The robotic Soviet spacecraft has been floating in space for 53 years. It will return to Earth later this week.
Launched in March 1972, the Kosmos-482 was meant to land on the dynamic surface of Venus, marking the ninth mission in the Soviet Venella program. However, a malfunction left it orbiting Earth, where it has been circling ever since.
“This artifact was slated for Venus 50 years ago, lost and forgotten for half a century,” stated Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. He pointed to the Public Catalog of space objects, adding, “Although it’s headed for the wrong planet, it will still create a moment of atmospheric entry.”
Having a protective heat shield, the spacecraft weighs roughly 1,050 pounds and is built to endure its descent through Venus’s harsh atmosphere, meaning it may survive the plunge and reach at least partway to the surface.
Nonetheless, the chance of ground impact is minimal.
“I’m not concerned—I’m not warning my friends to hide,” said Darren McKnight, Advanced Technology Fellow at Leo Labs, a company tracking orbital objects, which monitors Kosmos-482 six times daily. “We typically see a large object re-enter Earth’s atmosphere about once a week.”
When is Kosmos-482 expected to return to Earth?
The estimates are updated daily, but the current anticipated re-entry date is Friday or Saturday. The New York Times will provide updated estimates as they arise.
According to the Aerospace Corporation, which monitors space debris, there is a predicted re-entry window of 12:42 AM Eastern Time on May 10, with a margin of error of 19 hours. Window Calculation
Marco Langroek, a satellite tracker at Delft Institute of Technology, has been monitoring Cosmos-482 for several years and estimates a re-entry around 4:37 AM Eastern Time on May 10, with similar uncertainties.
Where will it land?
The exact landing spot remains unknown. “And we won’t know until after it happens,” Dr. McDowell noted.
The Kosmos-482 travels at over 17,000 mph, and atmospheric friction slows it down rapidly, making timing crucial; even a slight miscalculation could land it in a completely different location.
What is certain is that the orbit of Kosmos-482 encompasses latitudes between 52°N and 52°S, covering large sections of Africa, Australia, North America, and much of Europe and Asia.
“There are three outcomes when an object re-enters: splashing, destruction, or injury,” Dr. McKnight remarked.
“A splash is ideal,” he added, noting that much of the Earth is ocean, while the undesired outcomes would be “destruction” or “injury.”
Will the spacecraft withstand the impact?
If Kosmos-482 endures the re-entry, it will impact at approximately 150 miles per hour, provided its heat shield remains intact. “I doubt much will remain after that,” Dr. McDowell stated. “Imagine crashing a car into a wall at 150 mph; not much would be left.”
If it returns over a populated area during nighttime, observers may see Kosmos-482 as bright streaks racing across the sky.
Should any part of the spacecraft survive the descent, it will legally be owned by Russia.
“Under international law, any found object must be returned,” explained Michelle Hanlon, Executive Director of the Aerospace Law Center at the University of Mississippi. “Russia is recognized as the registered owner and retains jurisdiction over the objects.”
How can I identify this object?
Roughly 25 years ago, Dr. McDowell sifted through Norad’s catalog of some 25,000 orbital objects, attempting to identify each one. He often found the answer was, “this is debris from a rather dull rocket explosion.”
However, one object, 6073, stood out; launched from Kazakhstan in 1972, it traveled between 124 and 6,000 miles from Earth in a highly elliptical orbit.
Analyzing its trajectory and dimensions led Dr. McDowell to theorize it was likely the much-anticipated Kosmos-482 lander rather than merely debris from a failed launch, a hypothesis confirmed by multiple ground observations and recently declassified Soviet documents.
Source: www.nytimes.com
