The impact of climate change on food costs: A prediction of rising prices and worsening conditions

Posted on March 21, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Food prices are on the rise

AFP (via Getty Images)

Because of global warming, you are already paying more and more for groceries. And rising temperatures will cause food prices to rise significantly over the next decade.

By 2035, rising temperatures alone are expected to increase global food prices by 0.9 to 3.2 percent each year, according to a study conducted in collaboration with the European Central Bank. This would increase the overall inflation rate by 0.3 to 1.2 percentage points.

“We are often shocked and surprised by the magnitude of these effects,” he says. Maximilian Kotz He mentioned discussions he had with economists during his research at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Abnormal weather due to global warming Increasingly impacting food production around the world And if farmers don't adapt, the losses will become even more severe as the world continues to warm.

To find out how this is affecting food prices, Kotz and his colleagues looked at monthly price data for a variety of goods and services for 121 countries from 1996 to 2021 and the exposure to which those countries were exposed. The weather conditions were compared.

Researchers looked at the correlation between food prices and factors such as average monthly temperatures, temperature fluctuations, droughts and extreme rainfall. They found a strong association between average temperature and food prices a month or so later.

Areas north of 40 degrees latitude, such as New York City, Madrid, and Beijing, experienced warmer-than-average winter temperatures, leading to lower food prices. But not just in the summer, temperatures in other parts of the world have always been above average, causing food prices to rise.

Moreover, the impact on prices is long-lasting. “If prices go up based on one of these shocks, they stay high for at least the rest of the period,” Kotz says.

The study didn't look at why prices have increased, but one possible explanation is that extreme heat is reducing yields, he said. “The vines may be dry when the crop should be harvested.”

Kotz said factors such as extreme rainfall had a smaller impact on food prices than average temperatures. This may be because flooding tends to be localized, whereas above-average temperatures can be very widespread.

Other studies have reached similar conclusions, Kotz said. But his team went a step further and investigated how food prices would change based on increases in average temperatures in climate model projections. Under the team's worst-case emissions scenario, global food inflation due to climate change will exceed 4% per year by 2060. However, the team believes the 2035 prediction is more reliable, as many other factors could have changed by then.

“There are a lot of things that could happen that will change the way the economy responds to climate change,” Kotz said. For example, inflationary pressures would be reduced if farmers adapted their practices to better cope with rising temperatures. But so far, he says, there is no sign that farmers are adapting.

“I think these are realistic predictions. They are based on solid empirical evidence.” Matin Kaim At the University of Bonn, Germany. “We need to recognize the fact that climate change poses new and major challenges to food and nutrition security.”

according to Food Price Index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The cost of food fell in real terms between 1960 and 2000, but has risen since then. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused a massive surge – factors that influence this Protests are occurring in many countries. The index price has since fallen, but remains higher than before the invasion.

Like the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the European Central Bank aims to: keep inflation around 2%. Rising food inflation will make achieving this goal even more difficult, Kotz said.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

The top four discoveries from a significant new UN climate study

Posted on March 20, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recently published a detailed report titled Current status of global climate in 2023, which synthesizes the latest scientific knowledge on climate change from the past year.

This report contains significant findings that shed light on the impact of human-induced climate change on the Earth. If you’re overwhelmed by the idea of reading through lengthy UN reports, fear not! We have highlighted some of the most fascinating and surprising discoveries for you.

1. Switzerland has lost 10 percent of its glaciers in the past two years

Glaciers are vital ecosystems formed when snow solidifies into ice in cold mountain regions. They flow slowly downhill, shaping the landscape as they move. Glaciers play a crucial role in the ecosystem by melting in the summer and nourishing rivers, providing essential water resources globally.

According to the WMO report, the unprecedented glacier loss in 2022-2023, primarily in North America and Europe, marks a record decline. Switzerland, in particular, has witnessed a distressing scenario with a 10 percent reduction in glacier volume over the past two years.

“The planet is warming, and the ice is melting, but seeing parts of the Alps lose 10 percent of their glacier volume in just two years is astonishing,” stated Professor Jonathan Bamber, Director of the Bristol Glaciology Center.

2. On any given day in 2023, a third of the oceans experienced a heatwave.

The record-breaking sea surface temperatures in Florida are just one example of ocean warming trends. The report highlights that a significant portion of the Earth’s stored energy since 1971 resides in the oceans, leading to increased heat content.

In 2023, ocean warming reached its highest level on record, with ocean heat content at a depth of 2,000 meters peaking. This trend is expected to persist for centuries, if not millennia.

As ocean temperatures rise, water expands and contributes to sea level rise. Ocean heatwaves are becoming more frequent, with marine heatwave coverage averaging 32 percent in 2023, compared to 23 percent in 2016.

3. The cost of inaction on climate change could be staggering.

Addressing climate change and adapting to its costs will require substantial investments. The WMO estimates that annual climate finance investments need to increase more than sixfold to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, amounting to nearly $9 trillion by 2030 and an additional $10 trillion by 2050.

However, the report emphasizes that the cost of inaction would far exceed these figures. Failing to take action between 2025 and 2100 could incur a massive cost of $1,266 trillion.

The cost of inaction on climate change will exceed $1,000 trillion by 2100. – Image courtesy of Getty

Dr. David Lippin stressed the urgency of taking action, citing the report’s warning that inaction on climate change is more costly than proactive measures.

“The time to act is now, and the need for action is urgent,” emphasized Dr. Lippin, a professor at the School of Environmental Geography at York University.

4. Antarctic winter sea ice was 1 million km² below the previous record

The vulnerable polar regions experienced unprecedented changes in Antarctica this year. The report revealed that Antarctic sea ice extent hit a record low in February.

While Antarctic sea ice typically peaks around September, it reached a record low this year, falling up to 1 million km² below any previous level recorded – equivalent to the combined area of France and Spain.

Senior Researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Science, Dr. Till Kuhlbrodt, described the findings as alarming, reflecting extreme climate and weather conditions unprecedented in modern records.

Despite these challenges, Professor Tina van de Flierdt, Head of Geosciences and Engineering at Imperial College London, emphasized the importance of immediate action to mitigate the loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet and reduce global emissions.

About our experts

Jonathan Bamber: A physicist specializing in Earth Observation data, particularly on the cryosphere. With over 200 peer-reviewed publications, he is recognized as a leading researcher in his field.

David Lippin: Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography at the University of York, focusing on glacier dynamics and ice sheet research using advanced techniques.

Till Kuhlbrodt: Senior Research Fellow at the University of Reading, leading models to support climate change mitigation efforts. His recent work on sea temperature extremes was published in the American Weather Society Bulletin.

Tina van de Flierdt: Dean of the School of Geosciences and Engineering at Imperial College London, with research interests in paleoceanography, paleoclimate, and Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

Source: www.sciencefocus.com

‘Climate Crisis: Record-breaking Global Warming in 2023’

Posted on March 19, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Marine heat waves will occur around the world in 2023

Matt Cardy/Getty

According to the latest statistics from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2023 was not only the hottest year on record, but also other signs of global warming, including rising sea levels, ocean heating, loss of Antarctic sea ice, and receding glaciers. Many important indicators also broke records. Part of the Global Climate Report.

“We have never been this close to reaching the 1.5°C lower limit of the Paris Climate Agreement, even if it is temporary at the moment,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Sauro said in a press release. “The WMO community is sounding an emergency alert to the world.”

A range of glaciers around the world, which are monitored to show what's happening to all glaciers, have seen the biggest ice loss since records began in 1950, according to preliminary data. The most extreme melting was in Europe and western North America.

Since satellite monitoring began in 1993, the rate of sea level rise has more than doubled. The global average sea level rise rate from 2014 to 2023 was more than twice the rate from 1993 to 2002.

This is due not only to the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, but also to the thermal expansion of the oceans as temperatures rise. The ocean-wide heat content will reach a new high in 2023, and the rate of warming has increased over the past two decades.

On average, on any given day in 2023, almost a third of the world's oceans were affected by a marine heatwave. More than 90% experienced heat wave conditions throughout the year.

At the end of 2023, an extreme marine heatwave occurred across the North Atlantic, with water temperatures 3 degrees Celsius above average. Recent studies show that ocean heatwaves are causing major changes in ecosystems, and thousands of whales may have starved to death.

Antarctic sea ice extent is the lowest on record, with the southern hemisphere's maximum area at the end of winter being 1 million square kilometers below the previous record minimum. Its area is larger than France and Germany combined.

Heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, exacerbated by global warming, have also affected millions of lives and caused economic losses amounting to billions of dollars, according to a WMO report. That's what it means.

For example, Hurricane Otis strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than a day. According to reports, more than 50 people were killed in Mexico and up to $16 billion in damage was caused. US National Hurricane Center Report.

Overall, 2023 was the warmest year on record, with global average surface temperatures 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, the WMO report confirms.

So far, 2024 has been even hotter than 2023, with January and February setting new records, according to the EU's Copernicus climate monitoring service.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Why recycling may not always be the most effective solution for combating climate change

Posted on March 16, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Recycling is not a silver bullet to stop climate destruction. Far from it. Potential Impact – Savings of approximately 11 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) over 30 years. Even if the world recycled more than 80 percent of its municipal waste, that amount would be overshadowed by the greenhouse gases emitted by fossil fuels and industry – a staggering 36.8 gigatons in 2022 alone.

In the UK, it is estimated that recycling 18 million tons of CO₂ annually. This is equivalent to removing five million cars from the road. While promising, it is only a very small fraction of the emissions generated by fossil fuels and industry each year, which are about 200 times greater than those from agriculture and the global fashion industry.

These numbers may be discouraging, but what can an individual do to help?

Reduce, Reuse, Recycle

First and foremost, do not give up on recycling. It is a simple way to reduce landfill waste and slow down the depletion of the earth’s resources.

To put into perspective the impact of recycling, dividing the 18 million tonnes by the UK’s population of 67 million, the average Briton is saving about 269kg of CO₂ per year through recycling.

According to DEFRA, Britons recycled 44% of household waste in 2021. By recycling 100% of household waste, an individual could save up to 610kg per year.

If you truly want to make a difference, focus on making sustainable choices early on in the consumption process. Opt for loose fruits and vegetables, solid detergents, repair and reuse old clothes, and most importantly, buy less.

Emphasize the Reduce and Reuse aspects of the 3R mantra and resort to recycling only when other options are exhausted.

Let’s Start With One Thing

If you feel overwhelmed, start by making one sustainable change at a time. For example, by using a reusable water bottle instead of plastic ones, you can save 20kg of CO₂ per year.

