unclear.

As we become more affluent, we are increasingly hesitant to give up career and leisure opportunities for parenthood.

The authors contend that while some government strategies may yield short-term results, no country has sustainably altered long-term demographic trends. Consider China’s one-child policy—it is often credited with curtailing population growth but did it genuinely do so? Spears and Geruso present ambiguous data on China’s population in relation to its neighbors before, during, and after these policies were enacted, raising the question of discernible differences based on their observations.

Efforts to reverse the declining fertility rates have also faced failure, they argue. In Romania, after the ban on abortion in 1966, birth rates surged but soon declined again. Sweden’s approach has been to incentivize through subsidies for childcare, yet its fertility rates remain below replacement level.

Attempts to boost fertility with financial incentives are likely doomed to fail, according to Spears and Geruso. While some claim that they would have more children if financial means allowed, the reality is that as people gain wealth, the tendency to have fewer children increases.

The focus should be on addressing what individuals need to balance rather than simply financial capability, according to the authors. As affluence grows, there is a reluctance to sacrifice careers and leisure for childbearing. Even technological advancements are not expected to change this trajectory, they conclude.

This book presents an unwaveringly optimistic viewpoint regarding many issues, but it acknowledges the complexity of stabilizing population levels. It effectively demonstrates that dire predictions of widespread famine with population growth have proven incorrect and suggests long-term trends toward healthier, longer lives remain possible. “Fears of a depleted, overpopulated future are outdated,” they argue.

But is that truly the case? Spears and Geruso also emphasize that food prices play a key role in determining hunger levels, yet it’s worth noting that food prices are presently rising as a consequence of escalating climate change. For a substantial portion of the population, uncertainty persists regarding whether conditions will continue to improve.

This book is undoubtedly provocative and may not provide an easy read, as Spears and Geruso delve into their primary assertions. However, if you believe that understanding the impact of a declining population is simple, and if you consider it a positive trend, this book is essential reading.

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The Science of Revenge: A New Book Argues That Revenge is Addictive, Yet Fails to Persuade

Did the UK’s iconic Sycamore Gap Tree fall as an act of revenge?

vaughan/epa-fe/shutterstock

The Science of Revenge
James Kimmel Jr. (Harmony Books)

Few can easily embrace the desire for revenge, yet it’s undeniable that some of us are drawn to it.

From President Donald Trump’s advocacy against what he perceives as the “cancel culture” in social media, to the potential motivation behind the cutting down of the iconic British Sycamore Gap Tree, the concept of revenge certainly appears to be more influential than love as a force for change in the world. One might even ponder if it borders on an addiction.

James Kimmel Jr. is passionate about uncovering solutions. Convinced that if our world cannot become more compassionate, we must take action. His new book, The Science of Revenge: Understanding the World’s Most Fatal Addiction – and How to Overcome It, represents a culmination of his efforts over the past decade to delve deep into the neuroscience of revenge and its devastating costs.

One cannot overlook Kimmel’s impressive credentials as a psychiatry instructor at Yale University, where he leads research on motivation and behavioral control. As a former civil litigator who dealt with non-criminal disputes, he witnessed firsthand how the legal system can be manipulated to settle personal scores and punish perceived adversaries, particularly by those in positions of wealth and influence.

Kimmel gained insight into these impulses through his experiences. Growing up in rural Pennsylvania during the early 1980s, he faced bullying and had his family extorted. Their dogs were killed, and after an explosion involving their mailbox, a teenage Kimmel found himself grappling with these pressures, though he refrained from acting violently.

Nevertheless, he admits that his unresolved grievances led him to pursue a career in law—a “professional revenge business.” Following a mental breakdown, he began to study what he refers to as “revenge addiction,” ultimately shifting his focus toward psychiatric treatment.

Today, Kimmel identifies as a “recovering revenge addict” and a determined researcher aiming to present a case for viewing “obsessive revenge” as both an addiction and a neurological disorder.

Kimmel posits that the desire for revenge is experienced in some brains similarly to the effects of drugs.

