Strategic naps can help you recover from sleep deprivation
Jean Gaumi/Magnum Photo
Sleep researchers devote their careers to understanding how and why we sleep. So what do they do to get a better night’s rest?
It may be comforting to know that even experts don’t always practice what they preach. “I think you’ll find that a lot of sleep researchers are terrible at sleep,” he says. Malcolm von Schantz At Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
This article is part of a special series exploring important questions about sleep. Click here for details.
But what many of them agree on is that consistency is key. Here’s what else they had to say:
make a plan
“It’s all about prioritization and planning. For example, I’m a night owl and like to go to bed late and wake up late, so I try not to have meetings before 10am. I’m thinking ahead about the timing of my daily rhythm in terms of what works best for me and how I can adjust my schedule to support that.”
“We keep the lights in our house pretty dim when the sun goes down, turn on as many indoor lights as possible in the morning, and make sure to open the blinds to let some sunlight into the house as soon as the sun goes down. I think it’s really important to minimize night light and maximize morning light.
Innovations in AI have come a long way since I first used ChatGPT to generate emails two years ago. Take Google’s experimental “AI research assistant,” notebook LM, for example. This tool goes beyond text prompts by allowing users to upload various types of content like videos, links, and PDFs. It organizes your original sources and notes, provides content overviews, answers questions, and even creates podcast-like summaries. As AI tools evolve, we can anticipate more advanced features integrated into everyday software. However, it’s crucial to remember to fact-check and verify the information generated by AI.
Escape Algorithmic Constraints
If you find yourself trapped in a repetitive cycle of music or TV recommendations, it’s time for a change. Platforms like Netflix offer options to reset your viewing history, allowing you to start fresh with new recommendations. Similarly, diversifying your listening habits on Spotify can broaden the range of choices offered to you. Utilize features like Private Session mode or Exclude from Preference Profile to customize your content recommendations based on your preferences.
Identifying AI-Generated Videos
As text-to-video tools become more prevalent, the rise of AI-manipulated videos, known as “deepfakes,” is inevitable. Keep an eye out for watermarks indicating AI generation and be cautious of anomalies like incorrect anatomy or physics in videos. Contextual clues are key in spotting AI-generated content, so stay alert for any content that seems too outlandish or suspicious.
Verify, Watch, and Backup
Incidents of “snatch theft” are on the rise, with thieves targeting mobile phones for resale overseas. While prevention is challenging, ensure to backup important data on your device to mitigate potential losses. Enable automatic syncing to cloud services or manually backup media files through device settings to safeguard your data. In the event of theft, having backup copies ensures that vital information is not lost.
As COP29, the latest round of international climate negotiations, struggles in Azerbaijan, Feedback watches bemused from afar. We have previously covered several COPs and are still on most of the relevant mailing lists. So, as I write this on November 18th, we know that the Climate Action Network's Fossil of the Day is South Korea. That's because South Korea single-handedly blocked a deal by high-income countries to end oil and gas subsidies. Yes, that's enough.
Holding a conference dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a country as heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports as Azerbaijan was always likely to backfire. Feedback believed that diplomacy was about understanding other people's motives, but apparently no one could reconcile what the Azerbaijani government wanted. Soon, President Ilham Aliyev announced that oil and gas “gift from god'', the country's chief negotiator was photographed saying in his opening speech. Apparently they are arranging it A meeting to discuss fossil fuel trading.
Then the conference actually started – or rather, it didn’t really start. On the first day, work stalled within the first hour as several countries objected to the rest of the meeting's agenda. This is how I spent my first day Renegotiating the agendawhile the delegates sat around with nothing to do. Still, climate change is not an urgent problem.
Feedback would like to think things are only uphill from here, but the experience of the past decade suggests otherwise. And I still get shivers when I think about the last night of one of the COPs we attended. It was well past the evening, so the agreement was signed and the party was supposed to start. But then we see young diplomats carrying stacks of take-out pizza boxes into the negotiating room, and we realize that even in the best case scenario, we'll be there until the early hours of the morning. I noticed. Feedback does not endorse this experience or any cases of caffeine addiction associated with it.