A review of thousands of studies worldwide suggests that changes like taking fewer long-haul flights, using public transport, and improving home energy efficiency are significant in reducing household carbon footprints.

While recycling alone may not be the solution to climate change, it is a step in the right direction. Each individual has the power to make a positive impact.

This article addresses the question posed by Jensen Pitts via email: “Can recycling really make a difference?”

If you have any questions, please email us at: questions@sciencefocus.com or reach out to us via Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram (don’t forget to include your name and location).

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Source: www.sciencefocus.com

Texas faces devastating wildfires amidst climate emergency

Posted on February 29, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Unusually warm temperatures, dry grass, and a sudden strong wind cold front combined to create the conditions for the devastating wildfires that raged through parts of Texas this week.

The winds that sparked wildfires in the Texas Panhandle came at the perfect time for destruction, “like a hurricane hitting land at high tide,” said Texas climatologist John Nielson Gammon. Ta. He added that hot, dry temperatures, which may be promoted by climate change, helped create the conditions for these fires to start.

On Monday, temperatures reached the mid-80s in some parts of the state's arid region and several wildfires began burning.

The next day, arctic air swept in from the north on a severe cold front. Winds on either side of that front could exceed 50 miles per hour, causing flames to roar through the dormant grass, Nielsen-Gammon said. The cold front arrived in the late afternoon when wind speeds were highest and changed direction as it passed, maximizing the rate of fire spread.

It is not clear how the fire started.

Firefighters work at the scene of the Smokehouse Creek Fire near Amarillo in the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday.
Hanazuka Fire Department

“The timing of the weather during the day was probably the worst,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “If wildfires were to occur, these weather patterns would occur.”

The fire spread through the area so quickly that firefighters had little chance to extinguish it.

“Those fires were, all things considered, very fast-moving for a wildfire. We've seen speeds in the 5 to 10 mph range,” said National Weather Service meteorologist in Amarillo. Christian Rangel said. “The strong winds really helped push them around and get them out of control.”

The region's topography also plays a role, with open land facilitating fire establishment and rapid spread, while making firefighting difficult.

Although the area is mostly flat, it is characterized by “broken terrain” with sand and grass that makes it difficult to access, said Luke Canclairs, chief of forecasting services for the Texas A&M Forest Service. It can be difficult to do so. As a result, once a fire hit the plains, it was difficult to extinguish it quickly.

“A fire moving at about 8 miles per hour may not sound that fast, but when you have a large fire front and you're trying to contain a large area, it can far outpace the firefighting effort,” Kankleerts said. .

The Texas Panhandle is used to in-the-face winds and roller-coaster temperatures. But the fires would not have been as likely to occur if it weren't for unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions made more likely by climate change.

“This particular event would not have been as devastating had it happened at the same time several decades ago,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “These high temperatures can occur early in the season and usually occur when the grass is dormant, so there is a lot of dry fuel available.”

John Abatzoglou, a climatologist at the University of California, Merced, said wind was the biggest factor in the size of the nearly 1 million-acre fire, according to the federal government's wildfire tracking website Inchweb.

“This is primarily a wind-driven fire,” Abatzoglou said, adding that the role of climate change is “more subtle than we generally think.”

Abatzoglou said winds initially blew from the west, spreading the fire in the shape of an oval on the map, but then turned about 90 degrees and began pushing that line southward.

Abatzoglou said there is little hard evidence about how climate change is changing wind speeds.

Temperatures in the Borger area near where the fire started reached 85 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday, the news agency said. National Weather Service data.

Rangel said the Amarillo forecast area “has set records at many weather stations,” with relative humidity readings below 20 percent in many parts of the state and the landscape on the verge of flaming. added.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Bitcoin, refutes claims of early climate change worries

Posted on February 23, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto

Damian Ravaso/Alamy

Bitcoin’s mysterious founder Satoshi Nakamoto dismissed early concerns about the cryptocurrency’s potential to consume large amounts of electricity and contribute to carbon emissions, according to newly released emails.

The true identity of Bitcoin’s creator was never revealed, but after Bitcoin’s creation in January 2009, Nakamoto (a pseudonym) remained active in online forums and emails until late 2010, after which he was removed from the project and stopped communicating with him. .

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Forest plantations may not provide as many climate benefits as previously thought

Posted on February 22, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Planting trees helps reduce global warming

PG Alfexado / Alamy

Planting forests helps reduce further global warming by absorbing some of the carbon dioxide we emit into the atmosphere. But the global climate benefit could be about 15 to 30 percent smaller than previously estimated, due to other influences such as sunlight absorption by trees.

“We're not saying don't plant trees,” he says. james webber at the University of Sheffield, UK. It's just that the climate benefits aren't as big as we thought, he says.

The impact of trees will depend in part on what other actions are taken to address climate change. Weber and his colleagues showed that the more forests are planted, the greater the benefits. “It’s more positive and efficient to do other things at the same time,” he says.

It has long been known that plants have both warming and cooling effects. In particular, dark foliage can have a warming effect by absorbing light that would otherwise be reflected into the space. This effect is strongest when trees are replaced by snow or ice, but can occur in other situations as well.

Plants also release volatile organic compounds into the air. “Those are the chemicals that create the smell of the forest,” team members say james king also at the University of Sheffield.

These biogenic compounds can affect the climate in a variety of ways. One important example is that it can react with chemicals in the atmosphere that react with methane. “So the methane stays around longer, and methane is a powerful greenhouse gas,” Weber said.

Compounds emitted by plants can also react with nitrogen oxides to form ozone, another greenhouse gas.

These effects will lead to further warming. However, compounds of biological origin can also form aerosol particles that reflect sunlight and have a cooling effect.

To understand the overall climate impact of afforestation, the researchers incorporated these and other processes into a climate model in which all available land is forested. This means, for example, trees that are located in areas that are currently grasslands, but not in farmland or urban areas.

“To our knowledge, this is the first time this has been done on a global scale and based on a plausible reforestation scenario,” King said.

The researchers modeled two scenarios. For one, little is being done to tackle climate change other than planting trees. In this case, the warming avoided by CO2-absorbing forests is reduced by 23 to 31 percent, once other forest impacts are taken into account.

In the second, more optimistic scenario, strong action is taken to limit further warming. In this case, avoided warming was reduced by 14 to 18 percent.

One reason for the difference is that reducing fossil fuel emissions reduces aerosols from air pollution. In a polluted world, adding more aerosols from forests won't make much of a difference, but in a cleaner world, the cooling effect will be greater.

The team acknowledges that the model is still incomplete and does not include all feedback effects. For example, it includes the greenhouse effect of ozone, but not its effects on vegetation. High levels of ozone can kill trees, meaning less CO2 is removed from the atmosphere. The model also does not include the effects of wildfires.

“It's very complicated,” King says. “It's not really possible to consider all feedback in one study.”

“Importantly, this study shows that preventing deforestation is a much more efficient way to mitigate climate change compared to reforestation, and therefore should be prioritized. It’s a necessity,” he says. Stephanie Law Climate Scientist at WWF in Washington, DC.

Another feedback missing from the model is the cooling effect of water evaporating from leaves, which can be greater in tropical regions, Roe says. So the climate benefits of tree planting may be overestimated, she says, but the study doesn't yet tell the full story.

Additionally, tree planting has many other benefits for humans and wildlife, including reducing erosion, maintaining water supply and quality, providing food and jobs, and reducing extreme heat in the region. “Afforestation, especially reforestation in forest biomes with native species, is absolutely worth pursuing,” says Lo.

“We've always known that forests have a warming effect under certain conditions and a cooling effect under others. What this study shows is that forests have an overwhelming net The effect is a cooling effect.” thomas crouser in ETH Zurich Swiss.

“But most importantly, even if the effects of cooling were not as great, we still need to conserve our natural forests to support the planet's biodiversity and the billions of people who depend on it.” “There is,” he says.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

By 2050, Half of the Amazon Rainforest May be Reaching a Climate Tipping Point

Posted on February 15, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Forest fires in the Amazon in October 2023

Gustavo Basso/Null Photography via Getty Images

Large parts of the Amazon rainforest are threatened by the combined effects of drought, heat and deforestation, and some ecosystems may be pushed past tipping points. But the likelihood of a larger collapse remains uncertain.

“Forests as a whole are very resilient, so we still have room to act,” he says. Marina Hirota at the Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

Researchers have warned for decades that rising temperatures and deforestation could push the Amazon past a tipping point, leading to runaway feedbacks that could lead to a rapid transition from forest to savannah. The drought and heat caused by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, as well as the warming temperatures caused by climate change, are once again on the rise.

But climate and ecological models that describe the Amazon's highly complex structure disagree on when and where such a tipping point would occur.

To understand which regions of the Amazon are most at risk, Hirota and his colleagues looked at satellite data to see how several different ecosystem stressors might change in the coming decades. evaluated. These include dry season temperatures, exposure to drought, and the risk of fire and deforestation.

They estimate that 10 percent of the Amazon basin is at risk of being exposed to at least two of these stressors by 2050 and is therefore likely to transition to degraded forest- or savanna-like ecosystems. I discovered that. 47% of this watershed is predicted to be exposed to at least one stressor, meaning it is also exposed to some hazard.

“Due to ongoing changes, we will lose some forest, but there are things we can do to prevent it from reaching 47%,” Hirota says. She said the majority of forests that are not exposed to stressors are located within protected areas; indigenous territory, which is associated with low deforestation rates. Brazil's deforestation rate also fell sharply under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's administration. Increased in other areas as well Amazon's.

dominique spracklen Researchers from the University of Leeds in the UK say the study is a powerful investigation into the range of threats facing the Amazon. But he says the discrepancies between models predicting potential tipping points remain unresolved.

For example, models predict that some of the negative effects of warming could be offset by increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, which could boost plant growth. . However, other factors such as nutrients and water availability vary widely across the basin and influence the strength of this impact, creating considerable uncertainty in modeling the future of the Amazon. .

“It's a very scary place for such an important ecosystem,” he says.

Nature
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Reconsidering Classification: Climate Change’s Impact on Category 6 Hurricanes

Posted on February 6, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Studies have shown that although climate change is not expected to increase the number of hurricanes, rising ocean temperatures will make hurricanes more intense. Warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall and flooding from these storms.

Therefore, as long as global warming continues, we can expect more intense storms on Earth.

Researchers found that from 1980 to 2021, five storms in the past nine years had maximum wind speeds exceeding 192 miles per hour, which could have been classified as Category 6 storms. Their study also used models to explore how different climate scenarios could affect hurricanes and other large storms around the world. They found that if the Earth warmed by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the risk of Category 6 storms could double in the Gulf of Mexico and in Southeast Asia and the Philippines.

