The heavy storm system that floods the central and southeastern US with heavy rain and winds fits a wider pattern as rainfall has increased over the eastern US half has increased in recent decades.
Data from the National Maritime and Atmospheric Administration from 1991 to 2020 show that on average the eastern part of the country received more rain, on average, than in the 20th century. At the same time, precipitation decreased in the west.
The sharp East-West division is consistent with predictions from climate scientists who expect wet areas to be wet, with dry areas becoming dry as the world warms.
Without further analysis, individual storms cannot be linked to climate change, but warming the air will result in greater rainfall. This is because warm air has the ability to retain more moisture than cooler air, and has the potential to be fueled due to overall average precipitation, and more intense storms.
The world’s temperatures are increasing year by year, driven by the combustion of fossil fuels that send greenhouse gases that warm the planets into the atmosphere. According to a recent report, the 10 people have been the hottest recordkeeping for nearly 200 years. World Weather Organization.
“When there are these very heavy rain events, trends refer to the heavy trends of these intense events,” said Deanna, an associate professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign University.
Severe flooding could be an indirect effect of warming air and increased moisture, according to Gerald Brotzge, a Kentucky national climate scientist and director of the Kentucky Climate Center. If conditions stall a storm system, it can cause heavy rain in the same area, increasing the risk of flooding.
This is what happened when the storm recently stagnated in the region. “I think it’s a once-at-a-time event based on the amount and area covered,” Brotzge said.
Mark Jarvis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Louisville, Kentucky, described the storm as two. It brought tornadoes, strong winds and hail to the front end, then stalled and dropped historic amounts of rainfall. Western Kentucky, who saw some of the most serious effects of the storm, “it was in the eyes of the bull,” he said.
Heavy rain and flooding are common in Ohio Valley in late winter and early spring, but the system is as common as it is “very rare” for rain. “That’s what you normally see in hurricanes and tropical systems,” he said..
Storm damage is constantly happening, but the possibility that climate change is increasing them is Observed weather trendstherefore Mr.
She said that even in the western half of the United States, which is generally dry, the coming precipitation tends to drop at more extreme levels.
She called it “very eye-opening,” adding, “it’s not particularly comfortable to think we have more of this.”
NASA’s funding cuts have already impacted US research and education programs
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NASA has cancelled contracts and grants worth up to $420 million, following guidance from the Trump administration’s government efficiency (DOGE). The reductions will impact research projects and education programs in the United States, but NASA says it’s perfect for checking exactly which organizations are affected.
After Doge, an independent task force led by tech billionaire Elon Musk, NASA confirmed the amount but refused to specify which programs were cancelled. Casey Drier The Planetary Association, a California-based nonprofit organization, list of a program that has recently lost funds using the agency’s public grant database. NASA has since deleted the database and did not respond to questions about the accuracy of the list.
Much of the cuts on Dreyer’s list coincides with President Donald Trump’s skepticism about climate science and his administration’s active targets regarding his interpretation of the Diversity, Equality and Inclusion (DEI) program.
Climate-related cancellations include a Massachusetts Institute of Technology project that uses satellite sensors to map the impacts of extreme heat, air pollution and flooding. Another target was a University of Oklahoma study to develop digital twin simulations that predict the impact of flooding on tribal lands.
However, it is unclear why NASA has ended support for other research, such as using bioengineering cells to investigate how spaceflight affects the human body and modelling how lunar dust can contaminate future lunar missions.
NASA spokesman Bethany Stevens said New Scientist The agency is “to work with the Ministry of Government Efficiency initiative to optimize the workforce and resources.” Doge urged agencies across the US government to cut funding or shut down altogether.
But it says that ongoing grants and contract cancellations will fly in the face of a “strict” review process that selected them in the first place as “the most scientifically appropriate proposal.” Michael Batario At Yale University. “Politics cannot and should not define what is scientifically worth studying at the level of individual grants,” says Batario, who is studying the atmosphere of Mars and Titan in preparation for future missions.
“DEI related cuts get me the most out of the way.” Bruce Jacoski He was the lead scientist at NASA’s Maven Mission to Mars at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “These grants are about reaching out to underrepresented groups and making people accessible to training and education. None of them appears to promote people who are less qualified than more qualified.”
For example, NASA cut funding for a conference hosted by the National Association of Black Physicists, a longtime nonprofit that promotes the professional well-being of African-American physicists and physics students. “We were told that the reason for cancelling the contract is to comply with the president’s executive order regarding the DEI,” he said. Stephen Robersonpresident of the National Association of Black Physics. “We would like to appeal this decision and explain further why an annual conference, in which people of all races and academic levels present scientific research, is considered a DEI.”
New Scientist They reached out to researchers and organizations that they thought were affected, but few responded to the National Association of Black Physicists. The San Diego Aerospace Museum, featured on Drayer’s list, said NASA’s funding for educational events appears to be still intact, despite the NASA database indicating changes to the grant’s end date. NASA did not respond to requests to verify the status of this fund.
During the winter there was a little bird gush to lift my heart. There are no occasional caw caw, chickadee dee of chickadee, big songs of little carolina rens that stay on our Pennsylvania farms throughout the winter, but no great horned owl courtship calls, nor wooden thrush or Baltimore orioles. Still, I was delighted with the music that was left behind.
However, we just heard the first notes of our first returning songbird, and with a red-winged blackbird, the snowdrop began to protrude from the ground.
The other day I forced their flowers to move last fall potted tulips and hyacinths from the unheated side of the barn into the warmth of the garden room. However, the vegetable garden is a puddle of icy mud, and the flowerbeds are still finely covered with leaves, showing little signs of life. The boxwood is covered in burlap and the snow fence is covered around trees and shrubs to prevent deer from being devoured.
The deer, which has changed from the color of milk chocolate to dark, breaks through the makeshift deterrent, eating Ee, Eunee Mauss, Treehouse, and this winter, Holly. The squirrels are running around joining their radar, but the chipmunks are still nowhere to be seen. I think they are in their dens that I think opossums, raccoons and bears are.
I’ve been waiting for a greenhouse, but now I’m hoping to hibernate in the winter and take a break from sowing, potting and growing. To walk through snowy forests and observe animal tracks, study ice patterns in the pond and make it seasonal. I would like to read in the Fire and Skilled Garden Catalog. Imagine what the garden will look like next year, and hope that next year will be better than last time, as all gardeners do. As Vita Sackville-West wrote in her poem, “The Garden:”
The gardener dreams of his own special alloy
Possibility and impossible.
But what is possible now? Looking back at last year’s terrible season, how do you adapt to the changes I witness?
A year ago, the winter was very warm, the shrub barely died, and last spring, a welcome sight dripping with leaves, but not normal. Spring was so hot that I missed out on a nice, cool window for the transplant. Early season, I didn’t know when to plant ruthless vegetables, and when to produce soft plants, not 85 degrees.
“After the danger of frost” is a general wisdom, but when is that? my Plant hardiness zone I’ve recently shifted as the coldest temperatures in my area are three degrees higher than in 2012. But even that new guidance didn’t help me.
Mid May felt like mid-June. It was then arriving on May 29th.
Anyway, I planted poppies in April (they like cool weather), but the seeds were washed away by the flood. There was a drought between June and November. The grass was brown. Dogwood and Tulip Poplar lost their leaves in July. My vegetable garden resembles a cracked riverbed. The soil was very hard and weeding was almost impossible.
The stream was dry so I saw deer walking into the pond and drinking for the first time in 36 years. Small food was available for them, so they distorted to our garage and ate deer-bearing lavender. Walking through the forest, I was impressed by the lack of growth underneath, especially the huge patch of nettle nettle from North American origin, the host plant for Admiral Akagi and the butterfly in Eastern Comma. Chanteles never bear fruit in normal places. I was worried that our spring would dry out.
Pennsylvania saw record wildfires in the fall. Usually, the two lilacs that appear in the spring bloom in October, and in late November I was harvesting something that I had not yet grown.
All of this reminds me of a radio show called “Piano Puzzlers.” My husband and I listen to it on Saturday mornings. Composer Bruce Adolf rewrites songs that are familiar to the classic composer’s style. He changes the tempo, harmony, or mode of the tune, and the contestants try to name the song and the composer. Imagine “a bit of a jude” in Brahms style. Somewhere in my brain, the song sounds familiar, but something is off. The music is misplaced. Sometimes I guess correctly. In many cases, it is not.
Climate change gardening is the same. Confusing and there are many speculations.
What should a home gardener do?
“The only predictable thing is that it becomes unpredictable,” said Sonja Skelly, director of education at Cornell Botanical Gardens in Ithaca, New York, “it was crazy too.”
Last spring was hot in Ithaca, so vegetable gardeners began planting two weeks before the frost-free date on May 31st. Extreme temperature fluctuations were then created, but the plants that just started were better as they were established. Things planted on the target day were stunted and were in poor growth period. “A good lesson,” Dr. Skelly said. The line covering that allows gardeners to get and grow plants later in the season “is really important in a climate like ours,” she said.
Covered crops such as millet, sorghum and black-eyed peas have been successful in botanical gardens. They improve moisture retention, reduce weeds, reduce erosion, and limit negative microorganisms in the soil. The birds love them, Dr. Skelly said.
She recommended planting together what the Haudeno Sauny people call three sisters, corn, beans and squash. The system produces better yields per hectare than any monoculture crop system, she said.
Drip irrigation is another solution, Dr. Skelly said. “It adds moisture where it is needed at the roots,” she said. The water is slowly released and remains laid down, and does not escape as with manual watering or using sprinklers.
“Observe, take notes, ask questions, ask for answers,” advised Dr. Skelly. “What are your neighbors watching?” I’ve been working on this issue for a while, learning through going to local botanical gardens, public gardens and nature centres. “Try to keep the information cycle running and talk to friends, family and neighbors as a way to help you understand it. That’s very important,” she said.
Dr. Skelly believes it is important for home gardeners to truly understand their plants. “Climate change may be a way to get to know our gardens much better,” she said. “We have to do it.”
For a long time I relied on experts who taught me how to garden responsibly. Do not harm the environment. I have learned to plant a variety of plants, including pollinator natives, and celebrate native weeds like Freeben. I’m practicing planting companions. I don’t spray pesticides or pesticides, and instead use compost, I make my own from comfrey and stinging nettles instead. I wish I could buy plants from something other than plastic.
But the more we contemplate gardening in an age of climate change, the more we believe our home gardeners must find many solutions for themselves. Much of gardening is trial and error, and unstable weather patterns mean that we must experiment more to do our own research. Essentially, we must become citizen scientists in our own vegetable patches and flowerbeds.
Cornell Botanic Garden has a garden for climate demonstrations, but in fact we all do. None of us had experienced this. And in the end, we’re all together. You will navigate a strange new world of digging the soil and growing things.
The collection of Daryln Brewer Hoffstot’s essay, “A Farm Life: Observations from Fields and Forests,” was published by Stackpole Books.
The Supreme Court on Monday concluded its 10-year journey through the court, refusing to hear appeals in a groundbreaking climate case brought to the federal government by 21 young people.
However, the case provided a blueprint for many other climate-related lawsuits that have achieved greater success.
Juliana v. the United States alleged that the government violated the plaintiffs’ constitutional rights with policies that encourage the use of fossil fuels. However, it was dismissed by the U.S. Court of Appeals in the Ninth Circuit, and the judge ruled that the court was not the right place to deal with climate change.
“In fact, the impressive case of plaintiff relief must be presented to the political sector of the government,” wrote Judge Andrew D. Harwitz. Opinions for 2020.
The nonprofit law firm in Eugene, Oregon, which represents the plaintiffs, filed the final legal gambit in a lawsuit last year. Last year, she threw the Supreme Court’s decision back on the Court of Appeals and asked Juliana to go to trial in a lower court. The petition was rejected Monday.
Some observers also thought it was risky to ask the Supreme Court to consider appeals, given concerns that conservative courts might use the case to abandon long-standing environmental protections.
The plaintiff in the case is Kelsey Cascadia Rose Juliana, a now 29-year-old Oregon teacher, the environmentalist and longtime climate activist daughter. The story of how she became involved in the lawsuit was documented in the documentary “Youthv. Gov.”
Juliana’s legal framework has since been replicated in numerous lawsuits and legal actions across the country. And last year, our child’s trust, which submitted many cases, recorded two notable victories.
The group has reached a settlement between Navahine v. Hawaii Department. There, the state agreed to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas that warms the planet from its transport system within 20 years. And that’s a hold v. We won in Montana. There, the judge ruled that the state must consider climate change when approving a fossil fuel project. The Court of Appeals upheld the decision in December.
The plaintiff named in that case led to the decision to take part in the case as 23-year-old Ricky grew up on a cattle ranch in Montana and saw the effects of climate change firsthand. She is currently a science educator through the Peace Corps of Kenya.
On Monday, she said the Juliana incident paved the way for her. “Juliana left an indelible mark on the climate lawsuit landscape through the unwavering dedication of the plaintiffs and legal team,” she said.
Julia Olson, founder of Our Children’s Trust, had asked the Biden administration to discuss the settlement in the Juliana case. She said on Monday that Juliana “littles a legal movement.”