Find your inner villain
News Editorial Assistant Alexandra Thompson calls our attention to a brilliantly titled paper about the psychology research repository PsyArXiv.What it means to be a true badass: An experimental investigation of a commonplace concept.”. Its authors, Briana Nguyen and Michael Prinzing, set out to explain what we mean when we say someone is a “bad person.” It's not clear, since both Genghis Khan and Malala Yousafzai could be called villains, but “they are about as different as you can imagine,” they say. Well, quite a bit.
Researchers used a series of online surveys to find out what kinds of people were counted as bad guys and what kinds of people were not. From this, it became clear that “badass'' is a two-layered concept. It has a superficial meaning of being physically strong or having a “fearsome presence.” But there's also a deeper inner meaning about “moral resilience and courage.”
According to the author, Yousafzai embodies this inner evil, while Khan embodies more of the external evil. Feedback is less certain. We read a biography of Khan by John Mann, and he showed remarkable courage in a difficult situation. Still, the distinction between inner and outer badasses sounds plausible.
Feedback sometimes enjoys this kind of research, which delves into the subtle meanings of everyday terms, in quiet moments. A classic example is Harry Frankfurt's book About bullshit. Frankfurt was a philosopher who distinguished between lying (telling a falsehood with the purpose of clearly misleading someone) and bullshit (telling a lie, regardless of its truth or falsity, in order to serve one's own purpose).
About bullshit is useful to read because it explicitly states what we all implicitly understand. Once the concept is clear, it's easier to find examples, which is why June's paper was frankly titled.ChatGPT is bullshit“It's also great to have a term that is accurate and allows for the overused swear words. We think Frankfurt was the worst.
emu in flight
On November 15th, CBS News published twowild and untrainedAn emu (are there other types?) has escaped in South Carolina. They had apparently escaped three months earlier, but their escape didn't garner any attention until 43 monkeys escaped from a medical research facility in the same state. As of November 18th, Six of the monkeys remained at large.. Faced with hordes of marauding monkeys on the run, journalists began looking for similar stories and found (or rather, didn't find) rogue emus.
You can email your article to Feedback at feedback@newscientist.com. Please enter your home address. This week's and past feedback can be found on our website.
a Report from Bloomberg Suggest this week Sony is working on a new portable PlayStation device. As someone who can't bear to leave my PlayStation Vita in the attic and still has it sitting in my desk drawer, this is a very exciting prospect. It's been almost 13 years since Sony released its last portable console, the Vita, and with its crisp big screen and skinny little stick, it's a real wonder. I wish more people would have made games. Papercraft adventure Tearaway and dizzying platform puzzle game Gravity Rush remain underrated.
In fact, aside from the beautiful and very niche Playdate, no one has bothered to release a dedicated handheld game console in over a decade. Both the Nintendo Switch and Valve's Steam Deck are hybrids that can be played handheld or connected to a big screen.
There's a reason for this. First, smartphones have taken over almost the entire portable gaming market, offering an endless supply of free and cheap games on the devices everyone already owns. And secondly, it's handheld and In the past, commercially available home game consoles divided development resources. Only Nintendo has had enough success selling handheld devices to overcome generations of talent split between DS and Wii, or 3DS and Wii U, games. That made the Switch a candidate for the smartest business decision in the company's history. .
Sony, on the other hand, has always struggled to make enough games for the PlayStation Portable (PSP) and Vita, alongside the home PlayStation, to make the handheld console an attractive buy. The PSP, which sold 75 million units, was a highly profitable console, even though it was in direct competition with the Nintendo DS, which sold 150 million units (12 million was sold by the PSP before moving to a competing platform). (Thanks in part to Capcom's Monster Hunter series, which sold more than just books.) But when the Vita launched in 2011, it was obsessed with the smartphone world and only sold an estimated 15 million units.
It’s underrated…. Platform puzzle game “Gravity Rush”. Photo: Sony
The difference this time is that the machine Sony is reportedly developing can play it. existing PlayStation 5 game. The idea seems to be to have a portable and home version of the same console that can play the same games. Bloomberg suggests that Microsoft is also working on portable console prototypes, but none of these may ever make it to market.
Another difference is that cloud gaming has become mainstream. I know a lot of people who used the Vita primarily as a not-so-legal emulator that allowed them to play a ton of retro games, as it was sadly easy to crack. But now, with a PlayStation Plus subscription and fully legal access to Sony's treasure trove of back catalogue, I'm happy to have a handheld gaming console that lets me play most of PlayStation's history without having to buy a game. How many people would pay for it?I'm sure there are many.