The researchers also highlighted that even the relatively low global warming target of the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, could significantly increase the likelihood of Category 6 storms.

These findings will continue the debate about how to better communicate the threat of extreme weather events and how climate change increases that threat. For example, scientists pointed out that the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale cannot convey some of the most destructive aspects of hurricanes, such as storm surge, rainfall, and flooding. Adding a sixth category to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale may raise awareness of the increased risk of major hurricanes due to global warming. The National Hurricane Center has also announced new experimental forecasts to better communicate the risk of inland winds during extreme weather events.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

New study suggests sponges retain grim climate records

Posted on February 6, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

If temperature-tracking sponges can be trusted, climate change is happening much faster than scientists estimate.

A new study that used marine organisms called hard sponges to measure global average temperatures suggests that the world has already warmed by about 1.7 degrees Celsius over the past 300 years. This is at least 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the scientific consensus stated in the UN report.

The findings, published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, are surprising, but some scientists believe the study authors’ conclusions give more inferences about global temperatures than can be confidently gleaned from sponges. They claim that they are doing too much.

However, this study raises important questions. How much warmer did the world get when humans were less systematically measuring temperatures around the world, even as fossil fuel-powered machines were running hard? Scientists say this is an important question. It is a problem that needs to be better understood.

The study’s authors say that industrialization before 1900 had a greater impact than scientists previously realized, and that influence is captured in centuries-old sponge skeletons and that we The standards we have been using to talk about the politics of climate change have been wrong.

“Essentially, these studies show that the industrial age of warming started earlier than we thought, in the 1860s,” said the study’s lead author, a researcher at the University of Western Australia’s Global Professor of Chemistry Malcolm McCulloch spoke about sponges. “The big picture is that the global warming clock has been moved forward by at least 10 years to reduce emissions to minimize the risks of a dangerous climate.”

Scientists not involved in the study say their colleagues are grappling with how much warming occurred in the decades after the industrial revolution and before temperature records became more reliable. .

“This is not the only effort to reexamine what we call the pre-industrial baseline and suggest we may have missed the increase in warming during the 19th century,” said Brown University paleoclimate and oceanography expert. said Kim Cobb, author of the report. Brown Institute for the Environment and Society. “This is an important area of uncertainty.”

In its latest assessment of global warming, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the Earth’s surface temperature has increased by up to 1.2 degrees Celsius since before the industrial revolution.

Some scientists believe that the IPCC process (which requires consensus) will yield conservative results. For example, scientists who study Earth’s ice have expressed concern that the Earth is approaching the tipping point of the ice sheet sooner than expected and that the IPCC’s sea level rise projections are too low.

Cobb, who did not contribute to the Nature Climate Change study, said a large amount of evidence would be needed to change what scientists call the pre-industrial baseline, but other researchers have argued that warming has increased since before the 1900s. He also said that he has found some signs that the system is not being properly accounted for. .

“How big this extra warming increase actually is is currently unknown. Is this important to study? We could be missing a tenth of a degree. Is there a? Yes, I think it’s been uncovered in a series of studies over the last six to 10 years,” Cobb said.

Scleros sponges are one of many climate proxies used by scientists to gather information about past climate conditions. In the dural cavernosa, the skeletal growth layers serve a similar purpose to marine biologists, just as tree rings serve a purpose to those working in the forest.

Dural sponges grow slowly, and as they grow, the chemical composition of their skeleton changes based on the surrounding temperature. This means that scientists can track temperature by looking at the ratio of strontium to calcium as an organism steadily grows.

Studies show that every half millimeter of growth is equivalent to about two years of temperature data. Living things can grow and add layers to their skeletons over hundreds of years.

“These are truly unique specimens. The reason we are able to obtain this unique data is because of the special relationship these animals have with their surrounding environment,” McCulloch said.

The study’s authors collected sponges from waters at least 100 feet deep off the coast of Puerto Rico and near St. Croix, analyzed the chemical composition of their skeletons, graphed the results, and used the data from 1964 to When compared with sea surface temperature measurements in 2012, the trends were almost identical.

Cancellous bone data dates back to 1700, predating reliable human records. This gives scientists a longer reference point to assess what temperatures were like before fossil fuels became widespread. Researchers believe this dataset is superior to other datasets calculated using her 19th century temperature measurements from ocean-going ships.

Sponge data shows that temperatures started rising in the 1860s, before the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considered it.

But some outside researchers say the study may have made too much use of one type of proxy indicator, especially when the data is tied to only one location on Earth.

“We should be cautious in assuming that estimates from parts of the Atlantic Ocean always reflect global averages,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said in an emailed statement. He added that the author’s claims are probably wrong. “It’s gone too far.”

The study authors said they believe the waters off Puerto Rico have remained relatively stable, reflecting global changes similar to those elsewhere in the world.

The results suggest that humanity has already surpassed political guardrails, such as world leaders’ goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Cobb said further work would need to be done with a dural sponge to ensure the work was accurate. And regardless of how much we are already pushing up the planet’s temperature, humanity must put the brakes on greenhouse gas production.

“Every time we get warmer, the climate impacts increase and the climate impacts worsen,” Cobb said. “We’re already living with an unsafe warming climate. … Jobs haven’t changed.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Alpine ibex are becoming more nocturnal as the climate warms up

Posted on January 17, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Ibex can be at risk from wolves if they move around at night

robert andrighetto

Alpine ibex have become increasingly nocturnal to escape rising daytime temperatures, despite the increased risk of encountering predators.

Animals living in cold regions are expected to be greatly affected by rising global temperatures due to climate change. Alpine Ibex (capra ibex), usually seen grazing during the day in the European Alps, is one such animal.

To see what the impact was, Stefano Grignorio Researchers from the University of Ferrara in Italy tracked 47 individuals in Italy's Gran Paradiso National Park or Swiss National Park from May to October between 2006 and 2019. The animals were fitted with collars equipped with movement sensors.

Researchers found that warmer daytime temperatures made ibex more active at night. Grignolio said the discovery was surprising because doing so increases the chances of encountering wolves, one of their main natural enemies.

“Global warming seems to be driving their behavior changes dramatically,” he says. “Predation is just a variable.”

The ibex, a climate-sensitive animal, has probably shifted to a more nocturnal schedule to avoid the heat. Warmer daytime temperatures mean your body needs to expend more energy to cool itself compared to the energy needed to stay warm at night, Grignolio says.

However, while this response may help ibex cope with warmer climates, it may not be a viable long-term solution for ibex. “[They] may not be able to meet their demands [dietary] If they become too nocturnal or have increased predation, their requirements will not be met.” Niels Martin Schmidt At Aarhus University, Denmark.

“This study successfully quantifies some of the more subtle and often overlooked responses to climate change,” Schimdt says.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

YouTube challenges climate change denialism

Posted on January 16, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

Climate change denial has taken on a new focus, according to a recent report from the Center for Digital Action. Instead of denying that the planet is warming, scientists and activists are now questioning climate change solutions and skepticism about policy. Hate, a nonprofit organization researching digital hate speech and misinformation, has outlined this shift in their analysis. They argue that YouTube’s parent company, Google, has ineffective content policy regulations aimed at blocking ad revenue from content denying the scientific consensus of climate change.

Imran Ahmed, CEO of the organization, stated, “A new front has opened in this battle. They used to say climate change wasn’t happening, and now they’re saying, ‘Climate change is happening, but there’s no hope. There are no solutions.'” This reflects the evolution of the debate from outright denial to skepticism about the severity of climate change and potential solutions.

For decades, scientists have agreed that human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, are causing an imbalance in the atmosphere, leading to global warming. As the Earth warms, the impacts are becoming increasingly evident, such as melting ice shelves and rising sea levels. Public perception of climate change has changed over recent decades, although it remains highly politicized, according to Pew Research Center.

The Center for Countering Digital Hate utilized artificial intelligence models to analyze YouTube videos with climate change denial content. Their analysis revealed a shift in the denial narrative from denying the existence of global warming to attacking climate change solutions.

John Cook, a senior research fellow, sees similar trends in his work, stating that the focus has shifted from questioning the existence of climate change to evaluating the seriousness of the problem and the effectiveness of proposed solutions.

The report also highlighted YouTube’s policies regarding misinformation about climate change and their failure to stop the monetization of negative narratives. They suggest that YouTube and Google should expand the types of content they can’t monetize to include climate change denial and to update their policies based on current trends.

YouTube has responded, stating that they prohibit advertising on content that violates the scientific consensus on climate change. They allow discussion and debate on the topic but will not show ads on videos that cross the line of climate change denial.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The Extinction of the World’s Largest Ape: A Result of Climate Change

Posted on January 12, 2024 by Igor Mitreski

HONG KONG — Didn't fall from the Empire State Building.

Instead, the giant ape, sometimes called the “real King Kong,” was driven to extinction by climate change that made its favorite fruit unavailable during the dry season, according to a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature. The results have been announced.

An artist's impression of a herd of giant apes Gigantopithecus blackii in a forest landscape in southern China.Southern Cross University/AFP – Getty Images

They can grow up to 10 feet tall and weigh up to 650 pounds. Gigantopithecus brachy Hundreds of thousands of years ago, they roamed the forested plains of southern China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, feeding on fruits and flowers.

But researchers have discovered that the apes' harsh diet may have led to the species' extinction.

The herbivorous apes made the “fatal mistake of becoming reluctant to change their food preferences to find new, more nutritious foods,” the study's lead researcher Yin-chi Chan said Thursday. told NBC News.

“As the environment changed, the food this great ape preferred became unavailable. But this great ape did not adapt to its dietary preferences. It remained dependent on a diet with low nutritional value. ” he added.

Zhang, a Beijing-based paleontologist, said the creatures stuck to dense forests, while apes like orangutans quickly adapted and moved into open forests, eating small animals.

Gigantopithecus blackii, thought to be the largest primate on Earth, roamed the plains of southern China before going extinct. Southern Cross University/AFP – Getty Images

The reason for the species' extinction has been a mystery ever since a tooth was discovered in a Hong Kong pharmacy in 1935 by German-Dutch paleontologist Gustav Heinrich Ralph von Königswald. It was sold as “Dragon Tooth”.

This discovery led to extensive research for more fossils, but 85 years later, only 2,000 isolated teeth and parts of the lower jaw have been discovered. No parts other than the skull were recovered.

Without a “precise timeline” of extinctions, “we're looking for clues in the wrong places,” said Kira Westaway, one of the study's lead authors and a geochronologist at Macquarie University in Sydney. says.