However, Justice Department lawyers argued that the court was not set up correctly to address climate change as judges were unable to order or enforce “viable relief” on the matter.
Some experts also raised concerns about the organization’s strategy in the Supreme Court, focusing on the risk that a conservative vast majority of courts could adopt Juliana’s case as a way to rethink legal precedents that will take root in environmental protection.
In an interview last year, Vermont law and graduate environmental law expert Patrick Derprue said: “If you need an answer to this question, you probably don’t like the answer you’re trying to get.”
However, he added that he still praises the efforts of the youth and their lawyers.
Olson said environmentalists should not move away from the courts. “If we don’t show up, don’t advance our claims, don’t shed light on injustice, then other forces will always win,” she said.
Staff cuts have impacted work at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Kristoffer Tripplaar / Alamy
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says it will “stop” monthly calls to update reporters on seasonal weather forecasts and global climate conditions.
A NOAA spokesman says recent cuts, resignation and resignation under President Donald Trump's control have led to staffing issues that have led to agents “no longer able to support them.” But they say every month Report It will be edited and continued to be published by the National Center for Environmental Information, operated by NOAA.
He says another reason the agency is closing calls could be due to fear of employees violating the new administration by talking about climate change. Tom Di RivatoNOAA's genius scientist and public relations specialist who was fired during widespread cuts in February. “They don't want to get stuck between telling the truth and then riding on the wrong side of a political appointee,” he says.
During the monthly call, NOAA scientists will provide you with updates on a variety of predictions and measurements the agency has created. In addition to information on global land and ocean temperatures, the description includes information on seasonal weather forecasts and droughts in the United States. These calls also give reporters the opportunity to ask questions to help them better understand new information.
In past briefings, researchers openly discussed the role of human-induced climate change in driving at record high temperatures. But last month's call – first held under the new administration – NOAA researchers declined to mention climate change when discussing record global temperatures in January. The call ended later New Scientist We asked the researchers directly to see what role climate change played at high temperatures.
Di Liberto says the agency has not explicitly directed researchers, let alone climate change. However, he knows from his current contact with staff there is an atmosphere of fear about saying the wrong thing.
“It's a fear of being cut, but I'm also afraid that the work they're doing is trying to help people, or that they're being told they can't say what they can say based on science,” he says.
Since January, the administration has fired almost 1,000 people from government agencies, and hundreds more have resigned. The government is It reportedly plans to cut more than 1,000 employeesone-tenth of the agency's workforce.
In the section on “Labor Market Risks”, the report indicates that the impact on jobs will be “serious”, particularly with highly capable AI agents (tools that can perform tasks without human intervention). Caution is advised.
“General-purpose AI has the ability to automate a wide range of tasks, potentially leading to significant impact on the labor market. This could result in job loss.”
The report also mentions that while some economists believe that job losses due to automation may be offset by new job creation in non-automated sectors.
According to the International Monetary Fund, about 60% of jobs in advanced economies like the US and UK are at risk of automation, with half of those jobs being potentially impacted negatively. The Tony Blair Institute suggests that AI could displace up to 3 million jobs in the UK, but also create new roles in industries transitioning to AI, which could bring in hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The report mentions that if autonomous AI agents can complete tasks over extended periods without human supervision, the consequences could be particularly severe.
It cites Some experts who have raised concerns about a future where work is mostly eliminated. In 2023, Elon Musk predicted that AI could eventually render human work obsolete, but the report acknowledges uncertainty about how AI will impact the labor market.
2. environment
The report discusses AI’s environmental impact due to its electricity consumption during training, labeling it as a “moderate but growing contributor” through data centers, which are crucial for AI model operation.
Data centers and data transmission contribute about 1% to energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, with AI accounting for up to 28% of data center energy consumption.
The report also raises concerns about the increasing energy consumption as models become more advanced, noting that a significant portion of global model training relies on high-carbon energy sources such as coal and natural gas. It points out that without the use of renewable energy and efficiency improvements, AI development could hinder progress towards environmental goals by adding to energy demand.
Furthermore, the report highlights the potential threat to human rights and the environment posed by AI’s water consumption for cooling data center devices. However, it acknowledges that AI’s environmental impact is not yet fully understood.
3. Control loss
The report addresses concerns about the emergence of superintelligent AI systems that could surpass human control, raising fears about the disappearance of humanity. While these concerns are acknowledged, opinions vary on the likelihood of such events.
Bengio stated that AI systems capable of autonomously carrying out tasks are still in development, preventing these systems from executing the long-term planning necessary for widespread job displacement. He emphasized that without the ability to plan long-term, AI would remain under human control.
4. Bioweapons
The report mentions the potential of AI models in creating step-by-step instructions for developing pathogens and toxins beyond the expertise of PhD-level professionals. However, it raises concerns about the possibility of misuse by inexperienced individuals.
Progress has been observed in developing models capable of supporting professionals in reproducing known biological threats, according to experts.
5. Cyber security
From a cybersecurity perspective, AI’s rapid growth includes autonomous bots capable of identifying vulnerabilities in open-source software and generating code that can be freely downloaded and adapted. However, the current limitation is that AI technology cannot autonomously plan or execute cyber attacks.
6. Deep fake
The report highlights instances where AI-generated deep fakes have been maliciously used. However, it notes a lack of data to fully quantify the extent of deep fake manipulation.
The report suggests that addressing issues like digital watermark deletion in AI-generated content is a fundamental task in combatting deep fake content.
A new report states that the modern and dry winds that have been dried at high temperatures led to the fire in the Southern California have been about 35 % higher due to climate change.
The survey results are from a world meteorological group that analyzes the effects of global warming on extreme events.
The fire killed at least 29 people and destroyed more than 16,000 buildings.
The International Scientist Group has increased the extreme situation of climate change in the extreme situation that recent fires have made RO sounds in the Los Angeles area as a whole.
A strong state of dry winds at high temperatures ahead of the fire could have been about 35 % higher due to global warming caused by humans. New reports from the World Meteorological attribute groupWe analyze the effects of global warming on extreme events.
The fire, which began in the event of a fierce storm in the spring, killed at least 29 people, including houses, shops, and schools, as it had not been raining in the Great Los Angeles since spring.
“This was a perfect storm for the conditions of the fire disaster. From the viewpoint of the climate that enables the climate, the weather that drives the fire, and the huge environment from the place where these ignitions occurred.” Merced, who contributed to the report at the University of California, said at a press conference.
Compared to the time before the industrial revolution before fossil fuels were widely used, the Los Angeles area had a “dry season” on average every year, and the fire may match the seasonal Santaanana style. Is high. 。
Park Williams, a geographical professor at the University of Los Angeles, the University of California, said Park Williams in the cool season of Southern California. Unusually dry state; Ignition (almost always comes from people); and extreme weather like recent storms. He explained each of these conditions as an individual switch in a system that needs to be turned over all four to emit light.
“The artificial warming caused by climate change caused by humans makes light brighter,” said Williams.
The author in the report analyzes the weather and climate models to evaluate how the warm atmosphere changes the possibility of fire (it means a condition that increases the risk of mountain fire). They also tracked how metrics called the fire weather index changed over time. The index tracks all factors that contribute to temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and fire.
Researchers have discovered that the types of conditions that promote the fire in the LA region are expected to occur once every 17 years in today's climate. Such a state would have been predicted once in 23 years without climate change, and it would not have been so extreme when they occurred.
The high seawater temperature that contributed to the weather of California’s storm in late 2023
Kevin Carter/Getty Image
Researchers say the rapid increase in marine temperature up to the level of the record breaking in 2023 and 2024 is a sign that the pace of climate change has accelerated.
The world marine temperature reached a record high for 450 days in 2023 and early 2024. The Ehninho’s weather pattern, which appears in the Pacific Ocean, can explain some of the extra heat, but about 44 % of the recorded warmth is decreasing to the world. According to the sea, which absorbs heat from the sun, the acceleration speed Christmer chat At a British lady university.
Merchants and his colleagues have analyzed marine warming over the past 40 years using satellite data, concluding that the speed of warming has been more than four times since 1985.
The team says that this rapid acceleration depends on the rapid change of the EEI of the earth’s energy. This is the scale of how much heat is trapped in the atmosphere. The EEI has doubled since 2010, and the sea has absorbed much more heat than before.
“The sea generally sets a pace of global warming,” says a merchant. “Therefore, as an extension, global warming is accelerating as a whole, including land.” Merchants are “I personally convinced that accelerating climate change is a major factor in recent marine temperature increase. I say. “
Based on their analysis, merchants and his team predict that marine warming will continue to increase rapidly in the next few decades. “If the tendency of the EEI is out of the future, a large amount of global warming can be expected in the next 20 years, as in the past 40 years.
The climate model hopes that the speed of climate change will accelerate, but the analysis of the merchant suggests that the trend of the real world is in line with the most pessimistic model forecast. “The fact that this data -driven analysis is placed in a high -end high -end that the model predicted is a problem that needs to be viewed,” he says.
However, early data suggests that EEI decreased in 2024 after a recorded spike in 2023. Some researchers argue that this data may not accelerate in the worst scenario.
The concept of Marine Cloud Brightening revolves around the idea that by making clouds brighter or whiter, more sunlight is reflected back into space. This ultimately helps reduce the amount of heat absorbed by Earth’s atmosphere and offers a respite from the effects of increased carbon emissions.
Clouds in marine environments are believed to benefit the most from such brightening efforts. But how exactly does one go about brightening clouds, and does it work as effectively as theorized?
Scientists primarily suggest spraying aerosols, such as fine sea salt particles, to brighten clouds. These aerosols act as “condensation nuclei” within the clouds, promoting water vapor to form more liquid droplets and creating denser, brighter clouds. A similar effect can be seen with pollution particles.
Fun fact: Some clouds can contain 500,000 kg (or £ 1.1 million) of water. That’s about 100 elephants -Photo Credit: Getty
However, the challenge lies in ensuring the particles sprayed are of the right size to effectively brighten the clouds at the appropriate time. Additionally, achieving significant sunlight reflection requires scaling up the operation sufficiently. There is also the concern of unforeseen impacts on clouds and climate.
Current research efforts mainly involve small-scale experiments and computer simulations, though some real-world studies have raised questions. For instance, a bright cloud experiment in Arameda, California was halted in May following warnings from local authorities reported in the media.
Experts have suggested that useful insights can be gleaned from “natural” experiments as well. Observations near the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii showed that aerosols generated naturally during the eruption led to a 50% increase in cloud cover. 。
Ultimately, the decision on whether to pursue large-scale marine cloud brightening rests with policymakers, who require convincing evidence. As scientific understanding and the climate crisis evolve, attitudes may shift.
This article addresses the question (I asked from Besariany Shepherd, Derbyshire) “Is Marine Cloud Brightening useful for fighting climate change?”
To submit a question, please email questions@sciencefocus.com or send a message via our Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram Page (remember to include your name and location).
For fascinating science facts, visit our fun fact page.
Donald Trump holds executive order announcing the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement
Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
On January 20, a crowd at a stadium in Washington, D.C., erupted in cheers as U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order pulling the United States out of the Paris climate accord on stage. of order He said the move was to prioritize “America first.” But environmental groups condemned the decision, saying that withdrawing the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter from the agreement would simultaneously cede U.S. influence in international negotiations to rival clean energy giant China. , argued that it would make climate change even worse.
“This is an issue where the United States and the Trump administration are shooting themselves in the foot,” he says. David Waskow at the World Resources Institute, a global environmental nonprofit organization. “That would be ignoring the United States.”
This is the second time President Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is a landmark agreement reached in 2015 to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages. It took three years for the initial withdrawal in 2017 to be formalized under UN treaty provisions, and the US only left for a few months before former President Joe Biden rejoined the country in 2021.
The deal now requires a year for withdrawal to be formally recognized, at which point the U.S. will be the only major economy not part of the deal. Other countries that have not signed are Libya, Yemen and Iran.
“This is definitely not good news for international climate action,” he says. Li Shuo At the Asian Social Policy Institute in Washington, DC. Unlike the United States' first withdrawal, this second withdrawal came at a time when the country's ambitious emissions reduction ambitions were already facing geopolitical, social, and economic obstacles. he says. Last year saw record levels of global emissions, while average global temperatures rose above 1.5°C for the first time.
A U.S. withdrawal would leave the country with no leverage to drive further emissions cuts, potentially creating an excuse for countries around the world to scale back efforts to tackle climate change. “The momentum of climate change around the world was declining even before President Trump was elected,” Lee said.
But Waskow said the U.S. withdrawal does not mean “the bottom has dropped” in global climate action. Countries responsible for more than 90 percent of global emissions are still committed to the Paris Agreement. Wind and solar energy, electric vehicles, batteries and other clean technologies also play a much bigger role in the global economy now than they did when the U.S. first left, he said.
“The rest of the world is also transitioning to clean energy,” he says. Manish Bapna at the Natural Resources Defense Council, a U.S. environmental advocacy group. “This doesn't stop that transition, it slows it down.” But it raises questions about what role the U.S. will play in shaping that future, he says.
Looming is China, which controls many of the key clean energy industries, from solar panels to batteries, and is increasingly exporting its technology to the rest of the world. “The United States would not only be ceding influence over how those markets are formed, but also the duration of those markets,” Waskow said. “I don't think other countries think of the United States first when they think about who they should engage with.”