Sony did it some There has been experimentation with portable hardware ever since the Vita was discontinued. Late last year, the company released a strange little device called the PlayStation Portal. It's essentially a screen attached to the center of a PlayStation 5 controller, allowing you to stream games from the PS5 and play them in your hands. This has limited practicality, but it's great and I love itSony's hardware design – so I really hope we see a new PlayStation Portable in the next few years, even if it doesn't come loaded with the bite-sized, bespoke games that older handsets enjoyed .
However, as Steam Deck proved, mobile devices can be a game-changer for busy people, as they simply give you more time and opportunities to play, even if you don't have your own dedicated games. For example, the only way to beat Persona 4 was to play it on the vita on the train. With the next portable PlayStation, you could probably manage the last 10 hours of Persona 5.
what to play
Memories… LocoRoco.
When you think about the history of the old portable PlayStation, a few games come to mind. There is LocoLocoa game about a singing blob that's back with this year's Atom Bonus Level. And I spent more than 100 hours with my index finger oddly curled over the PSP's directional button, my hand forming the shape known as Monster Hunter's claw.
And there it is tear awayMedia Molecule's intimate and brilliant Vita platformer is set in a world made of paper. This is the easiest to try as there is a slightly less capable PS4 version. unfolded tear duct Available from the PlayStation Store. It's included with PlayStation Plus, so I just downloaded it to play with my kids this afternoon.
Available: PS4/5 Estimated play time: 8 hours
what to read
Is there a new one on the way? … Bloodborne: The Old Hunters. Photo: Public Relations
If you stick to Sony news, PlayStation 30th anniversary next month. to celebrate, released by Sony There are tons of game soundtracks, timelines, quizzes, and of course some things you can buy.
Shuhei YoshidaThe former head of PlayStation Studios and current head of the company's indie developer initiative will retire from the company in January after 31 years. I last interviewed him last year. He remains one of the friendliest people in the entire gaming industry and one of its most seasoned advocates.
And Sony clearly intends to buy Kadokawa, From Software's parent companyManufacturer of Elden Ring, Dark Souls, and Armored Core. Will we finally get a new Bloodborne?
New version of Microsoft flight simulator have It started in a small state. If you're considering buying one, it's probably best to wait a few months.
Under discussion… Elden Ring: Shadow of the Eld Tree. Photo: unknown/Bandai Namco Europe
leader benjamin This week's question:
“You said your latest Pushing Buttons cost money.” Shadow of the Eld Tree forgame of It's the annual award, but I'm curious. to hear your thoughts First of all, it is a downloadable extension and not a game itself. Wouldn't it set a strange precedent if something that wasn't playable as a standalone could end up being the best game of the year?”
Gaming awards categories such as the Baftas, Game Awards and Golden Joysticks are struggling to keep up with the speed at which video games are evolving. A few years ago, most of them introduced some version of the “games in progress” category to account for games that have been running for years and change frequently, such as Fortnite, No Man's Sky, and Minecraft. did. But now it has become difficult in itself.Does the game have to change in that year to qualify? How about something like Cyberpunk 2077? Although this is not a multiplayer game with continuously new content; did Will it be significantly changed and improved after release? How about a remaster? Should we also consider downloadable expansions? And where should we place games that fit into more than one genre? Every year there are many releases that challenge the definition of categories.
I might end up saying things like this forever. My feeling is that anything released that year, if it's good enough, should be eligible for an award, whether it's an add-on or expansion to an earlier game. Shadow of the Erdtree was over 30 hours long and could very well have been a standalone sequel. That's 10 times longer than some indie games nominated in other categories. Personally, I think it's hard to justify disqualifying this game for technical reasons, but of course I think I'd judge it on its own merits, not the basic game's merits.
If you have any questions for the questions block or anything else you'd like to say about the newsletter, please reply or email us at pushbuttons@theguardian.com.
Climate activists protest outside the Houses of Parliament in London in March.
Andrea Domeniconi/Alamy
This week, more than 400 climate scientists from UK research institutes published an open letterAhead of the general election on 4 July, he called on UK political parties to commit to stronger climate action in the next Parliament.
Their demands included a “credible” carbon reduction strategy for the country, during an election campaign where there has been little in-depth discussion about the UK's transition to net zero.
Why are scientists worried? After all, the UK has one of the most ambitious climate targets in the world – a legally binding target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 – and has halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990.
