Tag Archives: tropical

Intense Heat Leads to Significant Decline in Tropical Bird Populations

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The black-throated trogon of the Amazon is rapidly declining

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Several bird populations have seen declines of up to 90% in tropical regions like the Amazon and Panama, even in areas of the rainforest that remain largely untouched . Current research indicates that extreme heat is likely the primary factor driving these declines.

From 1950 to 2020, intense heatwaves led to a 25-38% decrease in bird populations inhabiting these biodiverse tropical regions, as reported by Maximilian Cotts and his team from Barcelona’s Super Computing Center.

The researchers have yet to utilize these findings to forecast future bird population trends as global temperatures continue to rise, but early indicators are concerning. “The situation looks grim,” Cotts remarks.

He and his team have initiated a comprehensive analysis of global bird populations using the Living Planet Database. This dataset, however, does not include seabirds. Additional data on habitat destruction was sourced from the Hyde database for global environments, along with historical weather and climate data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

The researchers compared this information to identify correlations that could shed light on the observed changes in bird populations. Their findings suggest that habitat loss is a significant driver of decline, corroborating earlier studies, particularly in regions with latitudes between 21° and 43° north or south.

In contrast, extreme heat is the predominant factor affecting bird survival in tropical areas, where many species often exist at the edge of their heat tolerance limits. If these limits are exceeded, they risk mortality , explains Kotz. Even if they manage to survive an intense heat episode, their health is typically compromised, diminishing their reproductive success.

The team is also analyzing how the exacerbation of extreme heat is attributable to anthropogenic climate change, and how bird populations would behave in a scenario without warming. This approach enables researchers to gauge the impact of climate change on bird abundance.

Although such attribution studies have been traditionally employed to assess extreme weather events related to climate change, Kotz notes that this is the first instance of applying this methodology to evaluate ecological repercussions.

There remains a significant lack of data regarding bird population trends, particularly in tropical regions. Kotz acknowledges this deficiency but believes there is enough evidence to draw meaningful conclusions. He cautions that insufficient data in these areas may lead to an underestimation of the impacts.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Research: Triassic Reptiles May Have Migrated Across Unfavored Tropical Regions

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Paleontologists employing a novel method of geographic analysis have theorized about the dispersion of paleo-ausauromorphs following the Permian mass extinction, one of the most significant climate events in Earth’s history.

Benggwigingasuchus erimicarminis Pansarassan Ocean Coast. Image credit: Jorge Gonzalez.

The earliest pale aurauromorphs, akin to contemporary reptiles, are perceived by many synthetic biologists as existing in dead zones, believed to thrive only in select regions due to extreme heat prevalent in tropical zones.

In a recent study, paleontologist Joseph Flannery Sutherland from the University of Birmingham, along with his team, uncovered clues on how these reptiles traversed the globe during the Triassic period.

The researchers employed a novel modeling technique grounded in landscape reconstruction and evolutionary phylogenies.

Having survived the extinction event, Archosauromorphs became a crucial component of the Triassic Earth’s ecosystem, paving the way for the emergence of dinosaurs.

Current research indicates their later success can be attributed to their ability to traverse up to 16,000 km (10,000 miles) across tropical dead zones to explore new ecosystems.

“Despite being among the direst climatic events in Earth’s timeline, resulting in the death of more species than in any other epoch, life persisted,” remarked Dr. Flannery Sasherland.

“The group of Archosauromorphs emerged from this event and became key players in shaping life thereafter.”

“The gaps in their fossil records are beginning to reveal insights into aspects of these reptiles we previously overlooked.”

“By utilizing the modeling system, we created images representing the condition of Archosauromorphs amid these gaps and their dispersal across the ancient landscape.”

“This research examined topography and routes mapped through both spatial and temporal dimensions, which we have coined as our ‘Tardis’ approach.”

“Our findings suggest these reptiles exhibit remarkable resilience to the extreme climates of the Panguian tropical dead zone, enabling them to endure these harsh conditions and reach distant regions.”