The global retreat from climate action also comes as the new Trump administration moved quickly to reverse, abandon, or block the policies of its predecessor in a flurry of executive orders issued on its first day in office. These include banning federal permits for wind energy and reversing policies introduced by Mr. Biden to promote electric vehicles. Other plans aim to expand fossil fuel development on federal lands, coastal waters and Alaska and increase natural gas exports to settle further orders. I declare It's a “national energy emergency.” “We train, baby, we train,” he said in his inaugural address.
President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate change agreement as one of his first acts in office.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2016, requires participating countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions annually to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The United States, along with other countries, has also pledged billions of dollars to assist developing nations with climate adaptation and mitigation.
The White House stated, “In recent years, the United States has entered into international agreements that do not align with our values or economic and environmental goals. These agreements direct American taxpayer dollars to countries that do not need or deserve financial assistance, to the detriment of the American people.”
The executive order mandates U.S. Ambassador to the UN to provide written notification of withdrawal, with immediate effect.
The United States will join Libya, Yemen, and Iran as countries not part of the Paris Agreement, impacting global climate action efforts.
Climate change groups have strongly criticized the decision, calling it a setback to efforts to combat climate change and protect the environment.
The world continues to see unprecedented levels of carbon dioxide emissions, leading to rising global temperatures and more extreme weather events.
As the largest historical emitter, the United States has a significant role to play in leading global efforts to reduce emissions and combat climate change.
Despite the withdrawal, experts emphasize the importance of ongoing efforts to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement and address the challenges posed by climate change.
President Trump’s administration has reversed several climate initiatives put in place by the previous administration, aiming to prioritize energy production and economic growth over environmental concerns.
President Trump has also declared a national energy emergency, urging federal agencies to roll back “harmful” climate policies that impact food and fuel costs.
If you want to unsettle climate scientists, simply stand next to them and quietly mention the phrase “tipping point” in their ear. While climate change due to global warming is already concerning, the concept of climate tipping points adds an extra layer of fear. But what exactly are they and why are they causing alarm?
We find ourselves in a unique time where Earth’s average temperature is increasing at a rate at least 10 times faster than ever recorded in geological history. This has led to a surge in extreme weather events, melting ice sheets, and rising sea levels. Despite these clear signs, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise rapidly, with global temperatures increasing by 1.64°C (nearly 3°F) in the past year alone. As a result, the possibility of irreversible and drastic changes in the climate system becomes more and more likely.
Tipping points are named as such because they require a critical threshold to be crossed before a significant change occurs. Once activated, like a seesaw tipping over, there is no turning back. These moments, as defined by the American Cultural Heritage English Dictionary, are described as “a critical moment in a complex situation where a small influence or development suddenly produces a large or irreversible change.” This holds true for the climate crisis we face.
How things shift
One of the challenges for scientists studying global warming is the unpredictability of tipping points in terms of timing and impact. Additionally, how these points are integrated into climate models can greatly affect predictions of future climate change. The complexity of the climate system suggests that there are numerous tipping points, with nine identified as having the potential to trigger significant global environmental changes.
These include the potential collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and release of methane from melting Arctic permafrost. Each of these events could have far-reaching consequences, from massive sea level rise to increased carbon levels in the atmosphere.
While some of these tipping points may seem distant, the looming collapse of the Gulf Stream and associated ocean currents presents an immediate concern. Previously considered unlikely, recent data suggests that this crucial system may be on the brink of destabilization sooner than expected, posing a threat to the UK and Northern Europe’s climate stability.
Recent research suggests Antarctic ice sheets may be melting faster than existing models predict – Photo courtesy of Getty Images
The Earth’s great engine
Understanding the significance of AMOC’s collapse requires knowledge of its role as a key component of the global ocean current system. This system, known as the global conveyor belt, transports heat from the tropics to the Arctic, playing a crucial role in global climate and weather patterns.
The sheer scale of AMOC’s operation is astounding, moving millions of cubic meters of water and gigawatts of heat every second. However, disruptions to this system, such as increased freshwater input from melting ice, can hinder AMOC’s ability to function properly, potentially causing a shutdown with severe global consequences.
If AMOC were to fail, global weather patterns would be disrupted, leading to a range of impacts from cooler temperatures in Europe to altered monsoons in Asia and Africa. The effects would be felt globally, with implications for food security, migration patterns, and geopolitical stability.
Tree-planting projects help tackle the climate crisis, but they can also impact water supplies
Cost Photo/NurPhoto
The major environmental, social and economic crises facing the world today, including biodiversity, climate change, health, food, and water, are closely linked, and we must work together to tackle them. has many advantages. However, focusing on just one issue can exacerbate other crises.
This is the conclusion of a major report compiled by 165 researchers from 57 countries and approved by 147 governments over the past three years.
United Nations conventions on issues such as biodiversity and climate focus on these issues separately. “So what we will do now in this report, which has not been done before, is to combine all of these and make sure that looking at these crises individually is not only inefficient, but actually the real danger. “It's about showing what's involved,” he says. paula harrison He co-chaired the evaluation process for the report at the UK Center for Ecology and Hydrology. “Action is urgent, but unless we act in a way that takes these interdependencies into account, we will create new problems or exacerbate existing ones.”
Mr Harrison said the scientific studies assessed for this report provide strong evidence that there are a number of actionable actions that can have beneficial effects on all five areas simultaneously. . These include conserving and restoring mangrove forests, improving soil health and carbon content, creating early warning systems for all kinds of hazards, reducing the risk of disease spread from animals to humans, and universal health insurance. It includes international cooperation on technology related to the problem.
There is a trade-off. Actions that have broad benefits are not the same as actions that are the best solution to a particular problem, she says.
“What you can’t do is get the best value possible at the same time,” Harrison says. “While we cannot optimize food production without negatively impacting everything else, we can take a balanced approach that benefits all.”
Harrison gives the example of planting trees to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. If the focus is solely on climate, the trees selected are likely to be fast-growing non-native species that do not support wildlife and affect water supplies by taking up too much water. However, if a project takes a more holistic approach, it may choose native tree species that use less water and increase biodiversity. “It may not sequester as much carbon, but it will add a lot of value to other aspects of the system,” Harrison says.
There are also economic benefits to integrated approaches that help conserve biodiversity and achieve other goals. nexus reportMore than half of the world's gross domestic product ($50 trillion), as it is officially known, states that it is moderately to highly dependent on nature.
“The unaccounted costs of our current approach to economic activity, including climate change impacts on biodiversity, water, health, and food production, are estimated to be at least $10 trillion to $25 trillion per year. It has been.” Pamela McElwee The other co-chair, a professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said in a statement.
“There is a lot of evidence that there are very strong and growing biophysical risks to economic prosperity and financial stability if we continue the way we are,” Harrison said.
says the report is very ambitious Anne LarigoderlyExecutive Director of IPBES. Its purpose is to provide the science and evidence needed to support the achievement of other international conventions, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and the Paris Agreement on climate change. , she says.
The impacts of climate change are widespread, ranging from biodiversity loss to extreme weather events, rising sea levels, wildfires, and mass human migrations. Each year reveals more about our impact on the environment, with some discoveries more surprising than others.
One of the most shocking revelations to join this list is the recent discovery that our greenhouse gas emissions are altering the Earth’s rotation.
As a result, Earth days are gradually becoming longer, potentially leading to significant changes in how we experience time in the future.
“It’s fascinating how our actions as humans can have such a profound impact on the entire planet through the extensive climate change we’ve triggered over the last century,” says Professor Benedict Soja, a scientist at ETH Zurich who contributed to uncovering this concerning trend.
“This effect may surpass previous significant influences on Earth’s rotation.”
Could we see more hours in a day?
We are familiar with the greenhouse effect, where gases like carbon dioxide trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, leading to a rise in temperatures.
Last year, global temperatures were 1.18 degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average, approaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius target set in 2015 as a limit to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
Record melting of Swiss glaciers in 2022 – Credit: Getty Images
The primary consequence of this warming is the melting of large ice areas in the Arctic and Antarctic, with Switzerland losing 10% of its glacier mass in the last two years, Antarctica shedding 150 billion tons of ice annually, and Greenland losing 270 billion tons.
While many are concerned about the impact of this melting on coastal areas, Soja and his team posed a different question: Will this significant mass redistribution likely prevail? What will be its broad-scale impact on the planet? In a recent study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), they provided an answer.
“As the ice melts, the Earth’s mass shifts from the polar regions to the oceans,” Soja explained. “This results in the Earth becoming flatter and more oblate, with its mass moving further from the rotation axis.”
Understanding the Mechanism
Similar to any rotating object, the Earth adheres to the law of momentum conservation. Simply put, momentum must be preserved, and it depends on the moment of inertia and rotational speed. As mass moves away from the rotation axis due to melting ice, the moment of inertia increases.
Therefore, to uphold its momentum despite ice melting, the Earth’s rotation slows down, elongating our days.
Soja likens this concept to a figure skater performing a spin, where extending the arms slows down the rotation, while pulling them in speeds it up.
The study indicated that from 1900 to 2000, the climate’s impact on the length of Earth’s day ranged from 0.3 to 1.0 milliseconds per century. Since 2000, accelerated melting has raised this rate to 1.3 milliseconds per century, with a potential increase to 2.6 milliseconds per century by 2100 if emissions remain unchecked.
While these changes may seem small in our daily lives, they could have significant effects on a globally synchronized technological network.
Considerations on Time Management
Three main timescales play crucial roles in timekeeping: International Atomic Time (TAI), Universal Time (UT1), and Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). TAI relies on atomic clocks, UT1 is determined by Earth’s rotation, and UTC synchronizes the two.
Leap seconds were introduced in 1972 to align UTC with UT1 within 0.9 seconds.
Unlike predictable leap years, leap seconds are added irregularly as needed. Since 1972, 27 leap seconds have been added, with the most recent in 2016. Disruptions from leap seconds have caused issues in the digital age, impacting technology companies striving for synchronization.
Atomic clock made in Germany – Credit: Alamy
The recent discovery of Earth’s core slowing down further complicates matters. If the planet’s rotation continues to accelerate, a negative leap second may need to be introduced to UTC. This unprecedented situation poses substantial challenges as systems are unprepared for negative adjustments.
“This has never occurred before, and frankly, I don’t think anyone anticipated it,” Agnew remarked. He compares this scenario to the Y2K scare when concerns about potential computer errors surfaced at the end of the 20th century.
“The critical aspect is that we don’t know the consequences of introducing a negative leap second,” he cautioned. “The negative impacts could be unforeseen.”
According to Agnew, if the effects of climate change had not slowed down, a negative leap second would have been necessary in 2026. “Global warming might postpone negative leap seconds and eliminate their need entirely,” he noted.
While this discovery regarding climate change may offer a positive effect, considering less necessity for negative leap seconds, the implications of further greenhouse gas emissions outweigh any potential benefits. As the situation stands, negative leap seconds may still be required in 2029.
Perhaps it’s time to reconsider the current system?
Agnew proposed a solution to reduce the required precision between timescales, eliminating the need for negative leap seconds and allowing for more predictable positive adjustments.
“It could resemble a leap year. You add a fixed number of seconds at a specific time and accept that it may not be exact but is tolerable,” suggested Agnew.
This proposition aligns with the dominance of slowing over longer timescales, rather than the complex interactions involving Earth’s core or ice melting.
Efforts are reportedly underway to implement this system, with a target to eliminate the need for leap seconds by 2035. However, international agreement hurdles must be overcome. Failure to adapt before requiring a negative leap second could lead to unprecedented chaos, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
Meet the Experts
Benedict Soja: Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geoengineering at ETH Zurich.
Duncan Agnew: Professor Emeritus at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, specializing in crustal deformation measurement and geophysical data analysis.
When COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev stepped up to the podium on Sunday morning at the closing session of the Baku Climate Summit, he had two speeches ready. According to sources who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, one speech was prepared in anticipation of a much-anticipated deal, while the other was prepared in case of a deadlock after the summit collapsed. It was seen as a contingency plan.
An official from the COP29 Presidency revealed that negotiations were tough until the last minute to secure the Baku breakthrough, but they were still preparing for various outcomes. The final speech was being crafted to address different possibilities.
Ultimately, without giving his detractors a chance to react, Babayev succeeded in pushing through a $300 billion funding plan to assist developing countries in handling the escalating costs of global warming over the next decade, earning praise for his efforts.
He lauded the agreement as a significant achievement and criticized skeptics, labeling them as “wrong,” along with many individuals targeted by the climate deal accused of being grossly inadequate.
The audience was already aware that Babayev was preparing for a mixed outcome at the divisive Baku summit, signaling that negotiations were unlikely to proceed smoothly.
Concerns about the imminent withdrawal of the United States from global climate cooperation, geopolitical tensions, and the surge of isolationist politics that have sidelined climate change in many nations’ priorities had lowered expectations for the deal.
An activist holds up a globe balloon during a protest at the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 21. Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Potential obstacles loomed large over Baku. The coming months will continue to cast a shadow over global efforts to address climate change as Brazil gears up to host a major conference next year in the Amazon rainforest city of Belem. The world will then embark on a multi-year plan for deeper emissions cuts and building climate resilience.
