Tag Archives: warming

Surprising Resilience: How Sea Turtles May Thrive Amid Global Warming

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Young Loggerhead Sea Turtle in the Caribbean Sea near the Bahamas

WaterFrame/Alamy

Recent research indicates that sea turtles may be more resilient to climate change than previously believed. Concerns have been raised that rising temperatures could lead to the extinction of these reptiles, as a majority of turtle eggs tend to develop into females. However, scientists have discovered a genetic safety net that maintains a more balanced sex ratio even as temperatures increase.

According to Chris Eizaguirre at Queen Mary University of London, “We believe we have uncovered the ability of turtles to adapt to the environment they find themselves in.”

The gender of baby sea turtles is temperature-dependent rather than determined by chromosomes. Laboratory studies show that cooler nest temperatures favor male hatchlings, while warmer conditions promote female hatchlings. This raises concerns that global warming could result in significantly more female turtles.

For instance, genetic research conducted in 2018 revealed that around 99% of young green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) aged 4 to 20 years in a nesting area off Australia were female. This finding contributed to alarming predictions about male shortages which could lead to a population collapse.

However, due to the challenges of identifying a turtle’s gender before it reaches maturity, field data regarding hatchling sex ratios have been limited.

To address this gap, Eizaguirre and colleagues conducted both laboratory and field experiments focused on loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta).

In one phase of the study, they collected 240 eggs from seven loggerhead nests along Florida’s Palm Beach County coast. These eggs were incubated at three different temperatures: 27°C (81°F) suitable for male hatchling production, 30°C (86°F) for an equal sex ratio, and 32°C (90°F) to promote female hatchlings.

After one to three days, blood samples were taken from the hatchlings, which were kept until mature enough for sex determination via keyhole surgery or laparoscopic imaging.

By comparing genetic data from the blood samples, researchers found distinctive activity patterns in hundreds of genes that indicated sex, attributable to an epigenetic process called DNA methylation. In females, 383 genes were hypermethylated, while males had 394 hypermethylated genes, many of which are known to play roles in sexual development.

Utilizing these findings, the team conducted field research on Sal Island, Cape Verde, collecting 29 newly laid loggerhead sea turtle eggs. The eggs were divided, with half buried in a cooler area and the other half in a warmer spot, and monitored for temperature variations.

Analysis of blood samples from 116 hatchlings revealed a higher number of males than predicted, suggesting previous models had overestimated female hatchling production by 50-60%, likely due to previously unrecognized biological adaptations.

“This discovery highlights that molecular mechanisms exist that help turtles adapt to climate change by modulating the sensitivity of sexual differentiation to temperature,” Eizaguirre explains.

“While feminization is a concern and does occur due to climate change, we are suggesting that if populations are robust and genetically diverse, species can adapt to their environmental conditions,” he adds.

These findings are supported by recent evidence from Graham Hayes at Deakin University, which showed that more male sea turtles are hatching than originally expected if temperature were the sole factor in sex determination. Hayes notes that turtles can adapt their crucial temperature-related sex ratios to local conditions.

In addition, turtles employ other strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, such as nesting earlier in the season and adjusting their migration patterns to breeding grounds to counteract feminization effects. “While females may not breed annually, males migrate to breeding grounds more frequently, contributing to a more balanced reproductive sex ratio,” Hayes explains.

Despite these behavioral adaptations, Eizaguirre warns that hatchlings still face threats from excessive heat, which can lead to lasting changes in DNA methylation—an indication of molecular adaptation that is promising for these vulnerable reptiles.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Arctic Warming: Some Effects May Remain Irreversible Despite Reduced Carbon Dioxide Levels

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Birth near the Heisinger Glacier in Greenland

Glacier meets sea at Dixon Fjord in Greenland

Jane Rix/Alamy

Even if atmospheric carbon dioxide returns to pre-industrial levels and the global temperature decreases, the Arctic is projected to warm by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius.

It is also expected that the region will receive about 0.1 millimeter of extra precipitation daily, regardless of the implementation of large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies.

“These findings emphasize the irreversible aspect of climate change in the Arctic, even with aggressive CDR efforts,” the researchers stated in their publication.

Current atmospheric CO2 levels are roughly 1.5 times greater than pre-industrial levels, resulting in a warming of 3°C or more. A study published in March revealed that even if extra carbon dioxide were removed, sea ice coverage would still average 1 million square kilometers less.

In a new investigation, researchers led by Xiaodong from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Beijing utilized 11 distinct climate models to assess the likelihood of continued Arctic warming. The findings also indicate that precipitation is likely to increase, according to Michael Meredith from the British Antarctic Survey, who was not part of the study.

The primary reason for this persistent warming is that oceans, which have absorbed 90% of the heat from global warming, will continue to warm the Arctic for centuries, even when atmospheric temperatures decrease. This situation will likely be amplified by feedback mechanisms, such as diminishing sea ice, which causes the open ocean to raise air temperatures.

“Even if the atmosphere continues to cool, the oceans will lag behind and counteract this trend,” Meredith remarked.

Many experts express skepticism about whether CDR methods, including tree planting and mechanical CO2 extraction, can significantly lower atmospheric CO2 levels due to the financial and energy challenges, a process that could take thousands of years.

Dong et al. examined a theoretical scenario where atmospheric CO2 levels quadrupled from pre-industrial amounts over 140 years, decreased for another 140 years, and then remained at pre-industrial levels for 60 additional years.

The study also reviewed two potential real-world climate scenarios: one in which humanity immediately reduces emissions, and another where emissions remain high but CDR efforts ramp up quickly starting in 2070. In these scenarios, similar to the theoretical model, the Arctic was found to be approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer with precipitation increasing by an additional 0.1 mm per day by 2100.

The models forecast a decrease in temperatures and precipitation in the waters just south of Greenland and Iceland, contrasting with other regions in the Far North. This suggests a decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for transporting warm surface water from the tropics to this area. This current is already weakening as global ocean temperatures rise, a trend that might lead to colder winters in Europe over time.

Climate-related effects, such as thawing permafrost and melting of the Greenland ice sheet, are likely to persist but were not included in this study’s models.

“The Greenland ice sheet is expected to behave as observed, meaning it will continue to lose mass and contribute to sea level rise,” stated Mark Selles from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center.

While the study indicates that the Arctic will remain warm for centuries, it is anticipated that it will eventually cool over the course of many more centuries or even millennia.

topic:

  • climate change/
  • arctic

Source: www.newscientist.com

Polar Bears Are Adapting Their Genetics to Thrive in a Warming Climate

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As climate change continues to undermine the icy habitats crucial for polar bear survival, new studies indicate that these bears are swiftly altering their genetic makeup to adapt.

This species is being compelled to cope with the increasingly harsh conditions of a warming Arctic, marking what scientists believe to be the first documented instance of rising temperatures prompting genetic adaptations in a mammal.

Research conducted by the University of East Anglia in the UK revealed findings: published in Friday’s issue of the journal Mobile DNA, which offers a rare glimmer of hope for these animals.

“Polar bears are sadly projected to face extinction this century, with two-thirds of their population potentially gone by 2050,” Alice Godden, the study’s lead author, shared with NBC News.

“We believe our findings genuinely provide a flicker of hope: a chance to reduce carbon emissions, mitigate climate change, and allow bears more time to adapt to significant changes in their habitats.”

Building on previous research from the University of Washington, Godden’s team studied blood samples from polar bears in northeastern and southeastern Greenland. In the comparatively warmer southern region, genes associated with heat stress, aging, and metabolism showed different behavior compared to those in the north.

“Essentially, this indicates that various groups of bears are modifying different segments of their DNA at varying rates, with this activity seemingly linked to their specific environmental and climatic contexts,” Godden mentioned in a university press release.

He remarked that this is the first indication that a distinct population of a species has been driven to “rewrite its own DNA,” suggesting this process is a “desperate survival mechanism” against disappearing sea ice.

The Arctic Ocean has consistently recorded unusually high temperatures in recent years, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Monitoring data suggests.

Researchers assert that rising ocean temperatures are diminishing the vital sea ice foundation that bears rely on for hunting seals, leading to isolation and food shortages.

Godden explained to NBC News that the genetic changes emerged as the bears’ digestive systems adapted to food scarcity, including a lack of prey, plant life, and low-fat diets.

“Access to food poses a critical challenge for these bears everywhere, particularly in the South,” she notes. “This may indicate that their physical structure and composition are also evolving in response to warmer surroundings.”

The lead researcher stated that her team targeted the southern bear group as the region’s warmer climate provides insights into what other bear populations may experience later this century if current climate trends persist.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature estimates around 26,000 polar bears currently exist globally. Known scientifically as Ursus maritimus, or “sea bear,” these animals are classified as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, believed to be at “high risk of extinction in the wild.”

The research “doesn’t imply that polar bears are at a reduced risk of extinction,” Godden stated. However, she added this finding “could provide a genetic framework for how polar bears may swiftly adapt to climate change.”

Godden further urged, “We all need to take action to reduce our carbon footprint and create opportunities to protect and expand this incredible and vital species.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Coral Reefs Triggered Major Global Warming Events in Earth’s History

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Corals construct their skeletons from calcium carbonate, releasing carbon dioxide as a byproduct.

Reinhard Dirscherl/Alamy

For the last 250 million years, coral reef systems have been crucial to the Earth’s climate, but perhaps not in the manner you might assume.

Coral reefs generate excess carbon dioxide because the formation of calcium carbonate, which constitutes coral skeletons, involves the release of greenhouse gases.

Certain plankton species utilize calcium carbonate to form their shells, and when these organisms perish, the mineral becomes buried on the ocean floor. In ecosystems dominated by coral, calcium and carbonate ions that typically nourish deep-sea plankton are rendered inaccessible.

Tristan Salles and his team at the University of Sydney conducted a modeling study on the interactions among shallow corals and deep-sea plankton over the last 250 million years, incorporating reconstructions of plate tectonics, climate simulations, and variations in sediment contribution to the ocean.

They determined that tectonic activity and geographic features foster periods with extensive shallow continental shelves, which provide optimal conditions for reef-building corals, thereby disrupting the coral-plankton dynamics.

As the area covered by coral reefs diminishes, calcium and alkali levels accumulate in the ocean, enhancing plankton productivity and increasing the burial of carbonate in the deep ocean. This shift contributes to lower CO2 concentrations and cooler temperatures.

The study revealed three significant disruptions in the carbon cycle over the past 250 million years. During these events—specifically in the Mid-Triassic, Mid-Jurassic, and Late Cretaceous—extensive coral reefs consumed vast amounts of calcium carbonate, resulting in notable ocean temperature increases.

Once the balance between shallow-sea corals and deep-sea plankton is disrupted, realignment can require hundreds of thousands to millions of years, noted Salles.

“Even if the system recovers from a significant crisis, achieving equilibrium will be a prolonged process, significantly extending beyond human timelines,” Salles elaborated.

