This month, nine seismic observatories in Alaska are expected to lose power, leaving tsunami forecasters without essential data to assess whether an earthquake could generate destructive waves heading toward the West Coast.

These stations depended on federal support that lapsed last year, and the Trump administration declined to renew it this fall. Information from the observatories is vital for researchers studying the size and shape of earthquakes occurring along the Alaska subduction zone, a fault known for producing some of the globe’s most potent earthquakes, thereby endangering California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.

Michael West, director of the Alaska Earthquake Center, mentioned that the removal of the observatory could postpone the notification of a potential tsunami in Alaska’s coastal regions, with areas like Washington state potentially facing less precise forecasts.

“Statistically, the last tsunami in the United States originated from Alaska, and the next one will likely follow suit,” he stated.

This is yet another setback for the U.S. tsunami warning system, which has already been grappling with underfunding and staff shortages. Researchers are alarmed that the network might be on the verge of collapse.

“The entire tsunami warning system is regressing,” West said. “There are numerous issues at play.”

In the United States, there are two tsunami warning centers that operate continuously—one in Palmer, Alaska, and another in Honolulu. These centers provide forecasts that assist emergency managers in deciding if coastal evacuations are necessary after an earthquake. Data from Alaska’s seismic stations has historically been integral to the center’s operations.

Both centers are already experiencing staffing shortages; currently, only 11 of the 20 full-time positions at the Alaska center are filled, as reported by Tom Fahey, union legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization. Meanwhile, in Hawaii, four out of 16 positions remain vacant. (Fahey indicated both sites are looking to hire scientists.)

Furthermore, funding for the National Tsunami Hazard Reduction Program, which finances the majority of state tsunami risk reduction initiatives, has been slashed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In 2025, a mere $4 million was allocated—significantly less than the historic $6 million provided.

“You’re on life support,” West remarked regarding the program.

Additionally, due to probationary layoffs in February under the Trump administration, NOAA terminated Corinna Allen, director of the National Weather Service’s tsunami program, as reported by Washington state seismologist Harold Tobin. Allen, who had just recently joined the agency, refrained from commenting through a spokesperson for her new employer, the Washington State Department of Natural Resources.

These recent reductions coincide with the Trump administration’s broader strategy to cut federal spending, especially on science and climate research. NOAA enacted cuts in February, including hundreds of layoffs, reductions in weather balloon launches, and a halt to research on climate and weather disaster costs.

Most of the closed seismic stations in Alaska are located in isolated regions of the Aleutian Islands. West noted that this chain extends westward from the Alaska Peninsula towards Russia, following a subduction zone on the ocean floor. KHNS is Alaska’s public radio station, which first reported the news of the stations going offline.

A NOAA grant of approximately $300,000 annually had supported these stations. The Alaska Earthquake Center sought a new grant to continue operations through 2028 but was turned down, according to emails between West and NOAA officials examined by NBC News.

NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster stated that the federal agency ceased funding in 2024 under the Biden administration. Uma Bhatt, a professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and deputy director of the institute managing the grant, mentioned that the University of Alaska Fairbanks managed to raise funds in the spring to keep the program running for another year, anticipating that federal support would follow. Unfortunately, that funding never materialized.

“The removal of these observations does not hinder the Tsunami Warning Center from fulfilling its mission,” Doster remarked. “AEC [Alaska Earthquake Center] is one among many partners aiding the National Weather Service’s tsunami initiatives, and the NWS continues using various methods to guarantee the collection of seismic data throughout Alaska.”

The White House has not responded to requests for comment.

West indicated that the Alaska Earthquake Center supplies a significant portion of the data utilized for tsunami alerts in the state. The grant funding the nine seismic stations also facilitated a data stream that included inputs from the center’s additional sensors. Consequently, tsunami warning centers across the nation will no longer have direct access to that data feed.

West noted that the stations spread across the Aleutian Islands cover an extensive geographical expanse.

“There’s nothing else in the vicinity,” he pointed out. “It’s not like there’s another piece of equipment 20 miles away; there aren’t even any roads.”

West intends to abandon the station later this month but will leave the equipment behind.

Washington State’s Tobin expressed concerns that the closures “might lead to delays and diminish the quality of tsunami warnings.”

“Surveillance is sparse in this region. We need to be vigilant,” he remarked, adding, “These programs often operate unnoticed until a critical event occurs.”

The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone stands out as one of the most active fault lines globally, having previously triggered substantial tsunamis. In 1964, a magnitude 9.2 earthquake unleashed a tsunami that claimed 124 lives, with 13 fatalities in California and five in Oregon. The majority of California’s casualties occurred in Crescent City, where waves reaching 6 meters obliterated 29 city blocks, according to the city’s website.

Experts in tsunami studies emphasized that the observatory stations in the Aleutian Islands are crucial for the swift identification of nearby earthquakes. The closer an earthquake is to a sensor, the lower the uncertainty regarding the resulting tsunami.

NOAA’s Tsunami Warning Center aims to generate an initial forecast within five minutes, which is vital for local communities. (In the event of a significant earthquake in the Aleutian Islands, the first waves could reach nearby Alaskan towns within minutes.) The only data available quickly enough to facilitate these initial projections comes from seismic signals, as opposed to buoy-mounted tide gauges or pressure sensors.

Subsequently, the warning center provides a more detailed wave height prediction about 40 minutes later. Daniel Ungaard, director of tsunami programs at the Washington Geological Survey, noted that without sensors in Alaska, there would be increased uncertainty about projected wave heights, complicating decisions on whether to initiate evacuations along Washington’s coastline.

“We strive to avoid unnecessary evacuations,” he explained, emphasizing that unwarranted alerts could result in wasted time, resources, and credibility.

Last year, tsunami warning centers nationwide were inundated. In December, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake near Cape Mendocino, California, activated a tsunami warning along the coast. July saw an 8.8 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, prompting a widespread warning along the U.S. West Coast, just west of the Aleutian Islands.

NOAA has been instrumental in establishing many seismic observatories that form part of the Alaska Earthquake Center network. However, West mentioned that over the past two decades, the agency has decreased its support. The nine bases developed by NOAA were decommissioned in 2013.

“Now is the moment for NOAA to decide on their commitment,” he declared. “I aim to ignite a conversation about tsunami preparedness in the United States, ensuring it doesn’t merely arise in response to the next catastrophic tsunami.”