However, the researchers were able to use one of the latest techniques, called “luminescence dating,” which allowed them to determine the age of the soil around the fossils in 22 caves in southern China.

From this, they concluded that the great apes went extinct between 295,000 and 215,000 years ago.

“Now we have a target zone. We have a target period. So we start looking at changes in the environment,” Westaway said.

The researchers also found clues in the fauna around the cave, with analysis of pollen and wear on the great apes' teeth showing that changing seasons led to a lack of fruit and reduced reliance on less nutritious food. It became clear that he was no longer able to earn money.

“Gigants couldn't really expand their foraging range to find more suitable food because they're so big. Orangutans are also very small, mobile, and very “It's agile,” Westaway said, adding that the new study provided a blueprint for further research into the main extinction event.

“You need to get a very precise timeline. You need to look at what the environment is doing and then look at how they acted,” she said.

From about 2 million to 22 million years ago, dozens of species of great apes lived in Africa, Europe, and Asia. Today, only gorillas, chimpanzees, bonobos, and orangutans remain.

Westaway said the research could also open the door to future possibilities for how humans can adapt to adverse weather events and ensure species survival.

“This sets a precedent for trying to understand how primates respond to environmental stress and what makes certain primates vulnerable and what makes others resilient.” she says.

Mitchell Agarwal

Mithil Aggarwal is a reporter and producer for NBC News based in Hong Kong.

alice kong

Alice Kong is an intern on NBC News' Asia desk.

Associated Press contributed.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The Relationship Between Seismology and Climate Change Noise

Posted on December 26, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

Since the 1980s, seismic observatories have detected increases in the strength of ocean waves that correlate with climate change. A Colorado State University study analyzed more than 35 years of data and found that ocean waves are becoming significantly stronger, reflecting the increased intensity of storms due to global warming. This seismic data reveals long-term trends and changes in wave energy and highlights the need for resilient strategies to protect coastal regions from the effects of climate change.

Since the late 1980s, modern digital seismic observatories have been monitoring Earth’s vibrations around the world. Previously thought by seismologists to be just a background disturbance, the persistent low hum produced by ocean waves has become stronger since the late 20th century, according to a study led by Colorado State University.

This research nature communicationsexamines data from 52 seismic stations that recorded the Earth’s movement once a second over 35 years. This decades-long record supports independent climate and ocean research that suggests storms are becoming more intense as the climate warms.

“Seismology can provide stable, quantitative measurements of what is happening to waves in the world’s oceans, complementing research using satellites, oceanography, and other methods.” said author Rick Astor, professor of geophysics and chair of Earth Sciences at CSU. “The seismic signal is consistent with these other studies and shows the types of features expected from anthropogenic climate change.”

Astor and his collaborators at the U.S. Geological Survey and Harvard University studied first-order microseisms, the seismic signals produced by large, long-period waves that cross shallow regions of the world’s oceans. The ocean floor in coastal areas is constantly being pushed and pulled by these waves, and these pressure changes generate seismic waves that are picked up by seismometers.

Seismic station locations and global trends since the late 1980s: (a) Ground vertical acceleration amplitude in billionths of a meter, (b) Acceleration amplitude normalized to the historical median, and ( c) Normalized by the historical median of seismic energy.Credit: Rick Astor

Seismometers are best known for monitoring and studying earthquakes, but they also detect many other things, including the movement of glaciers, landslides, volcanic eruptions, large meteorites, and noise from cities. Seismic waves from various forces on or within the Earth’s surface can be seen at great distances, sometimes even on the other side of the Earth.

“As the atmosphere and ocean warm, storms become more intense because they contain more energy, and the ocean waves they cause increase in size and energy,” Aster said. “Increasing the energy of ocean waves directly increases the strength of seismic waves.”

make (bigger) waves

Seismic signals show that the Southern Ocean waves of the infamous storm around Antarctica are predictably the most intense on Earth, while the waves in the North Atlantic are the most rapidly intensifying in recent decades, with waves in eastern North America and western Europe It reflects the storm that rages between.

In addition to the steady rise in wave energy that reflects widespread increases in global ocean and air temperatures, the data also show multi-year climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña that influence the strength and distribution of global storms. Masu. And an even bigger storm.

“It’s clear that these long-term earthquake records show general signs of storm activity around the world, in addition to long-term intensification due to global warming,” Astor said. “It looks like a small signal from year to year, but it’s gradual and becomes very clear when you work with more than 30 years of data.”

Astor and his colleagues found that global average ocean wave energy has increased by a median of 0.27% per year since the late 20th century, and by 0.35% per year since January 2000.

Stormy weather forecast

Mr Astor said storm surges associated with larger waves and larger storms, coupled with rising sea levels, were a serious global problem for coastal ecosystems, cities and infrastructure.

“In addition to efforts to mitigate climate change itself, we will need to implement resilient strategies to ensure coastal populations and ecosystems are protected from an increasingly stormy future.” said Astor.

Reference: “Increase in ocean wave energy observed in Earth’s seismic wave field since the late 20th century” by Richard C. Astor, Adam T. Ringler, Robert E. Anthony, and Thomas A. Lee, October 32, 2023 , nature communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42673-w

This research was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Science Foundation.

Source: scitechdaily.com

Researchers Discover the Root Cause of a Historic, Lethal Climate Shift Millions of Years in the Past

Posted on December 25, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

Scientists have linked mass extinctions and climate change over the past 260 million years to massive volcanic eruptions and Earth’s astronomical cycles. The study highlights the role of CO2 emissions in climate change and reveals a complex relationship between Earth’s geology and position in space that is distinct from modern anthropogenic climate change.

New research reveals that Earth’s geological history is tied not only to the planet’s interior, but also to its astronomical movements.

The team of scientists concluded that it has occurred over the past 260 million years and that the mass extinction of life caused during these periods was primarily caused by large-scale volcanic eruptions and the resulting environmental crisis.

The analysis published in the magazine earth science reviews indicate that these eruptions released large amounts of carbon dioxide into the Earth’s atmosphere, resulting in extreme greenhouse climate warming and creating lethal or deadly conditions on Earth.

Astronomical cycles and Earth’s climate

Importantly, these phenomena occur every 26 to 33 million years and coincide with significant changes in the orbits of the solar system’s planets, which follow the same periodic pattern, the researchers added.

“Earth’s geological processes, long thought to be strictly determined by events inside the planet, may actually be controlled by the solar system and Earth’s astronomical cycles. milky way Galaxy,” says Professor Michael Lampino. new york university Department of Biology and senior author of the paper. “Importantly, these forces have converged many times in Earth’s past to predict dramatic changes in climate.”

The researchers, including Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science and geologist Sederia Rodriguez of Barnard College, say their conclusions are unrelated to climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries, and that scientists believe that human It warns that it shows that it is caused by activity. The last studied pulse of volcanic eruptions occurred about 16 million years ago.

But they added that the analysis nevertheless supports the well-established impact of carbon dioxide emissions on climate warming.

Volcanic eruptions and geological phenomena

Researchers have identified Continental Flood Basalt (CFB) eruptions, the largest volcanic eruptions on Earth with lava flows covering nearly 500,000 square miles, and other major geological events over the past 260 million years. focused. These include ocean anoxic events (periods during which the Earth’s oceans are depleted of oxygen, thereby producing toxic water) and the hyperthermal climate pulse, a sudden increase in global temperature and the resulting ocean and periods of mass extinction of non-marine life. .

They found that CFB eruptions frequently coincided with these other deadly geological phenomena, revealing the larger impact of volcanic activity. Its relevance to astronomy is evidenced by its regular, multimillion-year cycles of volcanic activity and extreme weather events, and its similarities with the known orbital periods of the Earth in our solar system and Milky Way galaxy.

The authors found that the correspondence between geological and astrophysical cycles was too close to be a mere coincidence. The big problem they were left with was how The astronomical movements of the planets disrupt the geological engines inside the Earth.

“This is an unexpected connection and predicts a convergence of both astronomy and geology. Events that occur on Earth occur within the context of our astronomical environment,” Rampino said. Observe.

References: “Periods of ~32.5 My and ~26.2 My in correlated episodes of continental flood basalts (CFBs), hyperthermal climate pulses, anoxic oceans, and mass extinctions over the past 260 My years: geological and astronomical cycles. Relationships” by Michael R. Rampino, Ken Caldeira, and Cederia Rodriguez, September 25, 2023. earth science reviews. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104548

Source: scitechdaily.com

Scientists are using flawed strategies to predict species responses to climate change, posing a dangerous risk of misinformation.

Posted on December 24, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

A new study reveals that a spatiotemporal substitution method used to predict species responses to climate change inaccurately predicts the effects of warming on ponderosa pines. This finding suggests that this method may be unreliable in predicting species’ future responses to changes in climate. Credit: SciTechDaily.com

A new study involving researchers at the University of Arizona suggests that changes are happening faster than trees can adapt. The discovery is a “warning to ecologists” studying climate change.

As the world warms and the climate changes, life will migrate, adapt, or become extinct. For decades, scientists have introduced certain methods to predict how things will happen. seed We will survive this era of great change. But new research suggests that method may be misleading or producing false results.

Flaws in prediction methods revealed

Researchers at the University of Arizona and team members from the U.S. Forest Service and Brown University found that this method (commonly referred to as spatiotemporal replacement) shows how a tree called the ponderosa pine, which is widespread in the western United States, grows. I discovered something that I couldn’t predict accurately. We have actually responded to global warming over the past few decades. This also means that other studies that rely on displacement in space and time may not accurately reflect how species will respond to climate change in coming decades.

The research team collected and measured growth rings of ponderosa pine trees from across the western United States, dating back to 1900, to determine how trees actually grow and how models predict how trees will respond to warming. We compared.

A view of ponderosa and Jeffrey pine forests from Verdi Mountain near Truckee, California.Credit: Daniel Perrette

“We found that substituting time for space produces incorrect predictions in terms of whether the response to warming will be positive or negative,” said study co-author Margaret Evans, an associate professor at the University of Arizona. ” he said. Tree ring laboratory. “With this method, ponderosa pines are supposed to benefit from warming, but they actually suffer from warming. This is dangerously misleading.”

Their research results were published on December 18th. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Daniel Perrette, a U.S. Forest Service ORISE fellow, is the lead author and received training in tree-ring analysis through the university’s summer field methods course at the University of Arizona Research Institute. The study was part of his doctoral dissertation at Brown University, and was conducted with Dov Sachs, professor of biogeography and biodiversity and co-author of the paper.