On a brighter note, Salles observes that corals excel at absorbing excess nutrients to aid in reef building, even if planktonic nutrient growth gets excessive.

Currently, human-induced carbon dioxide emissions are driving unprecedented global warming and ocean acidification, endangering both corals and plankton, according to Salles. While the outcomes remain uncertain, the potential impact on ecosystems could be catastrophic.

“The feedback mechanisms we modeled span deep time and may not be relevant today. The current rate of change is too rapid for carbonate platform feedbacks to maintain similar significance.”

Alexander Skiles from the Australian National University in Canberra remarks that this research illustrates a “profoundly interconnected feedback cycle between ecosystems and climate.”

He suggested that while species are presumed to evolve and adapt to the climatic conditions dictated by “immutable physical and chemical processes,” it is increasingly evident that certain species are actively shaping the climate itself, leading to co-evolutionary feedback loops.

“Beyond corals, ancient microbial colonies like stromatolites have significantly influenced atmospheric carbon regulation,” Skiles pointed out.

“It is well-recognized that carbon is accelerating climate warming at an alarming rate. Corals contribute to this dynamic over extensive geological time, which may elucidate fluctuations between warmer and cooler periods.”

Source: www.newscientist.com

Global Warming and Drought: The Factors Behind the Indus Civilization’s Collapse

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Indus Valley Civilization ruins in Moenjodaro, Pakistan

Sergey-73/Shutterstock

A changing climate and intense droughts significantly impacted the Indus Valley Civilization, a remarkable urban society that thrived approximately 4,000 years ago in present-day Pakistan and India.

This civilization established settlements along the Indus River and its tributaries, extending their reach beyond other prominent ancient cultures like those in Egypt and Mesopotamia. Known as the Harappan civilization, they constructed various cities, with Harappa being a notable hub housing around 35,000 residents.

While their writing system remains largely undeciphered, the Harappans excelled in water management, featuring extensive cisterns and a complex sewage system made of terracotta pipes and brick channels. Unfortunately, these advancements could not endure the prolonged hot and arid conditions over millennia.

“There were four significant droughts between the pre-Harappan and late Harappan periods,” says Vimal Mishra, a researcher at the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar. “This led to ongoing migrations to regions with more reliable water sources.”

Prior studies indicated that a global drought 4,200 years ago weakened monsoon rains in the Indus Valley, contributing to the civilizations’ downfall. However, Mishra and his colleagues posit that the decline was a more gradual process.

Using three climate models, the researchers estimated rainfall patterns in the area, validating their conclusions with data from stalactites, stalagmites, and lake sediments.

The findings revealed that from 4,400 to 3,400 years ago, the Indus Valley Civilization experienced four prolonged droughts, each lasting at least 85 years, accompanied by a temperature increase of about 0.5°C.

Additional modeling suggested a drop in the Indus River’s water levels. It is believed that the Harappans honored the river and relied on its annual floods for irrigation of crops such as wheat and barley, congregating around waterways. Continued droughts ultimately forced them to abandon their cities and resettle in the foothills of the Himalayas and the Ganges plains.

Research indicates that warming and drying trends may have been initiated by natural climate cycles such as El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, along with feedback mechanisms including vegetation loss and dust pollution.

This study stands out for its innovative integration of modeling and proxy measurements; however, it advocates for future research to consider evapotranspiration (the transfer of water from land to the atmosphere), particularly significant in hot climates. According to Sebastian Breitenbach from Northumbria University, UK, the current pace of climate change outstrips that of the Harappans, necessitating that policymakers explore adaptive strategies, including improved water storage systems and groundwater conservation.

“These studies serve as a cautionary tale,” Breitenbach remarks, “providing insights into potential future scenarios.”

Cairo and Alexandria: The Cradle of Ancient Science in Egypt

Embark on an extraordinary voyage through Cairo and Alexandria, two of Egypt’s most legendary cities, where ancient history intertwines with contemporary allure.

Topics:

  • climate change/
  • archeology

Source: www.newscientist.com

U.S. Rivers Face Unprecedented and Severe Impacts from Global Warming

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Rivers across the United States are experiencing increasing temperatures.

A recent analysis of nearly 1,500 river locations spanning over 40 years reveals a rise in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves, posing risks to many species accustomed to cooler waters.

“The increase in river heat waves is actually outpacing that of air heat waves, which is quite surprising,” states Li Li, a professor of environmental engineering at Pennsylvania State University and the study’s author.

A new analysis published in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is the first comprehensive study defining river heat waves as five consecutive hot days compared to seasonal averages.

The researchers identified climate change, which significantly impacts humans, as a major contributor to this trend, due to diminishing snowpacks and slower stream flows.

Human factors also play a role; for example, dams inhibit downstream flow, while urban structures absorb heat, warming both air and water.

Scientists are concerned that species reliant on cold water, such as salmon and trout, will increasingly struggle as river temperatures rise. Li emphasizes the necessity of tracking fish fatalities and ongoing trends.

Higher temperatures decrease the amount of dissolved oxygen in water. Additionally, cold water species generally exhibit increased metabolism in warmer conditions, leading to further oxygen depletion.

These findings could influence basin management strategies and help determine if adjustments in irrigation or dam releases can support aquatic life during elevated temperatures.

“Water management practices can significantly impact heat waves,” noted Jonathan Walter, a research scientist at UC Davis’ Center for Watershed Sciences, who was not part of the study. “If there is sufficient reservoir water, it may be feasible to moderate downstream temperatures by releasing water to mitigate extreme heat.”

While heat waves in oceans and lakes have been studied extensively, there has been limited research on the implications of rising temperatures in rivers until now.

Satellite data have advanced the study of ocean and lake heat, but river temperature research is challenged by reliance on often unusable river gauge sensors, resulting in significant data gaps.

For this new study, researchers analyzed data from 1,471 US Geological Survey monitoring sites from 1980 to 2022.

This data enabled an assessment of shifts in streams nationwide, revealing that by 2022, river heat waves were occurring more frequently than in 1980, with an average increase of 1.8 additional heatwave events per year. These heat waves were also more severe, with temperatures during these events being approximately 0.8 degrees Fahrenheit higher in 2022 than in 1980. Moreover, the duration of heat wave events extended by over three days.

Li noted that this extra heat caused an average of about 12 days of heat stress for cold water species. The study defined 59°F as the threshold for heat stress, as many species, including bull trout, face survival challenges at this temperature.

“When considering water, its visibility draws attention to its significance,” Li remarked. “We hope this research raises public awareness on water quality challenges stemming from climate change.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Research Suggests Future Ozone Changes May Lead to Unexpected Global Warming

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The prohibition of ozone-depleting substances like CFCs has facilitated the recovery of the ozone layer. However, when paired with rising air pollution levels, the heating effects of ozone are now expected to warm the planet by an additional 40% more than previously estimated.

Antarctica’s ozone hole in 2020. Image credit: ESA.

“CFCs and HCFCs are greenhouse gases contributing to global warming,” stated Professor Bill Collins of Reading University and his colleagues.

“Countries have banned these substances to protect the ozone layer, with hopes it will also mitigate climate change.”

“However, as the ozone layer continues to heal, the resulting warming could offset much of the climate benefits we expect from eliminating CFCs and HCFCs.”

“Efforts to reduce air pollution will limit ground-level ozone.”

“Still, the ozone layer will take decades to fully recover, irrespective of air quality policies, leading to unavoidable warming.”

“Safeguarding the ozone layer is vital for human health and skin cancer prevention.”

“It shields the Earth from harmful UV radiation that can affect humans, animals, and plants.”

“Yet, this study indicates that climate policies must be revised to consider the enhanced warming effects of ozone.”

The researchers utilized computer models to project atmospheric changes by the mid-century.

The models continued under a scenario of low pollution, where CFCs and HCFCs have been eliminated as per the Montreal Protocol (1987).

The results indicate that stopping the production of CFCs and HCFCs—primarily to defend the ozone layer—offers fewer climate advantages than previously thought.

Between 2015 and 2050, ozone is predicted to cause an excess warming of 0.27 watts per square meter (WM-2).

This value denotes the additional energy trapped per square meter of the Earth’s surface—carbon dioxide (which contributes 1.75 WM-2) will rank as the second-largest influence on future warming by 2050.

“Countries are making the right choice by continuing to ban CFCs and HCFCs that endanger the ozone layer globally,” stated Professor Collins.

“While this contributes to the restoration of the ozone layer, we’ve discovered that this recovery results in greater planetary warming than initially anticipated.”

“Ground-level ozone generated from vehicle emissions, industrial activities, and power plants also poses health risks and exacerbates global warming.”

The results were published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

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WJ Collins et al. 2025. Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: Intercomparison of metrics and methods. Atmos. Chemistry. Phys 25, 9031-9060; doi: 10.5194/ACP-25-9031-2025

Source: www.sci.news

Fossilized Teeth Uncover How Extinct Carnivorous Mammals Adapted to Global Warming 56 Million Years Ago

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Around 56 million years ago, during a period of significant geological warming known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the mesonychid mammal Dissacus Praenuntius exhibited remarkable dietary changes—it began to consume more bones.

Dissacus Praenuntius. Image credit: DIBGD / CC by 4.0.

“I am a doctoral student at Rutgers University in New Brunswick,” stated Andrew Schwartz from the University of New Jersey.

“We are observing a similar trend: rising carbon dioxide levels, increasing temperatures, and the destruction of ecosystems.”

In their study, Schwartz and his team analyzed small pits and marks left on fossilized teeth using a method known as dental microwear texture analysis. The research focused on the extinct mammal Dissacus Praenuntius, part of the Mesonychidae family.

This ancient omnivore weighed between 12 and 20 kg, comparable in size to jackals and coyotes.

Common in the early Cenozoic forests, it likely had a diverse diet that included meat, fruits, and insects.

“They resembled wolves with large heads,” Schwartz remarked.

“Their teeth were similar to those of hyenas, though they lacked small hooves on their toes.”

“Before this phase of warming, Dissacus Praenuntius mainly consumed tough meat, akin to a modern cheetah’s diet.”

“However, during and after this ancient warming period, their teeth showed wear patterns consistent with crushing hard substances like bones.”

“Our findings indicate that their dental microwear is similar to that of lions and hyenas.”

“This suggests they were consuming more brittle food rather than their usual smaller prey, which became scarce.”

This shift in diet occurred alongside a slight decrease in body size, likely a result of food shortages.

“While earlier theories attributed body size reduction solely to rising temperatures, this latest research indicates that food scarcity was a significant factor,” Schwartz explained.

“The rapid global warming of this time lasted around 200,000 years, but the changes it caused were swift and dramatic.”

“Studying periods like this can offer valuable lessons for understanding current and future climatic changes.”

“Examining how animals have adapted and how ecosystems responded can reveal much about what might happen next.”