“This capacity to thrive in inhospitable tropical environments likely gave them the edge necessary to prosper in the Triassic landscape.”

“While life has often been dictated by environmental factors, integrating the limited and uncertain knowledge of ancient terrains with the incomplete understanding of extinct species is challenging,” stated Professor Michael Benton from the University of Bristol.

“However, combining fossil data with reconstructed maps of the ancient world offers a means to address these challenges within the context of evolutionary trees.”

Study published in the journal Natural Ecology and Evolution.

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JT Flannery-Sutherland et al. The phylogeny, described as a landscape, illuminates the ecological radiation of early paleoasauromorph reptiles. Nat Ecol Evol Published online on June 11th, 2025. doi:10.1038/s41559-025-02739-y

Source: www.sci.news

Tropical Forest Losses Soared in 2024 Amidst Surge in Wildfires

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Forests have been cleared for mining in the Brazilian Amazon

Marcio Isensee e Sá/Getty Images

In 2024, the loss of tropical forests reached unprecedented levels, doubling the rate seen in the last two decades, primarily due to climate change making rainforests more vulnerable to uncontrollable fires.

A comprehensive annual analysis of satellite imagery conducted by Global Forest Watch and the University of Maryland revealed a staggering loss of 67,000 square kilometers of crucial tropical rainforests in 2024. Primeval forests, defined as mature woodlands that have not been subjected to logging, were particularly affected.

The report’s author indicated that the dramatic increase in forest loss can be largely attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon alongside global warming, which has exacerbated conditions leading to catastrophic fires in rainforests.

“We don’t just have agricultural activities as the main cause of deforestation,” stated Rod Taylor from Global Forest Watch, an initiative of the World Resources Institute. “This new amplification effect constitutes a genuine climate change feedback loop, with fires becoming increasingly intense and destructive.”

Tropical forests play a vital role in regulating weather patterns, sequestering carbon, and cooling the planet. However, recent trends in deforestation have led to them releasing more carbon than they absorb, pushing them toward a critical tipping point.

The report also reveals that the area affected by wildfires in native forests during 2023 was five times greater than the losses registered in 2023, constituting 48% of all primary rainforest losses.

Globally, wildfires emitted greenhouse gases equivalent to 4.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide last year, significantly more than the total emissions from air travel in 2023.

Associated with warm and dry weather conditions in the tropics, the El Niño phenomenon officially ended in April 2024 but left lasting effects as rainforest soil and vegetation remained parched from earlier wildfires.

The context of global warming also played a significant role, making 2024 the driest year in Brazil in 70 years, as noted by Ane Alencar from the Amazon Environmental Research Institute in Belem, Brazil.

Brazil witnessed a loss of 28,000 square kilometers of its primary forest, the highest figure since 2016, accounting for 42% of all tropical native forest losses.

Fires in the Brazilian Amazon were responsible for 60% of the overall forest loss, as individuals exploited the dry conditions to clear land for agricultural purposes.

Elsewhere, countries such as Canada and Russia also reported significant wildfires beyond the tropical regions, contributing to a global forest loss of 300,000 square kilometers, a new record.

“Some experts argue that we are currently in a pyrocene, or age of fire, as opposed to the Anthropocene,” noted Erika Berenguer from Oxford University.

While bushfires pose a serious threat, Berenguer cautioned that the statistics might include degradation, where some trees were lost without complete deforestation, the latter being the total clearance of forests.

“Degradation diminishes carbon storage, undermines biodiversity, and increases susceptibility to future fires, but it’s not equivalent to transforming land into soy fields or pastures,” she explained.

The report highlights how ongoing degradation and a warming climate have rendered rainforests increasingly vulnerable, according to Alencar.