He argues that such cravings activate the brain’s reward pathways, blunting impulse control and acting as a biological response akin to pain relief and pleasure. This notion not only clarifies the “urge to retaliate” but also implies a possible method to mitigate violence. By identifying individuals who often feel victimized, professionals may preemptively address grievances, potentially curbing mass shootings and other tragic acts of violence.

To substantiate his assertions, Kimmel references numerous studies on reward, revenge, and forgiveness. He takes an insightful approach toward their limitations and addresses skepticism from experts.

However, his interpretation of revenge as a catalyst for “all wars, murders, and assaults throughout human history” could polarize readers and spark debate.

Kimmel acknowledges the role of “genetic predispositions, early traumas, or psychosocial factors,” asserting that revenge addiction shouldn’t excuse violent behaviors. Yet, this notion can mistakenly arise, particularly when he compares a potentially lethal “yearning for revenge” to the seriousness of heart attacks.

This perspective may be perplexing and insensitive. Kimmel is most compelling when recounting stories of individuals who have freed themselves from lives dominated by hatred. Yet, his fixation on revenge as the sole origin of evil tends to overlook the complexities of other contributing factors, such as misogyny and childhood abuse.

His analysis of the motivations behind the actions of mass murderers and historical figures like Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Mao Zedong feels overly simplistic when framed solely through the lens of revenge addiction. While revenge has undoubtedly appeared as a motivating force throughout history, Kimmel might be too close to his central theme to fully appreciate its multifaceted nature.

Elle Hunt is a writer based in Norwich, UK

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Justice Department argues in court filing that Google must sell Chrome to end search monopoly

U.S. prosecutors have told a judge that Alphabet Inc.’s Google should take steps to end its monopoly on Internet search by selling off its Chrome browser and sharing data and search results with competitors.

This would result in a decade of heightened regulation for Google, as ruled by a Washington federal court that found the company maintained an illegal monopoly on online search and related advertising.

Google currently controls about 90% of the online search market.

In a court filing, the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) stated, “Google’s illegal conduct not only deprived competitors of important distribution channels but also hindered their entry into these markets through new and innovative ways, eliminating potential distribution partners.”

The recently filed court papers further detail the U.S. government’s plan to break Google’s monopoly, which Google considers radical and harmful to American consumers and businesses.

Google intends to appeal the proposal.

The Justice Department’s demands include prohibiting Google from rejoining the browser market for five years and potentially requiring the sale of its Android mobile OS if competition is not restored through other means.

Additionally, the department seeks to prevent Google from acquiring or investing in search rivals, query-based artificial intelligence products, or advertising technology.

The Justice Department and a group of states have asked U.S. District Judge Amit to terminate Google’s exclusive contracts paying Apple and other device vendors to make its search engine the default option on tablets and smartphones.

Google will have an opportunity to present its counterproposal in December, with a trial scheduled for April, subject to potential interference by President-elect Donald Trump and the Justice Department’s incoming antitrust chief.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Archaeologist argues that Bronze Age town of Arnata exemplifies ‘slow urbanism’

During the Bronze Age, northwestern Arabia, the region between Mecca and Aqaba, was home to interconnected city walls centered around small fortified cities, such as the recently discovered town of al-Nata in the Khyber Oasis in the Medina province of Saudi Arabia. There were oases dotted around the area.

3D virtual reconstruction of the Bronze Age town of Arnatar. Image credit: Charloux others., doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309963 / AFALULA-RCU-CNRS.

The development of metropolitan settlements was a major step in the evolution of human civilization.

This urbanization process can be difficult to study in northwestern Arabia, in part due to the region's lack of well-preserved archaeological sites compared to better-understood regions such as the Levant and Mesopotamia. I understand.

However, excavations in recent decades have uncovered exceptional ruins that provide insight into the early stages of urbanization in northwest Arabia.

In a new study, CNRS archaeologist Guillaume Charroux and colleagues focused on the Bronze Age town of Al Nataa, which was inhabited from around 2400 to 1500 BC.

The town is approximately 1.5 hectares in area and includes a central area and nearby residential areas surrounded by a protective wall.

According to researchers, about 500 people lived in Arnata.