“The research underscores the importance of dietary flexibility; species that can consume a variety of foods are more likely to endure environmental pressures.”

“In the short term, excelling in a specific area can be beneficial,” Schwartz added.

“However, in the long run, generalists—animals that are adaptable across various niches—are more likely to survive environmental changes.”

This understanding can assist modern conservation biologists in identifying vulnerable species today.

Species with specialized diets, like pandas, may struggle as their habitats diminish, while more adaptable species, such as jackals and raccoons, might thrive.

“We’re already starting to see these trends,” Schwartz noted.

“Previous research has shown that African jackals have begun to consume more bones and insects over time, likely due to habitat loss and climate stress.”

The study also indicated that rapid climate change, reminiscent of historical events, could lead to significant shifts in ecosystems, influencing prey availability and predator behaviors.

This suggests that contemporary climate change could similarly disrupt food webs, pushing species to adapt and face extinction risks.

“Nonetheless, Dissacus Praenuntius was a robust and adaptable species that thrived for about 15 million years before eventually going extinct,” Schwartz said.

Scientists believe this extinction was driven by environmental changes and competition with other species.

The study was published in June 2025 in the journal Paleogeography, Paleoclimatology, Paleoecology.

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Andrew Schwartz et al. 2025. Dietary Changes in Mesonychids During the Eocene Heat Maximum: The Case of Dissacus Praenuntius. Paleogeography, Paleoclimatology, Paleoecology 675:113089; doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2025.113089

Source: www.sci.news

Should We Set 1.7°C as a New Global Warming Limit?

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As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of wildfires are projected to increase.

Costas Metaxakis/AFP via Getty Images

When you tell a child to “stay far from the cliff’s edge,” how close can they get before you call them back? This dilemma is currently perplexing climate scientists: the risk of exceeding our global commitment to keep warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is increasing. Once we step into the danger zone, what consequences will follow?

“The government is aiming for a 1.5°C target, but understanding what this means in a world that’s already above that threshold is not straightforward,” says Robin Lambor from Imperial College London. “It would be beneficial if discussions became more defined and specific regarding the actual objectives we seek.”

These national objectives stem from the International Paris Agreement signed in 2015, which serves as a vague starting point for defining climate actions. The agreement officially commits to “pursuing efforts” to limit warming to 1.5°C, while also striving to keep increases “well below” 2°C. Yet, how do we define “below”?

“The wording of the long-term temperature goal in the Paris Agreement is both a solution and a challenge,” notes Jori Rogelgi from Imperial College London. “It provided common ground for nations to agree upon, but it also allows for considerable interpretation.”

Rogelj worries that if the phrase “down sufficiently” regarding the 2°C limit isn’t clarified soon, there’s a risk that it might be accepted as a new benchmark. Many scenarios projecting 2°C provide only a 50% chance of success, meaning that by targeting this limit, we could potentially overestimate our safety.

To address this uncertainty, Rogelj and Lamboll emphasize that international consensus is crucial for interpreting these terms accurately. They argue that if the Paris Agreement pledges to keep temperatures below 2°C, most people don’t foresee a significant chance of overshooting that promise.

Currently, one model predicts a 66% likelihood of staying below 2°C, while another claims a 90% chance. “People struggle with probabilities,” explains Lambor. “The difference between a 66% and a 90% chance is significant.”

This variation arises from differing assumptions within various scenarios; stricter emission control measures are more likely to remain under the 2°C threshold. The authors argue that identifying peak temperatures—expected to be the highest before mitigation measures cool the atmosphere—better captures the variations among scenarios and helps establish clearer climate goals.

In ongoing research, Rogelj and Lamboll explored four 2°C climate model scenarios and calculated the median peak temperatures necessary to remain below 2°C with 66%, 83%, and 90% probabilities, respectively. For instance, one scenario suggests that to maintain a 66% chance of staying under the limit, the temperature should peak at approximately 1.83°C, while a 90% success rate necessitates a peak of 1.54°C.

When examining all models, the authors argue that it’s essential to promise a temperature significantly below 2°C to achieve an 83% chance of remaining under that threshold.

Other researchers echo this conclusion. Gottfried Kirchengast and Moritz Pichler from Graz University in Austria recently suggested a limit of 1.7°C, aligning with predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and offering an 83% chance of staying below 2°C—indicating that 1.7°C is the peak temperature cap for “well below 2°C.”

“A 1.5°C threshold serves as a clear guide. Determining 1.7°C will serve as another vital boundary well below 2°C,” observes Kirchengast. This newly established warming threshold will aid policymakers in calculating remaining emission budgets and planning their transition strategies accordingly.

How daunting is this goal? Given current policies, limiting warming to 1.7°C is indeed very ambitious when tracking global warming projected to reach 2.6°C by the century’s end; however, it’s not entirely out of reach. The most optimistic scenarios suggest a stabilization at 1.9°C if all nations fully meet their climate commitments, according to recent UN evaluations. To meet a 1.7°C goal, exceeding existing promises is essential.

Yet, even as some scientists propose that “well below” 2°C translates to a peak temperature around 1.7°C, many oppose formalizing targets beyond 1.5°C.

There’s still much we don’t understand about the climate system. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner from the Berlin Institute for Climate Science warns of considerable uncertainty regarding the Earth’s sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions, indicating that the planet might warm more rapidly than anticipated. “We should be cautious not to overestimate our knowledge,” he warns. Setting a specific temperature target “could imply we have a clear trajectory, but that’s not the reality,” he adds.

Instead, Schleussner urges governments to take accountability for failing to meet the 1.5°C target by calculating their “carbon debt” accrued since surpassing that threshold. “Unless we establish accountability for not limiting warming to 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement isn’t achieving its objectives,” he says.

Vulnerable countries, especially small island nations, have fought to cement the 1.5°C target within the Paris Agreement and may resist any attempts to recalibrate global climate ambitions. Ilana Seid, the UN Ambassador for Palau and chair of the Small Island Developing States (AOSIS), states that rising sea levels and threatened coral reefs due to warming beyond 1.5°C pose existential threats to her country.

“For AOSIS, the standard is 1.5°C. That’s our unyielding position,” says Seid. “There’s a critical reason we stand firm at 1.5°C…everything else is just noise.”

Natalie Unterstell, a former UN climate negotiator in Brazil now with the climate policy think tank Thalanoa, asserts that shifting towards a global target of warming below 1.7°C “signals to governments and markets that failure is permissible.”

“If you change your goals mid-game, only lobbyists and special interests will benefit. This risks diluting political will, muddling public messaging, and normalizing climate degradation,” she explains. “Presently, new temperature targets create the cognitive dissonance that fossil fuel interests thrive on.”

“The 1.5°C limit isn’t merely symbolic; it represents billions of lives at stake,” states Unterstell. “If anything, this moment demands an escalation of our actions, not a relaxation of our targets.”

Beyond the ethical implications of adopting new global targets, she notes that concretizing 1.7°C will be exceptionally challenging under the UN climate framework, which relies on a rulebook governing the Paris Agreement requiring unanimous support from all over 200 member states—a feat unlikely to be achieved at the upcoming COP30 Summit in Belem, Brazil. However, the Brazilian presidency will face pressure to extract robust climate commitments from polluting nations and address the “ambition gap” between 1.5°C and current warming projections.

But should this discussion be framed as a competition between 1.5°C and a newly proposed, slightly more lenient goal? For Rogelj, the aim of limiting warming to 1.5°C remains a fundamental global target, despite the possible introduction of new temperature thresholds. “The target of 1.5°C continues to exist,” he affirms. “This is because the objective to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit warming to 1.5°C is still intact, even above that level.”

At the conception of the Paris Agreement in 2015, a limit of 1.5°C was seen as ambitious yet attainable. Most climate models have since eroded to the point where they no longer represent a viable path to this goal without “overshooting.” Temperatures have been above 1.5°C for decades, yet technologies such as carbon capture are posited to bring us back below this threshold by century’s end. Clarifying the exact meaning of being “well below 2°C” doesn’t negate the target of 1.5°C but rather establishes a higher bar for warming in a world that overshoots and aims to ultimately revert to that level, according to Rogelj.

Now, the policymakers must ask themselves: if 1.5°C serves as our safety line and 2°C marks the cliff’s edge, just how close should we dare to approach?

Topics:

  • Paris Climate Summit/
  • Carbon emissions

Source: www.newscientist.com

Much of this Century’s Warming May Result from Decreased Air Pollution

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Coal Power Plants Contribute to Cooling via Sulphate Pollution

Frank Hermann/Getty Images

The presence of sulfate air pollution causes clouds to darken and reduces sunlight. This factor could contribute to recent temperature increases beyond just greenhouse gas effects.

“Two-thirds of the global warming observed since 2001 is attributed not to rising CO2 levels, but to decreasing SO2 levels,” says Peter Cox from the University of Exeter, UK.

While some sunlight is reflected and some is absorbed before being released as heat, increased carbon dioxide levels enhance the retention of this heat. This greenhouse effect is a primary driver of global warming, but the albedo, or reflectivity of the planet, significantly influences temperature.

Since 2001, satellite instruments like Ceres have measured sunlight reflection and absorption. These observations reveal a decline in sunlight reflectivity, indicating a darker planet with diminishing albedo, leading to more intense warming.

Factors contributing to this reduced albedo include diminished snow and sea ice as well as fewer clouds. However, Cox and Margaux Marchant’s analysis of Ceres data spanning 2001 to 2019 suggests that the most significant contributor is the darkening of clouds.

Industrial and maritime sulfate emissions are known to enhance the density of cloud droplets, improving their reflectivity. This principle underpins a proposed geoengineering technique called Marine Cloud Brightening. However, recent shifts away from high-sulfur fuels like coal have led to reductions in these emissions.

Thus, Merchant and Cox explored whether the observed loss of cloud brightness is linked to reduced SO2 levels and found correlations. They presented initial findings at the Exeter Climate Forum recently.

These findings are promising, as the accelerated warming trends indicate that some researchers fear the global climate sensitivity (the temperature rise associated with increased atmospheric CO2) could be at the upper range of estimates. While the short-term effects of reduced pollution contribute to warming, this suggests greater warming potential as CO2 emissions rise if cloud darkening results from increased CO2.

“If this darkening signifies a genuine shift in cloud feedback indicating greater sensitivity than previously thought, rather than a mere result of decreased SO2 emissions, it is promising news,” stated Laura Wilcox from the University of Reading, UK, who was not involved in the research.

Wilcox notes limitations in the datasets utilized by Marchant and Cox; for instance, the SO2 contamination data may have changed since their analysis.

Furthermore, two recent studies suggest dimming is largely due to reduced cloud cover, not darker clouds. “The factors behind these recent darkening trends are currently being intensely debated,” she says.