“Typically, if a fire breaks out in the Amazon, you can witness some degradation, but the forest has the potential to recover,” she stated. “However, this report indicates that during extreme droughts, forests can burn intensely, fostering conditions that may lead to complete loss of the forest.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Paleontologists Discover First Fossils of Extant Tropical Tree Species

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Fossils of the giant rainforest tree Dryobalanops rappa have been found in Brunei (officially known as Brunei Darussalam), an island nation in Borneo. This discovery marks the first fossil evidence of a living, endangered tropical tree species, opening up new avenues for fossil research and underscoring the importance of Southeast Asian heritage and its preservation.

Leaf architecture from living (C, D, FH) compared to fossils (A, B, E) of Dryobalanops. Image credit: Wang et al, doi: 10.1002/ajb2.70036.

Locally referred to as Kapur Paya, Dryobalanops rappa is a tall tree species that exists today but is threatened with extinction in Borneo’s carbon-rich peatlands, including Brunei.

Fossil leaves estimated to be 2 million years old were uncovered in Kampong Rugh within the Chuton district of Brunei.

“This discovery provides a unique glimpse into the ancient history of Asian tropical wet forests,” noted researchers from Pennsylvania.

“We now have fossil evidence that this remarkable tree species has been integral to Borneo’s forests for millions of years, emphasizing its ecological significance and the urgency to protect its remaining habitats.”

According to Professor Peter Wilf of Pennsylvania, “Fossil records of wet tropical forests in Asia have been surprisingly limited compared to those in the Amazon and Africa.”

Paleontologists identified these fossils by examining the microscopic features of the preserved leaf cuticles, down to the cellular level of Dryobalanops rappa.

“Our findings underscore that these forests are not only thriving with biodiversity today but are also home to iconic tree species that have existed for millions of years,” Wang stated.

“Conservation efforts should not only focus on current species but also aim to preserve the ecological legacy that has endured over millennia.”

“The dominant tree family in Asian rainforests, the bi-pterocarps, plays a crucial role in carbon storage and biodiversity,” the researchers highlighted.

“However, these trees face increasing threats from deforestation and habitat loss.”

“By unveiling the deep historical roots of these trees, this discovery offers a fresh perspective on conservation strategies,” Wang added.

“These findings add a new dimension to conservation, as we strive to protect not only modern species but also ancient survivors that are pivotal to our ecosystem,” Wang concluded.

“This historical context makes both the endangered tree species and their habitats even more critical for conservation efforts.”

“Our research demonstrates how fossil evidence can inform conservation strategies for endangered species and ecosystems, grounded in their historical importance,” Professor Wilf remarked.

“Understanding the history of tropical forests is vital for conservation, especially as numerous key species face rapid decline.” Professor Wilf emphasized.

“Our discovery lays an essential historical foundation for the conservation of keystone trees in tropical Asia, particularly the rapidly diminishing bi-ptery species.”

Details of these findings are documented in a paper published in the American Journal of Botany.

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Teng-Xiang Wang et al. Fossils of the endemic giant dual-pterocarp species open a historic portal into Borneo’s disappearing rainforest. American Journal of Botany, published online on May 8, 2025. doi:10.1002/ajb2.70036

Source: www.sci.news

Tropical ecosystems rebounded more quickly than anticipated following Permian extinction

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Tropical riverbank ecosystems – what can be seen along rivers and wetlands – have now recovered within just two million years of North China's extinction. Terrestrial ecosystem.

An illustration depicting the beginning of the mass extinction of the Endopermians. Image credits: Dawid Adam Iurino/Paleofactory, Sapienza Rome University of Rome/Jurikova et aldoi: 10.1038/s41561-020-00646-4.

The mass extinction of the Endopermians occurred about 252 million years ago, and due to extreme environmental changes such as global warming, ocean acidification and long-term drought, more than 80% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial species. I've cleared up all of that.

Dr. Li Tian, ​​a researcher at the China University of Earth Sciences, said:

“It has long been theorized that low-latitude land areas remained uninhabited for a long period of time, 7-10 million years after extinction, but our results suggest that some ecosystems have previously been considered. It suggests it's more adaptable than it was.”