Although similar in size and composition to other sites of similar age in northwest Arabia, these sites are smaller and less sociopolitically complex than modern sites in the Levant and Mesopotamia.

Scientists suggest that Al Nata represents a state of “hypo-urbanization”, a transition period between nomadic pastoralism and complex urban settlement.

Archaeological evidence so far indicates that small fortified cities dotted northwestern Arabia during the Early to Middle Bronze Age, a period when other regions were showing later stages of urbanization.

Further excavations throughout Arabia will provide more detailed information about the timing of this transition and the changes in social structure and architecture that accompanied it.

“Archaeologists have discovered the first small Bronze Age town (c. 2400-1300 BC) in northwest Arabia connected to an extensive network of walls, raising questions about the early development of local urban planning,” the authors said.

Their paper was published in the online journal PLoS ONE on October 30, 2024.

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G. Charroux others. 2024. Bronze Age towns in the walled oasis of Khyber: A discussion of early urbanization in northwestern Arabia. PLoS ONE 19 (10): e0309963;doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309963

Source: www.sci.news

TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, argues that the US’s alleged discrimination against the popular app is unconstitutional

ByteDance, a Chinese tech company, has filed new legal documents challenging the US government’s “unconstitutional discrimination against TikTok.” These documents also reveal details about failed negotiations regarding a ban on the platform.

A legislation signed by President Joe Biden in April requires ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. assets by Jan. 19 or face a ban. ByteDance argues in its filing that such a sale is “technically, commercially, and legally impossible.” The company accuses the US government of not taking settlement negotiations seriously after 2022.

TikTok, in a lawsuit, states, “Never before has Congress silenced so much speech with a single act.”

The proposed ban reflects long-standing national security concerns from US lawmakers who fear China could exploit the app to access Americans’ data or spy on them. While the Biden administration prefers ByteDance to sell TikTok instead of an outright ban, the company claims it’s not a viable option.

The bill would prevent app stores like Apple and Google from featuring the app unless ByteDance sells it. It would also prohibit internet hosting services from supporting TikTok without a sale, effectively banning its use in the US.

In its filing, ByteDance’s lawyers outline the company’s negotiations with the US government, which abruptly ended in August 2022. The company also shared a redacted draft national security agreement aimed at protecting TikTok’s US user data.


The proposed agreement includes a “kill switch” for the US government to halt TikTok’s use in the US if it doesn’t comply. The US has also requested TikTok to move its source code out of China.

TikTok’s lawyers criticized the administration for favoring shutting down TikTok in the US instead of working on a practical solution to protect US users. The Justice Department defended the law, saying it addresses national security concerns while respecting constitutional constraints.

TikTok and ByteDance filed a lawsuit in the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on Sept. 16. The outcome of the case could influence the government’s use of new powers against foreign-owned apps.

TikTok argues that separating businesses is not feasible and claims the law violates free speech rights. The platform’s content creators maintain that there is no imminent national security threat, as the law allows TikTok to operate for the remainder of the year.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Kenan Malik argues that Elon Musk and OpenAI are fostering existential dread to evade regulation

IIn 1914, on the eve of World War I, H.G. Wells published a novel about the possibility of an even bigger conflagration. liberated world Thirty years before the Manhattan Project, “humankind'' [to] Carry around enough potential energy in your handbag to destroy half a city. ” A global war breaks out, precipitating a nuclear apocalypse. To achieve peace, it is necessary to establish a world government.

Wells was concerned not just with the dangers of new technology, but also with the dangers of democracy. Wells's world government was not created by democratic will, but was imposed as a benign dictatorship. “The ruled will show their consent by silence,” King Ecbert of England says menacingly. For Wells, “common man” means “Violent idiots in social issues and public affairs”. Only an educated, scientifically-minded elite can “save democracy from itself.”

A century later, another technology inspires similar awe and fear: artificial intelligence. From Silicon Valley boardrooms to the backrooms of Davos, political leaders, technology moguls, and academics are exulting in the immense benefits of AI, but they are also concerned about its potential. ing. announce the end of humanity When super-intelligent machines come to rule the world. And, as a century ago, questions of democracy and social control are at the heart of the debate.