Overall, Wilcox adds that her research supports the view that the recent acceleration of global warming is chiefly driven by reduced air pollution, and this effect is likely to be temporary.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Emergency Measures for Artificial Cooling of the Great Barrier Reef Amidst Warming Surge

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Coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef off the coast of Queensland, Australia

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Researchers stress the urgent need for strategies to artificially provide shade from rising temperatures affecting Australia. This alerts us following recent findings that link changes in transport fuels to an increased risk of coral bleaching.

In recent years, significant sections of barrier reefs have experienced severe bleaching due to rising sea temperatures attributed to climate change.

Adjustments made in 2020 to regulations governing fuel composition have led to additional detriment, according to Robert Ryan from the University of Melbourne. These changes have decreased sulfur dioxide emissions, which are protective pollutants for health, but have also eliminated aerosols that contribute to the cooling of marine clouds over the reefs.

In February 2022, Ryan and his team leveraged computer models to analyze the impacts of cloud cover and solar radiation in relation to fuel emissions over a span of 10 days.

They discovered that emissions at the pre-2020 levels would enhance the local cooling effect of clouds and noted that regulations aimed at reducing sulfate aerosol pollution diminished this cooling effect. Consequently, the new transport fuel regulations led to a rise in sea surface temperatures equivalent to 0.25°C, which created coral bleaching conditions that ranged from 21-40% during the studied period.

“There’s been an 80% reduction in sulfate aerosol transport, likely contributing to conditions that favor coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef,” states Ryan.

Bjørn Samset from the International Climate Research Centre in Oslo, Norway, asserts that this study will help address critical inquiries regarding the effects of reduced aerosol pollution on the surrounding environment. “The local aerosol influences may be more significant than previously considered, and we still have limited understanding of their impacts on ocean heat waves,” he remarks.

However, he cautions that the findings illustrate evident links between air quality and the conditions of clouds around notable reef systems, though they only represent a brief timeframe and are complex compared to other related research.

Ryan is also involved in efforts to devise methods to artificially cool coral reefs using Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB), a climate intervention technology that involves dispersing ocean salt particles into the atmosphere to amplify the cooling effects of marine clouds.

Researchers suggest that given their recent findings, such artificial cooling measures for large barrier reefs may be more crucial than ever. “If changes in sulfate emissions have diminished the brightening effects of ocean clouds, it could be worth reconsidering their reimplementation in targeted programs,” Ryan explains.

Daniel Harrison from Southern Cross University in Australia emphasizes that their findings indicate that MCBs can effectively cool the reef, mirroring the cooling effects seen with past shipping emissions. “This study highlights the real-world implications of ongoing changes,” he adds. “It confirms that it was indeed effective.”

Harrison has secured funding from the UK’s Advanced Research and Innovation Agency for a five-year initiative to test the MCB in the Great Barrier Reef, asserting that MCB “aims to harmonize our efforts to lower emissions.”

On the other hand, some experts remain skeptical, arguing that there is insufficient evidence to confirm the safety and efficacy of intentional MCBs. Terry Hughes from James Cook University in Queensland, Australia, has stated that previous trials of MCB were “not successful” and produced no compelling evidence that it can reduce the local sea temperatures of the reef.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

If CO2 Capture Doesn’t Improve, Climate Warming Could Increase by Another 0.5°C

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Reducing emissions and capturing carbon is essential to limit warming

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The planet must eliminate hundreds of billions of tons of carbon dioxide to keep global temperature rise under 1.5°C this century. Even the less ambitious 2°C targets seem increasingly unattainable without substantial carbon capture and removal (CDR) technologies and urgent emission reductions.

The contentious role of carbon management technologies in meeting climate objectives has been debated for some time. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a degree of carbon management is “inevitable” for reaching zero emissions required to stabilize global temperatures. However, it stresses that the necessary technologies have yet to be validated at the needed scale and emphasizes the risk of providing justifications for continued emissions.

“There’s an ongoing debate among scientists about whether CDR is essential or fundamentally unfeasible,” says Candelaria Bergero from the University of California, Irvine. “Some argue that CDR is unavoidable,” she adds.

To assess what is at stake, Bergero and her research team simulated the potential for global temperature increases to stay below 2°C while analyzing CO2 management across various emission scenarios aligned with the Paris Agreement targets. These scenarios incorporated both technological CDR methods like direct air capture and nature-based solutions such as tree planting, alongside varying carbon capture applications for emissions from power plants and industrial sources.

They determined that failing to capture or remove CO2 could lead to an additional 0.5°C rise in global average temperature by century’s end. Moreover, half of the carbon management predicted in the scenarios could induce about 0.28°C of warming, making it nearly impossible to restrict temperature increases to 1.5°C, even within frameworks that consider violations of that threshold.

While achieving 2°C warming targets might still be feasible without carbon management, researchers found that drastic emission reductions of 16% annually since 2015 are necessary. Such a rapid decrease appears unlikely given the increasing global emissions over the last decade, according to Bergero.

Furthermore, initiatives for scaling up carbon management aren’t progressing swiftly enough. According to Steve Smith at Oxford University, only 40 million tonnes of CO2 are currently captured and stored globally, and only about 1 million tonnes are removed directly each year.

“Like with other emissions reductions, countries frequently discuss ambitious long-term goals, yet lack immediate measures to implement the billions of tons of reductions necessary for these pathways to succeed,” he states.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Antarctic Ocean Ice Loss Accelerates Ocean Warming Beyond Predictions

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Recent Summers Show Antarctic Sea Ice Cover at Unprecedented Lows

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The decline of sea ice around Antarctica has led to a doubling of icebergs calved from the ice sheet and increased spikes in seawater temperatures, exacerbating the effects of heat accumulation in the Southern Ocean.

In recent years, sea ice extent at both poles has sharply decreased. In 2023, the Antarctic winter sea ice area fell 1.55 million square kilometers short of the expected average.

This loss is equivalent to disappearing an ice area nearly 6.5 times larger than the UK. Projections for 2024 suggest similarly low figures, with 2025 also anticipated to experience harsh conditions.

Edward Dodridge from the University of Tasmania and his team are investigating the implications of the long-term reduction of protective buffers provided by Antarctic sea ice.

The researchers discovered that the average temperature in the South Seas has increased by 0.3°C between latitudes 65° and 80° since 2016. Additionally, summer sea ice losses have similarly raised temperatures by 0.3°C.

Alarmingly, the heat from a year with particularly low sea ice does not dissipate by the next year. Instead, it continues to warm the ocean for at least the following three years, resulting in even greater temperature increases than expected, according to Dodridge.

“For some time, we’ve known that summer sea ice loss contributes to ocean warming because ice and its reflective snow cover keep heat at bay,” explains Doddridge.

“The fact that the ocean retains warming effects for three years complicates the consequences of warming in the Southern Ocean.”

Moreover, the dramatic reduction in sea ice may accelerate the loss of inland ice sheets. When sea ice freezes, it dampens the expansion of the South Seas, preventing contact with the ice sheets sitting above Antarctica. Once the protective sea ice barrier disappears, the coastal ice sheets become more susceptible to breaking apart.

The research found that for every additional 100,000 square kilometers of sea ice lost, six more icebergs larger than one square kilometer were formed. “We witnessed double the amount of icebergs at periods of low sea ice,” said Doddridge.

Additionally, the reduction in sea ice significantly impacts species that rely on transferring from the ocean to solid ground for survival. The study indicates that species like the Emperor Penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Crabeater Seal (Lobodon carcinophagus) may face severe challenges.

The scientific investigation in Antarctica is becoming increasingly difficult as the presence of sea ice is crucial for safely resupplying research stations.

Nellie Abram from The Australian National University remarks that “this analysis shows very few positives surrounding the loss of sea ice and its impact on the environment.”

“In years with extremely low sea ice, the Antarctic ecosystem continues to experience effects for years afterward. This isn’t just a one-time event,” Abram asserts. “There are numerous ways this loss of ocean ice influences Antarctic ecosystems.”

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  • Antarctica

Source: www.newscientist.com

The Warming Ocean: Uncovering Unexpected Benefits from Coral Reef Loss

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Satellite perspective of coral reefs in New Caledonia

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The decline of coral reefs might come with unexpected advantages. Research suggests that this deterioration allows the oceans to absorb up to 5% more carbon dioxide by 2100, which may decelerate the buildup of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

“If your primary concern is the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, this could be viewed as a beneficial effect,” states Lester Kwiatkowski from Sorbonne University in Paris, France. However, he cautions that the loss of coral also leads to diminished biodiversity, jeopardizes fisheries, and heightens the vulnerability of coastal regions to rising sea levels.

The extent of global warming is heavily influenced by atmospheric CO2 levels. To date, land and oceans have collectively absorbed around half of the surplus CO2 we’ve emitted. Thus, elements that affect these so-called land or marine carbon sinks can significantly influence future climate scenarios.

Corals are often believed to sequester CO2 from seawater while they develop their calcium carbonate structures. In reality, this process—known as calcification—actually releases CO2 as a net byproduct.

“Corals typically take in inorganic carbon from the ocean in forms like carbonate and bicarbonate ions, converting them into calcium carbonate, which results in CO2 being expelled back into seawater.”

This suggests that if the growth of coral reefs slows or halts, there will be a reduction in CO2 emissions from these reefs, thereby allowing the ocean to absorb more of this greenhouse gas from the atmosphere—a factor currently absent from climate models.

Current studies indicate that coral reef calcification has already declined due to rising ocean temperatures, leading to extensive coral bleaching. Additionally, increased CO2 levels have caused ocean acidification, which complicates the formation of carbonate structures and can even trigger dissolution.

Kwiatkowski and his research team have published estimates detailing how corals are susceptible to warming and ocean acidification. They utilized computer models to project how these changes could affect marine carbon sinks under various emission scenarios. Their findings indicate that by 2100, the ocean may sequester an additional 1-5% more carbon, which could escalate to up to 13% by 2300.

This prediction may be conservative, as Kwiatkowski notes it overlooks additional factors contributing to coral reef degradation, such as overfishing and the spread of coral diseases.

Conversely, the research assumes that corals lack the capacity to adapt or acclimate. Chris Ju judge from the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who was not part of this study, remarks on this perspective.

“If we encounter the worst-case or medium-case outcomes outlined in this study, it portends significant destruction of coral reefs globally,” says Ju judge. “I believe the authors could arrive at different conclusions by considering potential adaptability in corals and other reef organisms under moderate levels of climate change.”

If Kwiatkowski’s team’s projections hold true, the amount of CO2 that leads to a certain degree of warming—the so-called carbon budget—may actually be larger than current estimates.

“Even if we’re facing dire outcomes, it’s critical to refine our understanding of the carbon budget to ensure its accuracy,” asserts Kwiatkowski.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

The world may surpass 2°C of warming by 2029.

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Greenhouse gas emissions have led to a temperature rise of 1.44°C from pre-industrial levels

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Experts now warn that the world may experience its first year with warming exceeding 2°C by the decade’s end.