To reconstruct the timeline of ecosystem recovery on the land, Dr. Tian and colleagues analyzed trace fossils (such as burrows and footprints), plant relics, plant relics, and vertebrate fossils . 247 million years ago.

These fossils were obtained from lake and river deposits in central central China.

Researchers used a combination of techniques such as biostratigraphy, biology (studying microfossils), sedimentology, and geochemical analysis.

Their research suggests harsh environments at the beginning of the early Triassic period, with only sparse and simple living remaining.

Fossils of this era represent monospecific communities. This means that there is little evidence of biodiversity, and only a single type of organism dominates.

Fossils showed a significant decrease in biological size compared to before the end of Permian, a common indicator of extreme environmental stress.

However, fossils from the Spacyan stage (approximately 249 million years ago) show increased plant stems, root traces, and signs of piercing activity, suggesting a more stable and structured environment .

Scientists also discovered fossils of medium-sized carnivorous vertebrates, indicating that a multi-level food web was established at this stage.

The revival of the action that dug a hole that was largely vanished after the events of extinction was a significant discovery.

Hole-digging behavior promotes sediment and plays an important role in cycling nutrients in riverbank ecosystems, suggesting that animals adapted to environmental stress by escaping underground during this period. Masu.

The findings challenge the view that ecosystem recovery on post-extinction lands is far behind marine life, and that some ecosystems are already stable within relatively short geological time frames. It is revealed.

“Our research is the first to suggest that, contrary to past assumptions, life in the tropical House of Representatives' riparian ecosystems has recovered relatively quickly after the mass extinction of Permians,” said Jinnan. Dr. Tong also spoke from China's University of Earth Sciences.

“The fossil records we studied suggest that riparian zones played an important role in stabilizing post-extinction ecosystems.”

“The rivers and wetlands served as shelters, providing more stable conditions and more stable conditions, allowing life to rebound faster than in arid inland areas.”

Team's paper Published online in the journal Elif.

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Wenwei Guo et al. 2025. Following the mass extinction of Permians, rapid recovery of riparian ecosystems in the hypoxic environment of northern China. Elif 14: RP104205; doi: 10.7554/Elife.104205.1

Source: www.sci.news

Unexpected forms of gamma-ray emissions observed in tropical thunderstorms

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Thunderclouds include more than just rain and lightning. In addition to visible light radiation, thunderclouds can produce powerful bursts of gamma rays that last one millionth of a second. Clouds can also glow steadily with gamma rays for seconds to minutes at a time. Using a battery of detectors onboard NASA’s ER-2 research aircraft, scientists have discovered a new type of gamma-ray radiation whose duration is shorter than steady light but longer than microsecond bursts. They call it a flickering gamma ray flash.

NASA’s high-flying ER-2 plane is equipped with the Fly’s Eye Stationary Lightning Mapper Simulator, which records gamma rays (purple in the illustration) from thunderclouds, and instruments in this artist’s impression of the Airborne Lightning Observatory for the Ground Gamma Ray Flash (ALOFT) mission. is installed. Image credit: NASA/ALOFT team.

Previous studies have reported two types of gamma-ray emissions from thunderclouds. One is a high-intensity burst known as a terrestrial gamma-ray flash, and the other is a moderate-intensity, long-duration gamma-ray glow.

However, the characteristics of these emissions and how they are produced are not completely understood.

Researchers used data collected by the aircraft during 10 flights in July 2023 to investigate gamma-ray emissions that occurred during marine and coastal thunderstorms in the Caribbean and Central America.

“The ER-2 aircraft will be the ultimate platform for observing gamma rays from thunderclouds,” said Professor Nikolai Ostgaard of the University of Bergen.

“Flying at 20 km (12.4 miles) allows us to fly directly above the clouds, as close as possible to the gamma-ray source.”

“There’s a lot more going on in thunderstorms than we imagined,” added Professor Steve Comer of Duke University.

