In recent years, the popularity of electric vehicles has surged, fueled by a $7,500 tax credit from the federal government aimed at making purchases more affordable.

However, the budget bill unveiled by House Republicans on Monday suggests eliminating this tax credit. This proposal also introduces new limitations on other tax incentives that motivate automakers to invest significant sums into establishing new battery facilities in the United States.

Starting next year, the legislation is set to abolish the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicle buyers, as well as a $4,000 credit applicable to used car and truck acquisitions.

If signed into law, these changes could lead to a spike in electric vehicle sales in the near term, as consumers rush to take advantage of tax credits before they vanish. Nonetheless, analysts predict that sales may drop or slow drastically once the credits are no longer available.

“This will undoubtedly slow down the adoption rate significantly,” remarked Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive.

Cox anticipates that electric vehicles will comprise 10% of all new vehicle sales this year. If Congress does not alter the tax credit, that figure is expected to increase by nearly a third by 2030, according to their estimates.

However, if Congress eliminates the credits, Valdez Streaty projects that electric vehicles could make up only 20-24% of new car sales by 2030.

Eliminating these credits would further financially burden automakers who are already dealing with increased costs stemming from a 25% tariff on imported cars and auto parts established during the Trump administration.

The Republican tax proposals could adversely affect numerous automakers striving to launch new models, particularly General Motors and Ford, both of which have made substantial investments in their manufacturing facilities and supply chains with the goal of producing millions of electric vehicles annually.

GM has inaugurated two battery plants located in Ohio and Tennessee, developed through a joint venture with LG Energy Solution. Ford is currently constructing three battery plants, including one in Michigan, in collaboration with two South Korean firms, SK-ON, in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Both Detroit-based automakers are also investing in mining operations to secure domestic lithium supplies, which is crucial for battery production.

Tesla, the leading electric vehicle seller in the U.S., is also facing challenges. Its sales have decreased in recent months due to consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk, associated with the Trump administration, coupled with the absence of a new affordable model.

However, Tesla enjoys several advantages. While most manufacturers still incur losses on electric vehicles, Tesla has been profitable for over a year, allowing the company to lower prices to stimulate demand if credits are eliminated. Additionally, Tesla relies less on imported components compared to other U.S. manufacturers.

Many large automakers are racing to catch up with Tesla in the electric vehicle landscape, particularly in states with a significant number of Republican lawmakers, by establishing numerous new factories.

Toyota has constructed a battery facility in North Carolina, while Hyundai is set to begin electric vehicle production at its Georgia site, which will also house battery manufacturing. Stellantis, along with its partners, is currently developing two battery plants in Indiana, with the local economies relying on the jobs these plants will create.

Should tax regulations undergo significant changes, automakers may reconsider, scale back, or postpone their plans.

“If the government wishes for the U.S. to effectively compete with China and the rest of the world in the expansive EV sector, as well as encourage GM and Ford to make considerable long-term investments in EV development and domestic production, we must enhance the tax credits instead of causing whiplash,” Valdez Streaty stated.

China dominates global electric vehicle production and is a primary supplier of essential materials for batteries and electric motors, such as processed lithium and rare earth minerals. The elimination of the tax credit would significantly hinder the U.S. automotive industry’s ability to keep pace.

“This could adversely impact our global standing and the competitive capabilities of the U.S. automotive sector,” Valdez Streaty remarked. “It’s likely to slow us down when we are already trailing China.”

Neither Ford nor Stellantis had comments to share, and neither did the policy group, the Automotive Innovation Alliance.

The federal government initially introduced $7,500 in credits during President Barack Obama’s administration, maintaining this incentive throughout President Trump’s first term. These credits were subsequently updated and expanded under the Inflation Reduction Act, enacted by President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

Given the higher costs of electric vehicles compared to traditional combustion engines, such credits have been vital in encouraging consumer purchases.

The credits are applicable to sports utility vehicles and pickups priced under $80,000, as well as sedans priced below $55,000. The vehicle must be assembled in North America, with the battery meeting specifications based on the country of origin for its materials. Additionally, to qualify, individual buyers must earn less than $150,000 per year, while joint filers must earn under $300,000.

Many of these criteria do not apply to leased vehicles. However, tax credits for cars and trucks are typically transferred to leasing companies, which are divisions of automakers. Many leasing firms have passed on their savings to customers, contributing to the notable increase in electric vehicle leases.

According to Valdez Streaty, approximately 595,000 electric vehicles were leased in 2024, a significant rise from roughly 96,000 in 2022, prior to the availability of leasing incentives.