Each year, researchers at the Met Office, the UK’s National Weather Service, analyze observational climate data and collaborate with global agencies to forecast the climate for the next five years.

Their projections indicate that by 2029, the average annual temperature could surpass 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a significant and alarming point in the climate crisis.

“Just a few years ago, this seemed implausible,” stated Adam Scaife during a Met Office briefing. He labeled such an occurrence as “entirely unprecedented.”

The objectives of the 2015 Paris Agreement aim to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an additional target of restricting the increase to below 1.5°C. These goals require stability in temperature rise for decades.

Last year marked the initial instance of temperatures exceeding the 1.5°C benchmark, attributed to escalating emissions and strong El Niño conditions. There exists an 86% probability that at least one of the next five years will breach this threshold. Global to 10 Years Climate Update produced by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed this information.

Additionally, there is a 70% probability that the average warming will surpass 1.5°C in the 2025-2029 timeframe, up from a 47% chance in the 2024 report on the 2024-2028 period. Scaife remarked, “These new forecasts imply we are close to experiencing a year with an average increase of 1.5°C being typical.” “These numbers are alarming.”

According to estimates from the WMO/MET office team, there’s about a 1% chance of seeing warming above 2°C. “While it’s a rare event, it’s not impossible,” said Leon Hermanson, during a Met Office update. “It’s not the scenario we want, but it is what science predicts.”

Scaife emphasized that if the average annual temperature exceeds 2°C, a “perfect storm” of elements will likely be necessary. These may include a robust El Niño that drives heat from the Pacific, intensifying warming across Eurasia, alongside a positive Arctic oscillation.

However, despite the currently low odds, the likelihood of experiencing a 2°C year is projected to rise sharply over the coming years unless there is a marked decrease in greenhouse gas emissions.

It has only been a decade since the Met Office and WMO first affirmed the potential for temperatures to exceed 1.5°C. At present, the world is perilously close to breaching this threshold, with the report estimating that the long-term average temperature is currently 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels.

“Where we stood at 1.5°C back in 2015 is now where we find ourselves at 2°C,” remarked Hermanson. “If current trends continue, that probability will increase rapidly.”

Chris Hewitt of the WMO stated that there remains a chance to avert the direst consequences of climate change. “Every fraction of a degree matters,” he emphasized, pointing out the need for drastic emission reductions to approach the 1.5°C target.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Even with Global Warming Capped at 1.5°C, Sea Levels Will Surge Quickly

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Rising seas pose a significant threat to coastal cities.

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A recent review of the latest scientific data indicates that capping global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels won’t halt sea level rise for centuries to come.

“There seems to be a widespread belief that reaching 1.5°C will solve all our problems,” explained Chris Stokes from Durham University, UK. “While it should certainly be our goal, it won’t prevent sea level rise caused by the melting ice sheets.”

At present, global warming is on track for approximately 2.9°C by 2100, noted Jonathan Bamber from the University of Bristol, UK. “In terms of long-term impacts, we’re looking at a potential sea level rise of over 12 meters,” he stated.

Stokes, Bamber, and their colleagues have compiled data from satellite observations of ice loss and rising sea levels over the last three decades, historical data from warm periods, and satellite insights from models of ice sheets.

Older models that fail to incorporate crucial processes suggest that ice sheets take a significant amount of time to respond to warming, according to Bamber. However, satellite data indicates that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are reacting much more swiftly.

“The data presents a very different narrative,” Bamber remarked. “The mass loss observed in Greenland is astonishing and truly unprecedented compared to model predictions.”

Both Greenland and West Antarctica are not only losing ice, but their rates of loss are increasing, said Stokes. “And this is occurring with just 1.2 degrees of warming,” he pointed out. “The notion that limiting warming to 1.5°C would resolve this is misleading.”

Research on previous warm spells over the past three million years reveals that sea levels were significantly higher during those times, as stated by Stokes.

The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2021, forecasts a sea level rise of 1 to 2 meters over the coming centuries if global temperature rise is curtailed to 1.5°C, according to Stokes.

“We are pushing these projections forward,” he said. “It’s becoming evident that we are witnessing some of the worst-case scenarios manifesting right before us, based on mass balance satellite data.”

The team estimates that merely mitigating the pace of sea level rise from melting ice sheets to manageable levels will require the average global temperature to remain below 1°C above pre-industrial levels.

While wealthier nations may bolster their coastlines against rising seas, as ocean levels continue to escalate, this becomes more challenging and costly, Bamber warned. “Certain countries simply lack the financial resources for such measures.”

This highlights the urgency of taking action, according to Stokes. “Every fraction of a degree is crucial to the ice sheet,” he stated. “While I may alter certain points and thresholds, it’s vital to recognize that all degrees matter.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Global warming may impact the sensory systems of Marsaby

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Flowers and other plants need to pollinate insects to spread and reproduce. Their bright colours and intense smells attract bumblebees that pollinate them and play an important role in their survival. Without pollination, most fruits, vegetables, flowers and plants would not grow and diversify. Bumblebees eat nectar from flower to flower and collect them to store nutrient-rich pollen. In the process, their abdomen are covered in pollen. Pollen spreads from male flowers to female flowers as they fly between them. However, as global temperatures have risen in recent years, many scientists have noticed that bumblebees struggle to find colorful flowers and plants to pollinate.

This concern allowed a team of German scientists to take a closer look at how excessive heat affects bumblebees. They chose two types of Bumblebee to study: Bombus PascuorumAlso known as Carder Bumblebee Bombus Terrestris LinnaeusAlso known as bufftail bumblebee. These two bee species are common in Germany and most other parts of Europe, making them ideal options for research. Known as the ocean west coast climate, the region is a mild, comfortable summer and cool winter with plenty of rain.

Scientists suggested that heat waves due to climate change could affect how carder and bufftailed bumblebees survive during mild summers. In their study, the researchers exposed bees of both species to four different heat treatments and three different foods designed to replicate the scent of bees in the wild.

Scientists kept the bees in a comfortable, simulated environment a week before treatment. They then removed the individual bees and placed them in environments with different temperatures and humidity. Their goal was to simulate irregular weather phenomena such as drought and extreme heat and observe the bees' ability to find the scent of different flowers.

For each test, the researchers placed individual bees in long glass tubes to observe them. They performed their first treatment at 90% humidity and 104°F (40°C) to make the air very wet and hot. They performed a second treatment under the same humidity and temperature conditions, but added sugar syrup. They again administered a third treatment under the same conditions, but added a 24-hour rest period between heat and access to the sugar syrup. They had their fourth and final treatment at the same temperature, but only 15% humidity.

Scientists then applied the floral scent to Okimen, geraniol and nonnal on special absorbent paper and introduced it to each bee. They used a technique called to observe the electrical activity of bee antennas in response to odors Electrounnography. They explained that this process helps track bumblebee behavior after heat treatment.

Scientists have found that all heat treatments affect how bee antennae responded to the scent of three flowers. Specifically, we found that bufftailed bumblebees' sensory responses to flower scents reduced by up to 29%, while bufftailed bumblebees had a 42% to 81% reduction in their scent detection skills. Of all treatments, they found that the fourth treatment with low humidity had the greatest effect on honeybee sensation.

Scientists have concluded that research like theirs is useful when it is necessary to survive, taking into account the bees' experiences in the natural environment. With this in mind for global pollinators facing climate change, scientists have recommended that future researchers prioritize studying the effects of heat stress on cellular changes in bee antennas.


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Source: sciworthy.com

New research reveals the impact of global warming on the pace of the next ice age

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Glacier Age Earth

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Without human-induced climate change, the Earth could have been on track to enter another ice age within 11,000 years. This long-term prediction of the planet's “natural” climate is based on a new analysis of how orbital shapes and the tilt of their axis combine to change the amount of solar energy reaching Earth.

For millions of years, these orbital oscillations (known as the Milankovich cycle) entered and left the planet during the Ice Age about every 41,000 years. However, over the past 800,000 years, these ice ages, also known as ice age, have only occurred every 100,000 years. The term Ice Age, as it is currently, can be used to refer to whenever there is ice on Earth's poles, but generally refers to a wide range of ice Age periods.

The ambiguity of the record as the ice sheets were willingly retreated meant that it was not possible to explain how trajectory changes were involved in driving this long cycle.

If previous research attempted to link orbital changes to a specific period, such as onset of an ice age, Stephen Barker Cardiff University in England and his colleagues took a new tack. They came back fading during the “glacial age” where they saw the overall pattern of the ice age, also known as ice age. This allowed us to link changes in trajectories with changes in ice, despite the ambiguity of ice records over the past million years.

They discovered that these 100,000-year cycles appear to follow simple rules. For the last 900,000 years, following the most circular phase of the orbit, the planets also tilted towards the Sun, thus causing all interglacial periods after the Earth's axis wobbled at the farthest from the Sun.

This suggests that all three of these aspects of Earth's orbit (known as precession, oblique and eccentricity) are combined to create a 100,000-year glacial cycle, Barker says. “Since 900,000 years ago, this simple rule has predicted all of these major glacial end events, which says it's really very easy to predict,” he says.

Under that rule, the next ice age where you currently live is expected to begin approximately 66,000 years from the year, as there is no impact on greenhouse gas emissions. But that could only be started if there was an ice age before that,” says Barker.

The diagonal and gradual stages of precession that preceded the Holocene suggest that the glaciers are likely to be on track between 4300 and 11 and 100 years from now. We may now live in what would have been the beginning of this next ice age. “Of course, it's just a natural scenario,” says Barker.

More than 1.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide have been released into the atmosphere as the Industrial Revolution is expected to cause sufficient warming to disrupt this long-term glacial cycle.

“The amount we've already put into the atmosphere is so big that it takes hundreds to thousands of years to pull it out through natural processes,” Barker says. However, he says more research is needed to define the planet's future natural climate in a more detailed way.

It states that this is consistent with previous modeling suggesting that anthropogenic emissions can prevent the onset of the next ice age, from dozens to hundreds of thousands of years. Andrei Ganopolsky At the Potsdam Climate Impact Research Institute in Germany.

But he says even at pre-industrial levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, it was high enough to delay the ice sheet advancement by 50,000 years. This is due to the unusually small orbital changes expected in thousands of years and the unpredictable way that Earth responds to those changes.

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  • Climate change/
  • global warming

Source: www.newscientist.com

Is cleaner air fueling global warming more than we thought?

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Air pollution can have a cooling effect on the climate.

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James Hanssen, the most well-known climate scientist, has doubled the impact on the climate of air pollution in the 1980s. I did.

“Humanity made bad transactions when using aerosol to offset almost half of greenhouse gas warming. Briefing The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network is hosting.

However, other researchers say that this conclusion is based on unstable foundation, but it is not yet known how much reduction in air pollution has contributed to global warming. Hansen's conclusion states that “it is floating around the top of what is plausible.” Michael Diamond Florida State University is not involved in research.

