The Atlantic hurricane season has yet to commence, but forecasters are already raising concerns. Indeed, the 2025 season, which officially spans from June 1st to November 30th, is anticipated to be remarkably busy.
As per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the likelihood of below-average activity stands at 60%. They foresee up to 19 named storms, with as many as 10 hurricanes and between 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Meanwhile, private forecasting firm Accuweather has a similar outlook, but adds another concerning prediction: up to six storms could directly impact the U.S. coastline.
This news comes on the heels of the destruction wrought by Hurricanes Helen and Milton in 2024. “Overall, it looks like it will be an even busier year,” said Alex Dasilva, Accuweather’s lead hurricane expert, to BBC Science Focus.
So, what gives scientists such confidence? While accurately predicting the timing and location of a storm remains elusive, there is increasing clarity regarding the broader factors that influence each season. This year, numerous climate indicators are aligning unfavorably.
The Atlantic is Storing Energy – A Lot of It
Hurricanes derive their power from warm ocean waters, and this year, the Atlantic is exceptionally heated.
“Sea surface temperatures are again significantly above average,” explains Dasilva. While 2025 may not match the record warmth of 2023 and 2024, conditions across most of the Atlantic Basin remain notably high.
However, it’s not just about surface temperatures; the ocean’s heat content plays a crucial role in driving the most formidable storms. This metric reflects how deeply the warm water extends beneath the surface.
“It’s truly impressive,” notes Dasilva. “When you’re at the surface, the water feels pleasantly warm. Now, imagine it extending hundreds of meters below in a region like the Western Caribbean, where mid-season temperatures can reach 80°F [27°C].”
The depth matters. Hot water serves as high-octane fuel for hurricanes; the deeper it extends, the more energy available for storms. This explains the “rapid strengthening” observed in many recent hurricanes, which can intensify dramatically within just a few hours.
“When you observe a storm rapidly intensifying, it’s something that explodes—because it encounters the highest oceanic heat, particularly off the Gulf Coast, Western Caribbean, or the southeast coast,” Dasilva adds.
Scientists now recognize that climate-driven ocean heat is on the rise yearly. As our planet warms, much of the additional heat gets absorbed into the ocean, creating a reservoir of deep energy for storms to utilize.
This doesn’t automatically mean more hurricanes overall, but those that do form are more likely to rapidly gain strength and achieve greater intensity.
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Changing Pacific Patterns Could Elevate Season End
The Pacific will serve as the puppeteer while the Atlantic supplies the fuel.
Key players include El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the natural cycle of warming and cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This cycle has a substantial influence on hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
A comprehensive book could be written about ENSO, so let’s summarize it briefly. During El Niño, warm waters from the tropical Pacific migrate eastward toward the Americas. During La Niña, the reverse holds true, with warm waters moving westward toward Asia and cooler waters prevailing near the Americas.
These shifts not only affect the Pacific but also change wind patterns worldwide, including in the Atlantic, either facilitating or hindering hurricane development.
At present, the Pacific is in the ENSO neutral phase, indicating that the warm waters are balanced. However, this isn’t necessarily good news.
“Research indicates that La Niña typically produces more storms, but neutral years are nearly as active,” says Dasilva. “The only time we’ve seen a significant reduction in storms is during El Niño.”
Why is this the case? During El Niño, robust upper winds from the Pacific often inhibit storms as they form in the Atlantic. Conversely, during neutral or La Niña years, these winds lessen, enabling hurricanes to form and strengthen more easily.
Moreover, a return of La Niña conditions later this year could set the stage for a busier end to the season.
“There’s a possibility for La Niña to resurge later in the season,” Dasilva notes. “If that happens, the latter part of the season could see heightened activity, so it’s important to keep a close eye on developments.”
With recent seasons demonstrating a trend towards more frequent storms, this increased warmth and favorable atmospheric conditions are notable.
Storm Trajectories Depend on Who’s at the Helm
While ocean temperature and ENSO conditions are crucial players, they aren’t the only factors at play.
Features such as the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure system—dominant over the Central Atlantic—greatly influence the final destination of storms once they form.
“This high-pressure zone in the Atlantic deflects storms around it,” Dasilva explains. “Most storms ultimately curve away towards the ocean and head toward Europe, but if this high pressure is particularly strong, it can stretch and push storms westward.”
However, the Bermuda-Azores system is dynamic and can shift throughout the season, making it challenging to accurately predict storm trajectories beyond a few days. “These dynamics can change rapidly, often hinging on timing,” Dasilva adds.
This season is also impacted by waters off West Africa.
Many of the most powerful Atlantic storms initiate as clusters of disturbed thunderstorms sweeping off the coasts of Africa as summer ends. In fact, around 85% of major hurricanes originate here.
However, this system is sensitive. Last year, unanticipated cooling off the West African coasts near the equator disrupted the jet stream, impeding the northward movement of storms and curtailing their development.
“Many believed the Atlantic was broken,” Dasilva said. The culprit was a pattern known as the Atlantic Niño, an obscure climate cycle that paradoxically has an opposing effect on hurricane activity compared to its namesake in the Pacific.
Dasilva anticipates a similar mid-summer slowdown again this year, but this doesn’t signify the season’s end.
Inland Impacts
Another trend affecting the Atlantic hurricane season is the increasing influence of storms further inland.
A study published in Nature revealed that hurricanes making landfall have been slowing their rate of weakening over the past 50 years, with a 94% decrease in weakening rates. Essentially, this means that as storms travel inland, they often retain their strength, increasing the risk of damage far from coastal areas.
In 2024, Hurricane Helen struck Florida, triggering deadly floods in the southern Appalachian mountains. The storm was responsible for 94 fatalities and contributed to over 100 additional deaths. Furthermore, Hurricane Beryl spawned a tornado in western New York after making landfall in Texas.
“2024 was one of the most costly hurricane seasons on record, largely due to inland effects,” Dasilva states. “It’s critical for those living inland to monitor hurricane forecasts as closely as those living on the coast.”
Thus, whether you reside on the coast or inland, science signals a clear message: conditions are lining up for enhanced activity in 2025. Stay alert to forecasts.
About Our Experts
Alex Dasilva is a seasoned meteorologist and hurricane forecaster at Accuweather, specializing in long-range predictions and tropical weather. He currently serves as Accuweather’s lead hurricane predictor and frequently appears in broadcasts and live events to inform the media and the public about upcoming significant storm events.
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Source: www.sciencefocus.com