Trump Effect
One major factor clouding the negotiations in Baku was the impending return of Donald Trump as the President of the United States, the world’s largest economy, historically the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and a significant producer of oil and gas, who has been a climate change skeptic.
President Trump, due to take office again in January, had vowed to withdraw the US from the global Paris climate accord, repeating his stance from his previous term and dismissing climate change as a hoax.
Negotiators at the Baku conference noted that while the US delegation contributed to developing a climate finance agreement, the country was unable to play the high-profile leadership role seen in previous climate summits. Doubts persisted about the administration’s commitment to honoring the agreement.
“As far as the United States is concerned, the voters have spoken, and that’s where we stand. We are unsure of their intentions,” stated South Africa’s Environment Minister Dion George.
US officials attending COP29 tried to assure global partners that even if President Trump withdraws from the international process, market forces, federal subsidies, and state mandates will continue driving the deployment of renewable energy.
Furthermore, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East diverted global attention towards security and energy availability, compelling many governments to tighten their budgets, making it challenging to secure larger climate finance amounts, noted observers.
“Given the current political climate, maintaining climate finance at its current level is an uphill battle,” remarked Joe Thwaites, a senior adviser at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
The pledged $300 billion annually by 2035 would theoretically triple the previous commitments of rich countries to provide $100 billion by 2020. Rich countries’ reluctance to offer further funding and the pressure to reach agreements amidst political turmoil disappointed least developed countries and small island states left out of negotiations at the Baku conference.
At one point during the summit’s final stages, the negotiating bloc representing these nations staged a walkout in protest, leading to a delay in reaching an agreement.
Representatives from Marshall Islands and India voiced their dissatisfaction with the climate finance deal, highlighting the reluctance of developed countries to fulfill their responsibilities, setting the stage for challenges at COP30 in Brazil.
“This could prove contentious in Belém. Brazil must find a way to rebuild trust,” remarked Oscar Soria, head of the Common Initiative focused on global financial reform.
It hasn’t been a good year for people concerned about climate change. The expected peak in carbon emissions has not appeared, meaning global warming continues to accelerate (see ‘Humans have warmed the planet by 1.5°C since 1700’). Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s election as US president for a second term and his pledge to “drill, baby, drill” new oil and gas supplies could lead the country to backtrack on climate action. expensive.
Similar sentiments against fossil fuels come from Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who called the oil-rich country’s natural resources a “gift from God.” Aliyev made the comments at the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku. Ironically, this “gift” will become increasingly unavailable as a warming world dries up the Caspian Sea and strands billions of dollars in fossil fuel infrastructure. (See ‘We face climate disaster as the world dries up’).
Given the failure of politicians on the international stage to grasp the reality of climate change, other leaders need to step up, but surprisingly, mayors are the best suited to do so. Maybe it’s the position.
It will be essential for cities to adapt to cope with the unique impacts of urban heat.
Mayors cannot be expected to influence the Earth’s climate, but they oversee the well-being of more than 50 percent of the world’s population who live in urban centers. This number is expected to increase to 70 percent by 2050. Current projections are for spot temperatures to increase by 2.5 degrees Celsius. Adapting cities to deal with the unique effects of urban heat will be essential, from promoting green spaces to investing in buildings that can be cooled without air conditioning (‘Extreme heat makes cities uninhabitable’). (See “How can I survive?”)
The good news is that many mayors already recognize their responsibilities. London Mayor Sadiq Khan aims for the city to be net zero by 2030. Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, France, planted trees in certain areas and banned cars from passing. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass also pledged environmentally friendly changes in preparation for the 2028 Olympics. Organizations like C40 and Climate Mayors are helping to unite local politicians around the world into action. This won’t solve climate change, but it will make life in a warming world more bearable for many people.
You've probably already noticed that the prices of many foods in your shopping cart have increased significantly. In the UK, the price of white potatoes is 20% increase in the past yearwith carrots 38% increase Olive oil rose 40%. And while that means the cost of assembling a roast dinner has soared, specialty items have also seen an even bigger price increase, with you now paying nearly twice as much for a portion of a chocolate bar. It will be.
The drivers of price increases are complex, but one of the biggest drivers is climate change. In the short term, extreme weather caused by global warming is having a devastating impact on producers. For example, in Northern Europe, heavy rains in the spring of 2024 left fields too waterlogged to harvest vegetables or plant new crops. Meanwhile, Morocco, which normally exports many vegetables to Europe, experienced a drought and ran out of water for irrigation. As a result, the prices of potatoes and carrots have soared.
As average global temperatures rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the coming years, heat waves, droughts and extreme storms will become more common and intense, causing major disruptions to food production. It will be. But current efforts to compensate for the effects of crop failures, such as clearing forests to grow more crops, are exacerbating many other problems, from biodiversity loss to rising carbon dioxide levels. I am. Are we underestimating the magnitude of the impact, when it's already happening to so many foods? If so, what can we do about it?
When it comes to natural disasters, it is often impossible to predict them more than a few months or even days in advance. We cannot say, “Let's prepare because an earthquake will occur within two years.'' But one of the few things we can really prepare for is an asteroid impact.
Although no one has yet discovered a large asteroid on a collision course with Earth, scientists, engineers, and policymakers are working on plans to defend the planet in the event it does. Techniques to avoid disaster are already being tested, such as impacting asteroids to change their orbits, as NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test Mission did successfully in 2022.
One of the most surprisingly useful planetary defense tools is running a role-playing game. This reveals roadblocks that can derail even the best-laid plans. Paul Chodas of NASA, who runs some of these exercises, says they reveal problems that would never have been considered otherwise. In our special feature, “If an asteroid is heading towards Earth, can we avoid disaster?”you can try such games yourself.
Compared to other existential threats, the risk from asteroids is relatively small
It goes without saying that factors such as the size of rocks coming from space and how quickly they are discovered have a major impact on whether disasters can be successfully avoided. So is the ability to communicate effectively. different options. These are important lessons that go beyond just protecting yourself from asteroids.
Compared to other existential threats, the risk of an asteroid coming our way is relatively small. Climate change is already happening. Pandemics have occurred regularly throughout human history, and global warming has made them even more likely. We know that these involve technical challenges, such as the development and deployment of green technologies, but the social challenges are equally important.
Only with effective global cooperation and communication can humanity tackle its greatest challenges. That's as true in the Asteroid Roleplaying Game as it is in real life.
Climate change has increased Hurricane Helen’s wind speed by 11% and total precipitation by about 10%, according to a new report.
Researchers expect Milton to do the same, and say it is likely to get worse because of climate change.
The report says the higher sea surface temperatures that contributed to the intensification of both storms are 200 to 500 times more likely to be due to climate change.
As Hurricane Milton hurtles toward Florida’s west coast, a new report estimates how intense Hurricane Helen’s winds and rain could have been due to climate change. Scientists involved in the study said they expected Milton to do the same, and that it would likely get worse because of climate change.
The report, released late Wednesday night, is from the World Weather Attribution Group, a consortium of scientists that analyzes extreme weather events and determines how much climate change has influenced certain events. He is regarded as the leading expert in making decisions.
The findings show that because of climate change, Hurricane Helen’s wind speeds were 11% more intense and its precipitation totals were about 10% higher.
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who contributed to the new study, said “we now have a complete study showing a very clear link” between climate change and hurricane strength. “The biggest danger is not making the connection to climate change.”
Like Hurricane Helen, Hurricane Milton is also moving through record-breaking heat. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are much warmer than usual, even for this time of year. Warmer water acts as fuel for such storms, helping them intensify faster.
Both hurricanes undergo a process known as rapid intensification, where the hurricane’s sustained wind speeds increase by at least 35 miles per hour over a 24-hour period. This trend is becoming more common due to climate change.
The report says the sea surface temperatures that pushed Helen and Milton up were 200 to 500 times warmer due to climate change.
On Monday, Milton experienced a dramatic pressure drop in the center of the hurricane, strengthening to one of the fifth strongest hurricanes ever recorded.
“This storm is definitely explosive,” said Bernadette Woods Plucky, chief meteorologist at the nonprofit research group Climate Central and co-author of the new report.
Using a combination of statistical analysis and detailed climate modeling, the researchers found that climate change and the fossil fuel pollution it causes are about 2.5 times more likely to produce a hurricane as strong as Helen.
This is the third and most extensive preliminary report linking climate change to the heavy rains that killed more than 200 people after Hurricane Helen made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on September 26.
Scientists at World Weather Attribution examined rainfall over two days along the coast of Florida, where Helen first hit, and three days of rainfall in mountainous areas in six neighboring states, including North Carolina and Tennessee. Assessed quantity.
They found that coastal rainfall totals are 40% more likely to be this high due to climate change, and inland rainfall totals are 70% more likely to be this high due to climate change. I discovered that there is a sex.
Helen flooded parts of southern Appalachia with more than 6 feet of rain. Floodwaters washed away houses, washed out highways, and cut off access to the town. Much of the recovery work is just beginning.
Damaged buildings in downtown Chimney Rock, North Carolina, after Hurricane Helen passed through on October 2nd. Alison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images
The World Weather Attribution group is a loose confederation of scientists who rapidly publish extreme findings about whether and how climate change has affected particular events. Twenty-one researchers participated in the new analysis. Although the group uses peer-review methods, its findings are published prior to traditional peer-review when events are new and particularly newsworthy. Previous studies on global weather attribution have withstood further scrutiny by outside scientists and been published in major scientific journals.
Otto said the new results are consistent with two previous analyzes of the effects of climate change on Hurricane Helen, but different researchers defined the parameters of the study in different ways, and there are different He said each report produced different numbers because they focused on geography.
Scientists at World Weather Attribution will run the numbers again for Milton and write a new report.
Carbonate minerals are an integral part of the carbon and water cycles, both of which are implicated in habitability, making them of particular interest in paleoenvironmental studies. In the new study, planetary scientists focused on carbon and oxygen isotope measurements of carbonate minerals detected by NASA’s Curiosity rover inside Mars’ Gale Crater.
An artist’s concept of an early Mars with liquid water (blue area) on its surface. Image credit: NASA / MAVEN / Lunar and Planetary Institute.
Isotopes are versions of an element that have different masses. As the water evaporates, the lighter ones, carbon and oxygen, are more likely to escape into the atmosphere, while the heavier ones are more likely to be left behind, accumulating in larger quantities, and in this case eventually incorporated into carbonate rocks.
Scientists are interested in carbonates because they have been shown to act as climate records.
These minerals may retain traces of the environment in which they formed, such as the temperature and acidity of the water and the composition of the water and atmosphere.
“The isotopic values of these carbonates indicate extreme amounts of evaporation, suggesting that these carbonates likely formed in climates where only ephemeral liquid water could exist. ‘ said Dr. David Burt, a researcher at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
“Our samples do not match an ancient environment in which life (biosphere) existed on the surface of Mars. However, it does not match the subterranean biosphere or the surface environment that began and ended before these carbonates formed. This does not exclude the possibility of a biosphere.
Dr. Burt and his colleagues propose two formation mechanisms for the carbonates found in Gale Crater.
In the first scenario, carbonates form through a series of dry-wet cycles within the crater.
In the second, carbonates form in extremely salty water under cold ice-forming (cryogenic) conditions inside the crater.
“These formation mechanisms represent two different climate regimes that could indicate different habitation scenarios,” said Dr. Jennifer Stern, also of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
“Wetting and drying cycles would indicate alternations between more and less habitable environments, while the extremely low temperatures in the mid-latitudes of Mars mean that most of the water is trapped in ice. “And what’s there would be very salty and unpleasant to live in.” “
These climate scenarios for ancient Mars have been previously proposed based on the presence of certain minerals, global modeling, and the identification of rock formations.
The results are the first to add isotopic evidence from rock samples to support the scenario.
The heavy isotope values of carbonates on Mars are significantly higher than carbonate minerals observed on Earth, and are the heaviest carbon and oxygen isotope values ever recorded in Martian material.
In fact, both wet-dry and cold-saline climates are required to form carbonates, which are extremely rich in heavy carbon and oxygen.
“The fact that these carbon and oxygen isotope values are higher than any other measured on Earth or Mars indicates that the process is extreme,” Dr. Burt said.
“While evaporation can cause significant oxygen isotope changes on Earth, the changes measured in this study were two to three times larger.”
“This means two things: (i) there was an extreme degree of evaporation that made these isotope values very heavy, and (ii) these heavier values were conserved so that the lighter isotopes The process that generated the body value must have significantly reduced its size.””
team’s paper Published in this week’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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David G. Burt others. 2024. High concentrations of carbon and oxygen isotopes in carbonate-derived CO2 At Gale Crater on Mars. PNAS 121 (42): e2321342121;doi: 10.1073/pnas.2321342121
This article is based on a press release provided by NASA.
A group of young evangelical Christians is planning a campaign at religious universities to persuade students to think about climate change at the voting booth.
It’s part of a small movement within the evangelical community to combine Christian values with climate action.
The effort comes as President Donald Trump continues to court evangelical voters while calling climate change a “fraud.”
When an evangelical student group calls for a vote on climate change at a Christian university later this month, they plan to carry the tagline: “Love God, Love Your Neighbor, Vote for Climate Change!”