“At the end of the day, basically all large thunderstorms produce gamma rays in different forms throughout the day.”

“Several aircraft operations have attempted to determine whether these phenomena are common, but results have been mixed, and some operations over the United States have not found gamma rays at all.”

“This project was designed to answer these questions once and for all.”

Professor Ostgaard, Professor Comer and their colleagues. identified Another type of gamma-ray radiation, called flicker gamma-ray flashes, consists of pulses of longer duration than terrestrial gamma-ray flashes.

A total of 24 flickering gamma-ray flashes were observed as the spacecraft passed over gamma-ray thunderclouds on five of its 10 flights. Seventeen of these flickering gamma-ray flashes resulted in lightning.

The researchers suggested that flickering gamma-ray flashes, which can begin as the emission of gamma rays and then suddenly increase in intensity into a series of pulses, may also be involved in the formation of lightning. are.

Because flickering gamma-ray flashes share similar characteristics with gamma-ray glows and terrestrial gamma-ray flashes, they propose that flickering gamma-ray flashes could provide evidence of a link between the two phenomena.

In another study, Dr. Martino Marisardi from the University of Bergen and colleagues investigated Characteristics of gamma ray glow detected by aircraft.

These included thundercloud systems covering an area of ​​more than 9,000 km.2 Luminescence was observed for at least 3 hours.

They found that the emission was general and not uniform across the emission region.

During nine of the 10 flights, more than 500 individual gamma-ray glows were observed across the study area, each lasting between 1 and 10 seconds.

These findings contradict the results of previous studies that reported that the gamma-ray glow can last up to several hundred seconds and is emitted uniformly over a range of up to 20 km.

Taken together, these findings improve our understanding of gamma-ray emissions from thunderclouds and suggest a causal relationship between glows and flashes and the possible role of these emissions in the subsequent development of lightning.

“These two new forms of gamma rays are what I find most interesting,” Professor Comer said.

“They don’t seem to be related to the occurrence of lightning. They somehow appear naturally.”

“There are hints in the data that they may actually be related to the process that causes lightning, but it’s still a mystery to scientists.”

The results are published in two papers: journal nature.

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N. Ostgard others. 2024. Gamma ray flashing, the missing link between gamma rays and TGF. nature 634, 53-56; doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07893-0

M. Marisardi others. 2024. Highly dynamic gamma-ray emissions are common in tropical thunderclouds. nature 634, 57-60; doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07936-6

Source: www.sci.news

Research reveals new connection between Saharan dust and tropical cyclone precipitation

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Huge Saharan dust plumes carried across the Atlantic by trade winds could influence weather in North America by suppressing the development of hurricanes at sea, but the thick dust plumes could also bring heavy rainfall from storms coming onshore, according to a new study.

Vermilion othersThey found a nonlinear, boomerang-shaped relationship between Saharan dust and tropical cyclone rainfall. Image courtesy of Enrique.

“Surprisingly, the main driver of hurricane precipitation is not sea surface temperature or atmospheric moisture, as previously thought, but rather Saharan dust,” said Dr Yuan Wang of Stanford University.

Previous studies have found that human-induced climate change could dramatically reduce Saharan dust transport and increase hurricane rainfall in the coming decades.

But uncertainties remain about questions such as how climate change will affect dust runoff from the Sahara and how much more rainfall from future hurricanes is expected to occur.

“Hurricanes are among the most destructive weather phenomena on Earth,” Dr Wang said.

“Even relatively weak hurricanes can cause heavy rainfall and flooding hundreds of miles inland.”

“I think dust hasn't received enough attention right now in traditional weather forecasting, especially hurricane forecasting.”

Dust can have opposing effects on tropical cyclones, which are classified as hurricanes in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific when their maximum sustained winds reach 74 miles per hour or greater.

“The dust particles can make ice clouds more efficient in the centre of the hurricane, potentially resulting in more precipitation,” Dr Wang said.