Inaccuracies in space and time substitutions

This is how space and time permutation works. All species occupy a range of favorable climatic conditions. Scientists believe that individuals growing at the hottest end of their range could serve as an example of what will happen to populations in cooler locations in a warmer future.

The research team found that ponderosa pine trees grow at a faster rate in warmer locations. Therefore, under the spatial and temporal displacement paradigm, this suggests that the situation should improve as the climate warms at the cold end of the distribution.

“But the tree-ring data doesn’t show that,” Evans said.

However, when the researchers used tree rings to assess how individual trees responded to changes in temperature, they found that ponderosa was consistently negatively affected by temperature fluctuations.

“If it’s a warmer-than-average year, they’re going to have smaller-than-average growth rings, so warming is actually bad for them, and that’s true everywhere,” she says.

The researchers believe this may be happening because trees are unable to adapt quickly enough to a rapidly changing climate.

An individual tree and all its growth rings are a record of that particular tree’s genetics exposed to different climatic conditions from one year to the next, Evans said. But how a species responds as a whole is the result of a slow pace of evolutionary adaptation to the average conditions in a particular location that are different from those elsewhere. Similar to evolution, the movement of trees that are better adapted to changing temperatures could save species, but climate change is happening too quickly, Evans said.

Rainfall effects and final thoughts

Beyond temperature, the researchers also looked at how trees responded to rainfall. They confirmed that, even across time and space, more water is better.

“These spatially-based predictions are really dangerous because spatial patterns reflect the end point after a long period in which species have had the opportunity to evolve, disperse, and ultimately sort themselves across the landscape. Because we do,” Evans said. “But that’s not how climate change works. Unfortunately, trees are in a situation where they are changing faster than they can adapt and are actually at risk of extinction. This is a warning to ecologists. .”

References: “Species responses to spatial climate change do not predict responses to climate change,” by Daniel L. Perrett, Margaret EK Evans, and Dov F. Sachs, December 18, 2023. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2304404120

Funding: Brown University Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Brown Institute for the Environment and Society, American Philosophical Society Lewis and Clark Expeditionary and Field Research Fund, Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Department of Energy Oak Ridge Science Institute Education , NSF Macrosystems Biology

Source: scitechdaily.com

Researchers ponder the sorrow of climate change

Posted on December 24, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

“It was a good combination of risk and conveying emotional truth. So I was able to really dig deep and say exactly how I felt in that moment,” he said. Ta.

His rant went viral. He says his employer, NASA, sent him a letter expressing concern about his two arrests.

(“That has to be very clear because I’m speaking on behalf of myself, not as a climate scientist at NASA, which is very important to keeping my job.”) he said in an interview.)

He fears a third arrest could cost him money.

“Will I continue doing science? Or will I continue to participate in dangerous activities and possibly lose my job?” Kalmus said.

Meanwhile, Kalmus is frustrated by the growing number of scientists who are willing to be arrested and not incite protests. And his view of our climate predicament grew increasingly bleak.

“The situation in 2023 feels worse than I thought it would be,” Kalmus said, citing record levels of sea ice in Antarctica as a sign that the Earth system may be changing faster than the scientific community. He pointed out the low temperatures and record heights of sea and land surfaces. I can understand it.

In recent years, climate change has begun to have a negative impact on Calmus’ personal life.

In the summer of 2020, he felt sick while hiking through a California heatwave, witnessed wildfires blazing and plumes of smoke miles from his home in California, and his voice became hoarse and his head hurt. It hurt. The scorching temperatures killed the dogwood tree in my front yard. His productivity decreased and he could no longer focus on science.

Kalmas dreamed of living in the Pacific Northwest, feeling he might be able to escape the worst of climate change. That same year, a three-day heat wave that would have been nearly impossible without the effects of climate change hit the region, killing hundreds of people, buckling roads and causing overheated baby birds to jump from their nests and die.

“That’s when I realized there was no safe place,” Kalmus said. His family moved to North Carolina for his wife Sharon’s job, and his experience planted a seed.

If we can’t stop climate change and we can’t avoid it, can we at least find better ways to survive it?

life in a mansion

Calmus knew what could go wrong.

“I immediately ruled out the idea of being a prepper stocking up on beans and ammunition,” he said.

But he found himself dreaming of a simpler life, where he could keep bees, grow vegetables, squeeze cider on Friday nights, and live closer to the land.

A visit to Possibility Alliance, a sprawling 11-acre farm filled with fruit trees, goats, chickens and gardens, allowed him to scratch an itch he had looked forward to for much of his adult life.

The Hughes family, who run the homestead, and their guests live almost entirely without electricity or modern technology.

The family of four does not fly or own a car due to concerns about the climate. Their main use of fossil fuels is to transport passenger trains to climate protests.

They sought to avoid capitalism and instead created a “gift economy” in this small corner of Maine, where neighbors shared resources and exchanged skills. They grow much of their own food, hold trainings for climate protesters, and plan to take in refugees as the climate disaster worsens.

At night it is illuminated by candlelight. Neighbors stop by without notice.

“We created something that existed 100 years ago,” Ethan Hughes said.

On a humid August morning, Calmus huddles around a faded picnic table in the heart of a farm in Belfast, Maine, sipping a rare varietal of coffee and thinking, like himself, that he’s wary of climate change. I noticed people there.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Uncovering the Impact of Climate Change on Exoplanets: Transitioning from Temperate to Fear

Posted on December 21, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

Researchers have conducted a new study on the runaway greenhouse effect, revealing how a critical threshold of water vapor could cause catastrophic climate change on Earth and other planets. This study reveals key cloud patterns contributing to this irreversible climate change and provides insight into exoplanets’ climates and their potential to support life. Credit: SciTechDaily.com

The UNIGE team, in collaboration with CNRS, successfully simulated an entire runaway greenhouse effect that could render Earth completely uninhabitable.

Earth is a wonderful blue and green dot covered with oceans and life, Venus It is a yellowish sterile sphere that is not only inhospitable but also sterile. However, the temperature difference between the two is only a few degrees.

A team of astronomers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and members of the National Center for Research Competence (NCCR) PlanetS achieved a world first by managing the entire simulation, with support from the CNRS laboratories in Paris and Bordeaux. Achieved. A runaway greenhouse process that could change Earth’s climate from an idyllic environment perfect for life to a harsh and more than hostile place.

Scientists have also demonstrated that from the early stages of the process, atmospheric structure and cloud cover change significantly, making reversing the nearly uncontrollable and runaway greenhouse effect extremely complex. On Earth, an increase in the average temperature of the Earth by a few tens of degrees after a slight increase in the sun’s brightness is enough to start this phenomenon and make our planet habitable.

A runaway greenhouse effect could transform a temperate, habitable planet with oceans of liquid water on its surface into a planet dominated by hot steam hostile to all life. Credit: © Thibaut Roger / UNIGE

Greenhouse effect and runaway scenario

The idea of a runaway greenhouse effect is not new. In this scenario, the planet could evolve from an Earth-like temperate state to a true hell with surface temperatures exceeding her 1000 degrees. Cause? Water vapor is a natural greenhouse gas. Water vapor prevents solar radiation absorbed by the Earth from being re-emitted into space as thermal radiation. It traps some heat like a rescue blanket. A little greenhouse effect would be helpful, but without it, the average temperature of Earth would drop below the freezing point of water, making it a ball of ice and hostile to life.

Conversely, if the greenhouse effect is too strong, it increases evaporation in the oceans and increases the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. “There is a critical threshold for this amount of water vapor, beyond which the Earth can no longer cool down. From there, everything ramps up until the oceans completely evaporate and temperatures reach hundreds of degrees.” , explains Guillaume Chabelo, a former postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Astronomy at the Faculty of Science at UNIGE and lead author of the study.

Groundbreaking research on climate change

“Other important studies in climatology to date have focused solely on either temperate states before the runaway or habitable states after the runaway,” says a study from the CNRS Institute in Paris and Bordeaux. Martin Tarbet, author and co-author of this paper, explains: study. “This is the first time a research team has used a 3D global climate model to study the transition itself and see how the climate and atmosphere evolve during the process.”

One of the key points of the study explains the emergence of very unique cloud patterns, increasing the runaway effect and making the process irreversible. “From the beginning of the transition, we can observe the development of very dense clouds in the upper atmosphere. In fact, the latter are responsible for the separation of the Earth’s atmosphere and its two main layers, the troposphere and the stratosphere. It no longer exhibits the characteristics of a temperature inversion. The structure of the atmosphere has changed significantly,” points out Guillaume Chavelot.

Serious consequences of searching for life elsewhere

This discovery is an important feature for studying the climate of other planets, especially exoplanets orbiting stars other than the Sun. “By studying the climates of other planets, one of our most powerful motivations is to determine the likelihood of them harboring life,” said Dr. said Emmeline Bolmont, director and co-author of “Extraterrestrial Research” study.

LUC leads cutting-edge interdisciplinary research projects on the origins of life on Earth and the search for life elsewhere in the solar system and beyond planetary systems. “After previous studies, we had already suspected the existence of a water vapor threshold, but the appearance of this cloud pattern is a real surprise!” reveals Emmeline Bolmont. “We also studied in parallel how this cloud pattern produces specific signatures, or ‘fingerprints’, that can be detected when observed. exoplanet atmosphere. The next generation of equipment should be able to detect it, ”he reveals Martin Turbet. The team also doesn’t aim to stop there. Guillaume Chabelo received a research grant to continue this work at the Grenoble Institute for Planetary Observation and Astrophysics (IPAG). This new phase of the research project will focus on specific cases from Earth.

Earth in fragile equilibrium

Using a new climate model, scientists have shown that a very small increase in solar radiation of just a few tens of degrees, leading to a rise in global temperatures, is enough to trigger this irreversible runaway process on Earth. I calculated that. It would make our planet as inhospitable as Venus. One of the current climate goals is to limit global warming caused by greenhouse gases to just 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. One of the problems with Guillaume Chavelot’s research grant is to determine whether a small increase in greenhouse gases could cause a runaway process. The brightness of the sun may be enough. If so, the next question becomes determining whether the threshold temperatures for both processes are the same.

Therefore, Earth is not far from this apocalyptic scenario. “Assuming this runaway process begins on Earth, evaporation of just 10 meters of ocean surface would raise atmospheric pressure at the surface by 1 bar. Within just a few hundred years, surface temperatures would exceed 500°C. Then the surface pressure would rise to 273 bar, the temperature would exceed 1500 degrees, and eventually all oceans would completely evaporate,” concludes Guillaume Chavelot.