The recorded spike of the global average temperature in 2023 and 2024 has spured the debate on whether the pace of global warming is accelerating faster than expected. The temperature of the greenhouse gas and the global warming of the Pacific Ocean have increased the majority of the temperature, but other unknown contributors have raised higher temperatures than they can explain only by these factors.

Hansen and his colleagues Before The acceleration speed has been accelerated as air pollution decreases. Currently, they are providing new analysis that claims that a decrease in air pollution can explain the temperature of temperature in the past two years. Both air pollution aerosol reflects sunlight directly from the earth and affects the reflection characteristics of the clouds. Changes in the cover of the clouds are also related to heat.

Researchers are particularly focused on the effects of 2020 regulations that reduce harmful sulfur used in transport fuel. Sudden deterioration of air pollution against the ocean provides an experimental unintended experiment and can make the aerosol's impact on the climate more accurately.

Hansen and his colleagues looked at the busy Pacific transport corridor, estimated this effect, and measured the change in solar radiation absorbed by planets in these regions as air pollution decreased. From this, they estimate that the decline in transportation aerosol has increased the heat reaching the earth by 0.5 watts per square meter. This is almost the same as the global warming effect of the world's 10 years of today's level.

They discovered that additional warming was enough to explain the unknown heat seen in the past two years. But its meaning is wider. That also means that the cooling effect of air pollution hides the total range of the global warming effect of greenhouse gases. In other words, the warming, which has been experienced so far, does not have a complete impact on our emissions.

Hansen and his colleagues warn that this means that the climate is much more sensitive than the level of greenhouse gas levels. As a result, they argue that the world is approaching the climate turning point, which is approaching more quickly, such as the deceleration of the main Atlantic current and the collapse of the Southwest Pole. To fight this, they say they need to be more serious about how to cool the planet with interventions like Solaragio Engineering.

However, 0.5 watts per square meter at the core of the new analysis are much higher than other estimated values ​​of the changes in shipping emissions. Tianle yuan In Maryland University Boltimore County. But he says it is not completely unbelievable.

Gabin Schmidt This number is “very” because NASA assumes that all changes in the absorbed sunlight are due to changes in the transport aerosol, rather than other changes such as air pollution and natural fluctuations from China. It is said that it is overestimation.

Changes in aerosol may not be necessary to explain the temperature spike in 2023. SHIV PRIYAM Raghuraman At the Illinois University Urban Champag School -he found that it could be explained before Change of Pacific temperature Alone. He says that a lot of work is needed to adjust the various estimated values ​​of the aerosol's global warming effect.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

2024 to surpass global warming benchmarks as hottest year on record

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Scientists announced on Friday that the world has experienced the first full year with global temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius (34.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Agency (C3S) confirmed this milestone, attributing it to climate change causing global temperatures to rise to unprecedented levels for modern humans.

C3S director Carlo Buontempo described the trajectory as remarkable, with every month in 2024 being either the warmest or second warmest on record.

The average global temperature in 2024, according to C3S, is projected to be 1.6 degrees Celsius (34 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the pre-industrial period from 1850-1900, prior to significant CO2-emitting fossil fuel usage.

Last year marked the hottest year on record, and the past decade has consistently ranked among the warmest.

While the Met Office anticipates average temperatures in 2024 surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius, they estimate a slightly lower average of 1.53 degrees Celsius (34.75 degrees Fahrenheit). US climate data for 2024 is also set to be released on Friday.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments have committed to preventing average temperatures from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid severe climate disasters.

Despite reaching the first year above 1.5°C, C3S believes there is still an opportunity to alter this trajectory and work towards meeting the Paris Agreement goals to curb rising emissions.

In 2024, a woman pours water drop by drop into a bucket after drawing water from a well in a village in Zimbabwe.
Jekesai Nikizana/AFP – Getty Images File

The impacts of climate change are being felt across all continents, affecting populations from wealthy to impoverished nations.

Wildfires in California, devastating fires in Bolivia and Venezuela, heavy rains in Nepal, Sudan, and Spain, and fatal heatwaves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia were all experienced in 2024.

Climate change is intensifying storms and heavy rains due to increased atmospheric heat retention and moisture levels, with water vapor reaching record highs in 2024.

Despite escalating costs from these disasters, some countries are weakening in their commitment to emission control measures.

Incoming US President Donald Trump has dismissed scientific consensus on man-made climate change and its hazardous consequences, despite the country experiencing numerous billion-dollar climate disasters in 2024.

Flooded roads in New Port Richey as Florida looks to recover from Hurricane Milton in October 2024.
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Chukwumerije Okereke, a global climate governance professor, emphasizes that the 1.5 degree temperature surpass should serve as a wakeup call for key political figures to take action.

Despite ongoing warnings from scientists, many countries are failing to meet their responsibilities, Okereke added.

Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere hit a record high of 422 ppm in 2024, according to C3S.

Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist, anticipates that 2025 will be among the hottest on record, but unlikely to top the rankings.

As anthropogenic emissions remain a primary driver of climate warming, the transition from El Niño to cooler La Niña conditions is expected to moderate temperatures moving forward.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Confirmed: Global Warming to Exceed 1.5℃ Limit in 2024

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The sun sets on a hot day in London in July 2024.

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Hopes for keeping global warming below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels have all but disappeared after new data confirms that 2024 will be the first calendar year in which average temperatures exceeded that threshold.

Last year was the hottest year in human history, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is expected to issue its latest stark warning later today that humans are pushing the Earth’s climate into uncharted territory.

Officials are also expected to confirm that this year’s average global temperature exceeded pre-industrial standards by 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time, breaking the threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

The WMO assessment is calculated using global average temperatures across six datasets and uses the period 1850-1900 to provide a pre-industrial baseline. Temperature datasets collected by different agencies and agencies around the world vary slightly, mainly due to differences in how ocean temperatures are measured and analyzed over the decades. Some of these datasets fall just below the 1.5°C mark. new scientist I understand, but others are much better.

The Met Office predicts average temperatures in 2024 to be 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, with a margin of error of 0.08°C. This is 0.07°C higher than the previous warmest year on record, in 2023. Meanwhile, according to the European Union’s climate change service Copernicus, temperatures in 2024 will be 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than before the industrial revolution and 0.12 degrees Celsius higher than the record set in 2023.

Scientists agree that the main causes of rising temperatures are continued human-induced climate change and El Niño patterns, which tend to push up global temperatures. But the scale and persistence of the heat has shocked many experts, who had predicted that temperatures would drop once El Niño ended in May 2024. Instead, Temperatures remained at record levels throughout the remainder of the year.

The world’s oceans are the most affected, with sea surface temperatures remaining at record levels through most of 2024, wreaking havoc on marine ecosystems. The year also saw no shortage of extreme weather events on the ground, including intense heatwaves, plummeting polar ice, deadly floods, and out-of-control wildfires. “This year was a year in which the effects of climate change were felt across the planet,” he says. david kingformer Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government and founder of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.

Technically, the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5°C is calculated using a 20-year average, so even just one year above the threshold does not constitute a formal violation of the goal. It is not meant to be shown. But given the pace of warming in recent years, many scientists say the long-term Paris goal is no longer achievable.

At the press conference on January 9th, Samantha Burgess Professor Copernicus told reporters that it would probably be impossible to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. “There is an extremely high possibility that the long-term average temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius and the upper limit of the Paris Agreement,” he said.

duochan from the University of Southampton in the UK is helping develop a new global dataset, DCENT, which he says uses cutting-edge technology to provide a more accurate historical picture of warming levels. It is said that a baseline is being generated. Although not included in WMO’s calculations, this new data set suggests global average temperatures in 2024 were 1.66°C above pre-industrial levels, he said.

As a result, Chan also believes that the 1.5°C target is probably no longer achievable. “We need to prepare for the broader future, and 1.5°C is not the only target we need to aim for,” he says. But he stressed that this is also an important time to be even more ambitious in reducing emissions. “It’s too early to give up,” he says.

The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. There are early signs that global sea surface temperatures are finally starting to fall to expected levels. “This is a good sign that at least heat is dissipating from the ocean surface,” Burgess said. Meanwhile, after months of anticipation, La Niña phenomenon finally occurs near the Pacific equatorThis should reduce global temperatures until 2025.

But Chan cautions that if temperatures follow the pattern of past El Niño events, the world could have experienced a gradual change in warming. “Every time we have a major El Niño event… we are basically taking global warming to a new level,” he said, adding that 2024 could be the first time in years that average temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. It suggests that there is.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Newer, more fuel-efficient jets could actually worsen global warming compared to older aircraft

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Contrails are clouds formed when water vapor condenses on the soot emitted by jet engines.

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Planes flying at higher altitudes create longer-lasting vapor trails that could cause more global warming. Because private jets and modern fuel-efficient jetliners fly at higher altitudes than other commercial airliners, these aircraft may be causing even more warming than previously thought.

The findings could help airlines decide which routes to fly to minimise contrails, he said. Edward Gryspeerdt “If we could predict the areas in the atmosphere where contrails will form accurately enough, we could fly planes around them to reduce this effect,” say researchers from Imperial College London.

In some conditions, soot particles emitted by jet engines can spew ice particles in the aircraft's wake, forming clouds called contrails, which contribute to the overall warming effect. It is estimated that half of the warming effect from aviation is due to contrails, rather than carbon dioxide emissions.

How long a contrail lasts determines how much warming it causes, but persistence is difficult to study. Gryspeerdt and his team combined flight data and satellite observations to match contrails to specific aircraft and examine how the type of aircraft is related to persistence.

Previously, studies had been done manually and only on a small scale. But using artificial intelligence, the team was able to analyze 64,000 flights. They found that private jets and other fuel-efficient jetliners, which typically cruise at altitudes of about 12 kilometers (38,000 feet), one kilometer higher than other planes, are more likely to produce longer-lasting contrails. “That was unexpected,” Grys-Pierto says.

Not all soot particles emitted by aircraft turn into ice particles, he said: The team thinks that as planes fly higher, a higher proportion of soot particles become ice seeds, but the overall size of the ice particles gets smaller.

Because the tiny ice particles fall slower, they fall into areas where the air is warmer, where it takes longer for the ice particles to sublimate back into water vapor, meaning the contrails linger longer and cause even more warming.

But the team can't say exactly how much warming contrails cause because the characteristics of high-altitude contrails are slightly different, so it's unclear whether the additional warming caused by contrails lasting longer exceeds the warming avoided by modern planes' lower fuel burn.

What's clear is that the impact of private jets has been underestimated: “The climate impact per passenger is much larger than we thought,” Griespeerdt says.

Because contrails are more visible over oceans and the researchers only had data from a single geostationary satellite, they only looked at flights over the western Atlantic around Bermuda.

Gryspeerdt said the findings may not apply to flights further north, such as over Greenland or Iceland, because the air at high altitudes is drier and contrails are less likely to form.