This is the first time the bipartisan group Young Evangelicals for Climate Action has organized such an in-person campaign on campus since its inception in 2012.
The volunteers, members of six Christian university chapters, are working to connect communities affected by the climate crisis with the Christian duty to “love our neighbor” and help those in need. We are aiming for
The effort is part of a larger movement led by the Evangelical Environmental Network, a faith-based organization calling for climate action.
Its members are a minority within the community. A 2022 poll from the Pew Research Center found that evangelical Christians are the largest minority. most likely Religious groups in the United States have expressed skepticism about anthropogenic climate change.
In the 2020 election, 84% of white evangelical Christians I voted for Donald Trump — I have voted for Trump in the past Climate change is a “hoax” decades of contradictions scientific consensus. Just last week, President Trump falsely claimed that “the Earth has actually gotten a little colder lately,” and at a September 29 rally called climate change “one of the biggest frauds in history.”
Cast of white evangelical voters third President Trump's 2016 vote count and Pew Research poll released last month We found that 82% said they would do so again this year.
Still, Jessica Morman, CEO of the Evangelical Environmental Network, says she's working to get Christians to see climate change as an issue that loves God's planet.
“As evangelicals, we have a biblical mission to care for God’s creation,” said Morman, a pastor and climate scientist. “And in the 21st century, that means taking action on the climate.”
The Milton, which is expected to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast Wednesday evening, is sailing through unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures in much of the ocean basin were well above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, with some parts of the bay up to 4 degrees warmer than normal. Data from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Rising temperatures in the Gulf also strengthened Hurricane Helen, which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region less than two weeks later.
2023 study published in journal scientific report We find that Atlantic tropical cyclones are about 29% more likely to develop rapidly from 2001 to 2020 compared to 1971 to 1990.
Scientists have documented many recent examples of rapid intensification, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Idalia last year. 2019 Hurricane Dorian’s peak wind speed increased from 150 mph to 185 mph in nine hours, and 2022 Hurricane Ian experienced two rapid intensifications before making landfall in Florida.
Although this process is well documented, rapid intensification is difficult to predict. Although scientists know the ingredients needed to activate this phenomenon, it remains difficult to predict exactly how and when it will occur, and its exact triggers.
Milton is expected to weaken slightly before making landfall, but the storm’s impacts will be severe. A storm surge watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, with potentially life-threatening storm surges of up to 12 feet expected. As many as 15 million people are under flood watches across the state.
Dennis Chow
Dennis Chou is a science and space reporter for NBC News.
Between 10% to 15% of California’s wildfires are caused by arson annually, a trend that seems to continue in 2024. With the impact of climate change raising temperatures, prolonging fire seasons, and worsening drought conditions, intentional fires have more opportunities to ignite and spread.
Suspected arson fires have burned over 477,000 acres this year, the highest since 2014 when 98,259 acres were burned due to arson, according to Cal Fire.
Dry wood from drought or other climate change effects heightens the risk posed by arson fires, as they can rapidly spread and endanger homes. Mouchette warned of the increased danger, especially for those without access to escape vehicles.
The wildfire season in California is becoming longer, with the desert basin in the southeastern part of the state experiencing 61 additional fire weather days from 1973 to 2022, according to Climate Central.
Rising temperatures from a record-breaking October heatwave in parts of California, with temperatures forecasted to reach 105 degrees in some areas, further exacerbate the risk of arson fires spreading quickly.
Arson fires inherently cause more damage per acre compared to fires caused by lightning or other factors, making them a serious concern, noted researcher Jeffrey Prestemon from the U.S. Forest Service.
In a study conducted by Prestemon and colleagues on wildfire arson incidents in various countries, they found a significant decrease in wildfires after the arrest of a particular arsonist in Spain the following year.
Arresting arsonists can deter future incidents and prevent further damage, emphasized Prestemon.
In California, Cal Fire had apprehended 91 individuals on arson charges by August, aligning with historical trends. Typically, wildfire arsonists are young males who tend to have multiple instances of setting fires.
Investigating and prosecuting wildfire arson cases present challenges due to sparse physical evidence, making it difficult to hold perpetrators accountable, stated Daniel Fox, a prosecutor from Riverside County.
While advancements in technology like surveillance cameras and satellite tracking have aided in closing cases, victims of arson wildfires often struggle to recover fully from the damages inflicted, as insurance coverage may fall short.
Andrea Blaylock examines the charred remains of her home destroyed in the Park Fire near Forest Ranch, California, on July 30, 2024.Nick Cooley/Associated Press
A suspect, Stout, arrested for the Park fire, faces charges of arson of a residential structure or property, potentially carrying a 25 years to life sentence if convicted.
With wildfire arson posing ongoing threats in California, efforts to prevent, investigate, and prosecute these incidents remain crucial to protect lives and property from the devastation they cause.
Eric S. Neitzel Fireground Communications LLC/AdobeStock
Central Park Reservoir is one of the few places in New York City to get a good view of the clouds. Looking north from the reservoir’s edge, there’s a large gap between the buildings that lets you see the clouds rolling in from the harbor. Meteorologist Kara Lamb suggested we try our hand at cloud watching here.
At the time, the sky is full of fluffy cumulus clouds beneath a ceiling of altostratus. One of them looks a lot like a whale. But Lam, who studies clouds at Columbia University in New York, doesn’t think they’re so strange. “Clouds are fascinating because they’re cool to look at,” he says. “But I think about clouds in terms of climate” – understanding how the sunlight they reflect and the heat they trap beneath them affect the Earth’s temperature.
What the casual cloud watcher might not know is that clouds are the biggest unknown in predicting future climate change to determine how this balance will change in a warming world. If we double carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels, will the world get a manageable 1.5°C warming or a hellish 4.5°C warming? The biggest source of this uncertainty is our lack of understanding of clouds.
But researchers are making progress. Lamb is looking at ice crystals in the clouds, which play a surprisingly large role in influencing the climate. Some researchers are using cloud chambers, and are planning to set up cloud chambers…
So far this year, hail — not hurricanes, floods or tornadoes — has caused the most costly weather damage in the United States.
Research suggests that large hailstorms will become more frequent due to climate change.
Next year, scientists are planning the first field study of hail in the United States since the 1970s, and will track hailstorms in the same way they track tornadoes.
Barb Berlin was standing in the garage of her farmhouse near Inman, Nebraska, when she heard a sudden crackling noise.
“I thought it was a gun,” she said.
Then a streak of white appeared, and she realized the sound wasn't a gunshot, but hail.
Fist-sized hailstones pounded on the tin roof of Berlin's garage, and soon others began punching softball-shaped holes in the hood of her Ford Mustang parked outside.
“It was very loud and scary. I prayed a lot,” Berlin said, adding that she was worried about her livestock. “I've never seen hail like that before.”
Hail is a hidden danger: Despite the extreme weather this spring and summer, hail — not hurricanes, floods or tornadoes — caused the most losses in the U.S., according to Gallagher Re, a global reinsurance firm that tracks such data.
And as the planet warms, research suggests large hailstorms like the one observed in Berlin on Monday will become more frequent. A study published last monthThis suggests that the chances of smaller, less damaging hail will decrease.
A study by researchers at Northern Illinois University projects that the frequency of hailstones larger than about 1.5 inches could increase by 15% to 75%, depending on the amount of greenhouse gas pollution humans emit.
Hail occurs when thunderstorms circulate raindrops in the upper layers of the atmosphere, and typically occurs where temperatures are between -22°F and 14°F. Climate change affects hail because warmer temperatures create more energy to push air upwards.In a thunderstorm.
“We expect to see stronger updrafts in the future as the atmosphere becomes more unstable,” said Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University and lead author of the study.
According to the study, these strong updrafts allow hail to remain in the right places in the storm longer, allowing more ice to accumulate before the hail becomes too heavy and falls to the ground.
“Imagine trying to balance a ping pong ball on an upside-down hair dryer pointing up into the sky,” Gensini said, explaining how updrafts lift hailstones. “Now try balancing a baseball or a grapefruit. You'll need a stronger updraft to…
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Most political efforts to tackle climate change have had little effect
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Most climate policies fail to significantly reduce emissions and have little effect on halting climate change, meaning governments must work harder to find ways to actually make a difference.
Nicholas Koch Researchers from the Mercator Institute for the Global Commons and Climate Change in Berlin found this by assessing the impact of 1,500 climate policies implemented in 41 countries across six continents between 1998 and 2022.
The researchers began by using machine learning to identify moments when a country's emissions fell significantly compared to a control group of other countries not included in the analysis. They found 69 such emissions “breaks” and compared them to a database compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that tracks what climate policies were enacted and when.
Matching policy shifts with changes in emissions is not an exact science, but the team was able to identify 63 of these changes as being due to one or more policy interventions that took place within a two-year period before or after the change, to account for lagged or anticipated effects.
Each of the 63 breaks reduced carbon dioxide emissions by between 600 million and 1.8 billion tonnes, but the researchers found that overall, most climate policies have fallen far short of this level of success. “There are many policies that have not led to significant reductions in emissions, and more policies do not necessarily lead to better outcomes,” Koch said.
Many policies fail because they are too specific, he says. For example, governments might subsidize the purchase of new electric cars, but most cars on the road are not electric, so the impact is minimal. One measure that seems to be very effective is a total ban, for example stopping the use of coal for electricity generation, but these are always used in conjunction with others, making it hard for the team to identify whether they work in isolation.
Politicians are looking for a one-size-fits-all policy mix, but they're out of luck: there's nothing that works for all sectors. Pricing seems to be the most effective tool, especially in reducing emissions in commercial industries, but it's not the only solution, Koch says. “We've found that the most frequently used policy tools – subsidies and regulations – are not enough,” he says. “Only in combination with price-based tools like carbon prices, energy taxes, can we achieve significant emissions reductions.” In other words, people will only reduce their emissions if it hurts their wallets.
“A key value of this paper is that it identifies clear changes in emissions in specific sectors and countries.” Matthew Patterson The researcher, from the University of Manchester in the UK, points out that the OECD's database of policy change has some limitations because the government documents it draws from are not reported consistently around the world, but he says it is the best available for the purposes of this study.
“We've known for some time that climate policies work best in combination, but this study gives us more specific information about which combinations work and in what circumstances,” Patterson says. This will allow us to more aggressively pursue these “breaks” to address the emissions gap and create the policy combinations that most effectively address emissions.
Marion Dumas Researchers at the London School of Economics and Political Science say that while the study should be useful to policymakers, looking first at emissions trends – or the results – and then working backwards to understand the causes may not capture the full reality of policy interventions.
“This is a very interesting approach, but there is a lot of uncertainty as to how to simulate the likely outcomes. [emissions] “You need to map out the trajectory and then identify the tipping points,” Dumas said, adding that a two-year gap around the tipping point may be too short and underestimates the real impact of more gradual, longer-term policy changes.
“It's important not to overinterpret the headline results, which suggest that very few policies will reduce emissions.” Robin Rambo The researchers, from Imperial College London, say small emissions reductions that their team's methods didn't detect could add up to big differences.
Of course, a larger issue in identifying the most effective measures is that policymaking doesn't take place in a vacuum, and specific policies must be acceptable to the general public. “The political dynamics will determine whether that combination can be implemented in any given country or sector,” Patterson says.
“We know this is going to be very difficult politically,” Koch said, “but the good news is that in general it's possible to put policies in place to achieve these very ambitious goals.”
As a COP26 During climate change negotiations in Glasgow, UK, in November 2021, a new slogan entered the vocabulary: “Stay at 1.5°C.” The phrase, on everyone’s lips from politicians to climate scientists, was aimed at maintaining the goals set as part of the Paris Agreement at the COP six years ago.twenty oneIn hindsight, this ambition was probably already fizzling out, destined to remain merely an empty slogan.
New Scientist The argument began in 2022, when expert opinion did not reflect their personal views or the data we were seeing. Scientists felt trapped and unable to speak out because limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is still possible according to the laws of physics, but not realistic given the political, social and economic upheaval.
Since then, there has been a growing recognition that 1.5°C is unattainable, but there was no frank discussion of what that meant. Now, for the first time, researchers have explicitly rejected that, saying that 1.6°C is the best we can hope for, and that higher temperatures are more likely (see “Best-case scenario for climate change now is 1.6°C warming”).
Will policymakers finally realize that platitudes and slogans are not enough to combat climate change? Promises to “maintain” these targets are meaningless if we do not achieve the only means of preventing rising temperatures — reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other global-warming greenhouse gases to net zero.
Unfortunately, the phrase “net zero” is losing its original meaning as a description of atmospheric physics, and instead being used by many to mean “environmental policy I don’t like.” This is dangerous, because extreme temperature changes have locked us in a vicious cycle of emissions that only a net-zero energy system can break (see “Efforts to combat extreme temperatures are making the situation worse”). If we are to have any hope of limiting warming, we need to learn from the failure of “stay 1.5°C” and not let “net zero” become meaningless.
Using the large number of human fossils found in Ice Age Europe, paleoanthropologists have identified a population turnover in Western Europe 28,000 years ago, isolation between western and eastern refugia between 28,000 and 14,700 years ago, and a bottleneck during the most recent Ice Age.