While great progress has been made in decarbonizing the electricity supply, with around half of all electricity now generated from zero-carbon sources, other sectors are lagging behind. The Committee on Climate Change, the UK government's climate advisers, say that outside the electricity sector, the rate of emissions reductions needs to quadruple over the next seven years for the UK to meet its commitment to cut emissions by 68% by 2030. I said in OctoberHe warned it was “unlikely” the UK would get there under current plans.
“There's a real sense of frustration in the climate science community,” he said. Emily Schuckberg “We are yet to see the level of response that is required,” said a Cambridge University researcher who co-authored the scientists' letter.
The slow progress means problems are piling up, waiting for the next administration to tackle them.
Transportation and Buildings
By the end of the decade, emissions from surface transport – roads, rail and ships – need to fall by around 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, four times the rate of reduction over the past decade. Electric car sales may be growing strongly, but sales of electric vans and trucks are sluggish, and the number of public charging points is not growing fast enough to keep up with the volume of electric vehicles travelling. Meanwhile, public transport use has fallen sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, It's not back to the previous level.
Getting the transport sector to net zero will require more than just convincing everyone to buy electric cars, Michael Pollitt The Cambridge researchers say that reducing the number and size of cars is a key part of the puzzle. “We need more…and electric vehicles.
When it comes to buildings, home heating is the biggest pain point. Around 23 million homes in the UK are heated by gas boilers. By the middle of the century, all of these homes will need to be heated with zero-carbon energy sources, and it is expected that most will switch to heat pumps.
But the pace of the transition is too slow: just 69,000 heat pumps will be installed in UK homes in 2022, far short of the target of 600,000 per year by 2028. Part of…addition, increasing the affordability and efficiency of heat pumps will be crucial for decarbonizing home heating.
It is urgent to solve these problems. Nick Air One Oxford professor who signed the open letter said that a gas boiler installed in 2035 would still be heating homes in 2050. “For heat pumps and cars, we need to be pretty much sorted by the early 2040s, which means we need to get very serious about it in the 2030s,” he said.
That's why the UK government's inaction over the last decade, when it should have been focusing on preparing industry for mass adoption, is so worrying.
Agriculture and Aviation
Beyond heat, power and transport, tougher choices lie ahead. For example, emissions from agriculture and land use have remained almost unchanged for a decade, but need to be reduced by 29% by 2035. Achieving these reductions will likely require actions…
“The biggest challenge is starting to implement policies and regulations that will affect people's daily lives.” Leo Mercer “If policies are not communicated well, people will react quite strongly,” said the professor at the London School of Economics.
Alongside its domestic challenges, the UK needs to rebuild its reputation on the international stage: under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the UK hosted the COP26 climate summit and led international coalitions on deforestation, methane and electric vehicles.
However, progress on climate change measures in the UK has slowed, cuts in international aid and climate diplomacy; Britain's international reputation has suffered, and the government's decisions to approve new fossil fuel projects in the UK while urging lower-income countries to “move away” from fossil fuels have also antagonized the British public.
Unless a country like the UK can demonstrate that net zero is achievable and desirable as a national strategy, it will face an uphill battle to persuade lower-income countries to cut emissions, which is why it is crucial the UK restores its reputation as a climate leader in the next parliament, he says.
Next year, countries are due to submit new commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. “So this is a pivotal moment for the international community,” she said. “This parliament will be crucial…cing in the 2030s,” he said.
What each party is proposing
So which party can take action on the scale needed to get the UK back on track? All the major parties agree on the need to reach net zero by mid-century, and Labour and the Conservatives are remarkably in agreement on the need for renewable energy, particularly offshore wind.
But Labour has made an eye-catching promise to deliver a fully decarbonised electricity grid by 2030. Adam Bell A former senior UK government official at Stonehaven, a British consultancy, said the target was “highly ambitious” and would push government agencies to the limits of their capabilities. [Labour] It could be even more ambitious.”
But for Eyre, a credible climate manifesto should also include ambitious targets in the areas where the UK is seriously off track: home energy efficiency, heat pump adoption, industrial emissions, land use, solar power and electric vehicles. “It's not a matter of doing one or two of them,” Eyre says. “We need to do them all.”