“This study highlights that high-altitude aircraft have a significant climate impact beyond carbon dioxide, mainly due to the persistent contrails they create,” said Christina Hentz of the European environmental group Transport and Environment.

High altitudes are primarily used for long-distance flights, which are excluded from European Union plans to reduce non-carbon-dioxide warming, and this shows the importance of switching to fuels that produce fewer soot particles, Hentz said.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Study finds that the Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate

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Earth’s Speed It’s getting warmer 2023 is the highest on record, beating last year’s astonishing 92%. Record-breaking heatwave Leading scientists have calculated that the cause is human.

A group of 57 scientists from around the world used UN-approved methods to investigate what’s behind it. Last year’s heatwaveThey said that even if the rate of warming has increased, they found no evidence of a significant acceleration of human-induced climate change beyond increased burning of fossil fuels.

Last year’s record temperatures were so extraordinary that scientists have been debating what’s behind the spike, whether climate change is accelerating or if other factors are at play.

“When we see the world accelerating or going through a major tipping point, things aren’t happening,” said Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds and lead author of the study. “Temperatures are rising and things are getting worse exactly as we predicted.”

A person sprays water at passersby on a hot summer day in Karachi, Pakistan on May 30, 2024.
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This can mostly be explained by the buildup of carbon dioxide from increased fossil fuel use, he and his co-authors said.

Last year’s warming rate was 0.26C (0.47F) per decade, up from 0.25C (0.45F) the year before. Forster said that’s not a huge difference, but this year’s rate is the highest on record.

Still, outside scientists said the report paints a more alarming picture than ever before.

“While whether or not to tackle climate is a politically contentious issue, this report should remind people that it is actually a fundamentally life-saving choice,” said Andrea Dutton, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin who was not part of the international research team. “To me, that’s something worth fighting for.”

Ocean Beach in San Francisco during a heat wave warning in California on June 4, 2024.
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The authors, who formed to provide an annual scientific update between major UN scientific assessments every seven to eight years, concluded that last year’s temperature was 1.43 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 average, of which 1.31 degrees was due to human activities. The remaining 8 percent of warming was Mainly due to El NiñoThese include natural, temporary warming in the central Pacific Ocean that changes weather around the world, as well as unusual warming along the Atlantic Ocean and other weather randomness.

Looking at longer time frames — decade-by-decade, which scientists prefer over annual periods — the world has warmed about 1.19 degrees Celsius (2.14 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the report said. Earth System Science Data Journal found.

The report also says that if the world continues to burn coal, oil and natural gas, the planet is likely to reach a point within four and a half years where it will become unavoidable to cross internationally accepted warming thresholds. 1.5℃ (2.7℃) ).

Students experience extreme heat at an elementary school in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, on May 7, 2024.
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This is consistent with previous studies that project that if emissions trajectory remains unchanged, the planet will reach at least 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by early 2029. While reaching 1.5 degrees may be years away, it seems inevitable once all the carbon is used, Forster said.

Scientists say that going over 1.5 degrees won’t mean the end of the world or humanity, but it will be pretty dire. Past UN Studies Large-scale changes to Earth’s ecosystems are expected to become more likely with a warming of between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius, ultimately resulting in the loss of the planet’s coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, plant and animal species, as well as more extreme and life-threatening weather events.

Last year’s temperature rise wasn’t just a minor spike — September was particularly unusual, said study co-author Sonia Seneviratne, head of the land climate dynamics department at ETH Zurich in Switzerland.

A caged howler monkey receives treatment during a heatwave in Cunduacan, Mexico, on May 24, 2024. The heat was so severe that the monkey fell from a tree and died.
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Seneviratne said this year was at the higher end of the range but within expectations.

“If there was an acceleration, it would be even worse, perhaps a worst-case scenario, where the world would reach a tipping point,” Seneviratne said. “But what’s happening now is already very bad, and we’re already seeing big impacts. We’re in the middle of a crisis.”

Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan’s School of Environmental Studies, and Zeke Hausfather, a global climate scientist at the University of Berkeley, neither of whom worked on the study, said they still see an acceleration in warming, which Hausfather noted is much faster than the 0.18 degrees Celsius (0.32 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade that occurred from 1970 to 2010.

Medical workers treat a dehydrated patient in Austin, Texas, 2023.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images file

The scientists Big increase in SeptemberHausfather called that “staggering.” Wednesday’s report didn’t find enough warming from other potential causes. It said that while reduced sulfur pollution from ships had some cooling effect on the atmosphere, that was offset last year by carbon particles released into the atmosphere by Canadian wildfires.

The report also noted that undersea volcanoes, which released huge amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere, also spewed cooling particles, with the two forces roughly cancelling each other out.

“The future is in our hands,” said Katherine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University and chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy. “It’s up to us, humans, not physicists, to decide how fast and how much the Earth will warm.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

English oaks are resilient to warming temperatures, whereas other trees may falter

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English oak trees may be more tolerant of warm climates than other species

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English oak trees are expected to form the basis of future reforestation projects and timber plantations in Europe, as one of the only native species flexible enough to withstand the rapid climate change expected in the next century. It will be done.

European forests are a mix of different tree species, all of which have been able to withstand local climate fluctuations for hundreds of years.

But climate change means that trees planted today, for example for tree plantations and timber plantations, must be able to withstand both current conditions and those of a warmer world in 2100.

Johannes Wessely Professors at the University of Vienna in Austria studied 69 of Europe's most common tree species to assess how well they meet this challenge.

English oak (Quercus serrata) is one of the only species assessed as suitable to thrive under current and future conditions across many regions, Wesley says. Importantly, he says, English oak is “very important for timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity” and is suitable for all types of reforestation projects across Europe.

However, European beech (Beech), you will have a hard time. Many places where European beech was planted and would grow today will be unsuitable later this century, but many areas where beech could grow later this century would be climatically unsuitable today. Research has revealed this.

Overall, the researchers found that depending on the rate of climate change, the average number of tree species per square kilometer that can survive continuously until 2100 could fall by a third to half. discovered.

This means that some forests in Europe consist of only a few tree species and may lack the diversity and resilience of mixed forests.

Wessely said the discovery means “we should be very careful about what we plant today, because it will shape our future forests and their future.”

He suggests that conservationists may even need to replant woodlands with fresh species later this century to ensure that forests can thrive beyond 2100.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Report states Europe is experiencing the greatest rate of warming among all continents

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Europe is the continent experiencing the most rapid increase in temperature, with its temperatures rising at approximately twice the global average, as reported by two top climate watchdogs on Monday. This raises concerns about human health, glacier melting, and the impact on economic activity.

The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations and the European Union’s climate change agency Copernicus jointly reported that the African continent has the potential to transition to renewable resources like wind, solar, and hydropower in response to the effects of climate change. There is an opportunity to develop specific strategies to accelerate action on climate change.

Last year, the European Climate Report stated that the continent generated 43% of its electricity from renewable sources, up from 36% the previous year. In Europe, more energy was produced from renewables than fossil fuels for the second consecutive year.

According to the report, the latest five-year average temperature shows Europe to be currently 2.3 degrees Celsius (4.1 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, compared to the global temperature being 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer. This is just below the target set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Firefighters and volunteers extinguish a burning field during a forest fire in Salonida, Greece, July 17, 2023.
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“Europe has continued to face rising temperatures and extreme weather events this year, including heat stress from record temperatures, wildfires, heatwaves, glacier ice loss, and inadequate snowfall,” said Elisabeth Hamdoush, Deputy Division Chief of the EU Executive Director Copernicus.

This report complements the World Meteorological Organization’s flagship State of the World Climate Report, which has been published annually for 30 years and this year issued a “Red Alert” warning that the world is not taking sufficient action to combat the effects of global warming.

In March, Copernicus reported achieving a record for 10 consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures. According to a European report, the average sea surface temperature across oceans in Europe is expected to reach its highest annual level in 2023.

This year’s European report focuses on the impact of high temperatures on human health, noting a rise in heat-related deaths across the continent. Over 150 lives were directly lost due to storms, floods, and wildfires last year.

Economic losses related to weather and climate in 2023 are estimated to exceed 13.4 billion euros (around $14.3 billion).

Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus, stated, “In 2023, hundreds of thousands of people will be affected by extreme weather events causing significant damage at a continental level, with an estimated cost of at least tens of billions of euros.” “It’s been done,” he said.

The report highlights that extreme weather conditions have led to heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. High temperatures are causing the reduction of glaciers on continents, including the Alps, where about 10% of glaciers have been lost over the past two years. Glacier ice has been declining.

Nevertheless, the authors of the report pointed out some exceptions, such as Scandinavia and Iceland, where temperatures were below average despite above-average mercury concentrations across much of the continent.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

‘Climate Crisis: Record-breaking Global Warming in 2023’

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Marine heat waves will occur around the world in 2023

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According to the latest statistics from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2023 was not only the hottest year on record, but also other signs of global warming, including rising sea levels, ocean heating, loss of Antarctic sea ice, and receding glaciers. Many important indicators also broke records. Part of the Global Climate Report.

“We have never been this close to reaching the 1.5°C lower limit of the Paris Climate Agreement, even if it is temporary at the moment,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Sauro said in a press release. “The WMO community is sounding an emergency alert to the world.”

A range of glaciers around the world, which are monitored to show what's happening to all glaciers, have seen the biggest ice loss since records began in 1950, according to preliminary data. The most extreme melting was in Europe and western North America.

Since satellite monitoring began in 1993, the rate of sea level rise has more than doubled. The global average sea level rise rate from 2014 to 2023 was more than twice the rate from 1993 to 2002.

This is due not only to the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, but also to the thermal expansion of the oceans as temperatures rise. The ocean-wide heat content will reach a new high in 2023, and the rate of warming has increased over the past two decades.

On average, on any given day in 2023, almost a third of the world's oceans were affected by a marine heatwave. More than 90% experienced heat wave conditions throughout the year.

At the end of 2023, an extreme marine heatwave occurred across the North Atlantic, with water temperatures 3 degrees Celsius above average. Recent studies show that ocean heatwaves are causing major changes in ecosystems, and thousands of whales may have starved to death.

Antarctic sea ice extent is the lowest on record, with the southern hemisphere's maximum area at the end of winter being 1 million square kilometers below the previous record minimum. Its area is larger than France and Germany combined.

Heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, exacerbated by global warming, have also affected millions of lives and caused economic losses amounting to billions of dollars, according to a WMO report. That's what it means.

For example, Hurricane Otis strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than a day. According to reports, more than 50 people were killed in Mexico and up to $16 billion in damage was caused. US National Hurricane Center Report.

Overall, 2023 was the warmest year on record, with global average surface temperatures 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, the WMO report confirms.