Artistic reconstruction of an Ice Age hunter-gatherer group. Image courtesy of Tom Björklund.
“Around 45,000 years ago, the first modern humans migrated into Europe during the Ice Age, marking the beginning of the so-called Late Paleolithic period,” said Dr Hannes Lassmann, a researcher at the University of Tübingen.
“These early populations continuously inhabited the European continent, even during the so-called Last Glacial Maximum about 25,000 years ago, a time when glaciers covered much of northern and central Europe.”
“Archaeologists have long debated how climate change and the resulting new environmental conditions affected the demographics of hunter-gatherers at the time.”
“The limited number of available fossils and the often poor molecular preservation for ancient DNA analysis have made it very difficult to draw conclusions about the influence of climatic factors on migrations, population growth, decline and extinction.”
Because teeth make up a large part of the fossil record and preserve genetic traits in their morphology, Dr. Rathman and his colleagues compiled a large dataset of 450 dentitions dating from 47,000 to 7,000 years ago.
They focused on morphological features of the teeth – small variations within the dentition, such as the number and shape of cusps on the crowns, the pattern of ridges and grooves on the chewing surfaces, and the presence or absence of wisdom teeth.
“Because these traits are heritable, they can be used to trace the genetic relationships of Ice Age humans without the need for well-preserved ancient DNA,” Dr Lassman said.
“These features are visible to the naked eye, so we also looked at hundreds of publicly available photographs of the fossils.”
The results show that between about 47,000 and 28,000 years ago, during the Middle Glacial Period, populations from Western and Eastern Europe were well connected genetically.
During the subsequent Late Glacial Period, between 28,000 and 14,700 years ago, the researchers found no genetic link between Western and Eastern Europe.
Furthermore, the analysis shows that both regions have experienced significant declines in population size and loss of genetic diversity.
“This dramatic population shift was likely caused by major climate change,” Dr Rathman said.
“Temperatures during this period fell to their lowest values for the entire Upper Paleolithic, culminating in the Last Glacial Maximum, when ice sheets reached their maximum extent and covered large parts of northern and central Europe.”
“The worsening climate changed the vegetation from steppe to primarily tundra, affecting the habitat of prey animals and, consequently, the hunter-gatherers who depended on them.”
“Our findings support the long-held theory that humans were not only pushed southward by the advancing ice sheet but also isolated into isolated refugia with more favourable environmental conditions,” said Dr Judith Beier, also from the University of Tübingen.
Another notable finding of the study is the discovery that Western European populations became extinct during the transition from the Middle to Late Neoglacial and were replaced by new populations migrating from Eastern Europe.
After the Late Glacial Period, temperatures rose steadily again, the glaciers retreated, grassland and forest vegetation returned, and previously abandoned areas could be recolonized for the first time.
The team observed that during this period, the populations of Western and Eastern Europe, which had previously been isolated and significantly declining, began to grow again and migration between the regions resumed.
“Our new method makes it possible for the first time to reconstruct complex prehistoric demographic events using morphological data,” said researcher Dr Maria Teresa Vizzarri from the University of Ferrara.
“To our knowledge, this has never been accomplished before.”
“Our study provides important insights into the demographic history of Ice Age Europeans and highlights the profound impact that climatic and environmental change had on prehistoric human life,” Dr Lassmann said.
“If we want to tackle the complex environmental challenges of the future, we need to urgently learn from the past.”
of Survey results Published in the journal Scientific advances.
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Hannes Lassmann others2024. Human demography in Late Paleolithic Europe inferred from fossil dental phenotypes. Scientific advances 10(33);doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adn8129
This article has been edited based on the original release from the University of Tübingen.
Around this time last year, Dean Grubbs and his colleagues were celebrating a conservation success story.The star of the show was the smalltooth sawfish, a large ray with a saw-like snout lined with tiny teeth. Victim of coastal development and bycatch, in 2003 it became the first saltwater fish to receive federal protection under the Endangered Species Act. By 2023, Florida's population will be the last sawfish in the US, and it's on the rise. “We were excited. We were seeing the population start to bounce back,” says Grubbs, a marine ecologist at Florida State University.
Then disaster struck. In January, a sawfish was found dead, thrashing about in shallow waters, spinning like crazy. This was after months of the smaller fish exhibiting similar behavior. Suddenly, Grubbs and his team were spending their days pulling dead sawfish from the water. After months of research and testing, the culprit finally emerged: ocean heat. A record-breaking heatwave brought “hot tub” water temperatures to Florida's coast in 2023, setting off a chain reaction that appears to have devastated the vulnerable sawfish population.
This is just one cautionary tale: something is wrong with the world's oceans. From orange algae blooms in the North Sea to outbreaks of gelatinous Bombay duckfish off the coast of China to the disappearance of Antarctic “bottom waters,” evidence is mounting that extreme temperatures are wreaking havoc on our oceans. After years of acting as silent sinks for excess human-made heat, the oceans are beginning to creak under the pressure. And we're finally starting to realize just how worried we should be.
Raising cattle produces huge amounts of greenhouse gases
Alan Hopps/Getty Images
As the world's population grows, the only way to reduce agriculture's huge greenhouse gas emissions is to make food production more efficient. Unfortunately, efficiency gains have stagnated since 2010, and as food demand continues to grow, agricultural emissions and deforestation are likely to skyrocket.
Lin Ma Ma and his colleagues at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Shijiazhuang came to their conclusion after analysing existing data to estimate greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein produced between 1961 and 2019. They chose protein instead of calories because it's a better indicator of food quality, Ma says.
Between 1961 and around 2010, emissions per unit of protein fell by two-thirds, the team says. But since then, there has been no further improvement and there are even signs of an increase. Agriculture is responsible for about a third of all greenhouse gas emissions, and food demand is projected to increase by up to 50% by 2050. If agriculture's climate efficiency does not improve further, emissions from agriculture will also increase by 50%, the researchers warn.
Moreover, without improvements in agricultural efficiency, the only way to increase production is to clear more land for farming, which will lead to further deforestation and biodiversity loss, they say.
“That's very bad news. We need to drastically reduce emissions, not increase them.” Richard Waite He is a researcher at the World Resources Institute in Washington, D.C., but was not involved in the study.
“The continued and accelerating expansion of agricultural land since the turn of the century is of great concern as there is no path forward to limit warming to 1.5°C. [of global warming] “It's important to end deforestation as quickly as possible,” he says.
There are many reasons why climate emissions per unit of protein produced are no longer decreasing, Dan Leto For one thing, people around the world are eating more meat, which produces far more greenhouse gas emissions than plant-based foods, said Breakthrough Institute researcher David Schneider, who was not on the team.
The fact that large amounts of agricultural crops are now being converted to fuel rather than food could also be a factor, he says. “The rise in crop-based biofuels likely explains some of the slowdown in decarbonization we find in the paper,” as biofuel crops grown for energy are chosen for their calorie content rather than their protein content, reducing the efficiency that Ma's team measures.
Another potential factor is the increase in extreme weather events that are affecting crop yields and food prices around the world, which the study did not take into account, Ma said. “But we suspect the impact of extreme weather on crop yields was relatively small before 2019.”
aBlue skies, crystal clear waters and a fleet of boats bearing the words “Welcome to Pleasureland” – it sounds like a dream vacation, but in reality it’s a dystopia: after a great flood, the continent is submerged and diseases caused by toxic plastic are affecting all living things.
Tides of Tomorrow is nothing less than unsettling climax fiction, but its tone is lighthearted, blunt and irreverent rather than gloomy and unsettling. It’s set on the fictional planet Elynd, and lead game designer Adrien Poncet says he and his colleagues had free reign to play with the science and technology they depicted. At one point, a character inhales “ozen” from a container, an oxygen-like substance that helps keep people alive. At other times, players witness shocking and unsettling imagery, including tons of floating plastic that resemble the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
Tomorrow’s trends. Photo: Deep Silver/PLAION
Fans of DigixArt’s previous project, the border-crossing adventure Road 96, will be pleased with the amount of challenge in Tides of Tomorrow’s gameplay. Players will navigate the oceans of Erind, encountering pirates, religious cults, and deep-sea trawlers loaded with junk, sprinkling in first-person exploration, mini-games, and scripted action sequences (including, predictably, a boat-driving sequence and, unexpectedly, the odd bit of parkour). But Poncet stresses that at its core, the game is a thrilling, branching narrative. Kill a crime boss or attempt an escape? The choice is yours. You may live or die by the consequences.
It’s a new and particularly ambitious twist on this long-running “choose your own adventure” formula. Playing as a so-called Tide Walker (name subject to change), you share what Poncet calls a “strange connection” with other Tide Walkers. They appear to you as apparitions, out of time but not out of place. The catch here is that these apparitions aren’t pre-programmed encounters, but other players connected to you over the internet, already playing out the same events. Think of it as an asynchronous multiplayer system, like Elden Ring’s ghosts, except here your ghosts have a tangible impact on the game, perhaps leaving behind important items like a knife to stab the aforementioned unsuspecting kingpin.
You’ll follow in the footsteps of one player at a time, getting to know them through their decision-making impulses. Who is that player? “It could be a stranger on the internet, a friend, or even your favorite streamer,” says Poncet.
Soon, a chain reaction of decisions made by both you and your bound partner begins to pile up. Testing a game with such a dizzying narrative structure proves to be extremely difficult.[Tides of Tomorrow] “The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim is the first game to really push the idea of asynchronous multiplayer narrative,” Ponsetto said. “We didn’t approach this game with any blueprint or preconceived ideas. This is uncharted territory.”
Despite the novelty of this component, the lead designer claims that it speaks to the game’s deeper themes. Indeed, the mechanic doubles as a carefully considered metaphor: after all, what could survive the all-encompassing climate crisis and mitigate its worst effects other than a massive collaborative effort involving people spread across a vast continent?
“Tides of Tomorrow asks players to question our world,” Poncet says, “but especially about holding on to hope in a world where all seems lost, and helping each other in a common effort to make things better.”
Many young climate advocates believe Kamala Harris is stronger on environmental issues than Joe Biden.
The Biden administration’s Inflation Control Act was the largest climate change investment in U.S. history, but young environmentalists want even more.
They cited Harris’ record of prosecuting oil companies and her co-sponsorship of the Green New Deal as reasons to support her.
President Joe Biden may have passed the most significant climate change bill in U.S. history, but many young environmental activists say they believe Kamala Harris has a stronger case on the issue.
The heads of 11 groups dedicated to raising young voters’ concern about climate change said Harris’ track record going after big oil companies as a prosecutor and her co-sponsoring of the Green New Deal as a senator made her a more appealing candidate than Biden, despite her victories on environmental issues.
“She has a track record of holding big oil accountable in a way that we haven’t been able to do for the last four years,” said Al-Shainee Ajay, 26, executive director of the Sunrise Movement, which advocates for government intervention to combat climate change.
The Green New Deal Network is a coalition of 19 progressive environmental and social justice organizations, including the Sunrise Movement. I endorsed Harris this week. However, he has never previously voiced his support for Biden.
The Biden administration’s record on climate is relatively good. The biggest investment in climate change For the first time in U.S. history, we have allocated nearly $370 billion to environmental protection efforts; and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act These include investments in clean energy, electric vehicle infrastructure, public transport and strengthening climate resilience.
But several young environmental activists, ages 16 to 29, said those successes have been clouded by the expansion of the fossil fuel industry during Biden’s term.
“Frankly, I’m frustrated that this administration claims to be showing leadership on climate change yet approves so many fossil fuel projects,” said Keanu Arpels Josiah, 19, an organizer with Fridays for Future, an international youth-led climate change group started by Greta Thunberg.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Vice President Harris visited Lake Mead in 2021 and delivered a speech there. Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images file
Dana Fisher, director of the Center for Environment, Community and Equity at American University, said it’s not that young voters are ignoring Biden’s climate change efforts, they just want to see more of them.
“Young people are aware of how serious the climate crisis is, and they know that this is not enough,” Fisher said.
She also said several young environmental activists told her in the spring that they were encouraging their members to refrain from voting in the presidential election altogether.
“I was like, ‘Are you kidding me? Don’t you remember what happened in 2000?'” Fischer said, referring to the slim margin that decided that year’s presidential election. “Of course they didn’t know, because if they were alive, they were in diapers. It’s very hard to take the long view when you’re young.”
Fischer said the young environmental activists she has spoken to seem more likely to vote since Biden dropped out of the race.
Harris’ younger supporters highlight the settlements she won as California’s attorney general. Chevron, BP and ConocoPhillips Regarding handling of hazardous materials.
“Biden is much more moderate in terms of his policy approach, but Kamala is not afraid to really get to the bottom of environmental and climate policy, especially against polluters,” said Iris Zhang, 20, a youth advisory board member at the Global Youth Storytelling and Research Lab, which engages young leaders in climate and environmental justice research.
Harris referenced that early work at several points during her campaign’s early days.
“As District Attorney, I created one of the first Environmental Justice Units in the nation to go after polluters,” she says. July 22 in WilmingtonThe Delaware native spoke about her time as district attorney in San Francisco, when “Donald Trump stood at Mar-a-Lago and told lobbyists for Big Oil that he would do what they said for $1 billion in campaign contributions.”