Reference: “First Exploration of Runaway Greenhouse Transitions Using 3D General Circulation Models” by Guillaume Chaverot, Emeline Bolmont, and Martin Turbet, December 18, 2023. astronomy and astrophysics.

Exoplanets in Geneva: 25 years of expertise wins Nobel Prize

The first exoplanet was discovered in 1995 by two University of Geneva researchers, Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz, who won the 2019 Nobel Prize in Physics. With this discovery, Department of Astronomy, University of Geneva The construction and installation of has put us at the forefront of research in this field. harp upon ESO3.6 meter telescope at La Silla in 2003.

For 20 years, this spectrometer was the world’s most powerful at determining the masses of exoplanets. However, HARPS was surpassed in 2018 by ESPRESSO, another Earth-based spectrometer built in Geneva. very large telescope (VLT) Paranal, Chile.

Switzerland is also working on space-based exoplanet observations with the CHEOPS mission. This is the result of the expertise of two countries. University of Bern, the on-ground experience of the University of Geneva in collaboration with the universities of Geneva and with the support of the universities of the Swiss capital. These two areas of scientific and technical expertise are PlanetS National Center for Research Capability (NCCR).

Life in the Universe Center (LUC): A pillar of interdisciplinary excellence

of Life in the Universe Center (LUC) is an interdisciplinary research center at the University of Geneva (UNIGE), established in 2021 following the 2019 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded to Professors Michel Mayor and Didier Quelot. Thanks to advances over the past decade in both the fields of solar system exploration, exoplanets, and the organic structure of life, it is now possible to address the question of the emergence of life on other planets in a concrete way. Ta. It’s no longer just a guess. Located at the intersection of astronomy, chemistry, physics, biology, and the earth and climate sciences, LUC aims to understand the origin and distribution of life in the universe. Led by the Department of Astronomy, LUC brings together researchers from numerous institutes and departments at UNIGE, as well as from our international partner universities.

Source: scitechdaily.com

Scientists Develop New “Cooling Glass” to Combat Climate Change by Channeling Heat from Buildings into Space

Posted on December 19, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

Innovative “cooling glass” developed by researchers at the University of Maryland provides a groundbreaking, non-electrical solution for reducing indoor heat and carbon emissions, and significantly advances sustainable building technology. It shows great progress.

Applying new coatings to exterior surfaces can reduce air conditioning usage and help fight climate change.

Researchers at the University of Maryland have developed an innovative “cooling glass” designed to reduce indoor temperatures without using electricity. This revolutionary material works by harnessing the cold air of outer space.

New technology, microporous glass coating, described in paper published in the journal sciencecan lower the temperature of the material beneath it by 3.5 degrees. Celsius According to a research team led by distinguished professor Liangbing Hu of the university’s School of Materials Science and Engineering, it has the potential to reduce the annual carbon dioxide emissions of mid-rise apartments by 10%.

Cooling mechanism with two functions

This coating works in two ways. For one, it reflects up to 99% of solar radiation, preventing buildings from absorbing heat. Even more interestingly, this universe emits heat in the form of long-wave infrared radiation into the icy universe, whose temperature is typically -270 degrees Celsius, or just a few degrees warmer. absolute temperature.

In a phenomenon known as “radiative cooling,” spaces effectively act as heat sinks for buildings. They use new cooling glass designs and so-called atmospheric transparency windows (the part of the electromagnetic spectrum that passes through the atmosphere without increasing its temperature) to dump large amounts of heat into the infinitely colder sky beyond. Masu. (Although the emissions are much stronger than those from the new glass developed at UMD, the same phenomenon causes the Earth to cool itself, especially on clear nights.)

State-of-the-art durable materials

“This is an innovative technology that simplifies the way we keep buildings cool and energy efficient,” said research assistant Xinpeng Zhao, lead author of the study. “This could help us change the way we live and take better care of our homes and the planet.”

Unlike previous attempts at cooling coatings, the new glass developed by UMD is environmentally stable, withstanding exposure to water, UV light, dirt, and even flame, and withstands temperatures up to 1,000 degrees Celsius. can withstand. Because glass can be applied to a variety of surfaces such as tile, brick, and metal, the technology is highly scalable and can be adopted for a wide range of applications.

The research team could use finely ground glass particles as a binder, bypassing polymers and increasing long-term durability outdoors, Zhao said. We then selected a particle size that maximizes the release of infrared heat while reflecting sunlight.

Climate change solutions and global impacts

The development of cooling glass is in line with global efforts to reduce energy consumption and combat climate change, Hu said, adding that this year’s Independence Day could have been the world’s hottest day in 125,000 years. He pointed out recent reports that it was a day of sex.

“This ‘cooling glass’ is not just a new material, it’s an important part of the solution to climate change,” he said. “By reducing the use of air conditioners, we have taken a big step towards reducing energy usage and reducing our carbon footprint. This is because new technology is helping us build a cooler, greener world. It shows how it can help.”

In addition to Hu and Zhao, Jelena Srebric and Zongfu Yu, professors of mechanical engineering in the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, are co-authors of the study, each contributing expertise in CO2 reduction and structural design. There is. .

The team is now focused on further testing and practical application of the cooled glass. They are optimistic about its commercialization prospects and have formed a startup company, CeraCool, to scale and commercialize it.

Reference: “Solution-processed radiatively cooled glass” Xinpeng Zhao, Tangyuan Li, Hua Xie, He Liu, Lingzhe Wang, Yurui Qu, Stephanie C. Li, Shufeng Liu, Alexandra H. Brozena, Zongfu Yu, Jelena Srebric, Liangbing Written by Hu, November 9, 2023, science.
DOI: 10.1126/science.adi2224

Source: scitechdaily.com

Analyzing Metafuels’ $8 million seed deck for climate technology

Posted on December 15, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

Approximately 2% The world’s CO₂ emissions come from pressurized, jet-driven sausages traveling through the air. Earlier this week, he covered Metafuels, a startup that believes it has a solution to reducing aircraft emissions.

I also negotiated with the company’s founders to provide them with pitch materials for their $8 million seed round, allowing me to take a closer look at the materials the company used to raise money.

We’re looking for more unique proposal decks, so if you’d like to submit your own, you can do so in the following ways:

This deck slide

Metafuels was kind enough to share its entire deck with TechCrunch+ for this teardown. There are some minor edits, but the majority of this slide deck remains intact.

cover slide
Market size slide
Product/Technology Slide 3
product manufacturing slides
Unit economics (large scale production numbers)
unique selling point
technology roadmap
Business model slides (production version)
Business model slide (license)
Commercialization slide
Market traction slide
team slide
end slide

3 things to love

If you’ve been reading my Pitch Deck Deconstruction article, even just skimming the list of slides above, you’re probably thinking, “Oh, Haje won’t be happy with this, there’s a ton of information missing!” . And yes, you would definitely be right. However, this is an interesting challenge for deep tech startups. If it takes a long time to get your product to market, by definition you’re missing a lot of things.

Is it a bird? Is it an airplane?No, the market size is skyrocketing

It takes special chutzpah to say “all aviation fuel” is your market, but that’s what Metafuels is doing here.

[Slide 2] Aiming for 70% of the aviation fuel market is quite bold. I like that. Image credits: meta fuel

Currently, the market size for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is quite limited. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), around 300 million liters of sustainable aviation fuel will be produced in 2022, doubling to more than 600 million liters this year. This is equivalent to a drop in the ocean of all the fuel used in the world. Although there was a significant drop during the pandemic; Approximately 360 billion liters of fuel were used by commercial airlines in 2019.

In other words, SAF represents approximately 0.17% of the total aviation fuel consumed.

It is therefore no surprise that Metafuels has decided to start forecasting from 2030. That’s when the company really ramps up production, and that’s when the market is likely to take off. A major enforcement feature is the RefuelEU aviation regulation, which sets targets for blending sustainable fuels with petroleum-compatible fuels.

Metafuels tells its story well. It provides a comprehensive picture of a rapidly growing market, in which the company has established itself as a key player.

From this slide, you can learn how to connect the “why now” part of your story to broader macro changes. If you know which way the wind is blowing, you can set up your company to make the most of it.

Let’s get geeky about technology

When building a deep tech company, the tallest pole in the tent will always be the technology itself.what do you have you Did you notice that no one else has been able to identify it?

[Slide 4] Oh yeah, talk about nerdy stuff, baby. Image credits: meta fuel

Metafuels has discovered one exception to the “investors don’t care about your product” rule. Metafuels is a deep technology company, and its failure or success will be based entirely on its ability to deliver on the technology side. Refreshingly, the three-slide set (slides 3-5) explains the process itself, how it works at scale, and how the company can produce fuel at an affordable price. is.

clear roadmap

[Slide 7] I like the clarity of Metafuels’ plan. Image credits: meta fuel

Make it work, then make it work on a small scale, then scale it to production scale. This is a very obvious route, but it’s rarely explained this clearly. Slide 10 details how the company scaled up from his 50 liters per day to 700 million liters per day. This is a tremendous scale operation.

The main takeaway from this part of the deck is to look to the future and how it can be expanded upon. In particular, having a clear understanding of unit economics (i.e., how the financials of your product change as you start increasing volumes) is often a key part of the story.

Here, Metafuels is talking about producing 1-2 liters per day and scaling it up to 700 million. That’s… a tough job. And while the manufacturing processes and factories to produce that much fuel will be more expensive, the cost per liter will be significantly lower. Metafuels tackles that beautifully with this deck.

In the rest of this teardown, we’ll take a look at three things Metafuels could have improved or done differently, as well as its full pitch deck.

Source: techcrunch.com

Climactic launches inaugural fund as partners shift focus to upcoming surge in climate technology M&A activity

Posted on December 14, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

A few years Earlier, when the pandemic was still in full swing, Raj Kapoor and Josh Felser started investing in climate change technology startups.they called their operation climax, and initially placed bets using their own money. Although we are both experienced founders, managers, and investors, this is our first time focusing on this specific sector and we started by testing the waters.

The company announced today that it has closed a $65 million founding fund and used it to support founders launching a climate technology software company.

Mr. Kapur and Mr. Felser both have long histories as investors, with Mr. Felser co-founding Freestyle Capital and Mr. Kapur spending seven years as a managing director at Mayfield Funds. They also founded and sold their own software startup.

It’s a little surprising that it took this long for the two to work together. Their resumes are strikingly similar. Felser said that in 1997 he founded Spinner (sold to AOL) and in 2004 he founded Crackle (sold to Sony). He also launched the #Climate nonprofit in 2014 and created a public-private coronavirus task force during the pandemic. Mr. Kapur previously served as chief strategy officer at Lyft, and before that he founded Snapfish (acquired by HP) and FitMob (acquired by ClassPass). He also launched a nonprofit climate social app in 2007.