So far, 2024 has been even hotter than 2023, with January and February setting new records, according to the EU's Copernicus climate monitoring service.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Using underwater sounds to help coral reefs fight global warming

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2023 was the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. This included oceans around the world, where records fell like dominoes. Last week, about 5,000 scientists gathered in New Orleans for the American Geophysical Union’s biennial marine science conference. Environmental reporter James Dineen was there to take the temperatures of researchers who have been observing changes occurring in the ocean. You can listen to his segment around 05:00 in the embedded player or read the transcript below.

transcript

James Dineen: There was one thing on everyone’s mind at the world’s largest gathering of marine scientists. It’s heat.

England: “Warming over the past few decades, especially in 2023, is sweeping the sector.”

James: Matthew England is an oceanographer at the University of New South Wales in Australia. He was one of thousands of marine scientists who gathered in New Orleans to discuss the latest research on what’s happening in the ocean.

There will be presentations on everything from new species of octopus to robot flying fish. However, rising temperatures are gaining attention.

England: “The burning of fossil fuels, the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we know that it is trapped heat, and we know that more than 90 per cent of it escapes into the ocean. I know.”

Last year’s average sea surface temperature broke previous records, rising about 0.2 degrees Celsius above 2022 levels. The amount of heat in the ocean at a depth of 2,000 meters also broke a new record. Then, an abnormal marine heat wave occurred from the Atlantic Ocean to the Sea of Japan.

England: “This was the first year on record where it was difficult to find waters that were not warmer than average.”

Researchers here are working to understand the causes and consequences of that fever.

Let’s consider the mystery of the extent of sea ice in Antarctica. It was surprisingly strong until 2016, but it declined sharply that year. The record low was set again in 2022, but then again in 2023 when the Antarctic winter ice did not recover.

But perhaps the most obvious victim of 2023 temperatures was coral reefs. Large areas of coral, especially around the Florida Keys in the Gulf of Mexico, bleached and died.

Ian Enox of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration studies coral reefs in the Keys. He says seeing so many corals die was a painful experience, but it only drove home the urgency for action.

Enoch: “Some people will see this and feel downtrodden. And I’ve seen people come together and be motivated to actually do something meaningful and be able to confront this issue head on. I’ve seen the exact opposite situation.”

Amy Aprile of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts is working on different approaches to restoring coral ecosystems. There are many ideas. But one of her new approaches her team is working on is underwater use. sound.

Apryl: Sound is a basic signal used by coral reef organisms. We understand that it is part of their communication strategy and what they rely on to create a healthy environment. ”

In tests on coral reefs in the Virgin Islands, researchers found that broadcasting underwater recordings of healthy coral reef ecosystems increased the rate at which coral larvae attached to the reef. This could help make coral restoration more effective in the face of rising temperatures.

Apryl: This year has been unprecedented. But the thing that sticks with me and keeps me optimistic is that we’re just getting started and we’re just scratching the surface in putting these solutions into action.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

New NASA Satellite Launches to Study Warming Oceans and Atmosphere

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The newest weather satellite of NASA was launched into orbit on Thursday, providing unprecedented details of the world’s oceans and atmosphere.

SpaceX launched its $948 million Pace satellite before dawn, sending its Falcon rocket south across the Atlantic Ocean to achieve a rare polar orbit.

The satellite will spend at least three years studying the ocean and atmosphere 420 miles (676 kilometers) above the Earth. Two scientific instruments scan the Earth every day. The third instrument takes monthly measurements.

The PACE (Plankton, Aerosols, Clouds, Marine Ecosystems) satellite will separate from a SpaceX rocket in orbit on Thursday.NASA (via AP)

“It will be an unprecedented view of our home planet,” said project scientist Jeremy Wardell.

The observations will help scientists better forecast hurricanes and other severe weather, better understand how the Earth is changing as temperatures rise, and better predict when harmful algae blooms will occur.

NASA already has more than 20 Earth observation satellites and instruments in orbit. But Pace's findings should provide better insight into how atmospheric aerosols, such as pollutants and volcanic ash, interact with marine life such as algae and plankton.

“The pace will give us another dimension” to what other satellites observe, said Karen St. Germain, NASA's director of Earth Sciences.

PACE (short for Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem) is the most advanced mission ever launched to study marine biology.

NASA and SpaceX engineers launched NASA's PACE (Plankton, Aerosols, Clouds, and Ocean Ecosystems) spacecraft into SpaceX's Falcon 9 spacecraft on January 30 at the AstroTech Space Operations Facility near Kennedy Space Center in Florida. It is encapsulated in the payload fairing. Denny Henry/NASA (via AP)

Current Earth observation satellites can see in seven or eight colors, Werdel said. Pace displays 200 colors, allowing scientists to identify types of algae in the ocean and particles in the air.

Scientists expect to start collecting data within a month or two.

NASA is working with India to develop another advanced Earth observation satellite scheduled to launch this year. The project, named Nisar, will use radar to measure the effects of rising temperatures on the surfaces of glaciers and other melting ice.

NASA's Pace program survived despite efforts by the Trump administration to cancel it.

“It's been a long and strange journey, as they say,” Werdel said before the launch.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

It is possible that global temperatures surpassed 1.5°C of warming a decade ago.

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Activists participating in COP28 climate change conference to be held in Dubai in December 2023

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The 1.5°C limit was exceeded in 2010 or 2011, and the world is already 1.8°C warmer than it was before the industrial revolution, according to researchers using sponges to find out how seawater and air temperatures in the Caribbean have changed through 2018. The researchers who investigated this claim. Past 300 years.

“The increase in Earth's average surface temperature was 0.5 degrees Celsius greater than currently accepted estimates.” Malcolm McCulloch at the University of Western Australia. “What our research shows is that global warming scenarios are 10 years away, or even further.”

But other climate scientists argue that data from a single region is not a reliable way to understand past global temperatures.

The 2015 Paris Agreement called on countries to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but it did not define exactly what this meant. So climate scientists compiling the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report defined it as the average temperature from 1850 to 1900.

By this time, the Earth had already begun to warm as a result of emissions from burning fossil fuels. However, because there were few temperature measurements before 1850, there is great uncertainty about how much warming was caused by fossil fuels during the early industrial era. Therefore, choosing 1850–1900 as the baseline was pragmatic.

But McCulloch and his colleagues think they have discovered exactly what fossil fuel-induced warming was early on after analyzing samples of very long-lived sponges (Ceratoporella nicolsoni) forms a calcium carbonate skeleton.

The 10-centimeter-wide corpora cavernosa could be about 400 years old, team members say amos winter at Indiana State University. “These sponges grow very slowly.”

The sponges were collected by divers at depths of 33 to 91 meters off the coast of Puerto Rico. Although the original goal was to study the ocean's pH in the past, the researchers also measured the ratio of strontium to calcium, which varied with water temperature when calcium carbonate was formed.

Researchers noticed a close correlation between temperatures “recorded” by sponges and the average surface temperature of the Earth measured by instruments, especially after 1960, when measurements became more reliable. That means there is.

“This is kind of a serendipitous discovery, but the connection is very strong,” McCulloch says. “They are changing proportionately to the world average. The main differences occur when instrumental records are the poorest.”

The researchers therefore calculated the average global temperature before the industrial revolution back to 1,700 degrees Celsius, assuming that the sponges accurately reflected this.

The researchers believe their study should be taken into account when assessing whether the IPCC has exceeded the 1.5°C limit. “The bottom line is yes, the IPCC should take this issue seriously,” McCulloch said.

He also thinks climate modelers need to take the findings into account. If previous carbon emissions are causing more warming than thought, the impact of further emissions may be underestimated, he says.

But other climate scientists are far from convinced. “In my view, it would be imprudent to claim that an instrumental record is wrong based on paleocavernoids from one region of the world,” he says. michael man at the University of Pennsylvania. “That doesn't make sense to me. That said, our own early research supports the idea that there was at least another 0.2 degrees Celsius of warming by the late 19th century.”

In fact, anthropogenic warming may have started thousands of years ago. According to the early Anthropocene hypothesis proposed by William Ruddiman The University of Virginia announced that the first farmers' clearing of forests and creation of rice paddies produced enough carbon dioxide and methane to stop the planet from cooling and entering a new ice age.

Recent studies by other researchers have provided increasing evidence to support this hypothesis, but it is still far from being widely accepted.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

New findings on ancient climate analysis suggest that CO2 is contributing to more warming than previously believed

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A diagram of Earth 65 million years ago, when CO2 levels were much higher than today.

Chris Butler/Science Photo Library

Perhaps the most difficult question in climate science. That is, how much global warming does carbon dioxide cause? A new analysis of 66 million years of Earth’s climate history suggests that the Earth is far more sensitive to greenhouse gases than current climate models predict, which could lead to even warmer temperatures in the long term. This means that there is a possibility of further development.

A key factor determining the impact of our emissions on the planet is how much the planet warms in response to the extra CO2 we pump into the atmosphere. This sensitivity is affected by various feedback loops related to clouds, melting ice sheets, and other influences.

One way to measure this sensitivity is to look at how the climate has changed in the past. Gases trapped in ice cores can only take us back about 800,000 years, so to go even further back in time to look at temperatures and CO2 levels in the atmosphere, researchers used proxies. Masu. For example, the density of pores in plant leaves and the isotope levels in the fossil shells of marine organisms change in response to CO2 levels.

However, discrepancies between different proxies have led to an uncertain view of Earth’s ancient climate. Now, an extensive review by a team of over 80 researchers provides a clearer picture. More accurate representation of ancient CO2 levels. “We now have a much clearer picture of what carbon dioxide levels have been in the past,” he says. Berber Henisch He coordinated the project at Columbia University in New York.

This allows us to understand current CO2 levels in the atmosphere alongside the deep past. This indicates that the last time CO2 levels were as consistently high as they are now was about 14 million years ago, and much earlier than that. previous estimate.

By comparing this new CO2 data with temperature records, “we can learn how sensitive the climate has been to changes in carbon dioxide,” Hoenisch says. Current climate models estimate that doubling his CO2 levels in the atmosphere would result in a warming of 1.5°C to 4.5°C. However, the results suggest that the temperature increase is even larger, between 5°C and 8°C.

However, there is a big caveat. This new insight into the history of Earth’s deep climate covers trends over hundreds of thousands of years, rather than the short timescales of decades or centuries that are relevant to humanity today, and therefore It doesn’t tell you what the temperature is likely to be. “It’s a slow cascading effect that slowly kicks in,” Hoenisch says.

The vast time scales covered in this study also mean that details of climate sensitivity cannot be detected. michael man Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania say climate sensitivities may have been different at other times in Earth’s history compared to today, which is likely why the study yielded higher estimates than those based on more recent periods. I think this explains why I got there.

“The bottom line is that the climate sensitivity estimates from this study probably don’t apply to current anthropogenic warming,” Mann says. “Nonetheless, this study confirms a very close relationship between CO2 and global temperatures, highlighting the continuing threat of fossil fuel combustion.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com