Many experts privately doubt that the major parties have policy programmes with the pace and scale needed to get to net zero by 2050. Absent that, looking for enthusiasm for the challenges ahead may be the next best way to gauge a party's credibility. In Eyre's eyes, the next UK government is embarking on a “10-year plan on the scale of the introduction of the steam engine.” “If you don't have a positive vision yourself, you're not going to sell it to the public,” he says.
It can be challenging to ask for help when you need it, but you’re not alone in feeling this way.
Psychologists have studied this phenomenon for many years, as people’s reluctance to seek help has led to various high-profile failures. These failures, such as those with the Hubble Space Telescope and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, were often worsened by key individuals not seeking assistance.
Asking for help requires bravery because it means admitting you have needs or lack knowledge in certain areas. You may fear appearing incompetent, losing control, or giving someone else credit for your efforts. However, seeking help is essential for growth and success.
Low self-esteem or anxiety can make asking for help even more challenging, as you may fear rejection. Remember, it’s okay to seek help, as no one can do everything alone. Research shows that asking for advice actually makes you appear more competent.
Studies indicate that those who help others tend to like them more, and people are often more willing to assist than you might think. Remind yourself of this the next time you need help and be thoughtful about who you ask and when.
If someone can’t help, don’t take it personally. They may be busy or unsure of how to assist. Asking for help is a normal and necessary part of life, so don’t hesitate to reach out when needed.
This article addresses the question of why it’s challenging to ask for help, posed by Sally Gardner via email.
If you have any questions, feel free to contact us via the email address below. For more information, you can also reach out on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram.
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When you’ve tried to order something online during a work break, like a new electric toothbrush, you likely expected it to be simple. However, the overwhelming number of choices and options may have left you feeling paralyzed by decision making.
There are numerous factors to consider beyond just price and delivery time, such as battery life and advanced features like warning lights for excessive pressure or accompanying apps.
Decision paralysis occurs when the abundance of options and the challenge of weighing them all prevent you from making a choice, especially within a limited time frame.
It was once believed that more choices would benefit consumers, but in reality, it can lead to decision fatigue and drive people away.
In other life situations, the weight of decision making may weigh heavily on you, even if you only have a few options. The fear of choosing wrongly, whether it’s a college, job, or romantic partner, can cause decision paralysis.
Individuals known as “maximizers,” who strive to find the optimal choice, are more prone to decision paralysis compared to “satisfied people” who are content with a good enough decision.
The fear of regret for making a wrong decision can also contribute to decision paralysis, as can the concept of opportunity cost – what you’ll miss out on by choosing a particular path.
There are several ways to overcome decision paralysis: realize that perfect decisions are rare, understand that not deciding is a decision in itself, and simplify the decision-making process by prioritizing important factors and scoring options against them.
If you have any inquiries, please contact us at questions@sciencefocus.com or reach out to us on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram with your name and location.
For more interesting information and science articles, visit our website.
SAs historic legislation obtained enough votes to pass in the U.S. Senate, divisions among online child safety advocates have emerged. Some former opponents of the bill have been swayed by amendments and now lend their support. However, its staunchest critics are demanding further changes.
The Kids Online Safety Act (Kosa), introduced over two years ago, garnered 60 supporters in the Senate by mid-February. Despite this, numerous human rights groups continue to vehemently oppose the bill, highlighting the ongoing discord among experts, legislators, and activists over how to ensure the safety of young people in the digital realm.
“The Kids Online Safety Act presents our best chance to tackle the harmful business model of social media, which has resulted in the loss of far too many young lives and contributed to a mental health crisis,” stated Josh Golin, executive director of Fair, a children’s online safety organization.
Critics argue that the amendments made to the bill do not sufficiently address their concerns. Aliya Bhatia, a policy analyst at the Center for Democratic Technology, expressed, “A one-size-fits-all approach to child safety is insufficient in protecting children. This bill operates on the assumption of a consensus regarding harmful content types and designs, which does not exist. Such a belief hampers the ability of young people to freely engage online, impeding their access to the necessary communities.”
What is the Kids Online Safety Act?
The Xhosa bill, spearheaded by Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Tennessee Republican Marsha Blackburn, represents a monumental shift in U.S. tech legislation. The bill mandates platforms like Instagram and TikTok to mitigate online risks through alterations to their designs and the ability to opt out of algorithm-based recommendations. Enforcement would necessitate more profound changes to social networks compared to current regulations.