On September 15, 2020, then-Senator Kamala Harris met with Governor Gavin Newsom and Cal Fire officials to assess the damage caused by the Pine Ridge Creek Fire in California. Carlos Avila Gonzalez/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images file
Harris’s California background also appears to be resonating with young environmentalists.
Zanagie Artis, 24, co-founder of the climate justice group Zero Hour, said that because California regularly experiences the effects of the climate crisis, including droughts, heat waves and wildfires, “there is a lot of value in empathizing with young people who are fighting so hard for climate justice.”
Young activists pointed to Harris’ climate change policies. 2020 Presidential ElectionAt the time, she pledged to invest $10 trillion over 10 years in climate change efforts, and set a goal of transitioning to a 100% clean energy economy by 2045.
“We want her to be able to set the standard and not just follow the Biden administration’s lead,” said Natalie Bookout, who turned 18 in October and leads the Sunrise Movement chapter in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Sunrise Movement protesters gathered near VP Harris’ Brentwood home on April 14, demanding that she urge President Biden to declare a climate emergency. Robert Gautier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images file
Heather Hargreaves, executive director of campaigns at Climate Power, a communications organization focused on electing climate change leaders, said that among young people, “there may just be a knowledge gap about what President Biden has done over the last three years.”
A Harris campaign spokesman said she plans to strengthen climate change efforts in the Inflation Control Act, but declined to answer a question about whether she has more support than Biden among younger environmentalists.
The spokesperson also said Harris Said in 2019 If elected president, she would ban fracking.I no longer support such bans.
“She doesn’t want to alienate people from fossil fuel states,” Fischer said. “She’s not going to be as progressive as she was in California. But will she be more progressive than Biden? I expect she will.”
Vice President Kamala Harris looks out at the Hyperwall during a discussion on climate change at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, on November 5, 2021. Olivier D’Uglier/AFP via Getty Images file
Harris represents dozens of environmental groups and more than 350 www.nbcnews.com
The rise of artificial intelligence has propelled the stock prices of major tech companies to new heights, but this growth has come at the expense of the industry’s environmental efforts.
Google recently admitted that AI technology poses a challenge to its sustainability objectives. The company disclosed that its data centers, crucial for its AI infrastructure, have caused a 48% increase in greenhouse gas emissions since 2019. Google cited “significant uncertainties” in achieving its goal of net-zero emissions by 2030, particularly due to the complex and unpredictable environmental impacts of AI.
As the tech industry races ahead with AI advancements, the question arises: can technology mitigate the environmental impact of AI, or will the pursuit of cutting-edge innovation overshadow these concerns?
Why is AI a threat to tech companies’ environmental goals?
Data centers play a critical role in developing and operating AI models like Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s GPT-4. These centers house complex computing equipment that require substantial electricity, leading to CO2 emissions both from energy sources and the manufacturing processes involved. According to the International Energy Agency, data centers are projected to double their electricity consumption by 2026, equivalent to Japan’s energy demand. Additionally, studies suggest that AI’s water consumption could reach significant levels by 2027, potentially straining resources equivalent to England’s annual consumption.
What do experts say about the environmental impact?
Government-sponsored reports in the UK have highlighted the importance of energy sources in determining the environmental cost of technology. Some experts caution that the reliance on fossil-fuel-powered energy sources for training AI models remains a significant challenge. While tech companies are increasing their use of renewable energy to meet sustainability goals, concerns persist that the lack of clean energy may push other users towards fossil fuels.
Alex de Vries, founder of Digiconomist, notes the dual challenge of rising energy consumption in AI and the struggle to secure sustainable energy sources.
Will there be enough renewable energy?
Global efforts to triple renewable energy resources by the end of the decade face challenges due to surging energy demands from AI data centers. The International Energy Agency warns that current plans may only double renewable energy capacity by 2030, potentially impacting climate goals.
Technology companies may need to invest heavily in new renewable energy projects to meet the escalating electricity needs driven by AI.
How quickly can new renewable energy projects be built?
While renewable energy projects like wind and solar farms can be developed relatively quickly, bureaucratic hurdles and grid connectivity issues can delay the process for years. The pace of building offshore wind and hydroelectric schemes faces similar challenges, posing concerns about whether renewable energy can keep up with the expansion of AI.
The reliance on existing low-carbon sources by tech companies may divert clean energy away from other users, potentially increasing fossil fuel consumption to meet growing demands.
Will AI’s power demands keep growing?
The escalating energy needs of AI systems could lead to higher energy costs, prompting cost-saving measures in the industry. However, the competitive landscape and the push for cutting-edge AI technologies may result in excessive electricity consumption despite rising costs.
The pursuit of state-of-the-art AI systems has fueled a “winner takes all” mentality among tech giants, compelling heavy investments in the development of advanced AI. The pressure to remain at the forefront of AI innovation, including the race towards achieving AGI, threatens to escalate energy consumption and costs.
Despite advancements in AI efficiency, the industry’s drive for innovation may offset potential energy savings, akin to the economic concept known as “Jevons’ Paradox.”
Won’t AI companies learn to use less electricity?
While AI breakthroughs continue to enhance efficiency, the industry’s relentless pursuit of cutting-edge models may counteract potential energy savings. The growth in AI capabilities does not necessarily translate to reduced energy consumption, leading to a paradox similar to historical instances of technological advancements increasing use rather than conserving resources.
Three years ago, Google launched an ambitious plan to address climate change, aiming to achieve “net zero” emissions by 2030. This goal entails not emitting more climate-affecting gases into the atmosphere than it removes.
However, a recent report released by Google indicated that it is far from reaching this objective. Emissions are projected to increase by 13% in 2023 compared to the previous year and have surged by 48% since the base year of 2019.
The company attributes last year’s emission growth to electricity-intensive agriculture. The burning of coal or natural gas for electricity production releases greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane, contributing to global warming and more extreme weather events.
Despite being a leader in climate change initiatives, Google faces challenges in meeting its net-zero target. Experts suggest that the rapid expansion of data centers, which require significant energy and resources, could hinder the transition to clean electricity and exacerbate climate change.
To address these issues, Google’s chief sustainability officer, Kate Brandt, emphasized the need for continued evolution and innovation in the company’s approach. She acknowledged the uncertainties surrounding the environmental impact of AI and the importance of partnering with cleaner companies and investing in sustainable practices.
Ultimately, achieving a net-zero goal by 2030 will require concerted efforts and collaboration across industries to accelerate the transition to clean energy sources and mitigate the effects of climate change.
Google’s commitment to using renewable energy and implementing energy-efficient practices in its data centers and offices is a step in the right direction. However, there is a need for ongoing improvement and collaboration to address the challenges posed by climate change.
Bill Gates argues that artificial intelligence will assist, not hinder, in achieving climate goals, despite concerns about new data centers depleting green energy supplies.
The philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder stated that AI could enhance technology and power grids’ efficiency, enabling countries to reduce energy consumption even with the need for more data centers.
Gates reassured that AI’s impact on the climate is manageable, contrary to fears that AI advancements might lead to increased energy demand and reliance on fossil fuels.
“Let’s not exaggerate this,” Gates emphasized. “Data centers contribute an additional 6% in energy demand at most. But it’s likely around 2% to 2.5%. The key is whether AI can accelerate the reduction to 6% or beyond. The answer is, ‘Definitely.’
Goldman Sachs estimates that AI chatbot tool ChatGPT’s electricity consumption for processing queries is nearly ten times more than a Google search, potentially causing carbon dioxide emissions from data centers to double between 2022 and 2030.
Experts project that developed countries, which have seen energy consumption decline due to efficiency, could experience up to a 10% rise in electricity demand from the growth of AI data centers.
In a conference hosted by his venture fund Breakthrough Energy, Gates told reporters in London that the additional energy demand from AI data centers is likely to be offset by investments in green electricity, as tech companies are willing to pay more for clean energy sources.
Breakthrough Energy has supported over 100 companies involved in the energy transition. Gates is heavily investing in AI through the Gates Foundation Trust, which has allocated about a third of its $77 billion assets into Microsoft.
However, Gates’ optimism about AI’s potential to reduce carbon emissions aligns with peer-reviewed papers, suggesting that generative AI could significantly lower CO2 emissions by simplifying tasks like writing and creating illustrations.
AI is already influencing emissions directly, as demonstrated by Google using deep learning techniques to reduce data center cooling costs by 40% and decrease overall electricity usage by 15% for non-IT tasks.
Despite these advancements, concerns remain about the carbon impact of AI, with Microsoft acknowledging that its indirect emissions are increasing due to building new data centers around the world.
Gates cautioned that the world could miss its 2050 climate goals by up to 15 years if the transition to green energy is delayed, hindering efforts to decarbonize polluting sectors and achieve net-zero emissions by the target year.
He expressed concerns that the required amount of green electricity may not be delivered in time for the transition, making it challenging to meet the zero emissions goal by 2050.
Gates’ warning follows a global report indicating a rise in renewable energy alongside fossil fuel consumption, suggesting that meeting climate goals requires accelerated green energy adoption.
Walking on hot red sand is hard work, especially when the temperature exceeds 40°C (104°F). After about 40 minutes you are soaked, dehydrated and exhausted. It is hard to imagine doing this for 40 days with all your gear, including 40 liters of water for five days, on a two-wheeled trolley. But that is exactly what my traveling companions did.
I'm in the Nahud Desert, a vast expanse of sand and rocky wilderness in northern Saudi Arabia, to experience the almost unbearable heat and meet up with 20 other people who are part of an expedition. Deep ClimateHe is dedicated to understanding how humans respond to extreme situations. “The aim is to study how humans adapt to new kinds of environments,” he says. Christian Clotteleader of the expedition and director of the French Institute of Human Adaptation.
This problem becomes even more pressing as the climate gets warmer: even in the most optimistic scenarios, heatwaves exceeding 40°C, as observed in southern Europe and across the United States over the past few months, will become the norm in many parts of the world.
So the question of what happens to our brains and bodies, and how well the human physiology can handle extreme heat, is a question that matters to millions of people. “We're going to see large swaths of densely populated areas rise to unprecedented temperatures that nobody has seen in historical climates,” he said. Tim Renton He is a researcher at the University of Exeter in the UK and recently co-authored a research paper titled “…
Parts of the US experienced heatwaves during the day that could cause heatstroke, with temperatures rising by 2.5C (1.4C) due to global warming caused by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. World Weather Attribution, The calculations were made Thursday by a group of scientists conducting a rapid, non-peer-reviewed study of climate factors.
“It’s like an oven out here, there’s no way I could be here,” said Magarita Salazar Pérez, 82, who lives in Veracruz, Mexico, in her home without air conditioning. Temperatures in the Sonoran Desert reached 125 degrees Fahrenheit (51.9 Celsius) last week, making it the hottest day in Mexico’s history, said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central and co-author of the study.
And it was even worse at night, which is what made the heatwave so deadly, said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who is leading the team investigating its causes. Climate change has caused nighttime temperatures to rise by 2.9 degrees Celsius (1.6 degrees Fahrenheit), making extreme nighttime heat 200 times more likely, Otto said.
Salazar-Perez said there isn’t the cool nighttime air that people are used to, and doctors say lower nighttime temperatures are key to surviving the heatwave.
A man holds his head in the heat at the Cogra nursing home in Veracruz, Mexico, on June 16, 2024.Felix Marquez/AP
At least 125 people have been killed so far, according to the Global Weather Attribution Team.
“This is clearly related to climate change, the level of intensity that we’re seeing, these risks,” said Karina Izquierdo, urban adviser at the Mexico City-based Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center and co-author of the study.
Otto said what’s worrying about this heat wave, which is still heating up North America, is that it’s no longer unusual. Previous research from the group has shown that extremely extreme heat waves Not possible without climate changebut not this heat wave.
“So in that sense it’s not unusual from a meteorological standpoint, but the impacts were really bad,” Otto told The Associated Press in an interview.
“The changes over the last 20 years, which feel like yesterday, have been so dramatic,” Otto said. Her research shows that heat waves are four times more likely now than they were in 2000, when temperatures were nearly 1 degree Celsius (half a degree Celsius) cooler. “It seems so long ago, like another world.”
While other international groups of scientists, as well as global carbon emission reduction targets adopted by countries in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, have noted that warming has been increasing since the pre-industrial era in the mid-1800s, Otto said comparing what is happening now to the year 2000 is even more shocking.
“We’re seeing the baseline shift, and what was once extreme but rare is becoming more and more common,” said Carly Kenkel, dean of marine studies at the University of Southern California, who was not involved in the team’s investigation. She called the analysis a “logical conclusion based on the data.”
Jorge Moreno drinks flavored water while working at a construction site in Veracruz, Mexico on June 17, 2024. Felix Marquez/AP
The study looked at the five hottest days and nights across a wide swath of the continent, including Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Honduras. In most areas, the five days were from June 3 to 7, and the five nights were from June 5 to 9, but in some places, the peak heat began as early as May 26, Otto said.
For example, San Angelo, Texas, recorded a record 111 degrees (43.8 degrees Celsius) on June 4. Between June 2 and June 6, Corpus Christi Airport's nighttime temperatures never dropped below 80 degrees (26.7 degrees Celsius), setting a new nighttime temperature record, with two days where the temperature never dropped below 85 degrees (29.4 degrees Celsius), according to the National Weather Service.