In 2015, journalist Stephen Levy Interview with Elon Musk and Sam Altmanthe two founders of OpenAI, a technology company that gained public attention two years ago with the release of ChatGPT, a seemingly human-like chatbot. Fearful of the potential impact of AI, Silicon Valley moguls founded the company as a nonprofit charitable trust with the goal of developing technology in an ethical manner to benefit “all of humanity.”

Levy asked Musk and Altman about the future of AI. “There are two schools of thought,” Musk mused. “Do you want a lot of AI or a few? I think more is probably better.”

“If I used it on Dr. Evil, wouldn't it give me powers?” Levy asked. Altman responded that Dr. Evil is more likely to be empowered if only a few people control the technology, saying, “In that case, we'd be in a really bad situation.” Ta.

In reality, that “bad place” is being built by the technology companies themselves. Musk resigned from OpenAI's board six years ago and is developing his own AI project, but he is now accused of prioritizing profit over public interest and neglecting to develop AI “for the benefit of humanity.” He is suing his former company for breach of contract.

In 2019, OpenAI created a commercial subsidiary to raise money from investors, particularly Microsoft. When he released ChatGPT in 2022, the inner workings of the model were hidden. I didn't need to be too open about it, Ilya SatskevaOne of OpenAI's founders, who was the company's chief scientist at the time, responded to criticism by claiming that it would prevent malicious actors from using it to “cause significant damage.” Fear of technology became a cover for creating a shield from surveillance.

In response to Musk's lawsuit, OpenAI released a series of documents last week. Emails between Mr. Musk and other members of the board of directors. All of this makes it clear that all board members agreed from the beginning that OpenAI could never actually be open.

As AI develops, Sutskever wrote to Musk: The “open” in openAI means that everyone should benefit from the results of AI once it is developed. [sic] It's built, but it's totally fine if you don't share the science. ” “Yes,” Musk replied. Regardless of the nature of the lawsuit, Musk, like other tech industry moguls, has not been as open-minded. The legal challenges to OpenAI are more a power struggle within Silicon Valley than an attempt at accountability.

Wells wrote liberated world At a time of great political turmoil, when many people were questioning the wisdom of extending suffrage to the working class.

“Was that what you wanted, and was it safe to leave it to you?” [the masses],” Fabian Beatrice Webb wondered., “The ballot box that creates and controls the British government with its vast wealth and far-flung territories”? This was the question at the heart of Wells's novel: Who can one entrust their future to?

A century later, we are once again engaged in heated debates about the virtues of democracy. For some, the political turmoil of recent years is a product of democratic overreach, the result of allowing irrational and uneducated people to make important decisions. “It's unfair to put the responsibility of making a very complex and sophisticated historical decision on an unqualified simpleton.” Richard Dawkins said: After the Brexit referendum, Mr Wells would have agreed with that view.

Others say that such contempt for ordinary people is what contributes to the flaws in democracy, where large sections of the population feel deprived of a say in how society is run. .

It's a disdain that also affects discussions about technology.like the world is liberated, The AI ​​debate focuses not only on technology, but also on questions of openness and control. Alarmingly enough, we are far from being “superintelligent” machines. Today's AI models, such as ChatGPT, or claude 3, released last week by another AI company, Anthropic, is so good at predicting what the next word in a sequence is that it makes us believe we can have human-like conversations. You can cheat. However, they are not intelligent in the human sense. Negligible understanding of the real world And I'm not trying to destroy humanity.

The problems posed by AI are not existential, but social.from Algorithm bias to surveillance societyfrom Disinformation and censorship to copyright theftOur concern is not that machines might someday exercise power over humans, but that machines already function in ways that reinforce inequalities and injustices, and that those in power strengthen their own authority. It should be about providing tools for

That's why what we might call “Operation Ecbert,” the argument that some technologies are so dangerous that they must be controlled by a select few over democratic pressure, It's very threatening. The problem isn't just Dr. Evil, it's the people who use fear of Dr. Evil to protect themselves from surveillance.

Kenan Malik is a columnist for the Observer

Source: www.theguardian.com