Initially introduced in 2022, the bill elicited an open letter signed by over 90 human rights organizations vehemently opposing it. The coalition argued that the bill could enable conservative state attorneys general, who determine harmful content, to restrict online resources and information concerning LGBTQ+ youth and individuals seeking reproductive health care. They cautioned that the bill could potentially be exploited for censorship.
Many of us have felt some amount of stress over the past few years. Exhibit A for me is my teeth. A recent trip to the dentist confirmed that I had been clenching my jaw for months due to the pandemic. This was the result of the normal stress of deadlines, compounded by the demands of two young children, four of whom had broken bones.
A broken tooth is a small fry. Last year, the American Psychological Association Two-thirds of people in the US report feeling more stressed due to the pandemic, found, and predicted “a mental health crisis that could have serious health and social consequences for years to come.” Increased risks of diabetes, depression, and cardiovascular disease are all associated with high stress levels. Just thinking about it makes me feel stressed.
But maybe we just need to think about stress differently. At least, that's the surprising conclusion of researchers studying the mind-body relationship. They say there are natural benefits to feeling stressed, and if we change the way we “think about stress,” we can turn things around and make stress have a positive impact on our lives. maybe. Fortunately, there are some simple hacks that can help you do this, and you can expect to see improved physical health, clarity of thought, increased mental strength, and increased productivity. Masu.
There's no denying that too much stress can have a negative impact on your body and mind. In the West, it has been linked to all six major causes of death: cancer, heart disease, liver disease, accidents, lung disease, and suicide. Your immune system may be weakened, making you more susceptible to infections and less infectious.
A new study reveals that a spatiotemporal substitution method used to predict species responses to climate change inaccurately predicts the effects of warming on ponderosa pines. This finding suggests that this method may be unreliable in predicting species’ future responses to changes in climate. Credit: SciTechDaily.com
A new study involving researchers at the University of Arizona suggests that changes are happening faster than trees can adapt. The discovery is a “warning to ecologists” studying climate change.
As the world warms and the climate changes, life will migrate, adapt, or become extinct. For decades, scientists have introduced certain methods to predict how things will happen. seed We will survive this era of great change. But new research suggests that method may be misleading or producing false results.
Flaws in prediction methods revealed
Researchers at the University of Arizona and team members from the U.S. Forest Service and Brown University found that this method (commonly referred to as spatiotemporal replacement) shows how a tree called the ponderosa pine, which is widespread in the western United States, grows. I discovered something that I couldn’t predict accurately. We have actually responded to global warming over the past few decades. This also means that other studies that rely on displacement in space and time may not accurately reflect how species will respond to climate change in coming decades.
The research team collected and measured growth rings of ponderosa pine trees from across the western United States, dating back to 1900, to determine how trees actually grow and how models predict how trees will respond to warming. We compared.
A view of ponderosa and Jeffrey pine forests from Verdi Mountain near Truckee, California.Credit: Daniel Perrette
“We found that substituting time for space produces incorrect predictions in terms of whether the response to warming will be positive or negative,” said study co-author Margaret Evans, an associate professor at the University of Arizona. ” he said. Tree ring laboratory. “With this method, ponderosa pines are supposed to benefit from warming, but they actually suffer from warming. This is dangerously misleading.”
Their research results were published on December 18th. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Daniel Perrette, a U.S. Forest Service ORISE fellow, is the lead author and received training in tree-ring analysis through the university’s summer field methods course at the University of Arizona Research Institute. The study was part of his doctoral dissertation at Brown University, and was conducted with Dov Sachs, professor of biogeography and biodiversity and co-author of the paper.
Inaccuracies in space and time substitutions
This is how space and time permutation works. All species occupy a range of favorable climatic conditions. Scientists believe that individuals growing at the hottest end of their range could serve as an example of what will happen to populations in cooler locations in a warmer future.
The research team found that ponderosa pine trees grow at a faster rate in warmer locations. Therefore, under the spatial and temporal displacement paradigm, this suggests that the situation should improve as the climate warms at the cold end of the distribution.
“But the tree-ring data doesn’t show that,” Evans said.
However, when the researchers used tree rings to assess how individual trees responded to changes in temperature, they found that ponderosa was consistently negatively affected by temperature fluctuations.
“If it’s a warmer-than-average year, they’re going to have smaller-than-average growth rings, so warming is actually bad for them, and that’s true everywhere,” she says.