“Dust can also block solar radiation, lowering sea surface temperatures near the center of a storm and weakening tropical cyclones.”

Dr. Wang and his colleagues set out to first develop a machine learning model that could predict hurricane rainfall, and then to identify the underlying mathematical and physical relationships.

They used 19 years of weather data and hourly satellite precipitation measurements to predict the amount of rainfall from individual hurricanes.

Their findings suggest that a key predictor of rainfall is measuring dust optical thickness, or the amount of light that penetrates the dust plume.

They found a boomerang-shaped relationship in which precipitation increases between dust optical thicknesses of 0.03 and 0.06, then decreases rapidly.

In other words, at higher concentrations, dust goes from enhancing to suppressing rainfall.

“Usually, when the dust loading is low, the microphysical enhancement effect is more pronounced,” Dr Wang said.

“If the dust loading is high, it can shade the ocean surface from sunlight more efficiently, and the so-called 'radiative suppression effect' will dominate.”

a paper A paper describing the findings was published in the journal. Scientific advances.

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Lyin Chew others2024. The primary role of Saharan dust on tropical cyclone rainfall in the Atlantic Basin. Scientific advances 10(30); doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adn6106

This article is a version of a press release provided by Stanford University.

Source: www.sci.news

Water ice deposits found on tropical Mars volcanoes

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Using high-resolution color images from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Trace Gases Orbiter (TGO) and Mars Express missions, planetary researchers have found evidence of morning frost deposits in the calderas of the Tharsis volcanoes on Mars (Olympus Mons, Arsia Mons, Ascleius Mons and Ceraunius Turus).

This image, taken with the High Resolution Stereo Camera on ESA’s Mars Express spacecraft, shows Olympus Mons, the tallest volcano not only on Mars but in the entire Solar System. Image credit: ESA / DLR / Free University Berlin.

The Tharsis region of Mars contains numerous volcanoes, including Olympus Mons and the Tharsis Mountains (Ascraeus Mons, Pavonis Mons, and Arsia Mons).

Many of these volcanoes are enormous, towering above the surrounding plains at heights between one (Mont Pavonis) and three times (Mont Olympus) higher than Earth’s Mount Everest.

At the summit of these volcanoes are large cavities called calderas, which were formed when magma chambers were emptied during past eruptions.

“We thought it would be impossible for frost to form near the equator on Mars because of the relatively high temperatures both on the surface and on mountain tops, caused by a combination of sunlight and a thin atmosphere. On Earth, we would expect frost to form on mountain tops, but that would not be the case near the equator on Mars,” said Dr. Adomas Valantinas, a postdoctoral researcher at Brown University.

“Its presence here is intriguing and suggests that there are exceptional processes at work that allow frost to form.”

The frost patches appear for a few hours before and after sunrise, then evaporate in the sunlight.

Although it is thin, perhaps only one-hundredth of a millimeter thick (about the thickness of a human hair), it covers a vast area.

The amount of frost is equivalent to about 150,000 tonnes of water that moves between the earth’s surface and the atmosphere every day during the cold season, which is roughly the equivalent of filling about 60 Olympic swimming pools.

The researchers propose that air circulates in a special way above Tharsis, creating a unique microclimate within the volcano’s caldera there and allowing the frost patches to form.

“Winds move up the mountain slopes, carrying relatively moist air from close to the surface to higher altitudes, where it condenses and falls as frost,” said Dr Nicolas Thomas from the University of Bern, principal investigator of TGO’s Colour Stereo Surface Imaging System (CaSSIS).

“We actually see this happening on Earth and other parts of Mars, where the same phenomenon causes the seasonal elongated clouds on Mars’ Arsia Mons.”

“The frost we see on the summits of Martian volcanoes appears to have accumulated in the shadowed parts of the calderas, where temperatures are particularly cool.”

Scientists have found frost on the Tharsis volcanoes of Olympus, Arsia, Mount Ascraeus and Ceraunius Turus.