Those experiences, combined with a growing concern about the state of the Earth’s climate, led the two to form Climactic.

“If we can get the top 50 supply chains to meet their net-zero goals, rather than just pay lip service, we’ll have the biggest impact,” Kapur told TechCrunch+. “To get there, we think the low-hanging fruit is software, because there are a lot of efficiencies to be gained.”

Source: techcrunch.com

Climate talks will only meet minimum requirements after hottest year in human history

Posted on December 14, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Wednesday that the era of fossil fuels “must end” and that science suggests there is no way to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) without eliminating fossil fuel use. It has been shown that it is impossible to contain, he added.

“Whether we like it or not, the phasing out of fossil fuels is inevitable.” he wrote to x. “Let’s hope it’s not too late.”

The COP28 climate summit was controversial from the start. The host country, the UAE, is rich in oil resources, and the conference chairman, Sultan Al Jaber, is the CEO of the UAE’s national oil company ADNOC.

At the beginning of the conference, Al-Jabbar addressed criticism at an online event in late November, claiming there was “no science” to support the need to phase out fossil fuels to curb global warming. I took a bath. As first reported by the Guardian.

The incident comes amid waning confidence that oil companies are working to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Big oil and gas companies have previously signaled they would do their part to transition to clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but over the past year they have walked back many of those claims. Critics have accused the industry of “greenwashing,” even as companies ramp up exploration and hundreds of new oil and gas projects are approved around the world.

Throughout the meeting, which culminated in extension negotiations, critics questioned how much could have been accomplished on fossil fuels when it was held in Dubai and led by Al Jaber. These concerns came to the forefront when it became clear that the final deal did not commit to phasing out fossil fuels.

Although the phrases “migration” and “phasing out” are similar, there are important differences between them. Phasing means that their use in the energy system is eventually eliminated, whereas “transition” represents a compromise, meaning that their use is reduced but still continues .

Nate Hartmann, a former State Department official and founder and director of the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability, said an open question heading into the meeting is whether world leaders will seriously discuss the future of fossil fuels. He said that.

“There was a risk that it could have been an exercise to avoid problems,” he said.

But Hartmann said countries should “transition” away from fossil fuels in an equitable manner, triple the amount of renewable energy installed by 2030 and step up leaks of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. He said the final agreement he is seeking makes clear that: World leaders actually envisioned a future without fossil fuels.

“The results show that this issue was not only substantively discussed, but also highlighted in the document. There are good and strong elements,” said Hartmann, who attended the 21st COP this year. Told. “Sending this kind of signal about the transition away from fossil fuels is going to be important.”

Still, the agreement is not legally binding, and its critics, especially leaders of poor developing and island nations that are disproportionately affected by climate change, argue that it does not eliminate fossil fuels. , says it is not enough to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Global warming.

Many climate scientists and activists have expressed frustration that calls for the “phasing out” of fossil fuels have been significantly weakened.

“While the COP28 consensus rightly emphasizes nature as a solution, it is unfortunate that it does not recognize the need to phase out the use of fossil fuels,” said the nonprofit National Wildlife Refuge. said Mustafa Santiago Ali, the federation’s executive vice president for conservation and justice. he said in a statement Wednesday.

Emotions were further heightened when the draft agreement was published earlier this week.goa I wrote it on Monday’s X. “COP28 is now on the brink of complete failure.”

Over the past 30 years, countries have finally realized that in order to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by around 2050 and avoid the worst consequences of climate change, countries need to transition away from fossil fuels. It was first agreed upon at the United Nations Summit.

It was hailed as a major milestone, as it merely touched on an issue that had been an issue at previous COP meetings.

“The fact that the phasing out of fossil fuels is now at the center of the international scene is in itself unimaginable five years ago, and is a huge step forward,” said the director of the Stockholm Environmental Research Institute and senior scientist. Michael Lazarus said. , based in Seattle. “That means fossil fuels now have an expiration date, an expiration date. We are at a point where we can envision a transition away from fossil fuels.”

Lazarus said the consensus nature of international processes – in which all countries participating in the deliberations have a de facto veto – makes global progress difficult.

“People talk about how it’s just words and not actions, but the arguments that come out of these international conferences have incredible resonance and have the power to change the conversation,” Lazarus said. Told. “Unless we have a sense of global action to phase out fossil fuels and reduce emissions across the board, countries will not have the same incentives to act in the ways they need to.” I guess.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The Changing Debate on Fossil Fuels at COP28: Even if the Climate Summit Fails

Posted on December 12, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

Climate change protester Risipriya Kangujam takes the stage during the COP28 debate on December 11th

Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Image

The COP28 climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has gone into extra time, with a real possibility that negotiations will fail given how far countries are separated on the future of oil, gas, and coal. It has become a target. But whatever the outcome, this summit changed the way the world talks about fossil fuels and climate change.

“The calculations are being made for fossil fuels,” he says. David Waskow at the World Resources Institute, an environmental nonprofit organization. “This has put the issue front and center and changed the conversation around it, and I hope that will continue to be the case.”

At the summit, and in the months leading up to it, many countries and many civil society organizations lobbied for strong language on phasing out fossil fuels in any deal reached in Dubai. The phasing out of fossil fuels received unexpected attention near the end of last year’s COP27 summit in Egypt, but the role of fossil fuels in driving climate change as a major source of greenhouse gas emissions has never been more important. There has never been a COP with such continuous focus.

“Even a year ago, the historic debate on phasing out fossil fuels currently taking place at COP28 was completely unthinkable,” he says. Jonas Kuehl At the International Institute for Sustainable Development, Canada. “The joint efforts of nearly 130 countries and civil society forced them into a process that has been fruitless for many years.”

The draft core agreement, published on December 11, drew heavy criticism from a number of countries and organizations yesterday for not mentioning the phasing out of fossil fuels. However, the draft does mention the need to reduce the production and use of fossil fuels and makes two other references to these fuels. This alone represents a significant change from past summits, which referred to emissions but not major sources.

“This is the first COP to actually include the word fossil fuels in a draft decision,” he said. Mohamed Addo At Powershift Africa, a Kenyan energy think tank. “This is the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.”

Summit participants are fundamentally divided on what should be included in the agreement. High-income Western countries, as well as small island states and some low-income countries such as Colombia and Kenya, are demanding stronger language on ending the use of fossil fuels to be part of the agreement. We are united. But countries that rely on oil and gas revenues, and those that consider fossil fuel development essential to future development, oppose disqualifying language.

“The United States, Canada, and Australia are all fossil fuel producers, but they are all perfectly aligned with European countries,” he says. Andrew Deutz At the Nature Conservancy. “This puts even more pressure on fossil fuel producing countries.”

Countries that oppose language phasing do so for a variety of reasons. For example, the Group of African States, while not totally opposed to such an agreement, recognizes that any agreement would have different responsibilities and timelines for phase-out, and that it is important for countries to implement energy transitions. It claims to provide support to do so.

“Asking Africa to phase out fossil fuels is like asking Africa to stop breathing without life support,” Nigeria’s Environment Minister Isiak Kunle Salako said at a press conference at the summit on December 12. African ministers also emphasized the need for further support. This is to adapt to the climate change that is already occurring.

Nigeria is part of a group of oil-exporting countries called OPEC, and its members, especially Saudi Arabia, have been the strongest opponents of the phase-out. But the overwhelming focus on fossil fuels means it may not matter in the long run.

“I think because of the pressure from oil and gas interests, if we don’t agree to phase out fossil fuels here, it’s likely to be a pyrrhic victory for them,” he said. bill hare At the think tank Climate Analytics. “They would have kept it going, but they wouldn’t have stopped it.”

A complete failure at COP28 could help build momentum towards an unjust end to the fossil fuel era, Hare says. “Next year we’ll probably see more countries wanting to phase out fossil fuels, more countries thinking about it more and putting more pressure on oil and gas producers.”

topic:

Source: www.newscientist.com

Climate Change’s Impact on Deep Sea Ecosystems

Posted on December 11, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

New research reveals that fire ice, or frozen methane, trapped as a solid under the oceans is at risk of melting due to climate change, potentially releasing large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. I did. Using advanced seismic imaging, the research team found that dissociated methane can travel significant distances, overturning previous assumptions about its stability.

Research shows that ocean fire ice, or frozen methane, is more likely to melt due to climate change and poses a significant threat to methane emissions into the atmosphere.

An international research team led by the University of Newcastle has discovered that when frozen methane and ice melt, the powerful greenhouse gas methane is released and travels from the deepest parts of continental slopes to the edges of underwater shelves. They also found a pocket that had traveled 25 miles (40 kilometers).

Publication in magazine natural earth scienceresearchers say this means more methane could potentially become vulnerable and released into the atmosphere as a result of climate warming.

Methane hydrate: the hidden climate change threat

Methane hydrate, also known as fire ice, is an ice-like structure containing methane buried under the ocean. Huge amounts of methane are stored in the ocean as marine methane. As the ocean warms, it melts, releasing methane, known as dissociated methane, into the ocean and atmosphere, contributing to global warming.

The researchers used advanced three-dimensional seismic imaging techniques to examine sections of hydrate that have dissociated during climate warming off the coast of Mauritania in northwest Africa. They identified specific cases where dissociated methane traveled more than 40 kilometers and was released through underwater depressions known as pockmarks during warm periods in the past.

Researchers at Newcastle University have found that frozen methane trapped on the ocean floor is more likely to melt due to climate change and could be released into the ocean.Credit: Newcastle University

Discovery and its impact

Professor Richard Davies, lead author and Vice-Chancellor for Global and Sustainability at Newcastle University, said: . Our study shows that they formed as methane released from hydrates from the deepest parts of the continental slope spewed into the ocean. Scientists previously thought these hydrates would be less susceptible to climate warming, but it turns out some are more susceptible. ”

Researchers have previously studied how changes in seafloor temperatures near continental margins affect methane release from hydrates. However, these studies mainly focused on regions where only a small fraction of the earth’s methane hydrate exists. This is one of the few studies to investigate methane emissions from the bottom of hydrate stability zones deep underwater. The results show that the methane released from the hydrate stability zone migrated a significant distance towards land.

Broader research perspective and future plans

Professor Christian Berndt, Head of the Ocean Geodynamics Research Unit at GEOMAR in Kiel, Germany, added:

“This is an important finding. Previous research efforts have focused on the shallowest part of the hydrate stability zone, because we thought this was the only part that would be susceptible to climate change.