The researchers believe this may be happening because trees are unable to adapt quickly enough to a rapidly changing climate.
An individual tree and all its growth rings are a record of that particular tree’s genetics exposed to different climatic conditions from one year to the next, Evans said. But how a species responds as a whole is the result of a slow pace of evolutionary adaptation to the average conditions in a particular location that are different from those elsewhere. Similar to evolution, the movement of trees that are better adapted to changing temperatures could save species, but climate change is happening too quickly, Evans said.
Rainfall effects and final thoughts
Beyond temperature, the researchers also looked at how trees responded to rainfall. They confirmed that, even across time and space, more water is better.
“These spatially-based predictions are really dangerous because spatial patterns reflect the end point after a long period in which species have had the opportunity to evolve, disperse, and ultimately sort themselves across the landscape. Because we do,” Evans said. “But that’s not how climate change works. Unfortunately, trees are in a situation where they are changing faster than they can adapt and are actually at risk of extinction. This is a warning to ecologists. .”
References: “Species responses to spatial climate change do not predict responses to climate change,” by Daniel L. Perrett, Margaret EK Evans, and Dov F. Sachs, December 18, 2023. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2304404120
Funding: Brown University Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Brown Institute for the Environment and Society, American Philosophical Society Lewis and Clark Expeditionary and Field Research Fund, Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Department of Energy Oak Ridge Science Institute Education , NSF Macrosystems Biology
Baris Guzel He is an engineer with experience working at top investment banks and venture capital firms.he is a partner of BMW i VenturesAs a director and observer, he led investments and supported many companies.
brian way I am an associate of BMW i Venturesfocuses on early-to-growth stage investments in B2B applications and infrastructure software, industrial automation, mobility, and sustainability. Prior to joining BMW i Ventures, Brian was a strategy consultant at his KPMG Strategy.
Until recently, many Startups have prioritized growth at all costs, disregarding profitability and sustainability to acquire users and leverage deep venture capital to dominate markets. However, recent market conditions have shifted towards ‘lean growth’, which balances growth and profitability and creates a path to sustainable scale-up.
As investors, we focus on identifying efficient growth in a company’s early stages. What are the early indicators of long-term success and efficient growth of a startup? To find the answer to this question, we use a variety of analyses, some of which we will discuss in this article .
As investors, we leverage cohort analysis to uncover the mechanisms of growth, retention, and sales efficiency.
Given the different ways LTV can be calculated, the lack of steady-state churn data, and the estimates of LTV/CAC calculations, it’s possible that we don’t know the true meaning of what drives customer acquisition and retention for businesses. There is a gender. Given the shortcomings of LTV/CAC calculations, we suggest using cohort analysis to plot how long it takes to recoup the initial sales and marketing spend to acquire each cohort .
The flaws in using LTV/CAC — why use cohorts to measure sales efficiency?
Before getting into the analysis, I would like to explain why commonly used metrics can be misleading. Investors often evaluate a company’s go-to-market engine by its LTV/CAC (lifetime value/customer acquisition cost) metric, but this metric is not important for early-stage companies for several reasons. This often happens.
There are too many ways to calculate LTV.
Churn rates are not stable enough to accurately predict a customer’s lifetime. As an early-stage company, your customer churn rate will fluctuate as you pursue product-market fit. If the product improves over time by adding features that address customer needs, we would expect the churn rate to decrease. Despite product improvements, there are external factors beyond a company’s control, such as macro headwinds, that can drive higher churn rates.
There is a time discrepancy in this ratio. LTV/CAC relates today’s sales and marketing spend to a customer’s future discounted cash flows, which are essentially estimates. For example, using metrics collected during the COVID-19 outbreak to predict the future may result in inaccurate predictions.
What is a cohort? Why is it important?
Cohort analysis is a method of evaluating a business by classifying customers into groups (cohorts) from different points of acquisition and observing how they behave over a defined period of time. Tracked behaviors include the number of orders placed, amount spent, and number of features used over a period of time.
This analysis can be applied to various business models such as SaaS, FinTech, and even marketplaces (at the time, we used this analysis to conduct our analysis) ride-hailing company).Cohort analysis is valuable in looking at specific variables over time This allows you to understand the business story regarding revenue, acquisition costs, and churn within a single cohort and across cohorts.
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