Between June 1st and June 15th, more than 1,200 Highest daytime temperature record The United States saw a flurry of records being broken and tied, with nearly 1,800 overnight high temperature records set, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
The team used both current and historical temperature measurements to contrast what’s happening now with past heatwave conditions, then used a scientifically-accepted method of comparing a hypothetical simulation of a world without human-made climate change with current reality to calculate how much global warming contributed to the 2024 heatwave.
Winkley said the immediate meteorological cause is high pressure that was parked over central Mexico, blocking storms and clouds that brought cold air, then moved into the southwestern U.S. and is now bringing hot air to the eastern U.S. Tropical Storm Alberto The storm formed on Wednesday and is heading toward northern Mexico and southern Texas, where it is likely to bring rain and cause flooding.
The heatwave is “exacerbating existing inequalities.” Rich and poor Izquierdo said the inequality is stark in the Americas, and Kenkel agreed: Nighttime heat is accentuated because the ability to stay cool with central air conditioning depends on how affordable you are, Kenkel said.
So, Salazar-Perez was feeling very uncomfortable during this heatwave.
The Biden administration announced on Tuesday that the United States Climate Corps is a federal program focused on training young individuals in clean energy, environmental protection, and climate resilience. AmeriCorps, the federal agency overseeing the program, plans to swear in 9,000 members by the end of the month. Due to virtual meeting room limitations, the swearing-in will take place at multiple events over the next few weeks, with the next event scheduled for June 25.
“I want young people to understand the significance of this moment,” said Maggie Thomas, special assistant for climate change to President Joe Biden. “This is about addressing the climate crisis and empowering this generation to take charge of their future.”
Ultimately, 20,000 young people will participate in the program. Various paid positions are available through federal, state, and local partnerships with employment durations ranging from two months to over a year, all funded by the federal government.
The focus of these positions is on connecting vulnerable communities to renewable energy grids and supporting local community initiatives, such as securing grant funding and reducing wildfire risks in forests.
The White House views this program as a dual-purpose initiative to address immediate climate change impacts and equip young individuals with the necessary skills for careers in clean energy and climate-resilient industries.
The U.S. Climate Corps, founded by John F. Kennedy, emphasizes the importance of community involvement in climate action and offers multiple pathways for individuals to engage in environmental efforts.
This initiative, originating from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Civilian Conservation Corps, signifies a significant step toward combating climate change and creating a sustainable economy. President Biden’s executive order regarding climate crisis highlights the administration’s commitment to addressing environmental challenges.
For further information and opportunities to join the program, visit the official website.
Climate activists protest outside the Houses of Parliament in London in March.
Andrea Domeniconi/Alamy
This week, more than 400 climate scientists from UK research institutes published an open letterAhead of the general election on 4 July, he called on UK political parties to commit to stronger climate action in the next Parliament.
Their demands included a “credible” carbon reduction strategy for the country, during an election campaign where there has been little in-depth discussion about the UK's transition to net zero.
Why are scientists worried? After all, the UK has one of the most ambitious climate targets in the world – a legally binding target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 – and has halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990.
While great progress has been made in decarbonizing the electricity supply, with around half of all electricity now generated from zero-carbon sources, other sectors are lagging behind. The Committee on Climate Change, the UK government's climate advisers, say that outside the electricity sector, the rate of emissions reductions needs to quadruple over the next seven years for the UK to meet its commitment to cut emissions by 68% by 2030. I said in OctoberHe warned it was “unlikely” the UK would get there under current plans.
“There's a real sense of frustration in the climate science community,” he said. Emily Schuckberg “We are yet to see the level of response that is required,” said a Cambridge University researcher who co-authored the scientists' letter.
The slow progress means problems are piling up, waiting for the next administration to tackle them.
Transportation and Buildings
By the end of the decade, emissions from surface transport – roads, rail and ships – need to fall by around 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, four times the rate of reduction over the past decade. Electric car sales may be growing strongly, but sales of electric vans and trucks are sluggish, and the number of public charging points is not growing fast enough to keep up with the volume of electric vehicles travelling. Meanwhile, public transport use has fallen sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, It's not back to the previous level.
Getting the transport sector to net zero will require more than just convincing everyone to buy electric cars, Michael Pollitt The Cambridge researchers say that reducing the number and size of cars is a key part of the puzzle. “We need more…and electric vehicles.
When it comes to buildings, home heating is the biggest pain point. Around 23 million homes in the UK are heated by gas boilers. By the middle of the century, all of these homes will need to be heated with zero-carbon energy sources, and it is expected that most will switch to heat pumps.
But the pace of the transition is too slow: just 69,000 heat pumps will be installed in UK homes in 2022, far short of the target of 600,000 per year by 2028. Part of…addition, increasing the affordability and efficiency of heat pumps will be crucial for decarbonizing home heating.
It is urgent to solve these problems. Nick Air One Oxford professor who signed the open letter said that a gas boiler installed in 2035 would still be heating homes in 2050. “For heat pumps and cars, we need to be pretty much sorted by the early 2040s, which means we need to get very serious about it in the 2030s,” he said.
That's why the UK government's inaction over the last decade, when it should have been focusing on preparing industry for mass adoption, is so worrying.
Agriculture and Aviation
Beyond heat, power and transport, tougher choices lie ahead. For example, emissions from agriculture and land use have remained almost unchanged for a decade, but need to be reduced by 29% by 2035. Achieving these reductions will likely require actions…
“The biggest challenge is starting to implement policies and regulations that will affect people's daily lives.” Leo Mercer “If policies are not communicated well, people will react quite strongly,” said the professor at the London School of Economics.
Alongside its domestic challenges, the UK needs to rebuild its reputation on the international stage: under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the UK hosted the COP26 climate summit and led international coalitions on deforestation, methane and electric vehicles.
However, progress on climate change measures in the UK has slowed, cuts in international aid and climate diplomacy; Britain's international reputation has suffered, and the government's decisions to approve new fossil fuel projects in the UK while urging lower-income countries to “move away” from fossil fuels have also antagonized the British public.
Unless a country like the UK can demonstrate that net zero is achievable and desirable as a national strategy, it will face an uphill battle to persuade lower-income countries to cut emissions, which is why it is crucial the UK restores its reputation as a climate leader in the next parliament, he says.
Next year, countries are due to submit new commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. “So this is a pivotal moment for the international community,” she said. “This parliament will be crucial…cing in the 2030s,” he said.
What each party is proposing
So which party can take action on the scale needed to get the UK back on track? All the major parties agree on the need to reach net zero by mid-century, and Labour and the Conservatives are remarkably in agreement on the need for renewable energy, particularly offshore wind.
But Labour has made an eye-catching promise to deliver a fully decarbonised electricity grid by 2030. Adam Bell A former senior UK government official at Stonehaven, a British consultancy, said the target was “highly ambitious” and would push government agencies to the limits of their capabilities. [Labour] It could be even more ambitious.”
But for Eyre, a credible climate manifesto should also include ambitious targets in the areas where the UK is seriously off track: home energy efficiency, heat pump adoption, industrial emissions, land use, solar power and electric vehicles. “It's not a matter of doing one or two of them,” Eyre says. “We need to do them all.”
Many experts privately doubt that the major parties have policy programmes with the pace and scale needed to get to net zero by 2050. Absent that, looking for enthusiasm for the challenges ahead may be the next best way to gauge a party's credibility. In Eyre's eyes, the next UK government is embarking on a “10-year plan on the scale of the introduction of the steam engine.” “If you don't have a positive vision yourself, you're not going to sell it to the public,” he says.
Climate activists protest outside the Houses of Parliament in London in March.
Andrea Domeniconi/Alamy
This week, more than 400 climate scientists from UK research institutes published an open letterAhead of the general election on 4 July, he called on UK political parties to commit to stronger climate action in the next Parliament.
Their demands included a “credible” carbon reduction strategy for the country, during an election campaign where there has been little in-depth discussion about the UK's transition to net zero.
Why are scientists worried? After all, the UK has one of the most ambitious climate targets in the world – a legally binding target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 – and has halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990.
While great progress has been made in decarbonizing the electricity supply, with around half of all electricity now generated from zero-carbon sources, other sectors are lagging behind. The Committee on Climate Change, the UK government's climate advisers, say that outside the electricity sector, the rate of emissions reductions needs to quadruple over the next seven years for the UK to meet its commitment to cut emissions by 68% by 2030. I said in OctoberHe warned it was “unlikely” the UK would get there under current plans.
“There's a real sense of frustration in the climate science community,” he said. Emily Schuckberg “We are yet to see the level of response that is required,” said a Cambridge University researcher who co-authored the scientists' letter.
The slow progress means problems are piling up, waiting for the next administration to tackle them.
Transportation and Buildings
By the end of the decade, emissions from surface transport – roads, rail and ships – need to fall by around 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, four times the rate of reduction over the past decade. Electric car sales may be growing strongly, but sales of electric vans and trucks are sluggish, and the number of public charging points is not growing fast enough to keep up with the volume of electric vehicles travelling. Meanwhile, public transport use has fallen sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, It's not back to the previous level.
Getting the transport sector to net zero will require more than just convincing everyone to buy electric cars, Michael Pollitt The Cambridge researchers say that reducing the number and size of cars is a key part of the puzzle. “We need more radical thinking about intercity transport, including prioritising lanes for small vehicles and dramatically reducing the size and weight of vehicles,” they say. “If people can travel in significantly smaller cars and public transport, that's the route to net-zero transport.”
When it comes to buildings, home heating is the biggest pain point. Around 23 million homes in the UK are heated by gas boilers. By the middle of the century, all of these homes will need to be heated with zero-carbon energy sources, and it is expected that most will switch to heat pumps.
But the pace of the transition is too slow: just 69,000 heat pumps will be installed in UK homes in 2022, far short of the target of 600,000 per year by 2028. Part of the problem is finances: heat pumps are much more expensive to install than gas boilers, and they are often more expensive to run as well, due to an additional levy on grid costs. “We absolutely have to get the price of heat pumps down,” Porritt says. “Unless the price of heat pumps comes down significantly, they will be a major obstacle to decarbonising heating.”
It is urgent to solve these problems. Nick Air One Oxford professor who signed the open letter said that a gas boiler installed in 2035 would still be heating homes in 2050. “For heat pumps and cars, we need to be pretty much sorted by the early 2040s, which means we need to get very serious about it in the 2030s,” he said.
That's why the UK government's inaction over the last decade, when it should have been focusing on preparing industry for mass adoption, is so worrying. “We know what needs to be done,” Eyre says, “but the last two years in particular have been a period of no real action being taken.”
Agriculture and Aviation
Beyond heat, power and transport, tougher choices lie ahead. For example, emissions from agriculture and land use have remained almost unchanged for a decade, but need to be reduced by 29% by 2035. Achieving these reductions will likely require actions to change the way people eat. Similarly, reducing aviation emissions will require actions to curb demand, such as taxes on frequent flyers.
“The biggest challenge is starting to implement policies and regulations that will affect people's daily lives.” Leo Mercer “If policies are not communicated well, people will react quite strongly,” said the professor at the London School of Economics.
Alongside its domestic challenges, the UK needs to rebuild its reputation on the international stage: under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the UK hosted the COP26 climate summit and led international coalitions on deforestation, methane and electric vehicles.
However, progress on climate change measures in the UK has slowed, cuts in international aid and climate diplomacy; Britain's international reputation has suffered, and the government's decisions to approve new fossil fuel projects in the UK while urging lower-income countries to “move away” from fossil fuels have also antagonized the British public.
Unless a country like the UK can demonstrate that net zero is achievable and desirable as a national strategy, it will face an uphill battle to persuade lower-income countries to cut emissions, which is why it is crucial the UK restores its reputation as a climate leader in the next parliament, he says. Katerina Brandmeyer At Imperial College London.
Next year, countries are due to submit new commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. “So this is a pivotal moment for the international community,” she said. “This parliament will be crucial not only to ensuring delivery in the UK, but also to raising ambition globally.”
What each party is proposing
So which party can take action on the scale needed to get the UK back on track? All the major parties agree on the need to reach net zero by mid-century, and Labour and the Conservatives are remarkably in agreement on the need for renewable energy, particularly offshore wind.
But Labour has made an eye-catching promise to deliver a fully decarbonised electricity grid by 2030. Adam Bell A former senior UK government official at Stonehaven, a British consultancy, said the target was “highly ambitious” and would push government agencies to the limits of their capabilities. [Labour] It could be even more ambitious.”
But for Eyre, a credible climate manifesto should also include ambitious targets in the areas where the UK is seriously off track: home energy efficiency, heat pump adoption, industrial emissions, land use, solar power and electric vehicles. “It's not a matter of doing one or two of them,” Eyre says. “We need to do them all.”
Many experts privately doubt that the major parties have policy programmes with the pace and scale needed to get to net zero by 2050. Absent that, looking for enthusiasm for the challenges ahead may be the next best way to gauge a party's credibility. In Eyre's eyes, the next UK government is embarking on a “10-year plan on the scale of the introduction of the steam engine.” “If you don't have a positive vision yourself, you're not going to sell it to the public,” he says.
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