“New data clearly shows that far greater amounts of methane can be released from ocean hydrates, and a thorough understanding of this fact is needed to better understand the role of hydrates in the climate system. need to be clarified.”

Methane is the second most common anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2). Methane accounts for about 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency figures.

The findings could play an important role in predicting and addressing methane’s impact on a changing climate.

The researchers plan to continue looking for evidence of methane vents along the margin and predict where large methane seeps may occur as the planet warms. Researchers are now planning a scientific expedition to examine the pockmarks more closely and see if they can be more closely linked to past climate warming events.

Reference: “Long-distance transport and emissions of methane from the base of the hydrate stability zone” Richard J. Davies, Jinxiu Yang, Mark T. Ireland, Christian Berndt, Miguel Ángel Morales Maqueda, Mads Huuse, December 6, 2023 , natural earth science.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01333-w

Source: scitechdaily.com

New findings on ancient climate analysis suggest that CO2 is contributing to more warming than previously believed

Posted on December 7, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

A diagram of Earth 65 million years ago, when CO2 levels were much higher than today.

Chris Butler/Science Photo Library

Perhaps the most difficult question in climate science. That is, how much global warming does carbon dioxide cause? A new analysis of 66 million years of Earth’s climate history suggests that the Earth is far more sensitive to greenhouse gases than current climate models predict, which could lead to even warmer temperatures in the long term. This means that there is a possibility of further development.

A key factor determining the impact of our emissions on the planet is how much the planet warms in response to the extra CO2 we pump into the atmosphere. This sensitivity is affected by various feedback loops related to clouds, melting ice sheets, and other influences.

One way to measure this sensitivity is to look at how the climate has changed in the past. Gases trapped in ice cores can only take us back about 800,000 years, so to go even further back in time to look at temperatures and CO2 levels in the atmosphere, researchers used proxies. Masu. For example, the density of pores in plant leaves and the isotope levels in the fossil shells of marine organisms change in response to CO2 levels.

However, discrepancies between different proxies have led to an uncertain view of Earth’s ancient climate. Now, an extensive review by a team of over 80 researchers provides a clearer picture. More accurate representation of ancient CO2 levels. “We now have a much clearer picture of what carbon dioxide levels have been in the past,” he says. Berber Henisch He coordinated the project at Columbia University in New York.

This allows us to understand current CO2 levels in the atmosphere alongside the deep past. This indicates that the last time CO2 levels were as consistently high as they are now was about 14 million years ago, and much earlier than that. previous estimate.

By comparing this new CO2 data with temperature records, “we can learn how sensitive the climate has been to changes in carbon dioxide,” Hoenisch says. Current climate models estimate that doubling his CO2 levels in the atmosphere would result in a warming of 1.5°C to 4.5°C. However, the results suggest that the temperature increase is even larger, between 5°C and 8°C.

However, there is a big caveat. This new insight into the history of Earth’s deep climate covers trends over hundreds of thousands of years, rather than the short timescales of decades or centuries that are relevant to humanity today, and therefore It doesn’t tell you what the temperature is likely to be. “It’s a slow cascading effect that slowly kicks in,” Hoenisch says.

The vast time scales covered in this study also mean that details of climate sensitivity cannot be detected. michael man Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania say climate sensitivities may have been different at other times in Earth’s history compared to today, which is likely why the study yielded higher estimates than those based on more recent periods. I think this explains why I got there.

“The bottom line is that the climate sensitivity estimates from this study probably don’t apply to current anthropogenic warming,” Mann says. “Nonetheless, this study confirms a very close relationship between CO2 and global temperatures, highlighting the continuing threat of fossil fuel combustion.”

topic:

Source: www.newscientist.com

The Surprising Role of NASA in Tackling the Climate Crisis

Posted on November 19, 2023 by Igor Mitreski

Flaring, the deliberate burning of excess natural gas into the atmosphere, is one way methane is released from oil and gas facilities. His EMIT mission for NASA, over more than a year of operation, demonstrated its proficiency in discovering methane and other greenhouse gas emissions from space.

Since its launch 16 months ago, the EMIT imaging spectrometer has international space station demonstrated the ability to detect more than just surface minerals. More than a year after first detecting a methane plume from its perch on the International Space Station (ISS), data from NASA’s EMIT instrument is now being used to analyze greenhouse gas emissions with a level of proficiency that surprised even its designers. used to identify source emissions.

EMIT‘s mission and capabilities

EMIT, which stands for Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation, was launched in July 2022 to map 10 major minerals on the surface of the world’s arid regions. Mineral-related observations are already available. researcher and the general public to better understand how dust in the atmosphere affects the climate.

Methane detection was not part of EMIT‘s primary mission, but the instrument’s designers expected the imaging spectrometer to have that capability. More than 750 sources of emissions have been identified since August 2022, some of which are small, located in remote areas, and persistent over long periods of time, according to a new study published in the journal However, this device is said to have achieved more than sufficient results in that respect. scientific progress.

EMIT identified a cluster of 12 methane plumes within a 150 square mile (400 square kilometer) area in southern Uzbekistan on September 1, 2022. The instrument captured this cluster, which the researchers call a “scene,” in a single shot.

Credit: NASA/JPL-California Institute of Technology

Methane emissions and climate change

“We were a little cautious at first about what this device could do,” said Andrew Thorpe, a research engineer on the EMIT science team. NASAis a researcher at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and the paper’s lead author. “It exceeded our expectations.”

Knowing where methane emissions are coming from gives operators of landfills, agricultural sites, oil and gas facilities, and other methane-producing facilities the opportunity to address methane emissions. Tracking human methane emissions is key to limiting climate change because it provides a relatively low-cost and rapid approach to reducing greenhouse gases. Methane remains in the atmosphere for about 10 years, during which time it traps heat up to 80 times more strongly than carbon dioxide, which remains for centuries.

When strong winds kick up mineral rock dust(such as calcite or chlorite) on one continent, the airborne particles can travel thousands of miles and impact an entirely different continent. Airborne dust can heat or cool the atmosphere and the ground. This heating or cooling effect is the focus of NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission.

Credit: NASA/JPL-California Institute of Technology

amazing results

EMIT has proven effective in detecting both large-scale sources (tens of thousands of pounds of methane per hour) and surprisingly small sources (hundreds of pounds of methane per hour). It has been. This is important because it will allow us to identify more “superemitters,” or sources that produce a disproportionate share of total emissions.

A new study documents how EMIT was able to observe 60% to 85% of the methane plumes typically seen during airborne operations, based on the first 30 days of greenhouse gas detections.

On September 3, 2022, EMIT detected a methane plume emitting approximately 979 pounds (444 kilograms) per hour in a remote corner of southeastern Libya. This is one of the smallest sources ever detected by this instrument.

Credit: NASA/JPL-California Institute of Technology

Comparison with airborne detection

From thousands of feet above the ground, an aircraft’s methane detection equipment is more sensitive, but researchers need advance notice that they will detect methane before the aircraft can be dispatched. Many areas are not explored because they are considered too remote, too dangerous, or too expensive. Furthermore, actual campaigns cover a relatively limited area over a short period of time.

EMIT, on the other hand, will collect data from a space station at an altitude of about 400 kilometers, covering a wide area of the Earth, especially the arid region between 51.6 degrees north and 51.6 degrees south latitude. The imaging spectrometer produces a 50-mile-by-50-mile (80-kilometer-by-80-kilometer) image of the Earth’s surface (researchers call it a “scene”), including many areas that could not be reached with airborne instruments. capture.

“The number and size of methane plumes that EMIT has measured around our planet is astonishing,” said Robert O. Green. JPL Senior Researcher and Principal Investigator at EMIT.

NASA EMIT

We created this time-lapse video showing the International Space Station’s Canadarm2 robotic arm moving NASA’s EMIT mission outside the station. The Dragon spacecraft was launched…

Posted by NASA EMIT on Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Detection by scene

To help identify sources, the EMIT science team created maps of methane plumes and identified them as Websitethe underlying data are available at the NASA and U.S. Geological Survey Joint Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LPDAAC). Data from this mission will be available to the public, scientists, and organizations.

EMIT began collecting observations in August 2022 and has since recorded more than 50,000 scenes. The instrument discovered clusters of emission sources in little-studied areas. Southern Uzbekistan On September 1, 2022, we detected 12 methane plumes totaling approximately 49,734 pounds (22,559 kilograms) per hour.

Additionally, the instrument detected a much smaller plume than expected.captured in a secluded corner Southeastern Libya On September 3, 2022, one of the smallest sources to date was emitting 979 pounds (444 kilograms) per hour, based on local wind speed estimates.

Reference: “Attribution of Individual Methane and Carbon Dioxide Sources Using EMIT Observations from Space” Andrew K. Thorpe, Robert O. Green, David R. Thompson, Philip G. Brodrick, John W. Chapman, Clayton D. Elder, Itziar, Iraklis-Leuchert, Daniel H. Cusworth, Alana K. Ayasse, Riley M. Duren, Christian Frankenberg, Louis Gunter, John R. Warden, Philip.・E. Dennison, Dar A. Roberts, K. Dana Chadwick, Michael L. Eastwood, Jay E. Farren and Charles E. Miller, November 17, 2023, scientific progress.

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh2391

EMIT mission details

EMIT was selected from the Earth Venture Instrument-4 public offering by NASA’s Science Mission Directorate’s Earth Sciences Division and was developed at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, California. Data from this instrument is publicly available for use by other researchers and the public at the NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center.

Source: scitechdaily.com

1. Switzerland has lost 10 percent of its glaciers in the past two years

2. On any given day in 2023, a third of the oceans experienced a heatwave.

3. The cost of inaction on climate change could be staggering.

4. Antarctic winter sea ice was 1 million km2 below the previous record

About our experts

Reduce, Reuse, Recycle

Let’s Start With One Thing

make (bigger) waves

Stormy weather forecast

New research reveals that Earth’s geological history is tied not only to the planet’s interior, but also to its astronomical movements.

Astronomical cycles and Earth’s climate

Volcanic eruptions and geological phenomena

Flaws in prediction methods revealed

Inaccuracies in space and time substitutions

Rainfall effects and final thoughts

life in a mansion

Applying new coatings to exterior surfaces can reduce air conditioning usage and help fight climate change.

Cooling mechanism with two functions

State-of-the-art durable materials

Climate change solutions and global impacts

This deck slide

3 things to love

Is it a bird? Is it an airplane?No, the market size is skyrocketing

Let’s get geeky about technology

clear roadmap

Methane hydrate: the hidden climate change threat

Discovery and its impact

Broader research perspective and future plans

4. Antarctic winter sea ice was 1 million km² below the previous record