By modeling how these frosts form, scientists could potentially unlock more of Mars’ mysteries, like where any remaining water on Mars resides, how it moves between reservoirs, and even understanding the dynamics of the planet’s complex atmosphere.

This knowledge is essential for future exploration of Mars and the search for signs of extraterrestrial life.

“The discovery of water on the surface of Mars is always an exciting prospect, both for scientific interest and for its implications for human and robotic exploration,” said Dr Colin Wilson, ESA’s project scientist for both ExoMars TGO and Mars Express.

“Even so, this discovery is particularly intriguing because Mars’ low atmospheric pressure creates the unusual situation where Martian mountaintops are typically less cold than the plains. But moist air blowing up the mountain slopes can still condense into frost, a phenomenon that is clearly similar to Earth.”

“This discovery was made possible thanks to successful collaboration between ESA’s two Mars rovers, as well as additional modelling.”

“Understanding exactly which phenomena are the same and which are different on Earth and Mars will really test and improve our understanding of the fundamental processes occurring not only on our home planet but elsewhere in the universe.”

of Investigation result Published in the journal Nature Chemistry.

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A. Valantinus othersEvidence for episodic morning frost accumulation at the Tharsis volcano, Mars. National GeographyPublished online June 10, 2024; doi: 10.1038/s41561-024-01457-7

Source: www.sci.news

The impact of tropical cyclones on carbon costs

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A new study finds that accounting for the long-term effects of tropical cyclones increases the global social cost of carbon by more than 20%. This increase is due to the predicted increase in damage in major countries due to global warming. The study highlights that current estimates ignore these long-term economic effects and underestimate the true costs of climate change.

Extreme events like tropical cyclones have an immediate impact but have long-term effects on society. New research published in the journal Nature Communications. Considering the long-term effects of these storms, the global societal carbon cost will increase by more than 20 percent compared to estimates currently used in policy assessments. This increase is primarily due to the predicted increase in damage from tropical cyclones to the major economies of India, the United States, China, Taiwan, and Japan due to global warming.

“Our analysis shows that severe tropical cyclones have the power to slow a country’s economic development by more than a decade. Global warming is expected to increase the proportion of the most intense tropical cyclones. “This increases the likelihood that the economy will not be able to fully recover between storms,” ​​explains Hazem Krishen, author and scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) at the time of the survey. Therefore, long-term effects such as reduced economic growth caused by tropical cyclones can have an even greater negative impact on economic development than the direct economic damage caused by the storm.

The so-called social carbon cost is an estimate of the future cost to society in dollars of emitting an additional ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This important indicator is widely used in policy evaluation because it allows comparisons between the costs of climate change to society and the costs of climate mitigation measures. “However, the long-term effects of extreme events have not been taken into account so far, so current societal carbon cost estimates reflect only a portion of the real costs. The costs are probably even higher than currently estimated, which means that the benefits of climate mitigation are underestimated,” says co-author Franziska Piontek from PIK.

Hotter climate, more intense tropical cyclones, and rising costs

For the study, scientists analyzed the economic damage caused by these storms in 41 tropical cyclone-prone countries between 1981 and 2015 and made predictions about future global warming scenarios. did. In contrast to previous studies, these studies accounted for most of the long-term negative effects of these storms on economic development. The researchers found that these impacts increase the social cost of carbon by more than 20 percent globally (from US$173 to US$212 per tonne of carbon dioxide) and by 40 percent in the tropical cyclone-prone countries analyzed. I found that it has increased. Estimates of social carbon costs currently used in policy evaluations.

“When it comes to extreme events, the emphasis is on the immediate economic damage. However, these are important to inform society about the real costs of climate change and the climate impacts that can be avoided with effective climate action. It is equally important to better quantify the overall cost of events,” concludes study author Christian Otto of PIK.

Reference: “Social Costs of Tropical Cyclones” November 23, 2023 Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43114-4

Source: scitechdaily.com